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How Long Will Interest Rates Stay High?

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It’s pricey to borrow to buy a business, car or home these days. Interest rates are expected to fall in coming years — how much is up for debate.Dr. Alice Mills was thinking of selling her veterinary practice in Lexington, Ky., this year, but she decided to put the move off because she worried that it would be difficult to sell in an era of rising interest rates.“In a year, I think that there’s going to be less anxiety about the interest rates, and I’m hoping that they’re going to go down,” Dr. Mills, 69, said. “I have to put my faith in the fact that the practice will sell.”Dr. Mills is one of many Americans anxiously wondering what comes next for borrowing costs — and the answer is hard to guess.It is expensive to take out a loan to buy a business or a car in 2023. Or a house: Mortgage rates are around 7 percent, up sharply from 2.7 percent at the end of 2020. That is the result of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to cool the economy.The central bank has lifted its policy interest rate to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent — the highest level in 22 years — which has trickled out to increase borrowing costs across the economy. The goal is to deter demand and force sellers to stop raising prices so much, slowing inflation.But nearly a year and a half into the effort, the Fed is at or near the end of its rate increases. Officials have projected just one more in 2023, by a quarter of a point, and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams, said in an interview that he didn’t see a need for more than that.“We’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be, and the question will really be — once we have a good understanding of that — how long will we need to keep policy in a restrictive stance, and what does that mean?” Mr. Williams said on Aug. 2.The economy is approaching a pivot point, one that has many consumers wondering when rates will come back down, how quickly and how much.“Eventually monetary policy will need over the next few years to get back to a more normal — whatever that normal is — a more normal setting of policy,” Mr. Williams said.So far, the jury is out on what normal means. Fed officials do expect to cut interest rates next year, but only slightly — they think it could be several years before rates return to a level between 2 and 3 percent, like their peak in the years before the pandemic. Officials do not forecast a return to near zero, like the setting that allowed mortgage rates to sink so low in 2020.That’s a sign of optimism: Rock-bottom rates are seen as necessary only when the economy is in bad shape and needs to be resuscitated.In fact, some economists outside the Fed think that borrowing costs might remain higher than they were in the 2010s. The reason is that what has long been known as the neutral rate — the point at which the economy is not being stimulated or depressed — may have risen. That means today’s economy may be capable of chugging along with a higher interest rate than it could previously handle.A few big changes could have caused such a shift by increasing the demand for borrowed money, which props up borrowing costs. Among them, the government has piled on more debt in recent years, businesses are shifting toward more domestic manufacturing — potentially increasing demand for factories and other infrastructure — and climate change is spurring a need for green investments.Whether that proves to be the case will have big implications for American companies, consumers, aspirational homeowners and policymakers alike.John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Jeenah Moon for The New York TimesKristin Forbes, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said it was important not to be too precise about guessing the neutral rate — it moves around and is hard to recognize in real time. But she thinks it might be higher than it was in the 2010s. The economy back then had gone through a very weak economic recovery from the Great Recession and struggled to regain its vigor.“Now, the economy has learned to function with higher interest rates,” Ms. Forbes said. “It gives me hope that we’re coming back to a more normal equilibrium.”Many economists think slightly higher rates would be a good thing. Before the pandemic, years of steadily declining demand for borrowed money depressed rates, so the Fed had to cut them to rock bottom every time there was an economic crisis to try to encourage people to spend more.Even near-zero rates couldn’t always do the trick: Growth recovered only slowly after the 2008 recession despite the Fed’s extraordinary efforts to coax it back.If demand for money is slightly higher on a regular basis, that will make it easier to goose the economy in times of trouble. If the Fed cuts rates, it will pull more home buyers, entrepreneurs and car purchasers off the sidelines. That would lower the risk of economic stagnation.To be sure, few if any prominent economists expect rates to stay at higher levels like those that prevailed in the 1980s and 1990s. Those who expect rates to stay elevated think the Fed’s main policy rate could hover around 4 percent, while those who expect them to be lower see something more in the range of 2 to 3 percent, said Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.That is because some of the factors that have pushed rates down in recent years persist — and could intensify.“Several of the explanations for the decline in long-term interest rates before the pandemic are still with us,” explained Lukasz Rachel, an economist at University College London, citing things like an aging population and low birthrates.When fewer people need houses and products, there is less demand for money to borrow to construct buildings and factories, and interest rates naturally fall.Such factors are enough for Mr. Williams, the New York Fed president, to expect neutral rates to stick close to their prepandemic level. He also pointed to the shift toward internet services: Streaming a movie on Netflix does not require as much continuing investment as keeping video stores open and stocked.“We are moving more and more to an economy that doesn’t need factories and lots of capital investment to produce a lot of output,” Mr. Williams said, later adding that “I think the neutral rate is probably just as low as it was.”That has some big implications for monetary policy. When inflation of around 3 percent is stripped out, the Fed’s policy rate sits at about 2.25 to 2.5 percent in what economists call “real” terms. That is well above the setting of 1 percent or less that Mr. Williams sees as necessary to start weighing on the economy.If price increases continue to fall, the Fed will inadvertently be clamping down on the economy harder in that “real” sense if it holds its policy interest rate steady, Mr. Williams said. That means officials will need to cut rates to avoid overdoing it, he said — perhaps even as soon as early next year.“I think it will depend on the data, and depend on what’s happening with inflation,” Mr. Williams said when asked if the Fed might lower interest rates in the first half of 2024. “If inflation is coming down, it will be natural to bring” the federal funds rate “down next year, consistent with that, to keep the stance of monetary policy appropriate.”For Dr. Mills, the Kentucky veterinarian, that could be good news, bringing partial retirement that much closer.“I would love to get back into zoo work,” she said, explaining that she had worked with big cats early in her career and would love to do so again once she sold her practice — which is itself cats only. “That’s something for retirement.” More

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    A Fed Official Wonders: ‘Do We Need to Do Another Rate Increase?’

