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    Biden Plans Sanctions on Russian Lawmakers as He Heads to Europe

    A chief goal of the meetings this week is to show that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will not lead to sniping and disagreement among the United States and its allies.WASHINGTON — President Biden will announce sanctions this week on hundreds of members of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, according to a White House official familiar with the announcement, as the United States and its allies reach for even stronger measures to punish President Vladimir V. Putin for his monthlong invasion of Ukraine.The announcement is scheduled to be made during a series of global summits in Europe on Thursday, when Mr. Biden will press Western leaders for even more aggressive economic actions against Russia as its forces continue to rain destruction on cities in Ukraine.In Brussels on Thursday, Mr. Biden and other leaders will announce a “next phase” of military assistance to Ukraine, new plans to expand and enforce economic sanctions, and an effort to further bolster NATO defenses along the border with Russia, Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said on Tuesday.“The president is traveling to Europe to ensure we stay united, to cement our collective resolve, to send a powerful message that we are prepared and committed to this for as long as it takes,” Mr. Sullivan told reporters.Officials declined to be specific about the announcements, saying the president will wrap up the details of new sanctions and other steps during his deliberations in Brussels. But Mr. Biden faces a steep challenge as he works to confront Mr. Putin’s war, which Mr. Sullivan said “will not end easily or rapidly.”The sanctions on Russian lawmakers, which were reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, will affect hundreds of members of the State Duma, the lower house of Parliament, according to the official, who requested anonymity to discuss diplomatic deliberations that have not yet been publicly acknowledged.Earlier this month, the United States announced financial sanctions on 12 members of the Duma. The announcement on Thursday will go far beyond those sanctions in what one senior official called a “very sweeping” action. Another official said details of the sanctions were still being finalized.The NATO alliance has already pushed the limits of economic sanctions imposed by European countries, which are dependent on Russian energy. And the alliance has largely exhausted most of its military options — short of a direct confrontation with Russia, which Mr. Biden has said could result in World War III.That leaves the president and his counterparts with a relatively short list of announcements they can deliver on Thursday after three back-to-back, closed-door meetings. Mr. Sullivan said there will be “new designations, new targets” for sanctions inside Russia. And he said the United States would make new announcements about efforts to help European nations wean themselves off Russian energy.Still, the chief goal of the summits — which have come together in just a week’s time through diplomats in dozens of countries — may be a further public declaration that Mr. Putin’s invasion will not lead to sniping and disagreement among the allies.Despite Russia’s intention to “divide and weaken the West,” Mr. Sullivan said, the allies in Europe and elsewhere have remained “more united, more determined and more purposeful than at any point in recent memory.”A damaged residential building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Friday.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesSo far, that unity has done little to limit the violence in Ukraine. The United States and Europe have already imposed the broadest array of economic sanctions ever on a country of Russia’s size and wealth, and there have been early signs that loopholes have blunted some of the bite that the sanctions on Russia’s central bank and major financial institutions were intended to have on its economy.Despite speculation that Russia might default on its sovereign debt last week, it was able to make interest payments on $117 million due on two bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. And after initially plunging to record lows this month, the ruble has since stabilized.Russia was able to avert default for now because of an exception built into the sanctions that allowed it to continue making payments in dollars through May 25. That loophole protects foreign investors and gives Russia more time to devastate Ukraine without feeling the full wrath of the sanctions.Meanwhile, although about half of Russia’s $640 billion in foreign reserves is frozen, it has been able to rebuild that by continuing to sell energy to Europe and other places.“The fact that Russia is generating a large trade and current account surplus because of energy exports means that Russia is generating a constant hard currency flow in euros and dollars,” said Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. “If you’re looking at sanctions evasion or the effectiveness of sanctions, this was always a major loophole.”The president is scheduled to depart Washington on Wednesday morning before summits on Thursday with NATO, the Group of 7 nations and the European Council, a meeting of all 27 leaders of European Union countries. On Friday, Mr. Biden will head to Poland, where he will discuss the Ukrainian refugees who have flooded into the country since the start of the war. He will also visit with American troops stationed in Poland as part of NATO forces.Mr. Biden is expected to meet with President Andrzej Duda of Poland on Saturday before returning to the White House later that day.White House officials said a key part of the announcements in Brussels would be new enforcement measures aimed at making sure Russia is not able to evade the intended impact of sanctions.“That announcement will focus not just on adding new sanctions,” Mr. Sullivan said, “but on ensuring that there is a joint effort to crack down on evasion on sanctions-busting, on any attempt by any country to help Russia basically undermine, weaken or get around the sanctions.”He added later, “So stay tuned for that.”Sanctions experts have suggested that Western allies could allow Russian energy exports to continue but insist that payments be held in escrow accounts until Mr. Putin halts the invasion. That would borrow from the playbook the United States used with Iran, when it allowed some oil exports but required the revenue from those transactions to be held in accounts that could be used only to finance bilateral trade.Russia-Ukraine War: Key DevelopmentsCard 1 of 3A new diplomatic push. More

