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This article is an on-site version of our Trade Secrets newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Monday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newslettersWelcome to Trade Secrets, those of you not enjoying an Easter Monday break. Today we examine what solid and lasting gains Donald Trump has got so far out of his strategy of negotiating deals with a tariff gun at his trading partners’ heads (none) and what he’s likely to get (probably not much). Also, the evidence is mounting daily that US-China trade is, unsurprisingly, in serious trouble. Charted Waters, the section in which we examine the data behind world trade, is on cocoa prices.Get in touch. Email me at alan.beattie@ft.comBabbling about bowling ballsTHIS JUST IN: Trump has no consistent strategy on trade and is bad at negotiating. Anyone who continues to think his tariff strategy is all a cunning plan should read the Wall Street Journal’s account of the so-called “pause” in additional bilateral tariffs, in which Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and commerce secretary Howard Lutnick literally had to wait until chief China hawk Peter Navarro was elsewhere in the White House before getting Trump to sign off on it, the usual Topkapi Palace vibe.Trump has made some obvious tactical mistakes. As the Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen points out here (also argued by my FT colleague Gideon Rachman), by picking a fight with China, Trump has made the strategic error of cutting off trade with a key source of inputs for the US economy. (I’m a bit less concerned about critical minerals than commentariat consensus seems to be, but I’ll get into that in future pieces.)Trump’s caprice, allegedly designed to sow confusion among trading partners, is likely to make them shy away from doing binding deals as well. Why make agreements with someone who can’t even keep his story straight? Politico reports that Trump’s strategy to force China to the table is to offer a bunch of deals to other east Asian countries, cutting Beijing out of supply chains to compel it to negotiate with the US. Predictably, China is warning those countries against agreeing. Leaving that aside, why would governments make deals just to be used as leverage to strengthen the US-China trading relationship at their expense? If these governments do give Trump anything in talks, they’ll try to make up a fancy-looking gift basket that actually comprises some dusty old tchotchkes they’ve scavenged from the back of the cupboard. The US sounds hopeful about a deal with Japan. (Mind you, it’s been sounding hopeful for a while on that subject now, with the Japanese sounding much cooler.) But the deal doesn’t sound transformative. Nikkei here is reporting that Japan might create loopholes in its car safety regime for US imports. But it’s likely to be the same minor stuff it already offered in the Trans-Pacific Partnership that Trump pulled out of in 2017.Trump went on a rant over the weekend about trade barriers, mentioning the Japanese “bowling ball test”, which is something he’s gone on about before.This might be slightly less raving than it sounds and revealing of a genuine issue, if hardly one of unfair trade. As far as we can tell, it’s probably a reference to the fact that, relative to the US’s idiosyncratic standards, the international car safety rules that Japan uses focus on the danger to pedestrians as well as the car’s occupants. There’s a test in which a weight designed to represent a pedestrian’s head is fired at a car hood (“bonnet” for Brits) to find out how much give there is. A hood that absorbs some of the impact rather than remaining rigid will cause less injury. (Hence, Trump’s assertion here that the test fails if it creates a dent has it exactly backwards.)This in turn reflects a broader phenomenon, this son of a former senior safety engineer writes. The US opted out of a bunch of regulatory regimes decades ago — in this case the UNECE vehicle safety standards, which began in 1958. It’s one of the things that hampers US car and other manufacturers selling abroad (something I wrote about in last week’s column). A Cybertruck was rightly seized and impounded by the British police earlier this year. Cybertrucks are banned in the UK, partly for the danger they pose to pedestrians.As it happens, successive US administrations — Bill Clinton’s, George W Bush’s, Joe Biden’s — did work on aligning international vehicle safety standards. Following an initiative of Biden’s transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, the US drafted regulation on pedestrian head protection (here). I’m guessing it won’t go much further.If Trump’s big achievements are likely to include minor concessions in safety tests the US was already offered a decade ago — which won’t affect the fact that the big three US manufacturers don’t make cars Japanese consumers want anyway — then sure, offer him that. Whatever keeps him happy.The bad news starts to mountSo what news from the real world of trade in the form of