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    The head of the powerful New York Fed said that it was an “open question,” and that rates could fall next year.John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, thinks that the central bank’s push to cool the economy is near its peak and that he expects that interest rates could begin to come down next year.In an interview on Aug. 2, Mr. Williams said that inflation was coming down as hoped, and that while he expected unemployment to rise slightly as the economy cooled, by how much was unclear.The upshot is that interest rates are unlikely to rise much further than the current range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. Fed officials could also consider cutting them soon: Mr. Williams did not rule out the possibility of lowering rates in early 2024, depending on economic data. His comments are a sign that moderating inflation could pave the way for a shift in policy approach. After months of focusing single-mindedly on bringing inflation under control, officials are increasingly focused on not overdoing it as they try to ease the economy through a gentle cooling.Below are edited highlights of the interview. (Read the full transcript here.)I wonder if there is anything that is on your mind that you want to talk about?We’re seeing continued strength in the economy. At the same time, a lot of the indicators are moving in the right direction. We’ve seen the job openings and other indicators are telling us that supply and demand are moving closer together.On the inflation front I definitely think that the data are moving similarly in the right direction, but I think that similarly, the only way we’re really going to achieve the 2 percent inflation on a sustained basis is really to bring that balance back to the economy.Clearly we’re not in a recession, or anything like that — but we need to see that process of getting supply and demand, from both sides, coming back into balance.Do you think additional rate increases are necessary to achieve that?I think that’s an open question, honestly.I think we’ve got monetary policy in a good place, it is definitely restrictive, but we have to watch the data. Are we seeing the supply-demand imbalances continue to shrink, move in the right direction? Are we seeing the inflation data move in the right direction, in order to decide that?Of course, there is another question, which is: How long do we have to keep the restrictive stance of policy? And that I think it’s going to be driven by the data.Are we talking about one more rate increase or more?Given what I see today, from the perspective of the data that we have, I think — it’s not about having to tighten monetary policy a lot. To me, the debate is really about: Do we need to do another rate increase? Or not?I think we’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be, and the question will really be — once we have a good understanding of that, how long will we need to keep policy in a restrictive stance, and what does that mean.When you say “what does that mean,” what do you mean by that?I think of monetary policy primarily in terms of real interest rates, and we set nominal rates.[Note: Real interest rates subtract out inflation, while nominal rates include it. Estimates of the so-called “neutral” rate setting that neither heats nor cools the economy are usually expressed in inflation-adjusted, real terms.]Assuming inflation continues to come down, it comes down next year, as many forecast, including the economic projections, if we don’t cut interest rates at some point next year then real interest rates will go up, and up, and up. And that won’t be consistent with our goals. So I do think that from my perspective, to keep maintaining a restrictive stance may very well involved cutting the federal funds rate next year, or year after, but really it’s about how are we affecting real interest rates — not nominal rates.My outlook is really one where inflation comes back to 2 percent over the next two years, and the economy comes into better balance, and eventually monetary policy will need over the next few years to get back to a more normal — whatever that normal is — a more normal setting of policy.Could you see a rate cut in the first half next year?I think it will depend on the data, and depend on what’s happening with inflation. The first half of next year is still a ways off.I don’t think the issue is exactly the timing, or things. It’s really more that if inflation is coming down, it will be natural to bring nominal interest rates down next year, consistent with that, to keep the stance of monetary policy appropriate for an economy that’s growing, and for inflation moving to the 2 percent level.Is inflation falling faster than expected?I do think that overall P.C.E. inflation for the year will probably come in at 3 percent, that depends on a lot of different things, and I expect core inflation to be above that, based on all the information we’re seeing.I do think that we are moving to an environment already where the underlying inflation rate has come down quite a bit. Mainly because — or not mainly, but in large part because the shelter inflation has come down so much. That’s been such a big driver of core inflation over the last couple of years.Is it coming down as expected, or quicker than expected? How has this compared to what you would have forecast three months ago?The data have surprised me and everybody a lot the past couple of years, because of the pandemic, the war, Russia’s war in Ukraine, all the things that happen. Surprises in data have become more the norm. For me, personally, the inflation data have been coming in as I had expected — and also hoped.What do you see as that sustainable pace of job growth?A lot of the labor force growth we’ve seen over the past year or so has been a rebound, and a return to a strong labor market conditions after the pandemic. That can’t continue every year forever: I mean the high labor force participation can continue, but it can’t continue to grow and grow and grow forever.Like a 100,000, or 150,000, gain in monthly employment?I’m not sure exactly, but it’s more in that 100,000 range than where it is today. We can’t be really precise about what exactly that means.What about wage growth? How much do you think you need to get wage growth down in order to feel confident that inflation is going to come down?I view wage growth, in terms of your question, as more of an indicator, rather than a goal or a target. So I don’t sit there thinking: We need to see wage growth do one thing or another in the next year or two.We’re still in an economy where demand exceeds supply, it’s a strong labor market, clearly, and wage growth has been very strong and it’s higher than inflation.Now, in the longer run, when you think about — over the next five years or something — you would expect real wages, wages adjusted for inflation, to grow consistent with productivity trends. Right now, I don’t think that’s exactly what I’m focused on. I’m more focused on: what are all these indicators, all the different data telling us about the overall balance or imbalance between supply and demand and what that implies for inflation.Would you be comfortable skipping a rate increase in September?We get a lot of data between now and the September meeting, and we will have to analyze that and make the right decision. I personally don’t have any preference of what we need to do at a future meeting.From my perspective, we have gone from a place — a year, a year and a half ago, where the inflation was way too high, not moving in the right direction, and the risks were all on inflation being too high, to one where the risks are on both sides.We have the two-sided risks that we need to balance, making sure that we don’t do too much, and weaken the economy too much — more than we need to in order to achieve our goals — and at the same time make sure that we do enough to make sure that we convincingly bring inflation back to 2 percent.Do you think that unemployment needs to go up in order for inflation to come down?Right now the unemployment rate is below many people’s view of a long-run normal unemployment rate, but not by a lot. A few tenths or so. From that perspective, I would expect the unemployment rate would move back to a more normal level. Will it rise above that, in order to really get inflation back to 2 percent? I don’t know the answer to that, in my own projection, my own forecast, I expect that the unemployment rate will rise above 4 percent next year, but I can’t say with any conviction how much will that need to happen.What do you think the criteria will be for cutting interest rates next year?To me, I think the main criteria that I’m thinking about in my forecast, is that really about with inflation coming down, needing to adjust interest rates with that so that we’re not inadvertently tightening policy more and more just because inflation is down. That is my baseline forecast — obviously, if the economic outlook changes, or other factors happen, there are other reasons why you’d change interest rates.A risk that people are talking about right now is this possibility of not just no landing, but re-acceleration. It’s possible that the economy takes back off and you guys have to do more down the road. I wonder how you think about the possibility?It’s a possibility. Being data-dependent means that if we see the data moving in that direction, we’ll need to act appropriately, as we have in the past.To me I guess if that risk were to materialize, it probably would be more that, demand is a lot stronger than I had been expecting, and we probably need more restrictive policy to bring supply and demand back into balance.A question we get from our readers all the time is: Are mortgage rates ever going to go back down to where they were before the pandemic disruptions? And I wonder what you think of that, as the person who’s done all of the research on interest rates?My expectation is that over time, over years, real interest rates will actually come back down from the levels they’re at.I haven’t seen really any strong evidence that neutral rates have yet risen much beyond what they were, say before the pandemic.If there’s a risk of going back to very low neutral rates, which obviously carries this inherent risk of ending up back at zero, why not just raise the inflation target now? It seems like you could deal with two problems at once, both giving yourself more headroom and making it easier to hit the inflation target.I think the experience of the past few years has taught me that 4 percent inflation is not considered price stability — it has not felt like price stability by the general public, or quite honestly, by policymakers; 4 percent inflation seems very high in the modern world. 3 percent seems high; 2 percent was already the compromise, of saying: Why not go all the way to zero? And there’s some technical reasons that you might not want to go all the way to zero, but 2 percent was to provide a buffer.[When the Fed reviewed its approach to setting policy in 2020] I personally felt comfortable that a 2 percent target, along with a commitment to achieving 2 percent inflation on average over time, positioned us well to achieve those goals. More

