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    Under Argentina’s New President, Fuel Is Up 60%, and Diaper Prices Have Doubled

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    Javier Milei warned that things would get worse before they got better. Now Argentines are living it.Over the past two weeks, the owner of a hip wine bar in Buenos Aires saw the price of beef soar 73 percent, while the zucchini he puts in salads rose 140 percent. An Uber driver paid 60 percent more to fill her tank. And a father said he spent twice as much on diapers for his toddler than he did last month.In Argentina, a country synonymous with galloping inflation, people are used to paying more for just about everything. But under the country’s new president, life is quickly becoming even more painful.When Javier Milei was elected president on Nov. 19, the country was already suffering under the world’s third-highest rate of inflation, with prices up 160 percent from a year before.But since Mr. Milei took office on Dec. 10 and quickly devalued the Argentine currency, prices have soared at such a dizzying pace that many in this South American country of 46 million are running new calculations on how their businesses or households can survive the far deeper economic crunch the country is already enduring.“Since Milei won, we’ve been worried all the time,” said Fernando González Galli, 36, a high school philosophy teacher in Buenos Aires.Mr. Galli has been trying to cut back without making life worse for his two daughters, who are 6 years and 18 months old, including switching to a cheaper brand of diapers and racing to spend his Argentine pesos before their value disintegrates even further. “As soon as I get my paycheck, I go buy everything I can,” he said.Since Javier Milei took office on Dec. 10 and quickly devalued the Argentine currency, prices have risen at a dizzying pace.Emiliano Lasalvia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesNahuel Carbajo, 37, an owner of Naranjo Bar, a trendy Buenos Aires wine bar, said that like most Argentines, he had become accustomed to regular price increases, but this past week went far beyond what even he was used to.Since Mr. Milei won, the price for the premium steak that Mr. Carbajo serves soared 73 percent, to 14,580 pesos, or roughly $18, per kilogram, about 2.2 pounds; a five-kilogram box of zucchinis rose to 15,600 pesos from 6,500; and avocados cost 51 percent more than the beginning of this month.“There’s no way for salaries or people’s incomes to adapt at that speed,” Mr. Carbajo said.Mr. Milei’s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, said accelerating inflation was the inevitable consequence of finally fixing Argentina’s distorted economy.“We’ve been left with a multitude of problems and unresolved issues that we have to start addressing,” he said. “Inevitably, we will go through months of high inflation.”Mr. Milei has warned Argentines that his plans to shrink the government and remake the economy would hurt at first. “I prefer to tell you the uncomfortable truth rather than a comfortable lie,” he said in his inaugural address, adding this past week that he wanted to end the country’s “model of decline.”Argentina’s economy has been mired in crisis for years, with chronic inflation, rising poverty and a currency that has plunged in value. The economic turmoil paved the way to the presidency for Mr. Milei, a political outsider who had spent years as an economist and television pundit railing against what he called corrupt politicians who had destroyed the economy, often for personal gain.During the campaign, he vowed to take a chain saw to public spending and regulations, even wielding an actual chain saw at rallies.After Mr. Milei’s victory, price increases began accelerating in expectation of his new policies.Buying fruit and vegetables in Buenos Aires. Argentines suffer under the world’s third highest rate of inflation.Tomas Cuesta/ReutersThe previous leftist government had used complicated currency controls, consumer subsidies and other measures to inflate the peso’s official value and keep several key prices artificially low, including gas, transportation and electricity.Mr. Milei vowed to undo all that, and he has wasted little time.Two days after taking office, Mr. Milei began cutting government spending, including consumer subsidies. He also devalued the peso by 54 percent, putting the government’s exchange rate much closer to the market’s valuation of the peso.Economists said such measures were necessary to fix Argentina’s long-term financial problems. But they also brought short-term pain in the form of even faster inflation. Some analysts questioned the lack of adequate safety nets for the poorest Argentines.In November, prices rose 13 percent from October, according to government data. Analysts predict prices will increase another 25 percent to 30 percent this month. And from now until February, some economists are forecasting an 80 percent jump, according to Santiago Manoukian, the chief economist at Ecolatina, an economics consulting firm.The forecasts are partly caused by soaring gas prices, which increased 60 percent from Dec. 7 to Dec. 13, and have a trickle-down effect on the economy.The currency devaluation made imported products like coffee, electronic devices and gas immediately more expensive because they are priced in U.S. dollars. A monthly Netflix subscription in Argentina jumped 60 percent to 6,676 pesos, or $8.30, the day after the devaluation, for example. It also prompted some domestic producers, including farmers and cattle ranchers, to increase prices to align them with their own rising costs.With the chronic high inflation, labor unions often negotiate large raises to try to keep up, yet those wage increases are quickly eaten up by sharp price hikes. Informal workers, a list that includes nannies and street vendors, and who make up nearly half of the economy, also do not get such raises.Outside a clothing store this month in Buenos Aires. In November, prices rose 13 percent from October, and analysts predict that prices will increase another 25 percent to 30 percent this month.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesOn Wednesday, Mr. Milei launched his next big steps to remake the government and economy with an emergency decree that significantly reduces the state’s role in the economy and eliminates a raft of regulations.The measure prohibits the state from regulating the rental real estate market and setting limits on fees that banks and health insurers can charge customers; changes labor laws to make it easier to fire workers while also placing limits on strikes; and turns state companies into corporations so they can be privatized.Many legal analysts immediately questioned the decree’s constitutionality, saying that Mr. Milei was trying to subvert Congress.After the speech, people across Buenos Aires, like Jesusa Orfelia Peralta, 73, a retiree, took to the streets banging on pots to show their displeasure.She worried that price increases would make proper health care too expensive for her and her husband. Despite severe spinal problems, she said she did not hesitate to head out, using a walker, and vent her anger in public. “Where else would I be?” she said.A protest on Wednesday in Buenos Aires against Mr. Milei’s austerity measures.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Milei has sought to discourage protests by threatening to cancel welfare plans and fine anyone involved in demonstrations that block roads. Human rights groups have widely criticized such policies as restricting the right to peacefully protest.For now, most Argentines are trying to figure out how to make ends meet in what often feels like both a complicated course in economics and a frenzied sprint to buy before prices rise again.“I always say that we are at university, and every day we sit for a difficult exam, every five minutes,” Roberto Nicolás Ormeño, an owner of El Gauchito, a small empanada shop in downtown Buenos Aires.Mr. Ormeño said he had been scouring the market for his ingredients and changing suppliers almost every week, either because they increase prices too much or provide poorer quality products.He is trying to avoid passing along too much of his price increases to customers, though he is unsure how long he can sustain that. “I see my frequent customers buying one dozen instead of two” dozen empanadas, he said.Marisol del Valle Cardozo, who has a 3-year-old daughter, has been cutting back in a bid to make ends meet, turning to cheaper brands and going out less. “We don’t turn the air-conditioning on as much,” she said. “We decreased our plans on weekends from four times a month to just once.”Ms. Cardozo, who works for a police department outside Buenos Aires, said that she got a raise this year, but that it is already not enough. She also drives an Uber, but said that fare increases had not kept up with the soaring gas prices.Despite the challenges, Ms. Cardozo said she remained a Milei supporter and was hoping his policies work.“We were living under a fantasy,” she said, referring to gas prices before the recent hike. “If these adjustments are necessary to thrive in the end, they’re worth it.”Protesters in front of the National Congress on Thursday in Buenos Aires.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJack Nicas More

