Hello and welcome to the working week.
Membership of an international club can be complicated, something that will be laid bare over the next seven days with meetings for some of the more significant of these, and 76th birthday celebrations for the biggest of them all, the UN.
EU leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday for the European Council summit. There will be much to discuss, from the EU’s role in stabilising gas prices to the importance of the transatlantic partnership and the bloc’s relationship with China — there are also likely to be pledges to share the Covid-19 vaccine with the developing world — but brace yourself for a row, with Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte raising concerns about Poland’s non-compliance with EU law.
This feels like a good moment to plug the FT’s Europe Express newsletter, which will be covering these issues in more detail. You can sign up to receive it in your inbox here. You can also email me about The Week Ahead: jonathan.moules@ft.com.
Brussels is home to not one but two international clubs. Nato defence ministers also meet in the Belgian capital at the end of the week. This gathering of military chiefs may give some indication of the resolve of the group in the wake of the exit from Afghanistan and the creation of the Australia-UK-US alliance, Aukus.
Europe does not have a monopoly on cross-border networking. New Zealand will also host a gathering this week, bringing together finance ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries to discuss their region’s macroeconomic and financial issues.
Companies
Earnings season is back in full swing. It will be a busy week for the FT’s Paris bureau. Many of the French corporate announcements will be trading updates, but it will not just be the numbers that will be of interest.
For the first time, Danone shareholders will hear chief executive Antoine de Saint-Affrique speak publicly. Several hope he will give some clues about his turnround plans — an uphill battle.
Carrefour reports on Wednesday, but what many will want to hear is what chief executive Alexandre Bompard has to say about the supermarket’s strategy after the collapse of takeover talks with Auchan, a smaller privately held French food retailer owned by the billionaire Mulliez family.
Recovery from the pandemic will be a theme elsewhere. Anglo-Dutch consumer goods business Unilever, which reports on Thursday, is battling with rising food, energy and packaging costs. The question is whether its brands have sufficient strength to pass some of these additional expenses on to consumers, safeguarding Unilever’s margins.
The most watched number for Netflix is subscribers. Love it or hate it, the success of Squid Game has kept people talking about the streamer’s content. But will it enable it to pull in new customers? Last quarter the tech media group beat forecasts by adding 1.5m new subscriptions, but this was much slower than the same time in 2020 when the pandemic was keeping us all at home.
Finally, or rather at last, Wm Morrison shareholders will vote on Tuesday on the takeover offer by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice. The company needs 75 per cent support for the CD&R deal to go through. Some shareholders — including the largest, Silchester — had voiced opposition to bids earlier in the takeover talks but sentiment has warmed since CD&R this month raised its offer to 287p a share.
Economic data
We start the week with Chinese GDP figures. Here are five things to watch for in the data.
The UK provides the inflation news this week with the publication of its consumer price index and producer price index data. The headline figure is forecast to dip — albeit temporarily — but the recent jump in short-term gilt yields indicates that the money markets sense a rate increase is close to quell further increases.
For international comparisons of economic recovery, there are a clutch of G7 nation purchasing managers’ index reports from Markit.
Friday’s Gfk consumer confidence and retail sales data will indicate whether rising energy prices and Covid uncertainty is cooling the UK’s recovery.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
China, Q3 GDP data and monthly retail sales figures
UK, Rightmove monthly house price figures
US, monthly industrial production and capacity utilisation figures
Results: Charles Schwab Q3, Philips Electronics Q3, Schroders Q3 update, State Street Q3
Tuesday
BHP Billiton Q1 production numbers
Hungary, interest rate decision
Wm Morrison shareholders vote on Clayton, Dubilier & Rice takeover offer
US, data for new residential construction
Results: Bank of New York Mellon Q3, Bellway FY, Canadian National Railway Company Q3, Danone Q3 sales, Deutsche Börse Q3, Halliburton Q3, Johnson & Johnson Q3, Kering Q3 sales, Netflix Q3, Omnicom Q3, Philip Morris Q3, Procter & Gamble Q3, Tele2 Q3, Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson Q3, Travelers Companies Q3
Wednesday
Canada, inflation data
China, policy rate
EU, Eurostat inflation data
Germany, monthly producer price index of industrial products
UK, Office for National Statistics data on inflation and public sector finances
US, Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on the health of the economy
Results: Akzo Nobel Q3, ASML Q3, Biogen Q3, Carrefour Q3 sales, Deliveroo Q3 trading update, IBM Q3, Kuehne & Nagel Q3, Nasdaq Q3, Nestlé Q3 sales, Northern Trust Q3, Roche Q3 sales, Segro Q3 trading update, Svenska Handelsbanken Q3, Verizon Communications Q3
Thursday
Anglo American Q3 production update
EU, European Commission flash consumer confidence figures
Rentokil Initial Q3 trading update
Turkey, one-week repo rate
UK, CBI quarterly industrial trends survey
UK, ONS retail sales figures
US, Philadelphia Fed business outlook
Results: ABB Q3, AT&T Q3, Barclays Q3, Blackstone Q3, Danaher Q3, DNB Bank Q3, Dow Q3, Hermès Q3 sales, Intel Q3, L’Oréal Q3, Marsh & McLennan Q3, Mattel Q3, Nordea Bank Q3, Pernod Ricard Q1 sales, Reliance Industries Q2, SAP Q3, Snap Q3, Southwest Airlines Q3, Swedbank Q3, TeliaSonera Q3, Union Pacific Q3, Unilever Q3, Vivendi Q3 sales, Volvo Q3, Whirlpool Q3
Friday
Canada, monthly retail sales figures
Eurozone, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: Markit’s flash composite (manufacturing and services) purchasing managers’ index data
UK, monthly retail sales and GfK consumer confidence data
Results: American Express Q3, Hitachi Q2, Hyundai Mobis Q3, Rémy Cointreau H1, Renault Q3, Royal Caribbean Group Q3, Saab Q3, Schlumberger Q3, Sika Q3
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Greece, torch-lighting ceremony at Olympia for the 2022 Beijing winter Olympics
UK, vaccine passport scheme enforcement begins in Scotland
Tuesday
South Korea, Seoul International Aerospace and Defence Exhibition opens
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at a joint research conference with the Banca d’Italia on the macro-financial impacts of the net zero transition
Wednesday
France, the fossilised remains of ‘Big John’, the largest triceratops dinosaur uncovered, will be sold at a Paris auction house
Libya, 10th anniversary of the death of deposed leader Muammer Gaddafi
Thursday
Belgium, EU leaders gather for the European Council summit in Brussels
France, release of “Asterix et le Griffon” the first of the comic book series to be published since the death of Asterix co-creator and illustrator Albert Uderzo
UK, Queen attends a service in Armagh to mark Northern Ireland’s centenary
Friday
Belgium, NATO defence ministers meet in Brussels
New Zealand, finance ministers of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries meet to discuss regional macroeconomic and financial issues
Norway, opening of Munch, a museum in Oslo dedicated to the Norwegian modernist painter Edvard Munch
Russia, Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett due to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin during a visit to the country
Saturday
US, auction of 11 Picasso paintings and works in Las Vegas is expected to raise $100m, making it the most valuable such sale dedicated to the Spanish artist
Sunday
United Nations Day marks the 76th anniversary of the UN’s founding
Source: Economy - ft.com