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    Ukraine Energy Company C.E.O. Tries to Keep Lights On During War

    Keeping millions of customers in Ukraine supplied with electric power amid the Russian invasion is, to say the least, challenging. Especially when the electrical grid itself becomes a target. “What we see now is that they attack transmission lines, substations, power generating stations,” said Maxim Timchenko, chief executive of DTEK, a large private Ukrainian energy company. In the early days of the war, he said, the Russian military seemed to be wary of wrecking critical civilian infrastructure.Now, he said, “they are not selective anymore.”In a video call from an undisclosed location in western Ukraine, Mr. Timchenko described how DTEK, which supplies about 20 percent of Ukraine’s electricity, and other Ukrainian utilities were scrambling to keep the lights on during the Russian onslaught.Amid the urgency, Ukraine, which is not a member of the European Union, has also managed to achieve something in a matter of weeks that it had worked on for years: a linkup to the power grids of neighboring E.U. countries, including, according to Mr. Timchenko, Romania, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary.“This will help Ukraine to keep their electricity system stable, homes warm and lights on during these dark times,” said Europe’s energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, in a statement. “In this area, Ukraine is now part of Europe,” she added.In case of a major hit to its power system, Ukraine could now apply for emergency electricity supplies from the European system, Mr. Timchenko said. Ukraine also severed its electricity links to Russia and Belarus just before the invasion to establish independence from power sources in hostile countries.When its transmission lines are damaged or severed, DTEK arranges for Ukrainian soldiers to escort its emergency repair crews, dressed in flak jackets, to reach affected sites. Mr. Timchenko said six of DTEK’s roughly 60,000 employees had been killed during the war, although not while performing duties for the company.The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global EconomyCard 1 of 6Rising concerns. More

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    Russia Asked China for Military and Economic Aid for Ukraine War, U.S. Officials Say

