Hello and welcome to the working week,
As TS Eliot wrote in his poem “The Waste Land”, “April is the cruellest month”. I say this not just because this week is the start of the UK tax year, but also because the centenary of what was one of the 20th century’s most important poems is being celebrated in London’s financial centre from this Thursday with a festival across 22 City churches.
It is hard to be optimistic about world events at the moment. What will happen in Ukraine? That’s impossible to predict. But there will be a lot more meetings, firstly between foreign ministers of the member states of Nato, which by coincidence commemorates its 73rd birthday this Monday. There will also be a gathering of EU finance ministers for the Ecofin conference, whose agenda includes trying to assess the economic impact of the conflict.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky continues his (virtual) tour of western parliaments to rally support — this week addressing the elected chambers of Dublin and Athens. Another coincidental anniversary: this Thursday is the seventh anniversary of the declaration of the Donetsk People’s Republic as a breakaway region from Ukraine.
Are there any reasons to be cheerful? Well, there will be some firsts for space travel this week. On Monday, Nasa will hold a press conference to discuss the final test stages — called a “wet dress rehearsal” — for its Artemis 1 rocket. The Artemis programme aims to return astronauts to the Moon and establish a long-term lunar colony as a precursor to human exploration of Mars.
Then on Wednesday, Axiom (or Ax-1), the first all-private astronaut rocket mission to the International Space Station, is due to launch from Nasa’s Kennedy space centre in Florida.
As the week draws to a close, democracy in western Europe will be in the spotlight with the first round of voting in the French presidential election on Sunday.
Not so long ago it could be said that none of the 11 challengers looked close to unseating incumbent Emmanuel Macron, but he now warns that he could lose the election to the far right. The fear is that Macron’s overwhelming success in the polls will foster voter apathy and a festering disillusionment with centrist politicians, as this excellent Big Read explains.
You will be able to get the latest updates on the French polls by clicking here. You can also cast your vote on The Week Ahead by sending me an email at jonathan.moules@ft.com — I remain open to suggestions about what to include and leave out. Thank you for your comments.
Economic data
The thoughts of central bankers on the inflation conundrum will become a little clearer this week with the publication of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting.
IHS/Markit will provide some international comparisons on productivity, services and manufacturing with the publication of its purchasing managers’ index data for Europe, Asia and the US.
Companies
We are between earnings seasons, so the main corporate diary events this week are annual general meetings, notably Nokia — which recently reinstated its dividend — on Tuesday, UBS on Wednesday and Rio Tinto on Friday.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Canada, Bank of Canada publishes its Business Outlook Survey
EU, industrial producer prices
Germany, February trade balance figures
UK, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Stop Scams Conference, and Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor, gives a talk at the European Economics & Financial Centre
US, February factory orders data
Tuesday
Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly monetary policy meeting
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: IHS/Markit services and composite (manufacturing and services) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
Nokia AGM
South Korea, March inflation figures
Wednesday
Asia, China, EU, France, Germany, Global, UK: IHS/Markit productivity, services and construction PMI figures
EU, European Central Bank (ECB) publishes quarterly financial statements
Germany, February factory order and consumer goods statistics
Russia, consumer price index (CPI) figures
Sweden, February gross domestic product data
TeliaSonera AGM
UBS AGM
UK, British Retail Consortium NielsenIQ March Shop Price Index
US, Federal Open Market Committee publishes minutes of its March meeting
Thursday
EU, the ECB’s monetary policy accounts plus eurozone February retail sales data
Germany, February industrial production figures
UK, Office for National Statistics quarterly productivity figures, plus Halifax March house price index. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill gives the opening remarks at the bank’s 8th International Conference on Sovereign Bond Markets
Friday
Canada, March unemployment data
CMC Markets pre-close full-year update
France, industrial production figures
Italy, February retail sales data
Japan, February trade balance figures
Norway, February GDP data
Rio Tinto AGM
Saturday
China, March CPI and producer price index data
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
73rd anniversary of the foundation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), created with the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington
US, Nasa holds a media teleconference to discuss the final major test of its Mega Moon rocket and spacecraft Artemis 1
Tuesday
EU, Ecofin Council of economic and finance ministers meets in Luxembourg. The agenda includes agreeing a general approach on a global minimum tax level of not less than 15 per cent for large multinational corporations, plus there will be a discussion on the economic and financial aspects of the war in Ukraine
Japan, ban on the export of high-end cars and other luxury goods to Russia comes into force
Wednesday
Belgium, Nato foreign ministers will gather in Brussels for a meeting of the North Atlantic Council, chaired by Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg.
They will be joined on Thursday by the foreign ministers of Australia, Finland, Georgia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Sweden and Ukraine, plus the EU high representative for foreign affairs
Ireland, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky will give a virtual address to a joint sitting of both houses of parliament in Dublin
UK, Start of the 2022/23 tax year. The threshold at which people begin to pay income tax was set by chancellor Rishi Sunak at £12,570, and £50,270 in April 2021, and will be frozen for five years
UK, Divorce, Dissolution and Separation Act 2020 comes into force, allowing married couples to divorce without assigning blame
US, Axiom (or Ax-1), the first all-private astronaut mission to the International Space Station, is due to launch from Nasa’s Kennedy space centre in Florida
Thursday
World Health Day when the World Health Organization publishes its annual World Health Report
Ukraine, seventh anniversary of the declaration of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Greece, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky gives an online address to the parliament in Athens
UK, the England and Wales County Championship cricket season begins
US Masters golf tournament begins at the Augusta National Golf Club, Georgia
Friday
UK, ballot closes among members of the University and College Union (UCU) on settlement for pensions, pay and conditions to avoid further strike action during the end-of-year exam season
Saturday
Georgia, Day of National Unity commemorating the Tbilisi tragedy in 1989, when Soviet army attempts to disperse demonstrators resulted in at least 20 deaths
UK, 174th Grand National takes place at Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool
Sunday
France, first round of the country’s presidential election
Israel, Palm Sunday is marked at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem
South Caucasus, presidential election in South Ossetia
Finally, this week sees the launch of Working It, a new newsletter from work & careers editor Isabel Berwick on the big ideas shaping today’s workplaces, from the future of hybrid work to the effects of the Great Reshuffle. Sign up here.
Source: Economy - ft.com