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    Rules to Curb Illicit Dollar Flows Create Hardships for Iraqis

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    The regulations were meant to prevent dollar transfers to those targeted by U.S. sanctions on Iran, Syria and Russia. But they have ended up harming ordinary Iraqis who need U.S. currency for business or travel.BAGHDAD — When the United States and Iraq put tough new currency rules into effect recently, the intent was to stem the illicit flow of dollars to those targeted by U.S. sanctions on Iran, Syria and Russia, as well as to terrorist organizations and money launderers.But in a country with a primarily cash economy, the changes created unintended hardships for ordinary Iraqis who need dollars for legitimate business purposes or travel abroad. Dollars have run short, and the cost in Iraqi dinars at some local currency traders has surged.Long lines are forming early in the day outside money changers’ shops, where Iraqis planning to travel outside the country often turn up grasping plastic bags stuffed with dinars, which banks outside the country do not accept. These days, it’s not easy to find a money changer who still has dollars. And those who do run out early.“I don’t have any dollars left,” one currency trader, Abu Ali, said last week at his shop in Baghdad’s Karrada neighborhood.The new currency rules, worked out in an agreement between the United States and Iraq, require greater transparency surrounding the transfers of dollars held as foreign currency reserves for Iraq in an account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They went into effect late last year.The agreement was part of a long-delayed modernization of Iraq’s financial system as it begins to conform to the rules that most countries follow and adapts to requirements for more transparency in international financial transactions.U.S. dollars being counted at an authorized currency dealer in Baghdad.Joao Silva/The New York TimesEvery day, the Central Bank of Iraq facilitates the withdrawal of a large sum of dollars from its account at the New York Fed. The transfers are critical because, in Iraq’s largely cash economy, only a few businesses accept credit cards and almost no ordinary Iraqis have one. Even bank accounts are a rarity.Some of the money is wired on behalf of Iraqi businesses to pay for goods from outside Iraq. Some of it is designated for currency exchanges and banks to distribute to Iraqis traveling abroad.But there has been little in the way of electronic footprints to help U.S. officials trace whether some of the transfers were ending up in the hands of parties targeted by U.S. sanctions.A dollar shortage affecting ordinary Iraqis is one of the unintended consequences of new and tougher rules worked out by Iraq’s central bank in concert with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Joao Silva/The New York TimesThe concerns date back to soon after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.At that time, American authorities tried unsuccessfully to document the chain of custody for billions of dollars transported to the country in cash over a period of years. In one instance, $1.2 billion from Iraq was found in a Lebanese bunker with no record of how it got there, according to a New York Times investigation in 2014.The U.S. Treasury wanted to ensure that dollars were not being sent in violation of U.S. law to fronts or agents for parties under sanctions or terrorist entities. In congressional testimony in 2016, for example, a top Treasury official noted three groups targeted by sanctions that were known to be active in Iraq: Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah.With the Islamic State’s takeover of northern Iraq in 2014, it seized of a branch of Iraq’s central bank and those worries became more urgent.The situation underscored the need for more transparency in dollar transfers to Iraq, according to a U.S. Treasury official, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak with reporters.An authorized currency exchange. Joao Silva/The New York TimesAfter the Iraqis finally defeated the Islamic State in 2018, Iraqi and U.S. bankers and the Treasury began to discuss a new system for money transfers.Under the new regulations, both individuals and companies requesting wire transfers of dollars must disclose their own identity, and the identity of whoever is ultimately getting the money. That information is then reviewed by an electronic system as well as by experts at Iraq’s central bank and the New York Fed, before payment is made.The new system allows banks around the world to conduct automatic checks on transfers of money from Iraq to other countries, said Ahmed Tabaqchali, the chief strategist for Asia Frontier Capital’s Iraq fund.“In short, the system heightens the visibility of red flags,” he said.Waiting at a currency exchange in Baghdad.Joao Silva/The New York TimesNow, many requests are being rejected, said Mudher Salih, a former deputy head of Iraq’s central bank and now a financial policy adviser to Iraq’s new prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Sometimes, he said, that is because of suspect identities but other times it is because many Iraqi businesses do not have the requisite licenses to import goods or are not properly registered as commercial entities and therefore are in violation of Iraqi law.The rejections have created a shortage of dollars, which has sharply increased their cost for Iraqis with legitimate needs, he added.Since 2003, there have been two Iraqi dinar rates for buying dollars; an official rate established by Iraq’s central bank and an unofficial street rate, which is higher. And when dollars are scarce, the street price goes up.The difference between the two is creating hardships for Iraqis like Janna, a mother of four. She said she had been saving up to buy a refrigerator and had her eye on a German model that cost about $250. In October, that was the equivalent of 320,000 dinars. Today, because of the scarcity of dollars, the refrigerator would cost 375,000 dinars.“It’s more than I can afford,” she said.Shoppers in Baghdad’s busy Karrada neighborhood.Joao Silva/The New York TimesAfter the new currency rules took effect, the quantity of dollars flowing daily into Iraq fell sharply — on some days down by nearly 65 percent from $180 million to $67 million — compared with the period before the rules were implemented, according to daily cash flow numbers released by Iraq’s central bank.The influx of dollars has since picked up, but it is still often less than half of what it was before the new system was put in place.It is not clear exactly how much of the drop in dollars reflects illicit recipients who have now either stopped requesting money because they do not want to make the disclosures required by the new rules or because the Iraqi central bank or the New York Fed rejected their requests.“I would not put down to fraud the almost 90 percent drop,” said Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq. “Maybe it’s 45 percent fraud and 45 percent incompetence or just not knowing how to deal with the new regulations.”Iraq’s financial system is going through a long-delayed modernization as it begins to conform to the rules followed in many other countries.Joao Silva/The New York TimesYasmine Mosimann More

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    Fed Rate Increases Have ‘A Ways to Go,’ Top Official Says

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    Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, said he favored a quarter-point move. Many of his colleagues agree — or haven’t ruled it out.Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, added his voice on Friday to a chorus of central bank officials who favor slowing rate increases at the central bank’s Feb. 1 meeting. That most likely locks in place market expectations for a return to smaller policy adjustments after a series of jumbo rate moves.Mr. Waller spoke on the eve of the central bank’s quiet period before its meeting, which means investors will not hear any more commentary from Fed officials before they make their rate decision. His comments were in line with what many of his colleagues have said: Several openly support slowing down rate increases at the meeting, and top policymakers who haven’t made up their minds have not ruled it out.Central bankers raised rates rapidly in 2022, lifting borrowing costs in three-quarter-point increments for much of the year, before slowing to a half-point move in December. But they are entering a new phase that is focused more on how high interest rates rise and less on how quickly they get there. The thinking is that rates are now high enough to meaningfully slow the economy, and that adjusting them more gradually will give policymakers time to see how their policy is working.That has nudged policymakers toward a quarter-point increase, also known as 25 basis points, an increment that was common before the pandemic.“After climbing steeply and using monetary policy to significantly raise interest rates throughout the economy, it was apparent to me that it was time to slow, but not halt, the rate of ascent,” Mr. Waller said of the December downshift. “There appears to be little turbulence ahead, so I currently favor a 25-basis-point increase” at the Fed’s next meeting, he said.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    A Fed Pivot? Not Yet, Policymakers Suggest, as Rapid Inflation Lingers.