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    Southwest Airlines Reaches Deal With Pilots Union

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    The new contract would provide raises and better benefits, following similar deals at other big airlines.Southwest Airlines and its pilots union have reached a tentative deal on a new, five-year labor contract that would raise wages 50 percent over the next several years and increase retirement benefits.The union’s board unanimously approved the deal, which it said was worth $12 billion, on Wednesday, sending it to the more than 11,000 union members, who have until Jan. 22 to cast a vote.The deal would provide benefits that are similar to those secured by pilots unions at the three other large U.S. airlines in separate negotiations this year. Pilots have had the upper hand in labor talks because they are in high demand amid the strong recovery in air travel after a steep decline in the early part of the pandemic.Capt. Casey Murray, the president of the union, the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, said that the airline had started to lag behind its peers in attracting and keeping pilots in recent years. “What this contract was about was closing that gap so that we could recruit and retain competitively,” he said in an interview.Southwest welcomed the deal. In a statement, Adam Carlisle, vice president of labor relations for the company, said that the agreement would deliver “industry-leading” pay rates.Relations between Southwest and the union have been contentious at times. In 2021, the union sued the airline over changes made by management during the pandemic. Last year, the company and union entered federal mediation over contract talks. In May, Southwest’s pilots voted to approve a strike for the first time in the company’s history, according to the union, though federal law prohibits pilots from walking off the job without first pursuing mediation and other steps.Other pilots unions have achieved big gains. In March, pilots at Delta Air Lines approved a contract that would boost wages 34 percent over several years. Pilots at American Airlines this summer approved a contract that grants them a 46 percent raise, and pilots at United Airlines approved a 40 percent pay increase.All three contracts included improvements to vacation and retirement benefits and greater protections against last-minute reassignments. Southwest’s deal will include similar improvements. The new contracts at the big airlines have also increased pressure on smaller carriers to improve pay and benefits to keep pilots from leaving for larger employers.Pilots at big airlines easily earn six-figure salaries. The most senior pilots, who typically fly larger planes on longer routes, can earn several hundred thousand dollars a year. Labor and fuel account for about half of airlines’ operating expenses. In recent months, airline executives have warned that such costs could push down their profits.If approved, the new Southwest deal would extend through December 2028. The contracts at Delta, American and United are all in effect through at least 2026.There is no guarantee that Southwest’s pilots will approve the deal. The airline’s flight attendants rejected a deal this month, sending negotiators back to the table. Flight attendants at American and United are also negotiating new contracts. More

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    West Hollywood Minimum Wage, Highest in U.S., Irks Merchants