    WASHINGTON — Russia asked China to give it military equipment and support for the war in Ukraine after President Vladimir V. Putin began a full-scale invasion last month, according to U.S. officials.Russia has also asked China for additional economic assistance, to help counteract the battering its economy has taken from broad sanctions imposed by the United States and European and Asian nations, according to an official.American officials, determined to keep secret their means of collecting the intelligence on Russia’s requests, declined to describe further the kind of military weapons or aid that Moscow is seeking. The officials also declined to discuss any reaction by China to the requests.President Xi Jinping of China has strengthened a partnership with Mr. Putin and has stood by him as Russia has stepped up its military campaign in Ukraine, destroying cities and killing hundreds or thousands of civilians. American officials are watching China closely to see whether it will act on any requests of aid from Russia. Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, is scheduled to meet on Monday in Rome with Yang Jiechi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s elite Politburo and director of the party’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission.Mr. Sullivan intends to warn Mr. Yang about any future Chinese efforts to bolster Russia in its war or undercut Ukraine, the United States and their partners.“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,” Mr. Sullivan said on CNN on Sunday.“We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in the world,” he said.Mr. Sullivan did not make any explicit mention of potential military support from China, but other U.S. officials spoke about the request from Russia on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of diplomatic and intelligence matters.Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said he had never heard of the request from Russia. “The current situation in Ukraine is indeed disconcerting,” he said, adding that Beijing wants to see a peaceful settlement. “The high priority now is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or even getting out of control.”The Biden administration is seeking to lay out for China the consequences of its alignment with Russia and penalties it will incur if it continues or increases its support. Some U.S. officials argue it might be possible to dissuade Beijing from ramping up its assistance to Moscow. Chinese leaders may be content to offer rhetorical support for Moscow and may not want to further enmesh themselves with Mr. Putin by providing military support for the war, those U.S. officials say.Mr. Sullivan said China “was aware before the invasion took place that Vladimir Putin was planning something,” but added that the Chinese might not have known the full extent of the Russian leader’s plans. “It’s very possible that Putin lied to them, the same way he lied to Europeans and others,” he said.Mr. Xi has met with Mr. Putin 38 times as national leaders, more than with any other head of state, and the two share a drive to weaken American power.Traditionally, China has bought military equipment from Russia rather than the other way around. Russia has increased its sales of weaponry to China in recent years. But China has advanced missile and drone capabilities that Russia could use in its Ukraine campaign.Although Russia on Sunday launched a missile barrage on a military training ground in western Ukraine that killed at least 35 people, there has been some evidence that Russian missile supplies have been running low, according to independent analysts.Last week, the White House criticized China for helping spread Kremlin disinformation about the United States and Ukraine. In recent days, Chinese diplomats, state media organizations and government agencies have used a range of platforms and official social media accounts to amplify a conspiracy theory that says the Pentagon has been financing biological and chemical weapons labs in Ukraine. Right-wing political figures in the United States have also promoted the theory.On Friday, Russia called a United Nations Security Council meeting to present its claims about the labs, and the Chinese ambassador to the U.N., Zhang Jun, supported his Russian counterpart.“Now that Russia has made these false claims, and China has seemingly endorsed this propaganda, we should all be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, or to create a false flag operation using them,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, wrote on Twitter last Wednesday.China is also involved in the Iran nuclear negotiations, which have stalled because of new demands from Russia on relief from the sanctions imposed by Western nations in response to the Ukraine war.American officials are trying to determine to what degree China would support Russia’s position in those talks. Before Russia raised the requests, officials from the nations involved had been close to clinching a return to a version of the Obama-era nuclear limits agreement from which President Donald J. Trump withdrew. Mr. Sullivan might bring up Iran with Mr. Yang on Monday.Current and former U.S. officials say the Rome meeting is important, given the lives at stake in the Ukraine war and the possibility of Russia and China presenting a geopolitical united front against the United States and its allies in the years ahead.“This meeting is critical and possibly a defining moment in the relationship,” said Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University professor who was a senior Asia director on the National Security Council during the Obama administration.“I think what the U.S. is probably going to do is lay out the costs and consequences of China’s complicity and possible enabling of Russia’s invasion,” he said. “I don’t think anyone in the administration has illusions that the U.S. can pull China away from Russia.”Some U.S. officials are looking for ways to compel Mr. Xi to distance himself from Mr. Putin on the war. Others see Mr. Xi as a lost cause and prefer to treat China and Russia as committed partners, hoping that might galvanize policies and coordination among Asian and European allies to contain them both.Chinese officials have consistently voiced sympathy for Russia during the Ukraine war by reiterating Mr. Putin’s criticism of NATO and blaming the United States for starting the conflict. They have refrained from any mention of a Russian “war” or “invasion,” even as they express general concern for the humanitarian crisis.They mention support for “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a common catchphrase in Chinese diplomacy, but do not say explicitly which nation’s sovereignty they support — meaning the phrase could be interpreted as backing for Ukraine or an endorsement of Mr. Putin’s claims to restoring the territory of imperial Russia.Russia-Ukraine War: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 3Expanding the war. More

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    IMF Warns Ukraine-Russia War Will Likely Slow Global Growth

