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Hispanic- and Latino-identifying consumers accounted for 32.5% of Constellation Brands’ sales in 2023, data from Numerator and Jefferies shows.
Continued loyalty from these shoppers is partly responsible for Modelo hanging onto its spot as the most-bought U.S. beer by dollar share.
“Hispanic consumers are the single most important consumer group for our beer business,” said Mallika Monteiro, executive vice president at Constellation Brands.

Packages of Modelo Especial beer are displayed for sale in a grocery store on June 14, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. 
Mario Tama | Getty Images

Modelo cans have become part of the fabric of events for Rio Riojas’ family and community in Lansing, Michigan.
The 35-year-old often finds himself opting for the brand at grocery stores or bars. The beer has become, in his words, “synonymous” with gatherings, ranging from small hangouts to birthday parties.

“It’s definitely the choice of the people,” said Riojas, a stand-up comedian. “When you’re at a quinceañera and you see everybody you know enjoying a couple beers at the table, it’s usually going to be a Modelo.” 
Riojas is part of a base of Hispanic consumers that has become a focal point for Constellation Brands’ beer business, which also includes products such as Corona and Pacífico. What the company describes as an authentic relationship with this cohort of shoppers has boosted demand — and is part of why Modelo has become the best-selling beer brand in the U.S.
Recent data illustrates how Constellation has pulled ahead in the broader market by homing in on Latinos.
Hispanic- and Latino-identifying customers accounted for 32.5% of Constellation Brands’ sales in 2023, according to data from consumer research firm Numerator and investment bank Jefferies. This is despite the group comprising just 19.5% of the American population that year, as government statistics show.

Continued loyalty from these shoppers is partly responsible for Modelo hanging onto its spot as the most-bought U.S. beer by dollar share, the company said. Modelo was first able to eclipse Bud Light last year as the Anheuser-Busch-owned brand faced backlash following its marketing campaign that featured a transgender influencer.

“Hispanic consumers are the single most important consumer group for our beer business,” said Mallika Monteiro, executive vice president and managing director for Constellation’s beer brands. “It has been the foundation of how we’ve been able to drive growth over the last 14 years.”

The ‘fighting spirit’

Constellation’s connection to these brands started with importing them to the U.S. from Mexico. The company officially acquired the U.S. beer business of Groupo Modelo, which included Modelo and Corona, from Anheuser-Busch in 2013.
These brands have a natural pull among Hispanics given their roots in America’s southern neighbor, said Alexandra Aguirre-Rodriguez, an associate professor at Florida International University’s business school. But Constellation’s marketing and social responsibility efforts have helped the New York-based company maintain this relationship over time, she said.
Constellation’s Monteiro said the emphasis on the Hispanic community has taken root in the company’s focus on building a diverse workforce. The company also touts a multiyear donor relationship with UnidosUS, which is billed as the largest civil rights organization focused on Hispanics in America.
With the rights to market in the U.S., Monteiro said Constellation has focused on an “authentic” reflection of these brands as Mexican imports. After several years of advertising in Spanish-language programming, she said the company in more recent years brought its Modelo marketing campaigns to English-speaking media.
One popular spot focused on the role of “abuelas,” or grandmothers, in caring for and feeding their families. An ad released this year highlighted the work of California women who build low-rider cars.

Modelo’s “fighting spirit” tagline offers positive representation in media for Hispanics specifically, said FIU’s Aguirre-Rodriguez, whose research centers on the intersection of identity and branding. It can also resonate more broadly with immigrants coming to America in search of a better life, or their descendants — regardless of their origin country, she said.
“Time and time again, you see that there’s that strong bond that consumers form emotionally with brands,” Aguirre-Rodriguez said. “The self is a very important part of consumers’ decision-making.”