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    Josiah Citrin, the owner and chef of a Santa Monica restaurant with two Michelin stars, opened a new steakhouse a few months ago off the Sunset Strip. He is already concerned about whether the restaurant can survive.The reason, Mr. Citrin said, is singular: a West Hollywood city mandate that workers be paid at least $19.08 an hour, the highest minimum wage in the country.“It’s very challenging,” Mr. Citrin, 55, said of the new minimum wage, which took effect about two weeks before he opened his doors in July. “Really, it’s almost impossible to operate.”His sentiment is widely shared among business owners in West Hollywood, a city of 35,000 known for restaurants, boutiques and progressive politics. In recent weeks, many owners have written to lawmakers, pleading for a moratorium on further increases to the minimum wage; another is scheduled for July, based on inflation. And last month, several marched to a local government building carrying signs that read, “My WeHo” and “R.I.P. Restaurants in West Hollywood.”Their sense of duress arises partly from geography. The jaggedly shaped city is bordered by Beverly Hills to the west and Los Angeles to the north, south and east. Some streets begin in Los Angeles, slice through West Hollywood and end in Beverly Hills. You can be in three cities — barring, of course, traffic — in a matter of minutes.And that means West Hollywood’s small businesses have competitors down the street with lower costs.Beyond raising the minimum wage, the West Hollywood ordinance, which the City Council approved in 2021, requires that all full-time employees receive at least 96 hours a year of paid time off for sick leave, vacation or other personal necessities, as well as 80 hours that they can take off without pay.The State of California’s hourly minimum wage is $15.50, the third highest in the nation, trailing only the District of Columbia at $17 and Washington State at $15.74. But just as each state’s minimum wage can supersede the federal minimum of $7.25 an hour, more than two dozen cities across California, including West Hollywood and several in the Bay Area, have higher minimum wages than the state, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank.The number of workers at Charcoal Sunset restaurant in West Hollywood has fallen to 35 from around 50. The owner is wondering about his future in the city.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesIn San Francisco, it’s $18.07; in Los Angeles, $16.78.Chris Tilly, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies labor markets and public policies that shape the workplace, said research had shown that gradual and moderate increases to the minimum wage had no significant impact on employment levels.“The claim that minimum wage increases are job-killers is overblown,” Mr. Tilly said. But “there are possible downsides,” he added. “One is that economic theory tells us an overly large increase in the minimum is bound to deter businesses from hiring.”Over the past year, workers in several California industries have seen significant pay raises due, in many instances, to wins by organized labor. Health care workers at Kaiser Permanente facilities secured a contract that includes a $25-an-hour minimum wage in the state. Fast food workers across the state will soon make a minimum wage of $20 per hour, and hotel workers have received significant pay bumps across Southern California.Until recently, West Hollywood followed the state’s minimum wage increases, which have risen every year since 2017, often by a dollar at a time. But that changed with the new ordinance, which included a series of increases.Genevieve Morrill, president of the West Hollywood Chamber of Commerce, said that while her group wanted workers to earn a living wage in an increasingly expensive part of the country, she felt that the ordinance had done more to hurt workers, who have lost hours or, in some cases, their jobs after places have shuttered.Around the time the recent wage bump took effect, Ms. Morrill helped more than 50 local businesses, including Mr. Citrin’s restaurant, write a letter to the City Council outlining their concerns. They called for a moratorium on further minimum wage increases through 2025 or until the rate aligns with the Los Angeles rate. They also asked that the city roll back the mandated paid time-off policy.West Hollywood has promoted itself as “a leader in many critical social movements.”Mark Abramson for The New York TimesA journey of mere blocks can pass through Los Angeles, West Hollywood and Beverly Hills.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesWest Hollywood, which was incorporated in 1984, was the first city in the nation to have a City Council with a majority of members who were openly gay. It has promoted itself as “a leader in many critical social movements,” including, among other things, advocacy for H.I.V. causes, affordable housing and women’s rights, according to a post on the city’s website.When you walk along Santa Monica Boulevard, which cuts through the center of this city, a bustling energy fills the sidewalks. Several residents are catching up with phone calls while out walking their dogs, and others are grabbing a latte or strolling through an art gallery. People are doing calisthenics in a park. At night, the city’s vibrant bar and restaurant scene brings a buzz.Mayor Sepi Shyne, who was sworn in this year, said businesses had long been a part of the fabric of the community.“Our businesses are also the backbone of support for workers: Lifting workers with fair pay is part of securing economic justice and a brighter future for everyone,” said Ms. Shyne, who supports the minimum wage ordinance but said she was seriously listening to resistance from the business community.Last month, the City Council, of which Ms. Shyne is a member, approved about $2.8 million in waivers, credits and marketing dollars to help the business community. The City Council, she said, has also directed staff members to get feedback from workers about the effect of paid time off.A major supporter of the ordinance was UNITE HERE Local 11, which represents 30,000 workers at hotels and restaurants across Southern California.West Hollywood has a vibrant bar and restaurant scene that brings a buzz to the city.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesSunset Plaza is a center of various businesses on the Sunset Strip in West Hollywood.Mark Abramson for The New York TimesKurt Petersen, co-president of the local, said West Hollywood was setting a standard that should be replicated across California and the country. “It has raised living standards and given workers the security of paid time off,” he said.Near the intersection of Santa Monica and La Cienega Boulevards, Paul Leonard plans to open a location for his pet grooming business, Collar & Comb. He has operated at other locations, a few blocks away in Los Angeles, since 2019. The most popular service, Mr. Leonard said, is a full-spectrum specialty groom for dogs under 20 pounds at $166.In an interview, Mr. Leonard said he was not concerned about the minimum wage because he paid his groomers at least $23 an hour.“Everything is going up, and so should wages,” he said.Steve Lococo, who has been a part of the business community for decades, said small-business owners “have not at all been heard” over the last two years in West Hollywood. He has raised prices — an average haircut, previously $150, is now $195 — and his business, B2V Salon, which he co-owns with Alberto Borrelli, has cut back to five employees from nine. At the start of the new year, Mr. Lococo said, the salon will assess staffing again.“There need to be modifications to this ordinance,” he said. “Lately, it’s just like, you feel as if you have no say as a business owner in how things are done in the city.”Paul Leonard of Collar & Comb with his dog, Lincoln. “Everything is going up,” Mr. Leonard said, “and so should wages.”Mark Abramson for The New York TimesMeanwhile, Mr. Citrin, who has run restaurants in the Los Angeles area for more than 25 years, said the staff at his West Hollywood restaurant, Charcoal Sunset, which specializes in prime cuts of meat, had fallen to 35 from around 50.At high-end restaurants like his, Mr. Citrin noted, servers often make good money — sometimes more than $50 an hour when tips are included, he said. Most nights, his West Hollywood restaurant makes revenue comparable to what his Los Angeles and Santa Monica restaurants bring in, but his overhead costs are higher in West Hollywood. For now, he said, he is unsure of his future in the city.He often wonders if it’s easier to simply focus on his restaurants elsewhere in the area.“That’s something I need to answer in the coming months,” he said. More