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    Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday made clear that they expected to continue raising rates to try to choke off the most rapid inflation in decades, putting them at odds with investors who had become more sanguine about the outlook for interest rate moves.Stocks prices rose following the Fed’s meeting last week, as investors celebrated what some interpreted as a pivot: Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said the central bank would begin making rate decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, which Wall Street took as a signal that its rate moves might soon slow down.But a chorus of Fed officials has since made clear that a lurch away from rate increases is not yet in the cards.Mary C. Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in an interview on LinkedIn on Tuesday that the Fed was “nowhere near” done raising interest rates. Charles L. Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told reporters that he would favor a half- or even a three-quarter-point rate increase in September.Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview late last week that he did not understand why markets were dialing back their expectations for Fed rate increases.8 Signs That the Economy Is Losing SteamCard 1 of 9Worrying outlook. More

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    E. Gerald Corrigan, Who Helped Ease ’87 Stock Crash, Dies at 80

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    As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, he favored flooding the financial system with cash to restore confidence among investors.E. Gerald Corrigan, who as the aggressive president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank helped cushion Wall Street’s crash in the late 1980s, died on May 17 in a memory-care center in Dedham, Mass. He was 80.The cause was complications of Alzheimer’s disease, his daughter Elizabeth Corrigan said.As president of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis from 1980 to 1984 and then of the New York Fed from 1985 to 1993, Mr. Corrigan used his prerogatives as a regulator to help resolve national and global financial crises, and to remedy some of the causes of episodic market instability.“He played a crucial role providing the psychological reassurance for a few critical days after the stock market crash,” Paul A. Volcker, the former Federal Reserve Board chairman, said when Mr. Corrigan retired from the Fed in 1993, referring to his actions after the Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 22 percent in a single day in October 1987.In that upheaval, Mr. Corrigan urged the Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, to reassure the markets that the Federal Reserve would pump whatever money was necessary into the financial system to reduce volatility. He also played vital roles in other crises: He helped the Fed to address the collapse of the investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert in 1989 and of Salomon Brothers in 1991, and to deal with rising inflation, emerging market debt and the need to regulate worldwide credit risk.After Mr. Corrigan retired from the Fed, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he became managing director in 1996 and later chairman of the firm’s international advisers, co-chairman of its business standards committee and the first nonexecutive chairman of its commercial bank, now known as Goldman Sachs Bank. He retired from Goldman in 2016.Edward Gerald Corrigan, known as Jerry, was born on June 13, 1941, in Waterbury, Conn. His father, Edward, was a restaurant manager. His mother, Mary (Hardy) Corrigan, was a librarian.He earned a Bachelor of Social Science degree in economics from Fairfield University in Connecticut in 1963. At Fordham University in New York, he received a master’s degree in economics in 1965 and a doctorate in the same subject in 1971. (Years later, he donated $5 million to each university to establish professorships.)After teaching for a year at Fordham, he joined the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a researcher in 1968 while still working on his doctorate. When Mr. Volcker, the New York Fed’s president, became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in 1979, he recruited Mr. Corrigan as a special assistant.During his tenure at the Fed, Mr. Corrigan was named chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision by the governors of the world’s central banks, a position he held from 1991 to 1993. He also served as vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee from 1984 to 1993. In 1992 he was named a co-chairman of the Russian-American Bankers Forum, which helped the former Soviet Union develop a market-driven banking and financial system.In addition to his daughter Elizabeth, Mr. Corrigan is survived by another daughter, Karen Corrigan Tate, from his marriage to Linda Barlow, which ended in divorce; his wife, Cathy Minehan, who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston from 1994 to 2007; his stepchildren, Melissa Minehan Walters and Brian Minehan; a sister, Patricia Carlascio; and five grandchildren.Mr. Corrigan’s romance with Ms. Minehan raised questions of a possible conflict of interest when she was at the Fed and he was at Goldman Sachs in the mid-1990s, but he said at the time that they had consulted lawyers to prevent leaks of sensitive information that might benefit his company.During his stewardship, the Fed was criticized for failing to curb abuses by the scandal-scarred Bank of Credit and Commerce International. But Mr. Corrigan said when he retired that “if it wasn’t for the Fed, there is a pretty good chance that B.C.C.I. would still be in business.”In his remarks in 1993, Mr. Volcker said Mr. Corrigan had “a good conceptual understanding of the financial world, but most importantly he knows how to get things done.”“That’s a rare quality in the bureaucratic world in which he has grown up,” Mr. Volcker added.When the market crashed in 1987, for example, Fed officials planned to deliver a turgid technical response.“I said that’s the last damn thing we need,” Mr. Corrigan was quoted as saying in Sebastian Mallaby’s “The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan” (2016). “What we need is a statement that has about 10 words in it.”Mr. Greenspan took Mr. Corrigan’s advice, saying (in 30 words) that the Fed would make available whatever money was needed while Mr. Corrigan importuned major banks to continue lending to undergird the markets.When Mr. Corrigan retired from the Fed, he said he would take a job in private industry where “I’ll try to limit myself to working six days a week, instead of seven.” The aftermath of the market crash in 1987, he said, had been his most memorable moment.“In terms of my pulse rate,” he said, “that one takes the prize.”Mr. Corrigan at a meeting of a European Union committee in Brussels in 2010 to discuss the Greek economy. George Gobet/AFP — Getty Images More

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    Jerome Powell Confirmed for a Second Term as Fed Chair

