Raphael Stevens

U.S. prosecutors on Tuesday recommended an above-guidance, 36-month sentence for former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.
Zhao should serve a higher sentence than suggested under advisory guidelines to “reflect the gravity of his crimes,” prosecutors said.
Zhao stepped down as Binance’s CEO in November last year after reaching a plea deal with the U.S. Department of Justice.

Changpeng Zhao, founder and CEO of Binance, attends the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris on June 16, 2022.
Benoit Tessier | Reuters

U.S. prosecutors are seeking an above-guidance sentence of 36 months for the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Binance on charges of enabling money laundering, according to a sentencing memorandum out late Tuesday.
The memorandum, which was filed with the court for the western district of Washington, states that Zhao should serve a higher sentence that suggested under advisory guidelines to “reflect the gravity of his crimes.”

Under advisory guidelines, Zhao’s sentencing would come in at a range of 12 to 18 months in prison.
“A custodial sentence of 36 months—twice the high end of the Guidelines range—would reflect the seriousness of the offense, promote respect for law, afford adequate deterrence, and be sufficient but not greater than necessary to achieve the goals of sentencing,” U.S. prosecutors said.
Zhao is accused of wilfully failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program as required by the Bank Secrecy Act, and of effectively allowing Binance to process transactions involving proceeds of unlawful activity, including transactions between Americans and individuals in sanctions jurisdictions.
Binance has separately been sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over the alleged mishandling of customer assets and the operation of an illegal, unregistered exchange in the U.S.

The U.S., which separately accuses Binance and Zhao of violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act and sanctions on Iran, ordered Binance to pay $4.3 billion in fines and forfeiture. Zhao agreed to pay a $50 million fine.

Zhao stepped down as Binance’s CEO in November last year after reaching this plea and was replaced by the former Abu Dhabi markets regulator’s chief, Richard Teng.
Zhao was not immediately available for comment when contacted via social media platform X. Binance has yet to return a request for comment when contacted by CNBC.

‘Unprecedented scale’ of financial crime

Prosecutors say that Zhao violated U.S. law on an “unprecedented scale,” and that he had a “deliberate disregard” for Binance’s legal responsibilities.
In the memorandum of Tuesday, prosecutors said that, under Zhao’s control, Binance operated on a “Wild West” model.

“Zhao bet that he would not get caught, and that if he did, the consequences would not be as serious as the crime,” the memorandum stated.
“But Zhao was caught, and now the Court will decide what price Zhao should pay for his crimes.”
Zhao’s official sentencing is expected to take place on April 30. More

China’s state-directed economy may be creating the conditions for a new wave of bond defaults that could come as soon as next year, according to an S&P Global Ratings report released Tuesday.
“The real thing to watch for policymakers is whether the current directives are creating distorted incentives in the economy,” Charles Chang, greater China country lead at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.
Bond defaults dropped in most sectors last year except for tech services, consumer and retail, S&P found.

Residential buildings under construction at the Phoenix Palace project, developed by Country Garden Holdings Co., in Heyuan, Guangdong province, China in September 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s state-directed economy may be creating the conditions for a new wave of bond defaults that could come as soon as next year, according to an S&P Global Ratings report released Tuesday.
It would be the third round of corporate defaults in about a decade, the ratings agency pointed out.

It comes against a backdrop of extremely few defaults in China amid concerns about overall growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
“The real thing to watch for policymakers is whether the current directives are creating distorted incentives in the economy,” Charles Chang, greater China country lead at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.
China’s corporate bond default rate fell to 0.2% in 2023, the lowest in at least 8 years and far below the global rate of about 2.6%, S&P data showed.
“To a certain extent this is not a good sign, because we see this divergence as something that’s not the result of the functioning of markets,” Chang said. “We’ve seen directives or guidance from the government in the past year to discourage defaults in the bond market.”
“The question is: When the guidance to avoid the defaults in the bond market [ends], what happens to the bond market?” he said, noting that’s something to watch out for next year.

Chinese authorities have in recent years emphasized the need to prevent financial risks.
But heavy-handed approaches to tackling problems, especially in the real estate sector, can have unintended consequences.
The property market slumped after Beijing’s crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt in the last three years. The once-massive sector has dragged down the economy, while the property sector shows few signs of turning around.
Real estate led the latest wave of defaults between 2020 and 2024, according to S&P. Prior to that, their analysis showed that industrials and commodity firms led defaults in 2015 to 2019.
“The bigger issue for the government is whether the real estate market can stabilize and property prices can stabilize,” Chang said. “That can potentially ease off some of the negative wealth effects that we’ve been seeing since the middle of last year.”
Much of household wealth in China is in real estate, rather than other financial assets such as stocks.