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    U.S. Job Growth Holds Up as Economy Gradually Cools

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    Interest rate increases have taken the edge off labor demand, but unemployment dipped in November, and wages rose more than expected.The U.S. economy continued to pump out jobs in November, suggesting there is still juice left in a labor market that has been slowing almost imperceptibly since last year’s pandemic rebound.Employers added 199,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent, from 3.9 percent. The increase in employment includes tens of thousands of autoworkers and actors who returned to their jobs after strikes, and others in related businesses that had been stalled by the walkouts, meaning underlying job growth is slightly weaker.Even so, the report signals that the economy remains far from recession territory despite a year and a half of interest rate increases that have weighed on consumer spending and business investment. Reinforcing the picture of energetic labor demand, wages jumped 0.4 percent over the month, more than expected, and the workweek lengthened slightly.Wage growth held steady in NovemberYear-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation More

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    G.M.’s Contract Deal With U.A.W. Faces Surprisingly Stiff Opposition

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    Many longstanding General Motors workers have been voting against the tentative accord, which they feel insufficiently improves retirement benefits.A United Automobile Workers union vote on a tentative contract agreement with General Motors that provides record wage increases has run into unexpectedly strong resistance from veteran workers.Voting at most union locals has been completed and the final result, due as early as Thursday evening, will very likely be decided by a narrow margin. A majority of workers at several large plants in Michigan, Indiana and Tennessee rejected the contract, though union members at a large sport utility plant in Arlington, Texas, voted in favor of it.G.M., Ford Motor and Stellantis agreed to similar contracts with the union after U.A.W. members went on strike at select plants and warehouses. Workers walked off the job at the first three plants on Sept. 15 and stayed on strike for more than 40 days. It was the first time the union has struck all three automakers at the same time, though it did not shut down all of the factories of any company.The agreement appears to be headed for ratification at Ford and Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Jeep and Ram vehicles, by comfortable margins, according to running tallies the U.A.W. published online.At G.M., many veteran workers have opposed the contract because they want the company to contribute more money to retirement plans and the cost of health care for retirees.“I’ve heard from some traditional workers who said there wasn’t enough in there for them,” said David Green, director of the U.A.W. Region 2B, which includes Ohio, Indiana and a small part of Michigan. “The post-retirement health care is an issue for some people. For some people, it’s the pension contributions.”Mr. Green himself thinks the contract represents a big victory for union members. “This is the best contract I’ve seen since I started in 1989,” he said. “So I was happy with it.”General Motors declined to comment on the contract vote.The tentative contract raises the top wage by 25 percent, from $32 to more than $40 over four and a half years. The increase is more than the combined wage increases the union has won over the past 22 years, according to U.A.W. officials.Newer hires who are lower on the pay scale will see larger increases that take them to the new top wage. And workers who were recently hired will see their hourly pay double.The agreement also provides for cost-of-living adjustments that will nudge wages higher if inflation persists as well as enhanced company contributions to pensions and retirement plans, more paid time off and the ability to strike if any plant is closed during the term of the contract.The contract negotiations with G.M., Ford and Stellantis were led by the United Automobile Workers president, Shawn Fain, center, who was elected this year.Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesTo be ratified, the agreement must secure a simple majority. More than 46,000 U.A.W. workers work at G.M., although not all of them are likely to turn in ballots. More than 14,000 company employees took part in the targeted strikes.As of Wednesday afternoon, an online vote tally that the union maintains showed that just over 54 percent of the votes were in favor of the contract, but that tally did not include numbers from some big plants.If the tentative agreement is voted down, it would represent a big setback for the U.A.W. president, Shawn Fain, who was elected this year and promised to take a more aggressive approach in the contract talks in hopes of winning significant pay increases and reversing some of the concessions the union accepted in past contracts.He appeared to deliver that in what was widely regarded as a record deal. President Biden, who joined striking workers on the picket line in September at a G.M. site in Belleville, Mich., hailed Mr. Fain’s efforts. The president joined Mr. Fain last week at a plant in Belvidere, Ill., that Stellantis agreed to keep open after halting production this year.“I don’t think it diminishes Shawn Fain’s luster that much because of a close ratification vote,” said Arthur Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. “It just means expectations were high, and had he not delivered as much as he did, it wouldn’t have passed.”After the contracts with the three Detroit automakers are ratified, Mr. Fain hopes to try to organize workers at nonunion plants in the South owned by Toyota, Honda and other foreign automakers, and the nonunion plants that Tesla operates in California and Texas.Since the terms of the U.A.W. agreements were announced, some of those companies have increased wages of factory workers. Toyota has told workers that it will raise hourly rates by 9 percent in January. Honda and Hyundai will lift wages 11 percent and 14 percent next year. Hyundai plans to increase wages 25 percent by 2028.“Everybody at those companies should say, ‘Thank you, U.A.W.,’” Mr. Wheaton said. “Those increases wouldn’t have happened without the new U.A.W. contract.” More