‘A good mark of the culture’

This connection can help Constellation weather a tough economic backdrop that’s been defined by a “choosy” consumer, according to Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala.
Gajrawala said one might expect Constellation to face trouble as consumers face economic challenges such as inflation and high interest rates. But he said the company is in a better spot than others in a similar position.
That’s because the Hispanic base is likely to reduce spending elsewhere in order to keep picking up boxes of Modelo or Corona, given their loyalty, he said.
“The business is more resilient than it may appear,” he told clients in June.

Read more CNBC analysis on culture and the economy

Constellation hasn’t been completely immune from economic headwinds. CEO William Newlands said on the company’s earnings call earlier this month that an uptick in Hispanic unemployment can help explain softness seen during the second quarter.
Potential tariffs on imports are another overhang for the company heading into the presidential election. But Tom Fullerton, a professor at the University of Texas at El Paso focused on trade in the Americas, said consumers should continue to shell out under these circumstances, though they would likely see price increases as a result.
Constellation is one of multiple companies vying for the attention of Hispanics as their financial power becomes more apparent. A study released last month found that if U.S. Latinos were an independent country, they would have the fifth-largest gross domestic product and the second-fastest-growing economy.
Looking ahead, Constellation is expecting a rebound in Hispanic employment that should bode well for spending. On the business end, Monteiro said the company is expanding into flavors that particularly resonate with this group, such as the Modelo Agua Fresca line she said is inspired by drinks at Mexican street markets.
At a recent gathering of Riojas’ family, a decked-out tray included cans of Modelo adorned with finger foods and shrimp. Attendees could use those items to make a “Michelada,” a cocktail that typically mixes the Mexican beer with juice and toppings.

A Michelada tray.
Courtesy: Rio Riojas

For Riojas, a box of Modelo has also become a staple gift when going to events. He said the company’s commitment to uplifting Hispanic heritage has struck a chord within his community. 
“It was awesome to see us represented,” he said. “It’s definitely a good mark of the culture and a good representation of our ‘fighting spirit.'” More

The Social Security Administration on Oct. 10 announced a higher threshold for earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes.
For 2025, the “taxable maximum” will be $176,100, up about 4.4% from $168,600 in 2024.
The Social Security tax rate is 12.4%, with workers paying 6.2% and employers paying the other 6.2%. The government also collects 2.9% in Medicare taxes, which doesn’t have a cap on earnings.

Hispanolistic | E+ | Getty Images

How the Social Security tax calculation works

The Social Security payroll tax rate is 12.4%, with workers paying 6.2% through paycheck deductions. Employers pay the other 6.2%.

For 2025, workers will pay 6.2% on earnings up to $176,100, for a maximum of $10,918.20, according to the Social Security Administration. Once workers reach that max, they don’t pay into the program for the rest of the year.
The 2025 adjustment has a bigger impact on self-employed workers because “they’re paying both sides of it,” meaning they owe the full 12.4%, according to Lovison, who is also a certified public accountant.

The government also collects 2.9% in Medicare payroll taxes, with workers and employers each paying 1.45%. But there is no cap on taxable earnings for Medicare.
Self-employed workers are also responsible for both sides of the Medicare tax, for a combined 15.3% between Social Security and Medicare. However, they can deduct 50% of self-employment taxes on their individual return, even if they don’t itemize.

Concerns over Social Security solvency 

The latest Social Security adjustments come amid growing concerns about the program’s solvency. The trust funds used to pay benefits are expected to run out in 2035, the trustees’ report showed in May.
In the meantime, some advocates have pushed to increase the Social Security wage base to provide more funding.
The Social Security Administration’s 2024 trustees’ report details more than 150 options to close the funding gap, including ways to cut benefits and boost revenue.
“Clearly, the biggest financial gain comes from eliminating the taxable maximum,” Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wrote about the report in August.
However, future changes are unclear with control over Congress and the White House uncertain. More

Investors are facing delays to transfer certain assets purchased via TreasuryDirect, a platform run by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.  
However, investors can avoid liquidity issues by purchasing Treasurys via a brokerage account.