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    Jerome Powell, whom the Senate confirmed to a second term on Thursday, said allowing rapid inflation to persist would be more painful.Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said in an interview on Thursday that lowering inflation is likely to be painful but that allowing price gains to persist would be the bigger problem — squaring off with the major challenge facing his central bank as he officially starts his second term at its helm.Mr. Powell, whom Senators confirmed to a second four-year term at the head of the central bank in an 80-19 vote on Thursday, holds one of most consequential jobs in the United States and the world economy at a moment of rapid inflation and deep uncertainty.Consumer prices climbed 8.3 percent in April from the previous year, according to data reported on Wednesday. And while inflation eased slightly on an annual basis, it remained near the fastest pace in 40 years, and the details of the release suggested that price pressures continue to run hot.The Fed has already begun raising interest rates to try and cool the economy, making its largest increase since 2000 when it lifted borrowing costs by half a percentage point this month. Mr. Powell and his colleagues have signaled that they will continue to push rates higher as they try to restrain spending and hiring, hoping to bring demand and supply into balance and drive inflation lower.Mr. Powell suggested Thursday in an interview with Marketplace that an even bigger 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase, though not under consideration at the moment, could be appropriate if economic data come in worse than officials expect.“The process of getting inflation down to 2 percent will also include some pain, but ultimately the most painful thing would be if we were to fail to deal with it and inflation were to get entrenched in the economy at high levels,” Mr. Powell also said. “That’s just people losing the value of their paycheck to high inflation and, ultimately, we’d have to go through a much deeper downturn.”Mr. Powell, who was chosen as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama and then elevated to chair by former President Donald J. Trump, was renominated by President Biden late last year.Understand Inflation and How It Impacts YouInflation 101: What is inflation, why is it up and whom does it hurt? Our guide explains it all.Inflation Calculator: How you experience inflation can vary greatly depending on your spending habits. Answer these seven questions to estimate your personal inflation rate.Interest Rates: As it seeks to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates for the first time since 2018. Here is what the increases mean for consumers.State Intervention: As inflation stays high, lawmakers across the country are turning to tax cuts to ease the pain, but the measures could make things worse. How Americans Feel: We asked 2,200 people where they’ve noticed inflation. Many mentioned basic necessities, like food and gas.Though he has been popular among lawmakers for much of his tenure, several Republicans and Democrats voted against the nomination. Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat from New Jersey, cited the central bank’s failure to promote Latino leaders. Senator Richard Shelby, Republican of Alabama, cited high inflation in opposing Mr. Powell, posting on Twitter that “we should not reward failure.”Inflation is likely to be the defining challenge of Mr. Powell’s second term. As Mr. Shelby’s comments suggest, the Fed has been criticized for responding too slowly to rapid price gains last year. Mr. Powell has emphasized that policymakers did the best they could with the data in hand.“If you had perfect hindsight, you’d go back and it probably would have been better for us to have raised rates a little sooner,” Mr. Powell said in his interview with Marketplace. “I’m not sure how much difference it would have made, but we have to make decisions in real time, based on what we know then, and we did the best we could.”With Mr. Powell’s confirmation, Mr. Biden has now appointed four of the Fed’s seven governors in Washington, putting his imprimatur on the central bank at a crucial moment.The Senate last month confirmed Lael Brainard, formerly a Fed governor, as Mr. Biden’s choice for the Fed’s vice chair, an influential position within the central bank.This week, the Senate confirmed two other new Fed governors — Lisa D. Cook and Philip N. Jefferson. Mr. Biden has also nominated Michael S. Barr as the new vice chair for supervision, and his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled for next week.Ms. Brainard and Mr. Powell have long been aligned on policy, and the Fed’s newest governors — Ms. Cook and Mr. Jefferson — indicated during their confirmation hearings that they, too, are focused on fighting inflation. Fed officials view stable prices as a crucial building block for sustainable economic growth.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    How Inflation Concerns May Affect Prices

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    Age, region, education and income all influence what people think consumer prices will be a few years from now. And that creates a policy puzzle.Who is worried about inflation? Older Americans, for sure; the young, not so much.

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    How different age groups think inflation will rise
    Data is monthly survey results, through Nov. 2021, of the median expected inflation rate for the next three years by demographic.Source: New York FedBy The New York TimesLow-income families are more concerned than richer ones.

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    How people at different income levels think inflation will rise
    Data is monthly survey results, through Nov. 2021, of the median expected inflation rate for the next three years by demographic.Source: New York FedBy The New York TimesPeople in the Midwest and the South foresee inflation’s impact hitting harder than residents of the West and the Northeast do.

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    How people in different regions think inflation will rise
    Data is monthly survey results, through Nov. 2021, of the median expected inflation rate for the next three years by demographic.Source: New York FedBy The New York TimesAnd those without a college degree are more apprehensive than college graduates.

