EU exports of goods and services will drop by 285 billion euros, or 9.2%, while imports of both will decline by 240 billion euros, or 8.8%, the European Commission said on Friday.
The forecast is based on a projection by the commission, the 27-nation EU’s executive arm in Brussels, that global trade will fall 9.7% in 2020. The World Trade Organization predicted last week that global merchandise commerce would decline between 13% and 32% this year.
The EU export drop will mainly hit “manufacturing sectors, most of which see export contractions above 10%,” the commission said. “In particular, transport equipment and electrical machinery turn out to be more strongly affected.”
It plans a forecast update in May and warned that, with the EU facing a pandemic-induced shrinking of gross domestic product this year, the projected declines in the bloc’s commerce with the rest of the world could be bigger.
“With predicted GDP losses becoming more significant, reductions in trade may also be more considerable,” the commission said.
