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    in Economy

    Inflation Cooled Further in September, PCE Index Shows

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    Overall inflation slowed in September from a year earlier, though some signs of stubbornness lingered under the surface.Inflation has been cooling for two years, and fresh data released on Thursday showed that trend continued in September. Prices climbed just 2.1 percent compared with a year earlier.That is nearly back to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation goal — good news for both the Fed and the White House. It is also slower than the previous reading, which stood at 2.3 percent.Still, the report also shows evidence that price increases remain stickier under the surface.A closely watched inflation measure that strips out volatile food and fuel costs to give a sense of the underlying trend in prices was up 2.7 percent in September compared with a year earlier. That “core” inflation figure was unchanged from the previous reading, a sign that it was proving slow to cool. And on a monthly basis, core inflation actually accelerated slightly.While the figures were largely in line with what economists had expected, the stubbornness in core inflation reinforced that the Fed’s campaign to wrestle price increases back under control was not entirely finished.“All in all, this is a relatively good report,” said Omair Sharif, founder of the firm Inflation Insights. But he added that he thought core inflation could remain too quick for comfort in coming months, before fading more completely early next year.“It’s not a mission accomplished kind of number,” he said.The Fed lifted interest rates sharply in 2022 and early 2023 to try to slow the economy and wrestle inflation under control. But officials slashed them by half a percentage point in September, cutting interest rates for the first time in four years.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Inflation Is Basically Back to Normal. Why Do Voters Still Feel Blah?

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    Consumers still give the economy poor marks, though the job market is strong and price increases have faded for months.Grocery inflation has been cooling sharply, but Tamira Flamer, 27, says she hasn’t noticed. What she knows is that paper plates and meat remain more expensive than they were a few years ago.“I feel like it’s been rough,” said Ms. Flamer, a mother of two who drives for Amazon, while standing outside a Dollar General near her home in Norristown, Pa., on Sunday.Ms. Flamer, an undecided voter who says she is most focused on economic issues, underscores a challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential election barrels toward its final days.Voters say that they are very focused on the economy as they head to the polls, yet surveys suggest that they feel relatively glum about its recent track record. That could hurt Ms. Harris while helping her opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.The lingering pessimism is also something of a puzzle. The job market has been chugging along, although more slowly, overall growth has been healthy and even inflation is more or less back to normal. Inflation data released on Thursday showed that prices have increased by a mild 2.1 percent over the past year.Confidence has crept back up as inflation has cooled, but it remains much lower than it was the last time the economy looked as solid as it does today. That is true for both the University of Michigan’s confidence index and a separate measure produced by the Conference Board, an organization that conducts business and economic research.Large Swing in Republican ConfidenceRepublicans were optimistic about the economy when former President Donald J. Trump was in office, and turned more negative as soon as President Biden was elected.

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    Consumer Confidence Index
    Source: University of Michigan By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    Walmart Holiday Shopping Plans Are Laid Months Before Black Friday

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    To prepare for ever-longer shopping season, thousands of employees were assembled for a retail jamboree in Florida’s August heat.It felt like calculated chaos inside the chilly convention center where Walmart had recreated one of its Supercenter stores. It was late August in Orlando, Fla., and the retailer had flown in thousands of workers to have a look. They were zipping around, trying to take it all in.There were dozens of lit-up Christmas trees and poinsettias, rows of Halloween candy, and racks of knit dresses and sweaters. A Minnie Mouse mascot danced around the toy section, while wacky inflatable ghosts and foxes hovered above the inflatable jack-o’-lanterns in a pumpkin patch. Along the way, Walmart workers were chowing down on samples of pulled pork and chips, Oreo cookies and ice cream.A candy cane door frame welcomed people to the North Pole — and into Walmart’s annual business meeting for the holiday shopping season.On that sweltering day, the nation’s largest retailer was trying to set the mood for holidays that were still months off. But foremost on the agenda for the 6,700 attendees was Walmart’s slate of fall and winter events.Beyond the festive mood, the holiday season is full of high stakes. It’s the busiest quarter of the year for most retailers, and Walmart’s preparations offer insights into consumer behavior and the state of the retail industry.Last year, Walmart began to see people starting their holiday shopping in earnest around Halloween.Todd Anderson for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    G.M.’s Electric Vehicle Sales Surge as Ford Loses Billions