Peopleimages | Istock | Getty Images

As investors revisit bonds amid falling interest rates, some are encountering longer waits to transfer certain assets purchased via TreasuryDirect, a platform run by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.  
TreasuryDirect, which sells government-backed assets, experienced a surge in demand in recent years as investors flooded into Series I bonds that offered record-high yields amid elevated inflation.

Now, other assets, such as Treasurys, are taking longer to transfer from TreasuryDirect to brokerage accounts. In some cases, the wait could be up to 12 months, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
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But the Treasury said wait times are improving.
“We recognize that the retail program has processing delays due to resource and technology constraints,” a spokesperson from the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service told CNBC. 
When asked about wait times, the spokesperson said that it “depends more on complexity than capacity” and that processing times are “well under one year right now and declining daily.”

“The website’s processing timeframes are meant to give the longest potential times for the complex, difficult cases — these processing times are often much shorter and continue to decrease as we dedicate more resources,” they said. 
The agency aims to “modernize the retail program in the future” and is designing solutions “with the customer in mind,” the spokesperson said.  

The benefits of using a brokerage account

In addition to savings bonds such as I bonds, TreasuryDirect offers “marketable securities,” including Treasury bills, Treasury bonds, Treasury inflation-protected securities and floating rate notes.
Investors must hold these assets for 45 days before they can sell or transfer them, which makes the platform less attractive for investors needing flexibility, experts say.
“It’s not a good idea to buy anything from TreasuryDirect that you might need to sell,” said David Enna, founder of Tipswatch.com, a website that tracks Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, and I bond rates. 

It’s not a good idea to buy anything from TreasuryDirect that you might need to sell.

David Enna
Founder of Tipswatch.com

Transferring assets from TreasuryDirect to a brokerage account includes a multiple-step process, including a form with a signature from an “authorized certifying official at a financial institution,” according to the website.
Some advisors recommend buying Treasury assets in a brokerage account to bypass potential liquidity issues.
“The accessibility and the ease of these exchanges is so much better than the hoops you’ve got to jump through with the Treasury,” said certified financial planner George Gagliardi, founder of Coromandel Wealth Management in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Investors pay fees to buy Treasurys in a brokerage account. But with low-fee options, like exchange-traded funds, the cost is minimal for smaller investments, Gagliardi said.

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Women in their 30s and 40s make up about 46% of total employment, slightly lower than those in their early 20s, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve.
Despite making major strides in the workplace, as women approach their 40s, caretaking responsibilities continue to drag down labor force participation.

Women in their mid-30s to mid-40s make up about 46% of total employment, which means they are slightly less likely to work than men that age, according to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve. Their employment rate is also slightly lower than women in their early 20s.
“This smaller share reflects the fact that, within marriages, mothers are still more likely than fathers to specialize in child care,” the Fed noted.

Despite making major strides in the workplace, as women approach their 40s, they are still more likely to take time out of the labor force or reduce the number of hours worked because of caretaking responsibilities, according to the Pew Research Center.
This also results in fewer opportunities for advancement and lower pay — often referred to as the “motherhood penalty.”

Women are achieving increasing levels of education and working as much, if not more, than their male counterparts, at least until they reach an age when they often get married or have children — a dynamic that has proved remarkably stubborn.
“Women are more likely to exit the labor force either permanently or for a couple of years to take care of children,” Kelly Shue, a professor of finance at Yale School of Management, said at CNBC’s Women & Wealth event in September.
Today, 26% of mothers are stay-at-home parents, compared with just 7% of fathers, according to a separate Pew study from August.

Mothers working full time and year-round outside the home rarely recoup the lost wages, which add up to $20,000 a year, on average. Working moms are making just 71 cents for every dollar paid to fathers, according to an analysis of Census data by the National Women’s Law Center. 
And they still shoulder the brunt of the responsibilities at home, many studies also show.