parcels, containers, ships and aeroplanes? And could the Trump administration contrive to find a way to damage things further? Answers, respectively: “really not good”, and “yes, but could be worse”.The news of US-China disruptions as a result of Trump keeps piling up. Thanks to the postponed abolition of the $800 de minimis tariff exemption, supposedly now due on May 2, Hong Kong’s post office will no longer send parcels to the US. DHL is suspending deliveries to the US of parcels worth more than $800 because of increased paperwork. Ford has stopped exports of some cars from the US to China because of Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs. A Boeing jet intended for use by a Chinese airline was returned to the US on Saturday.The word from the shipping industry is that there is, unsurprisingly, a collapse in demand for container space to the US from China. Ryan Petersen, chief executive of the global logistics company Flexport, said last week that in the week since the tariffs hit, ocean freight bookings from China were down about 50 per cent across the industry. Fifty. Per. Cent.A chunk of this is shifting to Vietnam-US routes instead, which he says his company has seen rise above the China-US trade in size for the first time. But as Freightos, the digital freight booking platform, showed in a survey of small US importers, the uncertainty is crippling for American businesses.There was one moderately good, or at least not disastrous, piece of news on the container-shipping front last week. You may recall the US trade representative’s office has been mulling plans for hefty fees of up to $1.5mn per US port call for ships built in China or operated by Chinese companies. This wheeze, supposedly aimed at building up the US merchant fleet, was a poisoned chalice handed to it by the Biden administration. The World Shipping Council reckoned the original plans would have doubled the cost of shipping exports.The proposals published last week by USTR, which will now go out for consultation, are much more modest. They are based on the amount of cargo rather than a flat fee per ship, and levied per single ship voyage rather than on each port call. It’s still a bad idea, but at least it’s not as wantonly destructive as first planned. I guess that counts as a result these days.Charted watersAn Easter-themed chart shows that cocoa futures, although they’re still high on a decade-long view, have come down sharply since the episodes of woe-is-us globalisation-is-dying overreaction over the past couple of years. My contacts in the child world report that chocolate remains widely available.Trade linksThe FT looks at the international threat from Chinese controls on rare earth sales.The think-tank Bruegel looks at how Trump’s tariffs will affect Europe.A lovely FT piece on how US tariffs are affecting goods being sold in New York’s Chinatown.In an apparent sign that the US is deliberately trying to lose the global battle for influence with China, the New York Times reports that the Trump administration is considering shutting most of its operations in Africa.ICYMI, here is last week’s Q&A I did with two FT colleagues on Trump and the new world order.Trade Secrets is edited by Harvey NriapiaRecommended newsletters for youChris Giles on Central Banks — Vital news and views on what central banks are thinking, inflation, interest rates and money. Sign up hereFT Swamp Notes — Expert insight on the intersection of money and power in US politics. Sign up here More

This article is an on-site version of our Moral Money newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered three times a week. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters.Visit our Moral Money hub for all the latest ESG news, opinion and analysis from around the FT Welcome back. The World Bank and IMF spring meetings, which kick off today in Washington, offer a valuable chance for economic and development finance experts to take stock of an extraordinarily turbulent few months. The Trump turmoil is threatening the Bretton Woods institutions themselves in very direct ways, as I highlight below. Also today, Patrick has an update on how the US tariff shock is rippling through the clean energy sector. Thanks for reading. — Simon MundyJoin global leaders in business, finance and policy on 21-22 May for the Climate & Impact Summit, taking place in London and online. As a newsletter subscriber, you can register for a free digital pass here or secure a discount on your in-person pass here.multilateral development banks Banga strikes pragmatic tone on climate as Trump threat loomsThe sword of Damocles has never hung so heavy over the World Bank’s annual spring meeting. Since the body’s foundation in 1944, the US has been its driving force and biggest shareholder. But in February, President Donald Trump ordered secretary of state Marco Rubio to conduct a review on whether the US should withdraw from intergovernmental organisations. This stoked fears about a potential exit from the World Bank and IMF — which had been circulating since the Heritage Foundation’s controversial Project 2025 