    The war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions that countries around the world have imposed on Russia are likely to cause a downgrade of the International Monetary Fund’s global economic growth forecast, Kristalina Georgieva, the I.M.F.’s managing director, said on Thursday.The Ukraine crisis is another shock to a world economy that was just emerging from the coronavirus pandemic, and it has been compounding global supply chain disruptions and inflation headwinds that have been cause for concern. The full impact on the world economy remains uncertain, I.M.F. officials said, and will depend on the outcome of the war and how long sanctions remain.“We just got through a crisis like no other with the pandemic, and we are now in an even more shocking territory,” Ms. Georgieva told reporters. “The unthinkable happened — we have a war in Europe.”In January, the I.M.F. reduced its estimated global growth rate for 2022 to 4.4 percent, from the 4.9 percent it had projected last year, as a result of slowdowns in the United States and China.Ms. Georgieva said the most significant threat to the world economy was greater inflation coming from higher commodity prices as countries shifted consumption away from Russian oil and gas. This, in turn, could eat into consumer spending. Worsening financial conditions and business confidence also have the potential to weigh on growth.“The surging prices for energy and other commodities — corn, metals, inputs for fertilizers, semiconductors — they are coming, in many countries, on top of already high inflation and are causing grave concern in so many places around the world,” Ms. Georgieva said.The I.M.F. is working to develop a plan to provide more assistance for Ukraine’s eventual rebuilding effort, but said it was too soon to know the extent of the country’s needs. This week, the fund’s executive board approved $1.4 billion in emergency financing.Ukraine’s top economic adviser said earlier on Thursday that Russia had already destroyed $100 billion worth of the country’s assets.The fund is also assessing the impact of the sanctions on the economy of Russia. Much of its financial sector and its central bank has been blacklisted.“The Russian economy is contracting, and the recession in Russia is going to be deep,” Ms. Georgieva said. “That is already clear.”She said Russia was unlikely to have access to its emergency currency reserves because of sanctions.The I.M.F. has halted operations and programs in Russia. Ms. Georgieva said there had been no discussions about ending Russia’s membership in the fund. More

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    How a Ban Russian Oil Imports Could Affect the U.S. Economy

    The ban on Russian oil imports announced by President Biden on Tuesday could have meaningful consequences for the U.S. economy, pushing prices at the gas pump higher when inflation is already rapid, although how long-lasting that impact might be remains uncertain.“We’re banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy,” Mr. Biden said, speaking at a White House briefing. He said the plan would target the “main artery” of the Russian economy. While he acknowledged that the move would likely push gas prices up, he blamed Russian aggression for that reality.The ban applies to imports of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal. It also prohibits new U.S. investments in Russia’s energy sector. And it blocks Americans from financing or enabling foreign companies that are making investments to produce energy in Russia.Europe imports far more of its supply from Russia than the United States, but energy markets are global, and the mere threat of a ban has pushed commodity prices higher in recent days.“Things have been so volatile,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, noting that it was difficult to tell how much of the rise in oil prices in recent days traces back to this specific ban. But the conflict in Ukraine is clearly pushing commodity gas prices higher — so much so that the national average gas price could rise to nearly $4.50 this month, he said, “assuming we don’t move any more.”While the oil and gas ban is almost sure to push inflation higher in the United States, economists have said that the scale of the economic consequences would depend in large part on how it was structured. For instance, it would likely make a big difference globally and in markets if Europeans also ban Russian oil and gas imports, and it is not yet clear whether or to what extent that will happen.A ban across many countries “would severely reduce and disrupt energy supply on a global scale and already high commodity prices would rise,” Caroline Bain, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note ahead of the announcement, estimating that the price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, would settle in at about $160 per barrel in that case.The Brent crude price jumped by about 6 percent to roughly $130 per barrel by the middle of the day Tuesday. By comparison, it was about $78 per barrel at the end of 2021.The 10 Largest Oil Producers in 2020