Even in cases where women are now breadwinners, the division of labor at home has barely budged, according to another 2023 Pew Research Center survey. 
As women’s financial contributions increased, they continued to pick up a heavier load when it comes to household chores and caregiving responsibilities, the Pew report found.
“It is the case today, regardless of how much a woman is contributing economically, she is doing more tasks around the home,” said Richard Fry, a senior researcher at Pew.
In fact, in some cases, their responsibility for child care and domestic tasks is only increasing.
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Four in 10 women with partners say they are responsible for most or all of the household work, a number that has grown since 2016, according to the annual Women in the Workplace study from Lean In and McKinsey.
This year, half of women who live with a partner and have children at home bear the most responsibility for child care — up from 46% last year, Deloitte’s most recent Women at Work report also found.
At the same time, 37% of women said they feel like they have to prioritize their partner’s career over their own — another increase from 2023 — in part because their partner earns more but also due to societal or cultural expectations.

However, in at least some marriages or partnerships, couples are reevaluating ideas about work and family and striking a balance between the two.
Recently, it’s actually men who are choosing to scale back at work, particularly high earners with higher levels of education, according to a 2023 working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
“The pandemic may have motivated people to re-evaluate their life priorities and also gotten them accustomed to more flexible work arrangements (e.g., work from home), leading them to choose to work fewer hours, especially if they can afford it,” the researchers wrote.

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About 165 million Americans rely on employer-sponsored health insurance, and yet workers may still not get the coverage they want — particularly when it comes to drugs such as Wegovy and Ozempic.
Currently, less than half of employers cover the expensive weight-loss medications.
Even those that do cover them have guardrails in place that restrict access.

About 165 million Americans rely on employer-sponsored health insurance, and yet workers may still not get the coverage they want — particularly when it comes to drugs such as Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic.
About 1 in 3 employees are looking for more resources to combat obesity, according to a recent report by consulting firm Gallagher. Glucagon-like peptide-1 treatments such as Wegovy and Ozempic, which mimic hormones produced in the gut to suppress a person’s appetite, are considered game changers on this front.

These blockbuster weight-loss drugs have skyrocketed in popularity in the U.S. but are still not universally covered — even though “Americans have higher rates of obesity and diabetes and more behavioral health conditions today than ever before,” according to Trilliant Health’s “2024 Trends Shaping the Health Economy” report.
Cost is a key issue.
Although research shows that obesity drugs may have significant health benefits beyond shedding unwanted pounds, organizations representing U.S. insurers have said concerns remain about the high price involved in covering those medications, which are nearly $1,350 per month for a single patient. 
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The price tag for GLP-1 medications, along with the large number of workers who could potentially benefit from using them, are a big driver of higher health-care costs, several studies show. Already, prescription drug costs jumped 8.6% last year, due in part to a surge in the use of GLP-1 drugs, according to a recent report by Mercer.

“Is that significant? Yes,” said Sunit Patel, Mercer’s U.S. chief health actuary.
Patients on these medications need to complete months, if not years, of continuous treatment.
“It becomes a lifelong drug,” said Gary Kushner, chair and president of Kushner & Company, a benefits design and management company. “That’s a pretty expensive commitment.”

Cost is a key factor in coverage

Currently, fewer than half — 42% — of companies cover the expensive weight-loss drugs to some extent. Another 27% are considering adding coverage in the year ahead, according to the survey by Mercer.
Still, “not everyone who wants it can get it,” Patel said.
On the flip side, 3% of employers have recently removed coverage for these drugs and 10% of companies that currently cover them are considering removing them for 2025.  
To improve access to weight-loss drugs, many businesses would have to pay even more — and health-care costs are already reaching a post-pandemic high, with employers and employees set to shell out significantly more for coverage in 2025, according to WTW, a consulting firm formerly known as Willis Towers Watson. U.S. employers project their health-care costs will increase by 7.7% in 2025, compared with 6.9% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2023.
Among employers’ greatest concerns was how to cover increasingly sought-after weight loss drugs, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey also found.
“Employers face the challenge of integrating these potentially important treatments into their already costly benefit plans,” Gary Claxton, KFF’s vice president said in a press statement.