manifesto, a blueprint for Trump’s second term, called for such a move. So it’s hardly surprising that World Bank president Ajay Banga has been striking an amenable tone in recent weeks, using public engagements to stress the body’s pragmatic approach to its work, and openness to discussion with the Trump administration. This has put the World Bank’s climate policies firmly in the spotlight. Banga took over at the World Bank in June 2023 following the exit of Trump appointee David Malpass, who had faced growing public pressure over his supposed lack of enthusiasm for climate finance. Banga swiftly adopted a different tack, stressing the need for the World Bank to address the threats that climate change poses to the lower-income countries that it supports. Analysts — notably, the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance — have said that scaled-up action from the World Bank and other multilateral development banks will be crucial if the world is to meet the Paris agreement goals on limiting climate change.During his first months in charge, Banga promised that climate finance — from renewable energy to disaster resilience — would account for 45 per cent of the bank’s lending by 2025. In recent remarks, he’s indicated that this commitment will stand — but perhaps with a more expansive view of what climate-friendly lending looks like. Last week he told reporters that a June meeting of the World Bank’s board will discuss an “all of the above” energy strategy, entailing “not just renewable energy, but a transition plan for everyone”. Banga said he wanted the board to abandon a decades-old ban on lending for nuclear power projects — something that would please the Trump administration, which has expressed strong support for that industry. He had previously spoken approvingly of fossil gas projects, telling the New York Times in February that this was “a cleaner fuel which helps with the transition”. Again, increased lending for gas would go down well with Trump, who has long railed against supposed unfair treatment of the fossil fuel industry. None of this necessarily signals a U-turn by the World Bank on its climate stance. The World Bank had never stopped providing finance for gas projects, even as it halted support for coal and various kinds of oil projects. Nuclear power, while controversial, may have a long-term place in a net zero future. Meanwhile, the institution has already been subject to heavy scrutiny from non-profit groups over how it is assessing progress towards its climate targets.The big question now is whether these shifts in emphasis will be enough to satisfy Trump — or whether the administration will push for a more serious retreat on climate as the price of its continued support. (Simon Mundy)renewable energy Solar, wind and batteries hammered by tariffsThe Trump administration’s trade policies have been roiling retail investors since the president’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff announcements. For eco-conscious investors, the tariffs layer new risks on top of the administration’s already hostile approach towards renewable energy.For solar products, the US imports very little directly from China. However, if the president’s “reciprocal” tariffs are applied as planned in July, imports from the rest of south-east Asia will be hit with steep levies on top of the baseline 10 per cent tariff that is already in effect. These tariffs could drive up the cost for utility solar projects by 2.5 to 3.5 per cent “purely accounting for the impact of reciprocal tariffs on solar panels”, Morgan Stanley estimated in a research report on April 14.Despite Trump suspending the disbursement of grants, loans and other financial incentives included in the Inflation Reduction Act, the renewable energy tax credits remain in place. If those were to be eliminated, then project costs would shoot higher, the bank said. But so far this year, there is little appetite in Congress for repealing the credit. In an April 9 letter, Republican senators urged the Trump administration to refrain from repealing tax incentives that promote US manufacturing.Shares in US solar companies First Solar and Sunrun have sunk 31 and 33 per cent this year respectively.There has been one safe harbour in the turbulent sea of solar investing. Nextracker, which makes trackers to shift solar panels as the sun arcs across the sky, has enjoyed a modest share price rise of 2 per cent so far this year. To capitalise on tax credits from the IRA, Nextracker has been sourcing steel in the US. “We see no direct tariff exposure” given 100 per cent of the company’s products have been made in the US since the end of 2024, Bank of America said in an April 16 research report. “The entire [solar] tracker industry is well positioned” to withstand tariffs, the bank said.Batteries, a crucial piece of the solar ecosystem for energy storage, are highly dependent on China, which accounts to nearly 70 per cent of lithium-ion supply, Morgan Stanley said.The 145 per cent tariff on China would “substantially” raise the price of battery storage equipment in the US, Morgan Stanley said. South Korea, the second-largest battery supplier to the US, is facing a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff when Trump’s 90-day pause, announced on April 9, ends.