    Source: Energy Information AdministrationBy The New York TimesIt is not yet clear how many countries will adopt a similar ban: The White House signaled this week that the United States could act separately in blocking imports of Russian oil, noting that countries in Europe are more reliant on Russian energy, something Mr. Biden also alluded to on Tuesday.“Many of our European allies and partners may not be in a position to join us,” he said, but added that allies “remain united in our purpose” to inflict pain on Russia’s war effort. That includes efforts by the European Union to lessen its dependence on Russian energy.Britain indicated on Tuesday that it would take its own steps to ban imports of Russian energy products. Kwasi Kwarteng, the country’s business and energy secretary, said that it would phase out imports of Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022.Other European countries are under increasing pressure to follow suit.“Everything’s on the table,” Franck Riester, the French minister for foreign trade, told the franceinfo radio station on Monday, adding that France had to look at potential bans on oil and gas imports from Russia with regard to “consequences in terms of pressure on Russia and in terms of economic, financial and social impacts in Europe.”The office of President Emmanuel Macron of France said on Tuesday evening that the country had to coordinate with the European Union before taking any further steps, but acknowledged Europe’s need to reduce its reliance on Russia.“The United States is not dependent on Russian oil and gas, but the European partners are,” Mr. Macron’s office said in a statement. “We have a long-term policy of getting rid of the dependence on Russian oil and gas, but in the immediate future we need to discuss this with our European partners.”While Italy is very dependent on Russian gas, the nation’s government has said that if the European Union decided to cut off its consumption of Russian gas and oil, Italy would not oppose the effort.The direct U.S. economic impact from the loss of Russian oil is likely to be notable, though less severe than what would happen in Europe. According to the International Energy Agency, the United States imported less than 700,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia in 2021. That represents less than 10 percent of what the United States imports globally.Higher global oil and gas commodity prices and rising prices at the pump will add to the inflationary pain that is already dogging consumers. Prices are climbing at the fastest pace in 40 years, and data this week is expected to show that the annual increase climbed higher in February.The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global EconomyCard 1 of 6Rising concerns. More

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    Biden Bans Oil Imports From Russia, Warning Gas Prices Will Rise