Packages of weight loss drugs Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro.
Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Access for weight-loss use is an issue

For now, some employers cover only GLP-1 drugs exclusively for the treatment of diabetes, while others cover certain GLP-1s for weight loss but only if they are approved by the Food and Drug Administration for that use — ruling out Ozempic, which is just FDA-approved for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes.
“Most employers cover Ozempic for diabetes, they don’t necessarily cover it as an anti-obesity medication,” said Seth Friedman, pharmacy and health plans practice leader at Gallagher.
That makes it even trickier for employees to navigate whether they can get access to the drug and if it will be covered by their insurance. “They see that it’s covered but they get rejected,” Friedman said.
A 2023 survey by the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans found that 76% of the companies polled provided GLP-1 drug coverage for diabetes, versus only 27% that provided coverage for weight loss — leaving many workers shut out.
“Obviously, there is demand for them, and it’s not for diabetes, it’s for weight loss,” said Kushner.

“Looking ahead to 2025, about half of large employers will cover the drugs for weight loss,” said Beth Umland, Mercer’s research director of health and benefits. However, “even when they do, there are guardrails around who can use it.”
Demand for these treatments is only expected to increase — but the added controls for coverage are also helping to keep costs in check.
Nearly all employers have some sort of “utilization management” restrictions in place, such as a prior authorization requirement, according to Gallagher’s Friedman.
For some companies, that may mean workers must try other weight-loss methods first or meet with a dietitian and enroll in a weight-loss management program. Others may require a threshold for body mass index, or BMI, of at least 30, depending on how the plan is set up, Friedman said.
This information is available during open enrollment, which typically runs through early December. 
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So-called “loss of use coverage” or “additional living expenses” coverage can help homeowners and renters cover living expenses like temporary housing after a natural disaster.
“I don’t know of any homeowners policy that doesn’t have it already there,” said Karl Susman, president and principal insurance agent of Susman Insurance Services, Inc. in Los Angeles. 

Mobile homes surrounded by flood water after Hurricane Milton made landfall, in St. Petersburg, Florida, U.S. October 10, 2024.
Octavio Jones | Reuters

If your home is temporarily uninhabitable after a natural disaster, a provision in your homeowners or renters insurance policy may help you with new lodging and other living expenses.
Insured wind and flood damage from Hurricane Helene is estimated to be up to $17.5 billion, according to CoreLogic, a real estate data site. Insured losses from Hurricane Milton could range from $30 billion to $60 billion, per Morningstar DBRS.

Homeowners and renters affected by a natural disaster can ask about so-called “loss of use” or “additional living expenses” coverage from their insurance providers, experts say.
The provision is meant to help cover reasonable living expenses if your home is not suitable to live in as a result of a covered peril such as a hurricane, fire or burst pipe.
“I don’t know of any homeowners policy that doesn’t have it already there,” said Karl Susman, president and principal insurance agent of Susman Insurance Services, Inc. in Los Angeles. 
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As you file a claim, it will be important to ask your insurance company about the loss of use coverage and how quickly can it kick in, said Shannon Martin, a licensed insurance agent and analyst at Bankrate.com.

“If you call your carrier, they might be able to expedite the loss of use claim filing for you and issue a check early so that you’re not stuck trying to figure out how to pay for separate housing,” she said.
Here’s what the coverage is and what to consider before you use it, according to experts.

How loss of use coverage works

Loss of use coverage is a provision that is typically included in your homeowners insurance policy. It’s usually about 20% of the dwelling coverage and is paid out in the event that the home becomes uninhabitable and a policyholder needs funds for living expenses while the home is repaired or rebuilt, experts say. Eligible expenses might include a hotel or rental home, food, pet boarding or storage fees, among others.
For example, if you’re ensuring a house for $100,000, and that’s what it costs to rebuild the house, that is considered the dwelling coverage, Susman said.
“Then the policy would automatically come with $20,000 in coverage for loss of use,” he said.