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    How people with different education levels think inflation will rise
    Data is monthly survey results, through Nov. 2021, of the median expected inflation rate for the next three years by demographic.Source: New York FedBy The New York TimesThese idiosyncratic patterns could have an effect on how much inflation we get.The Federal Reserve’s approach to controlling inflation depends on ordinary Americans’ expectations. If people expect inflation to remain low into the future, the Fed may do nothing even if prices spike momentarily, because of supply chain constraints or other factors. If inflation expectations rise, though, the Fed will probably bring down the hammer, worried that they will get baked into everyday decisions.“If I were at the Fed right now, I would be concerned” about inflation readings above 6 percent, said Narayana Kocherlakota, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who is now a professor of economics at the University of Rochester. “What will this do to the inflationary zeitgeist?”A tricky challenge for the Fed’s approach, though, is that people’s inflation expectations do not necessarily flow from an analytical reading of prices and wages. They are influenced by many things that often have little to do with the economy.It is natural for the poor to be more preoccupied by rising prices, because prices tend to hit the poor harder. Low-income families spend most of their earnings on necessities. They are immediately hit by rising prices of gas, food, rent and the like. The Consumer Price Index for November showed an overall increase in prices of 6.8 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982. Energy prices — which are historically volatile — rose at nearly five times that rate.Moreover, the poor don’t have the financial tools that the rich can use to protect the value of their savings.What to Know About Inflation in the U.S.Fastest Inflation in Decades: The Consumer Price Index — a measure of the average change over time in prices — rose 6.8 percent in November from a year earlier, its sharpest increase since 1982.Why Washington Is Worried: Policymakers are starting to acknowledge that price increases have been proving more persistent than expected.Who’s to Blame for Rising Prices?: Here are the most obvious candidates — and where the evidence looks strongest.What the Experts Say: Most agree the spike in prices is linked to the economic recovery. When it will fade, and by how much, are less clear.The Psychology of Inflation: Americans are flush with cash and jobs, but they also think the economy is awful.But people’s attitudes about inflation are also shaped by other influences. For instance, in a Gallup poll in November, 53 percent of Republicans reported that recent price increases were causing personal hardship, but only 37 percent of Democrats did.That’s not because inflation necessarily hurts Republicans more than Democrats, or because the G.O.P. may have a stronger ideological aversion to rising prices. A recent study by economists in Germany and Switzerland found that when Barack Obama was in the White House, inflation expectations in Republican states ran almost half a percentage point higher than in Democratic states. But they dropped three-quarters of a point when Donald J. Trump became president.That is, as with impressions of the overall state of the economy, perceptions of inflation may be shaped by who’s in power. This could be part of the reason that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that inflation expectations in the South and the Midwest — where the overwhelming majority of Republican voters live — have jumped far more than in the West and the Northeast, home to most Democrats. But the inflation rates in the South and the Midwest have, in fact, been somewhat higher than elsewhere.People’s expectations are also influenced by time.Older people have particular reasons to be concerned about rising prices. They often rely on fixed incomes, which are eroded by inflation. They are out of the labor market, so care less about unemployment. Given their high voter participation and outsized political power, it is hardly surprising that governments in countries with older populations tend to follow more strict monetary policies and deliver lower inflation.But time also has other, hard-to-measure influences on people’s attitudes. Many Americans have forgotten that inflation once got very high. Others might never have known this. People under 40 have no experience of the so-called Great Inflation from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s. They may have a harder time believing it matters.Research by Ulrike Malmendier from the University of California, Berkeley, and Stefan Nagel of the University of Chicago concluded that people’s beliefs about future inflation are shaped by their experience of it. This “explains the substantial disagreement between young and old individuals in periods of high inflation.”People who experienced the Great Inflation are more likely to fear high inflation around the corner than the young, who have lived mostly in an era in which inflation has rarely exceeded 2 percent. The young’s experience of economic stagnation during their formative years, after the housing bubble burst in 2008, is more likely to convince them that inflation can be too low, as it was back then, stymieing efforts by the Fed to reinvigorate the economy.Americans under 40 expect inflation to hit about 3.5 percent in three years, according to the most recent reading of the New York Fed’s survey. People over 60, by contrast, expect 4.7 