Economic growth concerns

Bond defaults dropped in most sectors last year except for tech services, consumer and retail, S&P found.
“That flags potential vulnerabilities to the slowing growth we’re seeing right now,” Chang said.
China’s economy grew by 5.2% last year, and Beijing has set a target of around 5% in GDP growth for 2024. Analysts’ forecasts are generally near or below that pace, with expectations for further slowdown in the coming years from the double-digit growth of past decades.
Large levels of public, private and hidden debt in China have long raised concerns about the potential for systemic financial risks.
China’s debt problems, however, are not as pressing as the need for Beijing to address real estate issues in a broader “comprehensive strategy,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the fiscal affairs department at the International Monetary Fund, said at a press briefing last week.
He said other aspects of the strategy are China’s emphasis on innovation and productivity growth, as well as the need to strengthen social safety nets so that households will be more willing to spend.
It remains to be seen whether other sectors can offset the property sector’s drag on the economy, and bolster growth overall.
UBS on Tuesday upgraded MSCI China stocks to overweight due to better corporate earnings performance which are not affected by property market trends.
“The largest stocks in the China index have been generally fine on earnings/fundamentals. So China underperformance is purely due to valuation collapse,” Sunil Tirumalai, chief GEM equity strategist at UBS, said in a note. “What makes us more positive now on earnings are the early signs of pick up in consumption.”
The bank also upgraded its outlook on Hong Kong stocks.
On why UBS’s changed its view on China valuations, Tirumalai pointed to a “growing trend of China companies giving positive surprise on dividends/buybacks.”
“This higher visibility of shareholder returns can be useful if global markets get more worried on geopolitics, and in higher-for-longer scenarios. We would keep an eye on the next leg of market reforms,” he added. More

Chinese smartphone company Xiaomi’s new car is selling better than expected, putting it closer to break-even despite undercutting Tesla’s Model 3 on price.
When Xiaomi launched its SU7 electric sedan, CEO Lei Jun said the company would be selling each car at a loss.
But on Tuesday, he estimated gross profit margin of around 5% to 10% for Xiaomi’s auto business.
Xiaomi has invested heavily in its electric car venture as Lei has long-term ambitions to become one of the top five automakers in the world.

The Xiaomi SU7 on display at the Mobile World Congress 2024.
Arjun Kharpal | CNBC

BEIJING — Chinese smartphone company Xiaomi’s new electric vehicle is selling better than expected, putting it closer to break-even despite undercutting Tesla’s Model 3 on price.
Xiaomi has received more than 70,000 orders for its electric SU7 sedan as of April 20, close to the company’s original full-year target for deliveries this year, CEO Lei Jun told investors Tuesday.

The company now aims to deliver 100,000 of its new EV this year, he said.
Xiaomi released the SU7 in late March with a price about $4,000 less than Tesla’s Model 3, and has started deliveries. The Chinese smartphone company is set to livestream a car update at 9:20 a.m. on Thursday, as the Beijing auto show kicks off.
“Breakeven would be realized if annual sales reach 300[k]-400k,” Citi analysts said in a report, citing the investor day. They raised their autos segment gross profit margin forecast to 6% this year, versus a 10% loss previously expected.

The Citi analysts raised their earnings per share forecast by 25% this year, and now expect Xiaomi to ship 100,000 cars this year, 200,000 next year and 280,000 in 2026.
For context, Tesla China sold more than 600,000 cars last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Li Auto, which technically sells mostly hybrids, sold 376,000 cars last year, while Nio sold just over 160,000 cars last year, the data showed.

Li Auto had a gross margin of 23.5% in the fourth quarter last year, while Nio’s gross margin was 7.5%, both up from the year-ago period.
Tesla’s gross margin has successively declined over the past five quarters to 17.4% in the first three months of this year. Gross margin figures don’t account for operating expenses.
When Xiaomi launched the SU7 last month, Lei said the company would be selling each car at a loss.
But on Tuesday, he estimated gross profit margin of around 5% to 10% for Xiaomi’s auto business, and noted that sales are greater than expected, while expressing thanks to suppliers on reducing costs.
“We are currently in discussions with supply chain partners on how to increase production capacity and further support on costs,” he said, according to a CNBC translation of a Chinese-language investor day transcript provided by the company.