    Officials said President Biden had struggled for days over the move amid deep concerns about accelerating the already rapid rise in the price of gasoline.WASHINGTON — President Biden on Tuesday banned imports of Russian oil, gas and coal in response to what he called President Vladimir V. Putin’s “vicious war of choice” in Ukraine, but warned Americans that the decision to inflict economic pain on Russia would inevitably mean higher gas prices at home.“Defending freedom is going to cost,” Mr. Biden said in televised remarks announcing the ban at the White House.The president’s move immediately shut off a relatively small flow of oil into the United States, but it was quickly followed by a British pledge to phase out imports of Russian oil by the end of the year and a declaration from the European Commission — the executive arm of the European Union, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas — to make itself independent of that supply in the coming years.The impact of the decisions quickly rippled across the global energy market amid fears that the supply of oil would shrink. In the United States, the national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline, which had already surged in recent weeks, reached $4.173, not adjusted for inflation, a new high and an average increase of about 72 cents from only a month ago, according to AAA.“If we do not respond to Putin’s assault on global peace and stability today, the cost of freedom and to the American people will be even greater tomorrow,” Mr. Biden said.He vowed to “do everything I can to minimize Putin’s price hike here at home.”Under intense, bipartisan pressure from lawmakers to deny Russia any more oil revenue from Americans, Mr. Biden acted without the unity among allies that has characterized most of the response to Russia’s aggression during the past several months.The moves by Britain and the E.U. fell short of Mr. Biden’s ban. Franck Riester, the French minister for foreign trade, told the Franceinfo radio station on Monday that “everything’s on the table,” but that officials would need to consider “consequences” from an energy ban. In Italy, which imports more than 40 percent of its energy as Russian gas, Prime Minister Mario Draghi has said the overdependence on Russian gas is a strategic weakness for the country.Even as Mr. Biden spoke, describing his ban as “another powerful blow to Putin’s war machine,” a new wave of major corporations across the world began shutting down their operations in Russia on Tuesday.Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, said it would begin withdrawing from its involvement “in all Russian hydrocarbons,” including an immediate halt to all spot purchases of Russian crude and the shuttering of its service stations in the country. McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Pepsico and Starbucks announced that they would temporarily close all restaurants and pause all operations in Russia in response to the invasion in Ukraine. Amazon stopped letting customers in Russia and Belarus open new cloud computing accounts.An oil refinery in Omsk, Russia. About 12 percent of the world’s oil and 17 percent of its natural gas comes from Russia, according to estimates from J.P. Morgan.Alexey Malgavko/ReutersOfficials said Mr. Biden had struggled for days over whether to cut off Russian oil amid fears of accelerating the already rapid rise in the price of gasoline. It is a potent political issue for Americans in an election year and a test of how much voters are willing to sacrifice in defense of Ukraine.Even into the weekend, as a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House tried to finalize legislation to impose a ban on Russian oil, the White House expressed deep concerns, according to officials monitoring the discussions, who said the administration appeared wary of letting Congress take the lead on enacting a ban.A vote on the House bill, which is supported by Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, was delayed late Tuesday.The president and his aides have discussed a series of additional moves to blunt the impact of the ban, including additional releases from strategic oil reserves. Last week, the United States committed to releasing 30 million barrels of oil, joining 30 other nations for a total release of 60 million barrels.Administration officials have also held diplomatic conversations with other oil-producing nations, including Venezuela, about increasing the flow of oil to keep prices stable. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, on Monday confirmed discussions with Venezuela about “energy security” and other issues, but declined to elaborate.Any barrels the United States imports to replace Russian oil will come from a global market that is already stretched. Unless and until Russia finds alternative buyers, the constraint on available supplies is likely to keep prices high.U.S. consumers are already feeling the squeeze. In California, prices for some types of gas has hovered around $6 in recent days; on Tuesday the state average was well over $5.Republicans on Tuesday largely backed Mr. Biden’s decision to cut off Russian oil, giving the president a rare moment of bipartisan support. But even as they did so, many Republicans once again seized on high prices at the pump to criticize him and his party.“Democrats want to blame surging prices on Russia,” Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the House Republican leader, said on Tuesday. “But the truth is, their out-of-touch policies are why we are here in the first place.”In his remarks, Mr. Biden cast the decision as a moral one, aimed at further crippling Mr. Putin’s economy as Russian forces continued their brutal bombardment of civilians in several of Ukraine’s cities and suburbs after two grueling weeks of war in Europe.“Ukrainian people have inspired the world and I mean that in the literal sense,” Mr. Biden said. “They’ve inspired the world with their bravery, their patriotism, their defiant determination to live free. Putin’s war has caused enormous suffering and needless loss of life of women, children, and everyone in Ukraine.”He added: “Putin seems determined to continue on his murderous path, no matter the cost.”Battles continued to rage across Ukraine on Tuesday as humanitarian officials reported that two million refugees have fled the country seeking safety. But casualties increased as evacuations though supposed “green corridors” continued to come under fire.About 2,000 civilians were able to escape Irpin, a suburb just northwest of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, which has spent days without water, power and heat because of the heavy fighting in the area. In the war-battered city of Sumy, east of Kyiv, one humanitarian corridor lasted long enough to allow hundreds of civilians to escape in a convoy of buses led by the Red Cross.Civilians were evacuated from Irpin, Ukraine on Tuesday.Lynsey Addario for The New York TimesBut hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians remain trapped in the besieged southern city of Mariupol.The Ukrainian military claimed to have shot down three Russian fighter jets and a cruise missile early Tuesday, an assertion that appeared to be backed up by several loud explosions over Kyiv, a potential sign that Ukraine’s air defense systems and air force are still functioning.President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine taunted Mr. Putin on Tuesday with a video showing him in his office in Kyiv and saying: “I’m not hiding. And I’m not afraid of anyone.” Mr. Zelensky also spoke by video link to a packed meeting of Britain’s Parliament.The Pentagon on Tuesday rejected an offer by Poland to send its MiG-29 fighter planes to a U.S. air base in Germany to aid the Ukrainians, saying that for such jets to depart a U.S./NATO base “to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance.”Separately, the Pentagon said it was sending two Patriot anti-missile batteries to Poland to protect U.S., Polish and other allied troops there, reflecting an increasing fear in Warsaw and in Washington that Russian missiles fired in neighboring Ukraine could end up in Poland, whether on purpose or by accident.White House officials said the president signed an executive order on Tuesday that prohibits anyone in the United States from importing “Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal.” It also bans new U.S. investment directly in Russia’s energy sector or in foreign companies that are investing in energy production in Russia, officials said.In announcing his decision, Mr. Biden acknowledged that some European countries, including Germany and France, would most likely not follow suit because they rely much more heavily on energy from Russia.“A united response to Putin’s aggression has been my overriding focus to keep all of NATO and all of the E.U. and our allies totally united,” Mr. Biden said. “We’re moving forward with this ban understanding that many of our European allies and partners may not be in a position to join us.”Russia-Ukraine War: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 4Russian oil imports. 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    Economic Ties Among Nations Spur Peace. Or Do They?