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    Vermont May Be the Face of a Long-Term U.S. Labor Shortage

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    At Lake Champlain Chocolates, the owners take shifts stacking boxes in the warehouse. At Burlington Bagel Bakery, a sign in the window advertises wages starting at $25 an hour. Central Vermont Medical Center is training administrative employees to become nurses. Cabot Creamery is bringing workers from out of state to package its signature blocks of Cheddar cheese.The root of the staffing challenge is simple: Vermont’s population is rapidly aging. More than a fifth of Vermonters are 65 or older, and more than 35 percent are over 54, the age at which Americans typically begin to exit the work force. No state has a smaller share of its residents in their prime working years.Vermont offers an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed. The baby boom population is aging out of the work force, and subsequent generations aren’t large enough to fully replace it. Immigration slumped during the pandemic, and though it has since rebounded, it is unclear how long that will last, given a lack of broad political support for higher immigration. Birthrates are falling.“All of these things point in the direction of prolonged labor scarcity,” said David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has studied long-term work force trends.Eric Lampman, right, the president and co-owner of Lake Champlain Chocolates, has revamped its production schedule to reduce its reliance on seasonal help.Lockers at Lake Champlain Chocolates. While other states have helped buttress their work forces through immigration, Vermont’s foreign-born population has remained small.Vermont’s unemployment rate was 1.9 percent in September, among the lowest in the country, and the labor force is still thousands of people smaller than before the pandemic. Employers are fighting over scarce workers, offering wage increases, signing bonuses and child care subsidies, alongside enticements such as free ski passes. When those tactics fail, many are limiting operating hours and scaling back product offerings.A rural state — Burlington, with a population under 45,000, is the smallest “biggest city” in the country — Vermont has for decades seen young people leave for better opportunities. And while other states have helped buttress their work forces through immigration, Vermont’s foreign-born population has remained small.But demographics are at the root of the problem.“We knew where we were headed — we just maybe got there a little bit quicker than we were expecting,” said Michael Harrington, the state’s labor commissioner. “There just aren’t enough Vermonters to meet the needs of our state and our employers in the future.”Gray Mountain StateA disproportionate share of Vermonters are in or near their retirement years. But the overall U.S. population is also aging.