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    Ford is struggling to make money on battery-powered models while General Motors, which started more slowly, says it is getting close to that goal.In the race to be second to Tesla in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Ford Motor leaped to an early lead four years ago over its crosstown rival, General Motors, with the Mustang Mach E, an electric sport utility vehicle with a design and a name that nodded to its classic sports car.But the contest looks much different today.Sales of G.M.’s battery-powered models are starting to surge as the company begins to reap its big investments in standardized batteries and new factories. Ford’s three electric models, including the F-150 Lightning pickup truck and a Transit van, are still selling well but are racking up billions of dollars of losses.The latest view into how Ford’s quick-start strategy has run into trouble came on Monday, when the company reported that its electric vehicle division lost $1.2 billion before interest and taxes from July to September. In the first nine months of the year, it lost $3.7 billion.Ford’s chief financial officer, John Lawler, said it was a “solid quarter,” noting that revenue had risen for the 10th quarter in a row, by 5 percent to $46.2 billion. But the company’s overall profit of $896 million in the third quarter was down 24 percent from a year earlier, largely because of problems with electric vehicles, warranty costs and other factors.“Our strategic advantages are not falling to the bottom line the way they should because of cost,” Mr. Lawler said.Ford made an early entry into the electric vehicle market compared to other established automakers with the Mustang Mach E.David Zalubowski/Associated PressWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Have Paychecks Kept Up With the Cost of Living?

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    On average, pay has risen faster than prices in recent years. But the overall picture is complicated — and it’s not just facts versus “vibes.”Have Americans’ paychecks kept up with the cost of living over the past several years?It is a surprisingly difficult question to answer.According to most Americans, the answer is a clear “no.” In polls and interviews ahead of the presidential election, people of virtually all ideologies and income levels say inflation has made it harder to make ends meet, eclipsing whatever raises they have managed to win from their employers.According to economic data, the answer appears, at least on the surface, to be “yes.” Income and earnings have outpaced inflation since the start of the pandemic, according to a variety of both government and private-sector sources. That is especially true for the lowest earners — a partial reversal of the rising inequality of recent decades.But this is not a simple case of facts versus “vibes.” Economic statistics are based on broad averages. Dig deeper, and the story becomes more complicated. How a given family or individual has fared over the past five years depends on a litany of factors: whether the earners own their home or rent; whether they had to buy a car or send a child to day care; whether they were able to change jobs or demand a raise.“I feel like some people are being very dismissive, saying, ‘Oh, people are wrong — there has been all this real wage growth,’ but that is a simple average,” said Stefanie Stantcheva, a Harvard economist who has studied how people experience inflation. “It’s actually very, very hard to say people are wrong — I would almost never say that.”The bottom line: Most American workers are probably making more money today, adjusted for inflation, than they were in 2019. But not all have seen their pay keep up with their own cost of living, and many — perhaps most — are lagging behind where they would be if prepandemic trends had continued unabated. Those complications may help explain why so many Americans believe they have fallen behind.

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    Change since end of 2019 in various earnings measures
    Notes: After-tax income is per capita and excludes government transfer payments and is adjusted for inflation by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Hourly earnings are for production and nonsupervisory workers and are adjusted for inflation by the CPI-W. Median weekly earnings are for full-time workers and are adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U. Average weekly earnings are for all workers and are also adjusted using the CPI-U. All series are monthly except for median weekly earnings, which are quarterly.Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBy The New York Times

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    Change in inflation-adjusted weekly earnings by wage level, 2019-2024
    Note: Change is measured in the third quarter of each year, not seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York Times

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    Median weekly earnings vs. prepandemic trend
    Notes: Earnings are shown in 2023 dollars and are for full-time workers. Data is seasonally adjusted. Trend line is based on 2014 to 2019 data.Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    The Best Books About the Economy to Read Before the 2024 Election