“We expect uncertainty around IRA policy and potential adverse impacts from tariffs to continue to weigh on cleantech valuations,” Morgan Stanley said.Wind turbine parts are also being hit with tariffs, although the impact should be fairly limited, Morgan Stanley said. Up to 60 per cent of wind blades and other parts come from Mexico, and appear to be spared tariffs for now. But Germany supplied two-thirds of wind towers. Germany, Vietnam and Spain supply 80 per cent of generator parts for wind turbines, the bank said.If the Trump administration’s goal with tariffs is to encourage domestic manufacturing, the renewable energy companies might have been expected to benefit. But they will be hurt by these tariffs on imported raw materials, and the sector will suffer further if Trump targets subsidies that the Biden administration adopted. (Patrick Temple-West)Smart readsSoak the rich Can wealth taxes really work?Protest vote A quarter of investors voted against the re-election of the chair at oil major BP.Pushing back The leader of the European parliament’s biggest political group has called for the EU to scrap its 2035 deadline for an end to combustion engine car sales.Recommended newsletters for youFull Disclosure — Keeping you up to date with the biggest international legal news, from the courts to law enforcement and the business of law. Sign up hereEnergy Source — Essential energy news, analysis and insider intelligence. Sign up here More

This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to get the newsletter delivered every weekday morning. Explore all of our newsletters hereGood morning and welcome back to FirstFT. Today, Easter Monday, the Vatican has announced the death of Pope Francis, leader of the world’s 1.4bn Catholics. Amy Kazmin has the latest from Rome while Tony Barber has written an excellent obituary.This is what else is on the agenda for today:Chinese funds cut back on new investments in the USWorld leaders gather in Washington for the IMF/World Bank spring forumsCrypto casino takings shoot upAnd the connection between Donald Trump and a small scenic Swiss ski village Chinese state-backed funds are pulling back from making new investments in US private equity, pulling billions from firms such as Blackstone and the Carlyle Group as tensions with Washington escalate. It is the latest in the fallout from Donald Trump’s renewed trade offensive.FT reporters have spoken to a number of private equity executives with knowledge of the matter, and discovered that state-backed funds have been cutting back over recent weeks. In some cases, where a final commitment had not yet been made, this included pulling out of allocations that had already been planned.Why has this happened? China has borne the brunt of the US tariffs announced in the past three weeks, with Trump imposing up to 145 per cent on Chinese exports. Beijing retaliated with 125 per cent tariffs and is now evaluating its commitments amid increasing uncertainty about the US president’s policies and ensuing trade war. Why does it matter? Chinese sovereign wealth funds have poured billions of dollars into many of the largest US capital groups over recent decades, becoming among the world’s biggest investors in alternative assets. Dig deeper:Beijing has warned it will retaliate against countries that negotiate trade deals with the US “at the expense of China’s interests”.The dollar weakened as investors responded to mounting uncertainty over US economic policy.Ruchir Sharma explains how the trade war will reorder the global economy — not burn it down.Top industry executives have told the FT the geopolitical environment is making people question where to invest.Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:War in Ukraine: The conflict continues after a 30-hour “Easter ceasefire” unilaterally declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which Kyiv has accused Moscow of breaking.Markets closed: Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Italy and the UK markets are closed for Easter Monday. 129th Boston Marathon: The world’s oldest annual marathon takes place on the 250th anniversary of Patriots’ Day. Don’t miss the opportunity to join Unhedged’s Robert Armstrong and other FT experts on Wednesday as they discuss how Trump’s policies are shaping markets in a subscriber-only webinar. Register for free.Five more top stories1. Gloom ahead of IMF meetings as global confidence slumps: Global policymakers are awaiting clarity on Trump’s stance towards the IMF and World Bank, with the organisations’ week-long meetings starting today.2. Problems for Poilievre: A little more than a week from Canada’s general election, Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre has lost a 25-point lead and trails in every major opinion poll behind Mark Carney’s Liberal party. Can he change the way he campaigns, or is it too late?3. Ms Reeves goes to