“That way you and your family can pay for your hotel and pay for food, because you might be separated from your home for an extended period of time,” Martin said.
Renters insurance typically has a similar provision, as would condominium policies, Susman said.
For renters and condo insurance, the primary coverage is not dwelling because you’re insuring personal property rather than the building, he said. You’ll typically get 20% of the personal property coverage for loss of use, he said.
Ask your insurer about any policy restrictions. There may be expense-specific dollar caps or time limits to claim loss of use coverage.

‘It’s not intended to be a long-term solution’

Loss of use coverage can help homeowners cover living expenses after a natural disaster. However, the money is meant to be a short-term solution, not a long-term fix, experts say.
“It’s generally not intended to be a long-term solution,” said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation, an organization focused on climate risk financial modeling in New York City. “It’s generally not enough money to carry people through an extended period of time.” 
That can be a problem because what it would cost to move out would be very different after a major disaster than during more typical times, Susman said, as there’s often less housing available and hotels may raise their prices amid demand.

While the coverage is meant to be temporary, repairs and broader financial recovery take a long time after major disasters, experts say.
“It takes a long time to recoup and recover,” said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.
Remember you can make a claim on your policy and get assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency at the same time, said Susman.
You might be able to use funds from the government to help you stay in a hotel for a month, then get a place closer to your home and use your loss of use coverage to pay for the difference, Martin said.  More

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox.
Here’s what CNBC TV’s producers were watching as the S&P 500 pulled back from its record, and what’s on the radar for the next session.

Older big tech

International Business Machines is up 3% in four days and up 4.6% in five days.
IBM is up 13.5% in a month.
The stock’s relative strength index, one of many metrics traders watch, hit 82 on Thursday. A reading above 70 often indicates “overbought.”
IBM hit a new high Thursday.
Cisco is up 1.5% in four days and up about 10% in a month.
Cisco is 1.9% from the 52-week high hit on Oct. 16, 2023.
Intel is up 2.8% in four days. The stock is up 4.3% in five days and up 22% in a month.
Intel remains 55% from the Dec. 27 high. 

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IBM shares in 2024

Humana

We’ll follow Humana on Friday, as it is down 4% after hours.
The action came after the government issued data on Medicare Advantage and Part D star ratings, and the results weren’t what the health insurer had hoped for.
About a year ago, Humana was more than $500 a share. On Thursday, it closed at $251.44.

The banks start reporting in the morning

JPMorgan Chase releases quarterly earnings results before the bell. The stock is up 2.4% in the past three months. JPMorgan is 5.6% from the August high.
Wells Fargo is down 3.3% in three months. The stock is up 7% in a month. It is 7.6% from the May high.
Bank of New York Mellon is up 22% in the past three months. The stock is up 5% in a week and hit a new high Thursday
CNBC TV’s Leslie Picker will cover all the big bank earnings in the morning.

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JPMorgan Chase shares in the past three months

BlackRock

This financial powerhouse also reports in the morning before the bell.
The stock up 17.7% in three months. BlackRock is up 8% in a month and hit a new high Thursday.
CEO Larry Fink will be on CNBC TV in the 9 a.m. hour, Eastern.

Fastenal

Industrial company Fastenal reports in the morning, too.
The stock is up 10% in three months.
It is 11.5% from the March high.
The stock is part of the S&P Industrials, which is up 11.4% in three months. The group hit a new high on Wednesday.

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Fastenal shares over the past three months

Tesla’s Robotaxi

We’ll get new information on the plan Thursday evening.
CNBC TV’s Phil LeBeau is watching.
The stock reaction will come on Friday.
Tesla is 12% from the July high. The stock is down 4.5% in four days. Year to date, shares are down nearly 4%.