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    Voters are forever worried about the economy — the price of homes and groceries, the rise and fall of the stock market, and, of course, taxes — but the economic policies that affect these things often seem unapproachable. Donald Trump wants to cut taxes and raise tariffs. Kamala Harris wants to raise taxes on high-income households and expand the social safety net. But what does that mean? And what are they hoping to achieve?Part of what makes economic policy difficult is the need to understand not just the direct impact of a change but also its many indirect effects. A tax credit to buy houses, for example, might end up benefiting home sellers more than home purchasers if a surge in demand drives up prices.The mathematics and jargon that economists use in journals facilitate precise scientific communication, which has the indirect effect of excluding everyone else. Meanwhile, the “economists” you see on TV or hear on the radio are more often telling you (usually incorrectly) whether the economy will go into recession without explaining why.But some authors do a good job of walking the line between accessibility and expertise. Here are five books to help you crack the nut on the economy before Election Day.The Little Book of EconomicsBy Greg IpThe best way to understand things like the causes of recessions and inflation and the consequences of public debt is to take an introductory economics course and do all the problem sets. The second-best way? Read “The Little Book of Economics.” Don’t be fooled by its compact form and breezy writing: This book, by the Wall Street Journal chief economics commentator Greg Ip, manages to pack in just about everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask about the gross domestic product.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Russian Oil Flows Through Western ‘Price Cap’ as Shadow Fleet Grows

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    A report shows how Russia has largely evaded sanctions aimed at limiting its revenue from oil sales.A plan hatched by wealthy Western nations to deprive Russia of oil revenue is largely faltering, a new report found, with the majority of the Kremlin’s seaborne oil exports evading restrictions that were supposed to limit the price of Russian crude.Almost two years since an oil “price cap” was enacted, nearly 70 percent of the Kremlin’s oil is being transported on “shadow tankers” that are evading the restrictions, according to an analysis published by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, a Ukraine-based think tank.Russia’s success at circumventing the sanctions imposed by the Group of 7 nations has allowed it to continue to finance its war against Ukraine. The effectiveness of the price cap has been marred by loose enforcement of the policy. Officials in the United States and Europe have tried to balance their goals of crippling Russia’s economy while keeping oil markets well supplied to prevent price spikes.The challenges underscore the limitations that the world’s advanced economies have been facing as they attempt to intervene in global energy markets to try to hasten an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The Kyiv School of Economics Institute, which has argued for tougher sanctions on Russian oil, noted in its report that Russia’s shadow fleet poses a threat to the world’s oceans because the tankers are often poorly maintained and not properly insured.“There have been several instances of shadow tankers being involved in collisions or coming close to running aground in recent months,” the report said. “Large oil spills have so far been avoided but a major disaster is waiting to happen and cleanup costs would reach billions.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Boeing and Workers Dig In for a Long Fight, Despite Strike’s Cost

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    Nearly a month into a union walkout, the aerospace giant withdrew its latest contract offer, and the two sides exchanged blame over the breakdown.Boeing and its largest union appear to be digging in for a long fight — even as some striking workers start to look for temporary jobs and the company risks having its credit rating downgraded to junk status.Nearly a month into the strike, negotiations between Boeing and the union resumed this week under federal mediation after a long break. But they collapsed on Tuesday with the company withdrawing its latest offer. The two sides traded blame for the breakdown.In a message to employees, Stephanie Pope, the chief executive of Boeing’s commercial airplane unit, said the union had made “demands far in excess of what can be accepted if we are to remain competitive as a business.”The union accused Boeing of being “hellbent” on sticking to the offer that labor leaders had previously rejected for being insufficient to garner the support of most of its more than 33,000 members.A long strike is the last thing Boeing needs. The company, which hasn’t reported a full-year profit since 2018, is now losing tens of millions of dollars more every day that striking workers are not building planes. Boeing is also trying to persuade regulators to let it produce more 737 Max jets, its best-selling plane. And on Tuesday, S&P Global Ratings said it was considering lowering the company’s credit rating, which sits just above junk status, depending on the strike’s length.The walkout, which began on Sept. 13, is also difficult for workers, many of whom are living off savings and have had to find health coverage after Boeing dropped them from its plan this month.Do you work with Boeing?We want to hear from people who have experience working at or with Boeing to better understand what we should be covering. We may use your contact information to follow up with you. We will not publish any part of your submission without your permission. If you have information that you want to share with The New York Times using tools that can help protect your anonymity, visit: https://www.nytimes.com/tips.

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