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine strains the long-held idea that shared interests around business and commerce can deflect military conflict.Russia’s war in Ukraine is not only reshaping the strategic and political order in Europe, it is also upending long-held assumptions about the intricate connections that are a signature of the global economy.Millions of times a day, far-flung exchanges of money and goods crisscross land borders and oceans, creating enormous wealth, however unequally distributed. But those connections have also exposed economies to financial upheaval and crippling shortages when the flows are interrupted.The snarled supply lines and shortfalls caused by the pandemic created a wide awareness of these vulnerabilities. Now, the invasion has delivered a bracing new spur to governments in Europe and elsewhere to reassess how to balance the desire for efficiency and growth with the need for self-sufficiency and national security.And it is calling into question a tenet of liberal capitalism — that shared economic interests help prevent military conflicts.It is an idea that stretches back over the centuries and has been endorsed by romantic idealists and steely realists. The philosophers John Stuart Mill and Immanuel Kant wrote about it in treatises. The British politicians Richard Cobden and John Bright invoked it in the 19th century to repeal the protectionist Corn Laws, the tariffs and restrictions imposed on imported grains that shielded landowners from competition and stifled free trade.Later, Norman Angell was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for writing that world leaders were under “A Great Illusion” that armed conflict and conquest would bring greater wealth. During the Cold War, it was an element of the rationale for détente with the Soviet Union — to, as Henry Kissinger said, “create links that will provide incentive for moderation.”German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow last month. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, policies by Germany and other European countries have been partly shaped by the idea that economic ties with Russia could deflect conflict.Pool photo by Maxim ShemetovSince the disintegration of the Soviet Union three decades ago, the idea that economic ties can help prevent conflict has partly guided the policies toward Russia by Germany, Italy and several other European nations.Today, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil and wheat. The European Union was its biggest trading partner, receiving 40 percent of its natural gas, 25 percent of its oil and a hefty portion of its coal from Russia. Russia also supplies other countries with raw materials like palladium, titanium, neon and aluminum that are used in everything from semiconductors to car manufacturing.Just last summer, Russian, British, French and German gas companies completed a decade-long, $11 billion project to build a direct pipeline, Nord Stream 2, that was awaiting approval from a German regulator. But Germany halted certification of the pipeline after Russia recognized two separatist regions in Ukraine.From the start, part of Germany’s argument for the pipeline — the second to connect Russia and Germany — was that it would more closely align Russia’s interests with Europe’s. Germany also built its climate policy around Russian oil and gas, assuming it would provide energy as Germany developed more renewable sources and closed its nuclear power plants.Benefits ran both ways. Globalization rescued Russia from a financial meltdown and staggering inflation in 1998 — and ultimately smoothed the way for the rise to power of Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s president. Money earned from energy exports accounted for a quarter of Russia’s gross domestic product last year.The Nord Stream 2 plant in Germany. The pipeline had been seen as a way to align Russia’s interests with those of Germany. Now it has been shelved.Michael Sohn/Associated PressCritics of Nord Stream 2, particularly in the United States and Eastern Europe, warned that increasing reliance on Russian energy would give it too much leverage, a point that President Ronald Reagan made 40 years earlier to block a previous pipeline. Europeans were still under an illusion, the argument went, only this time it was that economic ties would prevent baldfaced aggression.Still, more recently, those economic ties contributed to skepticism that Russia would launch an all-out attack on Ukraine in defiance of its major trading partners.In the weeks leading up to the invasion, many European leaders demurred from joining what they viewed as the United States’ overhyped warnings. One by one, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi talked or met with Mr. Putin, hopeful that a diplomatic settlement would prevail.There are good reasons for the European Union to believe that economic ties would bind potential combatants more closely together, said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. The proof was the European Union itself. The organization’s roots go back to the creation after World War II of the European Coal and Steel Community, a pact among six nations meant to avert conflict by pooling control of these two essential commodities.“The idea was that if you knit together the French and German economies, they wouldn’t be able to go to war,” Mr. Haass said. The aim was to prevent World War III.Scholars have attempted to prove that the theory worked in the real world — studying tens of thousands of trade relations and military conflicts over several decades — and have come to different conclusions.The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global EconomyCard 1 of 6Rising concerns. More