The CNBC NRF Retail Monitor

CNBC TV’s Steve Liesman will run through the data Friday morning, showing us what’s going on inside the sector.
The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 24% in the last year.  It is 6.5% from the May high.
In the last three months, Group 1 Automotive is the leader. Shares are up about 26% in that period.
In second place, there’s eBay. Shares are up around 25% in three months.
Lithia Motors ranks third, up 24% over the past three months.
Advance Auto Parts, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are the worst RTX performers in the last three months. In that period, all three are down more than 30%.

The short list

The new numbers are out, detailing the most shorted NYSE and Nasdaq stocks. Thanks to CNBC data man Nick Wells.
Biotech stocks are high on the list, including Cassava Sciences. That name ranks fourth. Cassava is 41% from the August high. The stock is down 8% in four days, but it’s up more than 122% in three months.
Kohl’s and Guess are also high on the list. Kohl’s is 36.5% from the April high and down 4.2% in four days. Guess is down 43% from the April high. Shares are down 4% in four days. More

The Social Security Administration announced that a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment will take effect in 2025 for more than 72.5 million beneficiaries.
Some argue the measure for those increases doesn’t accurately reflect seniors’ costs.

Lordhenrivoton | E+ | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration on Thursday announced that the cost-of-living adjustment will be 2.5% in 2025.
When that increase goes into effect, it will be the lowest adjustment to benefits that beneficiaries have seen since 2021, when the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, was 1.3%.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment was put in place to help benefits keep pace with inflation.
The COLA is calculated based on a subset of the consumer price index known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The percentage increase in the CPI-W from the third quarter of last year to the third quarter of this year determines the cost-of-living adjustment.
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As government inflation data shows the pace of inflation has subsided, the size of the annual increase to benefits has come down.
“It’s better when the number is small, because it means that the inflation experienced by seniors is not as bad as it might have been,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center.

The 2025 adjustment is not the lowest the Social Security COLA has been. In 2016, 2011 and 2010, it was zero, and beneficiaries saw no increase at all in those years.

Still, for retirees, people with disabilities and other beneficiaries, the lower adjustment for 2025 comes as they continue to grapple with high costs.
“Before the inflation got so high, we just took lower costs for granted,” said Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst who is also a Social Security beneficiary. “It really has significantly changed how we have to manage since then.”
Having a lower cost-of-living adjustment when prices are still high — and when inflation was higher in the earlier part of this year — is going to be a “real sticker shock for some people,” said Shannon Benton, executive director at The Senior Citizens League.

Experts debate best COLA measurement

There is a debate among advocates and lawmakers as to whether a different measurement should be used for the cost-of-living adjustment. Such a change would have to be approved by Congress.
The current annual increase that’s automatic and compounds from year to year is very valuable, said Jenn Jones, vice president for government affairs at senior advocacy group AARP.
“That makes Social Security really unique and really special and important for older Americans,” Jones said.

AARP supports a COLA measurement that is accurate and reflective of what older Americans are spending, she said. Another experimental index — the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E — may better reflect seniors’ spending patterns, the nonpartisan group argues.
“Whenever Congress chooses to act in a bipartisan way to finally shore up Social Security’s financial future, we do believe that CPI-E should be a part of that discussion,” Jones said.
After the announcement of the COLA for 2025 on Thursday, other senior advocacy groups also spoke out in favor of switching to the CPI-E, including the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, and Social Security Works.

“The traditional formula (CPI-W) does not fully account for the impact of inflation on the goods and services seniors spend the most money on — especially health care and housing,” Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, said in a statement.
Not everyone agrees the CPI-E would be the best measure. Because one-third of Social Security beneficiaries are not elderly, it would not make sense to use an index focused on that population, Blahous said. Instead, he said, the chained CPI, which measures changes in consumer spending patterns, would be a better fit.
Washington lawmakers have proposed bills that would change the way Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustment is measured, prompting Social Security Works to declare “Social Security’s COLA is on the ballot” this November in a statement released Thursday. More