Sticking to China for now

Xiaomi has invested heavily in its electric car venture as Lei has long-term ambitions to become one of the top five automakers in the world.
But for the next three years, the company plans to fully focus on the domestic market, he told investors Tuesday.
Lei pointed out that Xiaomi already does business in more than 100 countries.
“We have a foundation of global influence and Xiaomi fans,” Lei said. “When we are ready to enter the global market, it should come naturally.”
Xiaomi also has plans for its next electric car, an SUV, set to be released in the second half of 2025, Chinese business news site 36kr reported Wednesday, citing sources.
Lei declined to share details when asked about SUV plans on Tuesday.
“I think one of the reasons for the success of SU7’s launch was its confidentiality,” he added. More

The dollar is looking increasingly formidable. As American growth has stayed strong and investors have scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, money has flooded into the country’s markets—and the greenback has shot up. It has risen by 4% this year, measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, and the fundamentals point to further appreciation. With a presidential election looming, and both Democrats and Republicans determined to promote American manufacturing, the world is on the verge of a difficult new period of strong-dollar geopolitics.This situation is made still more difficult by the fact that the currency’s strength reflects weakness elsewhere. By the end of 2023, America’s economy was 8% larger than at the end of 2019. Those of Britain, France, Germany and Japan each grew by less than 2% during the same period. The yen is at a 34-year low against the dollar. The euro has dropped to $1.07 from $1.10 at the start of the year (see chart 1). Some traders are now betting that the pair will reach parity by the beginning of next year.Chart: The EconomistShould Donald Trump win in November, the scene is therefore set for a fight. A strong dollar tends to raise the price of American exports and lower the price of imports, which would widen the country’s persistent trade deficit—a bugbear of Mr Trump’s for many decades. Robert Lighthizer, the architect of tariffs against China during Mr Trump’s time in the White House, wants to weaken the dollar, according to Politico, a news website. President Joe Biden has made no public pronouncements on the currency, but a strong dollar complicates his manufacturing agenda.Elsewhere, a mighty greenback is good for exporters that have costs denominated in other currencies. But high American interest rates and a strong dollar generate imported inflation, which is now exacerbated by relatively high oil prices. In addition, companies that have borrowed in dollars face steeper repayments. On April 18th Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned about the impact of these developments on global financial stability.Many countries have ample foreign-exchange reserves that they could sell to bolster their currencies: Japan has $1.3trn, India $643bn and South Korea $419bn. Yet any relief would be temporary. Although sales slowed the strengthening of the dollar in 2022, when the Fed began raising interest rates, they did not stop it. Central banks and finance ministries are loth to waste their holdings on fruitless fights.Another option is international co-ordination to halt the greenback’s climb. The start of this was on display on April 16th, when the finance ministers of America, Japan and South Korea expressed concern about the slump of the yen and won. This may be the precursor to more intervention—in the form of joint sales of foreign-exchange reserves—to prevent the two Asian currencies from weakening further.But as much as these countries may want to be on the same page, economics is unavoidably pulling them apart. After all, yen and won weakness is driven by the gap in interest rates between America and other countries. South Korea’s two-year government bonds offer a return of around 3.5%, and Japan’s just 0.3%, while American Treasuries maturing at the same time offer 5% (see chart 2). If interest rates stay markedly higher in America, investors seeking returns face a straightforward choice—and their decisions will buttress the dollar.Chart: The EconomistThen there are countries with which America is less likely to co-operate. According to Goldman Sachs, a bank, China saw $39bn or so in foreign-exchange outflows in March as investors fled the country’s languishing economy—the fourth most of any month since 2016. The yuan has weakened steadily against the dollar since the beginning of the year, and more rapidly from mid-March, since when the dollar has risen from 7.18 yuan to 7.25. Bank of America expects it to reach 7.45 by September, when America’s election campaign will be in full flow. That would put the yuan at its weakest since 2007, providing a boost to China’s government’s latest export drive. Cheap Chinese electric vehicles may be about to become even cheaper, infuriating American politicians.Even protectionists in America may be willing to overlook allies’ weak currencies, at least for a time. They are less likely to for China. This raises the risk of further tariffs and sanctions, and maybe even the return of China to America’s list of currency manipulators. So long as America’s economy outperforms, the dollar is likely to remain strong. And so long as American politicians see that as a cause for concern, trade tensions will rise. ■ More