percent. “Younger and older people tend to differ depending on the path inflation took in their past,” Mr. Nagel said.Even the experts — the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policymaking group, who pore through sophisticated economic models fed with reams of data — are influenced by youthful memories. “Whether and at what age they experienced the Great Inflation or other inflation realizations affects their stated beliefs about future inflation, their monetary-policy decisions, and the tone of their speeches,” according to another paper by Ms. Malmendier, Mr. Nagel and Zhen Yan from Cornerstone Research in Boston.The researchers do not have insight into the current view of committee members. Individual forecasts from the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, on which they based their analysis, are made available to the public only with a 10-year lag, starting in 1992. But their research helps explain a longstanding puzzle.The puzzle came in a study by the economists David and Christina Romer of the University of California, Berkeley, in the middle of the last recession, in 2008. They found that over time, forecasts from the members of the Federal Open Market Committee were less accurate than the collective forecast of the staff economists at the Federal Reserve. The deviation, according to Ms. Malmendier, Mr. Nagel and Mr. Yan is “explained by reliance on personal inflation experiences.”People not schooled in economics may have little clue about how inflation and monetary policy work. One study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; the University of California, Berkeley; the University of Texas at Austin, and Brandeis University found that the Fed’s momentous switch announced in August of last year to a flexible inflation target, which would allow the Fed to let inflation rise above its long-term target of 2 percent, was greeted by a collective “huh?”Corporate executives do little better. “Like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy,” wrote another group of economists in a separate study. “Inattention to inflation and monetary policy is pervasive among U.S. firms as well.”Fed officials acknowledge that their understanding of inflation psychology is, at best, imperfect. “We don’t know as a profession as much as we would like about how wage-price cycles get started,” Mr. Kocherlakota said. “How data on inflation translates into expectations is not well understood.”Given that knowledge gap, it is fair to ask whether the inflation expectations of ordinary Americans should play such a large role in shaping monetary policy.One study by economists at the International Monetary Fund, for instance, concluded that a tenet held dear by central bankers across the industrialized world since the 1980s — that moderating inflation expectations is central to taming inflation — was overstated. Rather, they suggested, inflation simply followed demography: Baby boomers contributed to inflation between 1955 and 1975, when they were young, consuming but not working. They reduced inflation between 1975 and 1990, when they joined the labor force. And they will drive it up again as they retire.Jeremy B. Rudd, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board, also worries that the proposition that managing expectations is critical to managing inflation is hogwash, with no solid theoretical or empirical underpinning.For instance, Mr. Rudd argues, the idea that workers who expect higher inflation in the future will try to stay ahead by negotiating higher wages with employers does not fit a country where only 6 percent of workers in the private sector are unionized and where there is little collective bargaining for wages.It would be foolhardy, for sure, to ignore people’s views on rising prices. Whatever the overall economic cost of higher inflation — and this is a contested question — people don’t like it.Lawrence H. Summers, who was an economic adviser to President Bill Clinton and to Mr. Obama, has been warning that a burst in inflation could help deliver the presidency to the Republican Party, as it did in 1968 and 1980.Richard Curtin, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan who runs its surveys of consumers, notes that three presidents in the 1960s and ’70s thought they had recipes to bring inflation down: Lyndon B. Johnson imposed a surtax on income, Richard Nixon resorted to wage and price controls, and Jimmy Carter went on TV to ask Americans to consume less. “Governments always think it is in their ability to quickly stop inflation and they never can,” Mr. Curtin said.Since then, central bankers became convinced that their job was first and foremost to anchor people’s expectations to the belief that inflation would remain low. They are unlikely to let go of the idea that they believe has served them so well for four decades.Mr. Kocherlakota has little personal experience of high inflation. He was a toddler when prices started coming unstuck in the 1960s. But he remembers an assignment in his first semester in college: “This is what Paul Volcker did. Comment.” The takeaway was that the pain inflicted on the economy by the central banker who finally crushed runaway inflation by cranking up interest rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s is to be avoided at all costs.“We let inflation expectations get unanchored,” Mr. Kocherlakota noted. As inflation hits 6 percent and people’s expectations of future inflation rise in tandem, he added, it would be foolhardy to let that happen again. “An honest way to play it now,” he said, “is that unanchoring is a risk we have to be cognizant of.” More