Washington: UK chancellor Rachel Reeves will discuss a possible UK-US trade deal when she meets US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent for the first time this week, as well as making the case for global free trade.4. ‘Battle test’ ahead: US and Philippine forces are to conduct their first “full battle test” for fighting together in flashpoints such as Taiwan or the South China Sea, in a reflection of Washington’s rapidly deepening military engagement with its oldest Asian ally.5. Second-hand sellers benefit from ‘liberation day’: As Stephanie Stacey reports from the US, thrift stores are betting that the pain conventional retailers are expected to endure from the president’s tariffs will be their gain.The Big Read© Menahem Kahana/Pool/AFP/Getty ImagesAfter spending a year on the back foot in the wake of Hamas’s murderous attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone on the offensive. Israeli forces have seized land from neighbours while Netanyahu has pressured Trump to support military action against Iran. At home, Netanyahu’s administration has resumed a bitter power struggle with the judiciary and other pillars of the state. “What we are facing now is an existential crisis,” said a former chief of domestic spy agency Shin Bet.We’re also reading . . . Chart of the dayCrypto casino takings have soared to tens of billions of dollars a year, new data shows, as gamblers bypass blocks in their home countries to bet on unregulated offshore platforms. Despite being illegal in most countries, wagers paid in cryptocurrency generated $81.4bn in gross gaming revenue last year — a fivefold rise since 2022.In other news . . . Donald Trump seems to be having a big impact on a small ski village in the Swiss Alps. Find out why beautiful Andermatt has seen such a huge surge in property demand from US buyers.Wealthy Americans are already drawing up contingency plans to move assets to Switzerland amid uncertainty caused by the Trump administration More

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Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldBeijing has warned it will retaliate against countries that negotiate trade deals with the US “at the expense of China’s interests”, fuelling global tensions as the world’s two economic superpowers face off over tariffs.The statement by the commerce ministry, which was responding to reports that US President Donald Trump’s administration planned to use trade talks with multiple countries to try to isolate China, called on them to instead join Beijing to “resist unilateral bullying”.“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the ministry said on Monday. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner.”China has become the focus of Trump’s trade war after the US president paused a wave of unilateral “reciprocal” tariffs on most countries but left levies on Chinese goods as high as 145 per cent in place. Beijing has retaliated, imposing its own tariffs of 125 per cent on US goods.Trump has called several times for Beijing to open negotiations to avert a trade war, and China has said it is open to talks, but neither side has signalled that high-level contacts are under way.The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Trump’s administration wanted to use talks on reciprocal tariffs with more than 70 countries to push for help isolating Beijing in exchange for reductions in US levies and trade barriers.While the report said the US strategy was intended to pressure Beijing to come to the negotiating table and abandon its defiant stance, China has shown little sign of backing down.China’s leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia last week, where he sought to shore up relations with Beijing’s trading partners.South-east Asian exporters face steep tariffs under the Trump administration, which has also accused them of serving as a transshipment conduit for Chinese goods.China has sought to portray itself as a pillar of the international trading system. But it is struggling with weak domestic demand following a deep property slowdown, forcing policymakers to lean on manufacturing and exports for economic growth and leaving the economy vulnerable to the trade war with the US.Beijing has promised various initiatives to spur consumption but has held back from launching a “bazooka” fiscal stimulus, instead investing heavily in industry to shake off its reliance on western technology.“China respects the right of all parties to resolve their economic and trade differences with the United States through equal consultations,” the commerce ministry said.But if countries encroached on Beijing’s interests, it was “determined and capable of safeguarding its own rights”.The ministry added that “all parties should stand on the side of fairness and justice and should defend international economic and trade rules and the multilateral trading system”. It said: “Once international trade returns to the ‘law of the jungle’, where the strong prey on the weak, all countries will become victims.” More

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