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    Percentage of 2022 population by age group
    Source: Census BureauBy The New York TimesThere were similar shortages across the country in 2021 and 2022, as demand — for both goods and workers — surged after pandemic lockdowns. The overall labor market has become more balanced as demand has cooled and Americans have returned to the work force. But economists and demographers say shortages will re-emerge as the population ages.“It seems to be happening slowly enough that we’re not seeing it as a crisis,” said Diana Elliott, vice president for U.S. programs at the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit research organization. “It’s happening in slow motion.”Long-run labor scarcity will look different from the acute shortages of the pandemic era. Businesses will find ways to adapt, either by paying workers more or by adapting their operations to require fewer of them. Those that can’t adapt will lose ground to those that can.“It’s just going to be a new equilibrium,” said Jacob Vigdor, an economist at the University of Washington, adding that businesses that built their operations on the availability of relatively cheap labor may struggle.“You may discover that that business model doesn’t work for you anymore,” he said. “There are going to be disruptions. There are going to be winners and losers.”Higher Wages, More OpportunityCentral Vermont Medical Center built a classroom and simulation lab for its training programs. A trainee practiced a procedure using a dummy.The winners are the workers. When workers are scarce, employers have an incentive to broaden their searches — considering people with less formal education, or those with disabilities — and to give existing employees opportunities for advancement.At Central Vermont Medical Center, as at rural hospitals across the country, the pandemic compounded an existing nursing shortage. An aging population means that demand for health care will only grow.So the medical center has teamed up with two local colleges on a program enabling hospital employees to train as nurses while working full time. The hospital built a classroom and simulation lab on site, and lent out its nurses to serve as faculty. Students spend 12 of their paid working hours each week studying — and if they stay on as nurses for three years after completing the program, their student debt is forgiven.The program has graduated 27 licensed practical nurses and eight registered nurses since 2021; some previously had administrative jobs. The hospital is expanding the training to roles like respiratory technicians and phlebotomists.Other businesses are finding their own ways to accommodate workers. Lake Champlain Chocolates, a high-end chocolate maker outside Burlington, has revamped its production schedule to reduce its reliance on seasonal help. It has also begun bringing former employees out of retirement, hiring them part time during the holiday season.The medical center has teamed up with two local colleges on a program enabling hospital employees to train as nurses while working full time.“We’ve adapted,” said Allyson Myers, the company’s marketing director. “Prepandemic we never would have said, oh, come and work in the fulfillment department one day a week or two days a week. We wouldn’t have offered that as an option.”Then there is the most straightforward way to attract workers: paying them more. Lake Champlain has raised starting wages for its factory and retail workers 20 to 35 percent over the past two years.Charles Goodhart, a British economist, said the aging of the population would tend to lead to lower inequality — albeit at the cost of higher prices.“Since the available supply of workers will go down, relative to demand, workers will demand and get higher wages,” Mr. Goodhart, who in 2020 published a book on the economic consequences of aging societies, wrote in an email.Robots and HousingCabot Creamery is in a rural area where cellphone coverage is spotty and many roads are unpaved. The county has only about 700 unemployed people, according to Vermont’s Labor Department.When Walmart reached out to Cabot Creamery about increasing distribution of its Greek yogurt, Jason Martin hesitated — he wasn’t sure he could find enough workers to meet the extra demand.Mr. Martin is senior vice president of operations for Agri-Mark, the agricultural cooperative that owns Cabot Creamery, the nationally distributed brand that employs close to 700 people in Vermont. When the company’s leadership talks about adding a product or expanding production, he said, labor is nearly always the first topic.“As I present products to our board of directors, in the back of my mind I always think, ‘I’m going to need to find the people,’” Mr. Martin said.The labor challenge is evident at Cabot Creamery’s packaging plant in the company’s namesake town. Blocks of cheese weighing close to 700 pounds are fed into machines that cut them, for one product, into cracker-size slices. Employees in gloves and hairnets then drop the slices into plastic pouches, which are sealed and packaged together. Many of the workers are in their 50s and 60s, and have been with Cabot for decades.Cabot is over an hour from Burlington, in a rural area where cellphone coverage is spotty and many roads are unpaved. The county has only about 700 unemployed people, according to the state’s Labor Department, and while the company has raised pay and offers generous benefits — a recent marketing campaign cites perks including a defined-benefit pension plan, tuition reimbursement and, of course, free cheese — hiring remains difficult.Cabot has raised pay and offers generous benefits such as pension plan, tuition reimbursement and, of course, free cheese, but hiring remains difficult.Adding to the challenge is Vermont’s housing shortage. Cabot has contracted with a local college to use unoccupied dormitories to house temporary workers brought in from other states and — on guest-worker visas — from other countries.It is also investing in automation — not just to require fewer workers but also to make jobs less taxing for its aging employee base. New equipment will package cheese slices automatically.To economists, investments like Cabot’s are good news — a sign that companies are finding ways to make the people they have more productive.But ultimately, many economists say, Vermont — and the country as a whole — will simply need more workers. Some could come from the existing population, through companies’ efforts to tap into new labor pools and through government efforts to address larger issues like the opioid crisis, which has sidelined hundreds of thousands of working-age Americans.Not all economists think aging demographics are likely to drive a national labor shortage.The ranks of people in their prime working years was stagnant for years before the pandemic, but labor was often plentiful, said Adam Ozimek, the chief economist at Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan public policy organization. Increased immigration, he added, would add to demand as well as supply.Still, many economists argue that immigrants will be an important part of the solution, especially in fields, like elder care, that are rapidly growing and hard to automate.“We need to start looking at immigrants as a strategic resource, incredibly valuable parts of the economy,” said Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist at Lightcast, a labor market data firm.Workers WantedKevin Chu, the executive director of the Vermont Futures Project, sees the worker shortage as an imminent, long-term threat to the state’s economy.Kevin Chu has spent the past several months traveling around Vermont speaking to local business groups, elected officials, nonprofit organizations and pretty much anyone else who would listen. His message: Vermont needs more people.Mr. Chu is the executive director of the Vermont Futures Project, a nonprofit organization, backed by the Vermont Chamber of Commerce, that sees the worker shortage as an imminent, long-term threat to the state’s economy.Mr. Chu grew up in Vermont after his parents immigrated from China in the mid-1980s, part of a wave of immigrants — many of them refugees — who came to the state during that period. He recalls attending Burlington High School at a time when it flew the flag of its students’ home countries, dozens in all.“I feel like I got a glimpse of what Vermont could be,” he said.Mr. Chu’s message has resonated with business leaders and state officials, but it has been a tougher sell with the population as a whole. A recent poll found that a plurality — but not a majority — of Vermonters supported increasing the population.The Futures Project has set a goal of increasing the population to 802,000 by 2035, from fewer than 650,000 today. That would also help bring down Vermont’s median age to 40, from 42.7.The state has a long way to go: Vermont added just 92 people from 2021 to 2022.The root of Vermont’s staffing challenge is simple: More than a quarter of its adults are 65 or older, and more than 40 percent are over 54. More