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    A Top Official Says the Fed Will ‘Grapple’ With a Faster Bond-Buying Taper

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    The president of the New York Federal Reserve said Omicron could prolong supply and demand mismatches, causing some inflation pressures to last.John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the latest variant of the coronavirus could prolong the bottlenecks and shortages that have caused inflation to run hotter than expected, and is a risk Fed officials will assess as they “grapple” with how quickly to remove economic support.It is still too soon to know how the Omicron variant, which public health officials in southern Africa identified just last week, will affect the economy, Mr. Williams said Tuesday in an interview with The New York Times. But if the new version of the virus leads to another wave of infections, it could exacerbate the disruptions that have caused prices to rise at their fastest pace in three decades.“Clearly, it adds a lot of uncertainty to the outlook,” Mr. Williams said of the new variant. He later added that a risk with the new variant is that it “will continue that excess demand in the areas that don’t have capacity, and will stall the recovery in the areas where we actually have the capacity.”That, he said, would “mean a somewhat slower rebound overall” and “also does increase those inflationary pressures, in those areas that are in high demand.”Mr. Williams’s comments are the latest indication that policymakers are growing more concerned about inflation and are weighing how to respond. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, signaled on Tuesday that the central bank could move to withdraw economic support more quickly than it initially expected and suggested that such a decision could come as soon as the Fed’s December meeting.The Fed had been buying $120 billion in government-backed securities each month throughout much of the pandemic to bolster the economy by keeping money flowing in financial markets. In November, officials announced plans to wind down that program gradually through the end of the year and the first half of 2022, a process known as “tapering.” But Mr. Powell indicated on Tuesday that the central bank could wrap up its bond-buying more quickly.Mr. Williams, who is vice chair of the Fed’s policymaking Open Market Committee and is a top adviser to Mr. Powell, did not explicitly endorse a faster tapering process, saying that “there’s a lot to learn and digest and think about coming up to the next meeting.”.css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-19zsuqr{display:block;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}But he emphasized that the economy had rebounded more strongly this year than he and other officials had been expecting, and said the unemployment rate had fallen quickly. That economic strengthening at a moment of high inflation may warrant less Fed support, he said.“The question is: Would it make sense to end those purchases somewhat earlier, by maybe a few months, given how strong the economy is?” he said. “That’s a decision, discussion, I expect we’ll have to grapple with.”Inflation has proved a thornier problem than the Fed and most private-sector economists predicted earlier this year. In March, Fed officials said they expected their preferred inflation measure to show consumer prices rising at 2.4 percent at the end of 2021; by September, they had revised that forecast to 4.2 percent.That’s likely to increase further. The central bank’s preferred inflation gauge climbed 5 percent in its most recent reading. Policymakers are closely watching to see what happens in a Consumer Price Index report set for release on Dec. 10, just before the Fed’s meeting on Dec. 14 and 15.Mr. Williams acknowledged that inflation had proved stronger and more lasting than he initially expected. But he said the error wasn’t the result of a misunderstanding of how the economy works; rather, it was his failure to anticipate the resurgence of the pandemic itself. Mr. Powell made similar comments in his testimony before the Senate on Tuesday.The spread of the Delta variant over the summer delayed the return of workers to the labor force by disrupting child care and making some people nervous to return to in-person work. It also contributed to supply-chain issues by causing a new round of factory shutdowns in some parts of the world and by extending the pandemic-era shift in consumer spending away from services and toward goods.Empty office space in New York this summer when the Delta variant wave delayed the return of workers. A new wave of cases could lead to more and longer-lasting inflation.Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York Times“These are all things that are driven — I think in large part, not totally, but in large part — to Covid, and the ability so far for us to get control of that,” he said. “This is just lasting a lot longer than expected.”The new variant, Mr. Williams added, “has that potential to just extend this process we’ve been going through.”If the Omicron variant further delays the return of workers and the easing of supply shortages, that could lead to more and longer-lasting inflation. But a new wave of virus cases could also hurt the demand side of the economy, leading people to spend less at restaurants and movie theaters and provoking a new wave of layoffs.Understand the Supply Chain CrisisCard 1 of 5Covid’s impact on the supply chain continues. More