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    Russian Oil Finds Few Buyers Even at Deep Discounts

    Some European buyers, shippers, banks and insurers have grown leery of doing business with the country in recent days.HOUSTON — The United States and the European Union have been unwilling to put sanctions on Russian energy exports in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. But some oil traders appear to have concluded that buying oil from Russia is just not worth the trouble.One of the three top oil producers in the world, after the United States and Saudi Arabia, Russia provides roughly 10 percent of the global supply. But in recent days traders and European refineries have greatly reduced their purchases of Russian oil. Some have stopped altogether.Buyers are pulling back because they or the shipping companies, banks and insurance companies they use are worried about running afoul of Western sanctions in place now or those that might come later, energy experts said. Others are worried that shipments could be hit by missiles, and some just don’t want to risk being seen as bankrolling the government of President Vladimir V. Putin.Russian exporters have been offering the country’s highest-quality oil at a discount of up to $20 a barrel in recent days but have found few buyers, analysts said. Buyers, in Europe in particular, have been switching to Middle Eastern oil, a decision that has helped drive the global oil price above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.“The enablers of oil exports — the banks, insurance companies, tanker companies and even multinational oil companies — have enacted what amounts to a de facto ban,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. Mr. Kloza said it could take weeks before it was clear how significantly Russia’s oil exports had fallen and whether the drop would be sustained, but “clearly the Russian contribution to world oil supply has been constricted.”On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said its members, which include the United States and more than a dozen European nations, had agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves. The announcement had little impact on global oil prices, probably because the amount was modest, amounting to roughly three days of consumption by the United States. The White House and Energy Department signaled that more oil could be released later by describing the I.E.A. agreement as an “initial release.”Much of Russia’s oil is shipped out of Black Sea ports for use in Europe. Some shipping companies carrying oil and commercial goods are afraid that their vessels will be fired on. Congestion in sea lanes is interrupting the shipping of not only oil but also food. On Friday, an unidentified missile hit a Moldovan-flagged tanker carrying oil and diesel.“Russia’s flagship Urals blend was one of the first to break through the $100-per-barrel mark this year,” said Louise Dickson, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm. “But the country’s incursion into Ukraine has now made it one of the most toxic barrels on the market.”As European refiners buy more oil from places like Saudi Arabia, Russian companies are increasingly trying to sell their crude to refineries in China and other Asian countries by offering them discounts.Most of Russia’s roughly five million barrels of daily oil exports go to Europe. About 700,000 barrels a day are consumed in the United States, roughly 4 percent of the U.S. market.Several Scandinavian refiners, including Neste Oyj of Finland and Preem of Sweden, have said they halted purchases of Russian oil.“Due to the current situation and uncertainty in the market, Neste has mostly replaced Russian crude oil with other crudes, such as North Sea oil,” said Theodore Rolfvondenbaumen, a Neste spokesman. As the company watches future sanctions and “potential countersanctions,” he said, it is preparing “for various options in procurement, production and logistics.”Energy experts say the international oil trade could be rejiggered in ways that are similar to what happened in 1956 when Britain, France and Israel attacked Egypt and closed the Suez Canal. For a time, oil tankers were rerouted around Africa. Similarly, over the next few months Russian oil once shipped to Europe could go to China.Russia’s Attack on Ukraine and the Global EconomyCard 1 of 6A rising concern. More