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    Las Vegas Hotel Strike Averted After Unions Strike Deals with Resorts

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    Two big unions reached contract agreements with the three largest resort operators ahead of a series of events crucial to the city’s economic rebound.Debra Jefferies, a cocktail waitress at the Horseshoe Las Vegas, spent much of the week wondering whether she would be walking a picket line, as she did in 1984 — the last time there was a major strike among hospitality workers in the city.“There was solidarity back then, just like there has been right now,” said Ms. Jefferies, 68. “Each generation has stepped up to demand better working conditions.”Nearly 35,000 union members, including Ms. Jefferies, had threatened to begin a strike on Friday against the city’s three big casino operators after months of negotiations had failed to yield a new five-year labor agreement.But last-minute maneuvering averted a walkout as the resort owners — Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International and Wynn Resorts — came to terms, one by one, on tentative contracts with the city’s two most powerful unions.The final agreement, with Wynn Resorts, came early on Friday, a few hours before the strike deadline. The deal, when ratified, would provide “outstanding benefits and overall compensation to our employees,” Wynn said in a statement. The culinary union said the contract featured the largest wage increase negotiated in its 88-year history.A strike loomed as a major disruption to a series of big events, starting with the Las Vegas Grand Prix, a Formula 1 auto race along The Strip that is expected to draw hundreds of thousands of visitors late next week.It was the latest crucible for Las Vegas and for Nevada, which has the highest unemployment rate in the nation — currently 5.4 percent — and has struggled to bounce back ever since the start of the pandemic shuttered The Strip for months.Along with the Formula 1 race, Las Vegas is the site of the National Finals Rodeo in December and the Super Bowl in February.Bill Hornbuckle, the chief executive of MGM, said in a Wednesday earnings call that his company had sold more than 10,000 tickets to the Grand Prix and expected to bring in $60 million in extra hotel revenue in the days ahead.Those stakes made a labor agreement all the more crucial.Ted Pappageorge, the head of Culinary Workers Union Local 226, said, “Hospitality workers will now be able to provide for their families and thrive in Las Vegas.”Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesThe dispute pitted Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and Bartenders Union Local 165 — affiliates of the labor confederation UNITE HERE — against Caesars, MGM and Wynn, which operate 18 hotels along the The Strip and are the state’s three biggest employers. Ted Pappageorge, the head of Local 226, likened the negotiations to landing “three large planes at once.”The unions pushed for contracts that would raise wages, bolster safety practices and ease concerns about the introduction of new technology that could affect jobs.“Hospitality workers will now be able to provide for their families and thrive in Las Vegas,” Mr. Pappageorge said, adding that the MGM Resorts contract would provide compensation increases “far above” those in the last contract, which amounted to a $4.57-an-hour increase in overall in wages, health care and pensions.Details of the tentative agreements have not been released, but the terms are expected to be similar across the three companies. Under the contract that expired Sept. 15, union members make $26 an hour on average.Stephen M. Miller, an economics professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said the sea change in the balance of power between management and labor that has occurred in the post-pandemic period is on clear display in Las Vegas.Mr. Miller said the government stimulus money during the pandemic gave laid-off workers, including many who worked in the culinary union in Las Vegas, the resources to reconsider their future employment path.“The labor market is involved in a large restructuring process, which has given labor more bargaining power,” Mr. Miller said. “The resurgence of strikes and threats of strikes is the observable outcome of that power shift.”“There is no better time than now to fight for what we deserve,” Yusett Salomon, a warehouse operator at Wynn Resorts, said of the negotiations on a new contract.Mikayla Whitmore for The New York TimesEven before the labor ferment in the last year in the auto industry, Hollywood and other realms, Nevada’s culinary workers were a particularly powerful force.It was culinary union members — who include housekeepers, cooks, doormen, laundry workers, bartenders and food servers — whose political clout was vital in winning legislative approval of Covid-19 safety precautions.And they often help sway elections as a powerful base for Democrats.In 2020, members knocked on more than 500,000 doors and helped Joseph R. Biden Jr. win the state by roughly two percentage points. Last year, during the 2022 midterms, they doubled their door-knocking efforts, helping Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto secure her re-election. (Despite their efforts, incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who faced fierce criticism over pandemic shutdowns, lost by a narrow margin.)That kind of support may be crucial to Mr. Biden again next year in a swing state where a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed him trailing his likely Republican opponent, former President Donald J. Trump, by 10 percentage points.Yusett Salomon was among the workers who knocked on doors for Democrats during the 2022 election. He has worked as a warehouse operator transporting pallets of food and plants at the Wynn for the past two years, earning $22 an hour.On Thursday, Mr. Salomon sat inside a cavernous hotel conference room observing negotiations. “There is no better time than now to fight for what we deserve,” he said.Lynnette Curtis More

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    ‘Our Family Can Have a Future’: Ford Workers on a New Union Contract

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    Before autoworkers went on strike in September, Dave and Bailey Hodge were struggling to juggle the demands of working at a Ford Motor plant in Michigan and raising their young family.Both were working 12-hour shifts, seven days a week, to earn enough to cover monthly bills, car payments and the mortgage on a home they had recently bought. They were also saving for the things they hoped life would eventually bring — vacations, college for their two children and retirement.They were holding their own financially, but their shifts left them little time away from the assembly line, where both worked from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m.“You just sleep all the time you’re not at work,” Ms. Hodge, 25, said. Some days, she’d see her 8-year-old son off to school in the morning. She’d fall asleep with her 14-month-old daughter lying between her and Dave.“I’d wake up in the afternoon, get dinner for the kids and go back to the plant,” she said. “Life revolved around work.”“Dave paid the bills with the strike money, and if I needed anything, I used the money I got from tips,” Ms. Hodge said.During the strike, Ms. Hodge worked at a local beauty spa.But the couple said they expected all that to change now. Last month, Ford and the United Automobile Workers, the union that Mr. and Ms. Hodge are members of, struck a tentative agreement containing some of the biggest gains that autoworkers had won in a new contract in decades.If the agreement is ratified, Mr. Hodge, who has been at the plant longer than Ms. Hodge, will make almost $39 an hour, up from $32. Ms. Hodge’s hourly wage will increase to more than $35 from $20. By the end of the four-and-a-half-year contract, both will be making more than $40 an hour. The agreement also provides for more time off.Mr. Hodge, 36, said he had teared up when he heard the details. “I was super happy,” he said. “It makes me feel like our family can have a future now.”About 145,000 workers at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, Jeep and Ram, are voting on separate but similar contracts the U.A.W. negotiated with the companies. Many labor and auto experts said a large majority of workers would most likely have the same reaction to the agreements that Mr. Hodge had and would vote in favor of the deals.The Hodges were required to walk the picket line at the plant one day a week. The United Automobile Workers provided $500 a week for each striking worker.Mr. Hodge’s first day back after the strike. “I was super happy,” he said of the new contract. “It makes me feel like our family can have a future now.”Just over 80 percent of the union members at the plant the Hodges work at, in Wayne, Mich., have already voted in favor of the deal. Voting at Ford plants is expected to end on Nov. 17.The tentative agreement also means the Hodges are going back to work after being on strike for 41 days. Their plant, which is a 30-minute drive from downtown Detroit, was one of the first three auto factories to go on strike in September. It makes the Ford Bronco sport utility vehicle and the Ranger pickup truck.On the evening of Sept. 14, Ms. Hodge was on a break when a union representative came by telling workers to leave. She and Mr. Hodge knew a strike was possible and had set aside enough money to cover their expenses for two to three months, but they were still surprised they were called on to strike first.The Hodges were required to walk the picket line at the plant one day a week, leaving them lots of time for the family activities they had been missing. The U.A.W. provided $500 a week for each striking worker. The $1,000 a week the Hodges collected helped, but Ms. Hodge also went to work at a beauty spa.The Hodges’ son arriving home from school.“At first, you were happy to have some time off and have dinner as a family, put the kids to bed, but then it keeps going on, and you’re like, ‘Whoa, this doesn’t seem to be ending,’” Ms. Hodge said.“Dave paid the bills with the strike money, and if I needed anything, I used the money I got from tips,” Ms. Hodge said.But as the strike wore on, the Hodges found they had to keep close track of their grocery shopping and stopped eating out.“At first, you were happy to have some time off and have dinner as a family, put the kids to bed, but then it keeps going on, and you’re like, ‘Whoa, this doesn’t seem to be ending,’” Ms. Hodge said. “As it goes along, it gets scary.”On Oct. 25, Ms. Hodge began getting texts from friends at the plant that the U.A.W. and Ford had reached a tentative agreement. That evening, she and Mr. Hodge watched an announcement by the union’s president, Shawn Fain, on Facebook.By the end of the four-and-a-half-year contract, both will be making more than $40 an hour.As the strike wore on, the Hodges found that they had to keep close track of their grocery shopping and stopped eating out.For Mr. Hodge, the news of the union’s gains — including a 25 percent general wage increase, cost-of-living adjustments and increased retirement contributions — was hard to fathom given the slower progress workers had made in recent years.He had started at Ford in 2007 as a temporary worker and over five years climbed to the top temporary worker wage of $27 an hour. In 2012, when he became a permanent employee, he had to start at the entry-level wage of $15 an hour.“It took me a good 11 years to get to where I am now,” he said. “So this feels like I’m getting back what I would’ve had.”The Hodges plan to continue working 12-hour, seven-day schedules for a short while to rebuild their savings account, and to take care of expenses they had put off, like fixing the dented bumper and cracked windshield in Ms. Hodge’s Ford Explorer.But eventually, they want to cut back to working Monday through Friday, and perhaps one weekend a month.“It will be great just doing some overtime, not overtime all the time,” Ms. Hodge said. “And we’ll start doing things with the kids. Maybe take them to a hotel that has a swimming pool. That would be nice.”A 25 percent general wage increase was hard to fathom given the slower progress workers had made in recent years.“It will be great just doing some overtime, not overtime all the time,” Ms. Hodge said. More