Hello and welcome to the working week.
Or should that be the week of the workers? The 20th national congress of the Chinese Communist party is under way in Beijing and all eyes are on President Xi Jinping ahead of the expected vote to hand him an unprecedented third term in office. The FT has spoken with more than two dozen business executives, farmers, government officials and Chinese academics — although, understandably, none would go on the record — to give a broad picture of the country as it enters this new era.
Back in the UK, representatives of British workers will gather in Brighton for the annual TUC Congress, which was rescheduled due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II last month. Given the state of the economy and industrial unrest, there will be much to discuss. Pensions, the cost of living crisis and defending the right to strike are all on the agenda.
Economic troubles will be high on the agenda for the European Council meeting between EU heads of state, which begins on Thursday in Brussels.
The fallout from the January 6 2021 attack on Capitol Hill continues to grab headlines in the US. On Friday, Donald Trump’s former political adviser Steve Bannon is due to be sentenced for contempt of Congress after failing to comply with a subpoena issued by the committee investigating the attack. He faces a fine of between $100 and $100,000 as well as a minimum of 30 days and a maximum of one year in jail for each count.
Finally, among the anniversaries this week is a significant one for a British institution as the BBC turns 100. Many people will have a view on this. Perhaps it is time to review former FT editor Lionel Barber’s take on a century of “Auntie Beeb”.
What events are concerning you in the coming seven days? You can contact me directly by sending a message to jonathan.moules@ft.com. Thank you.
Economic data
It’s going to be another difficult week for economic data, but then these are the times we are in.
UK inflation figures for September are likely to see another rise in the headline rate back in double digits, while the GfK confidence reading and retail sales update will probably underline how unlikely a consumer-led recovery is at the moment. Plus, on Friday, S&P will review the UK’s credit rating of AA (currently with a negative outlook) as will Moody’s. Another Friday that is unlikely to be quiet for the British press.
The Federal Reserve will on Wednesday publish its latest Beige Book, providing commentary on current US economic conditions, and there will be an update on the increasingly fragile American housing market.
China’s monthly activity indicators will most likely illustrate the ongoing impact of Covid-19 restrictions.
Companies
We’re deep into the earnings season, starting the week with the rest of the big Wall Street banks reporting third-quarter numbers, followed by a mixture of consumer goods, retail, media, airlines and tech.
Higher costs are hitting online retailers. Naked Wines, which reports interims on Monday, shocked the markets last month when it reported a change in strategy towards profitability. Asos will present full-year earnings on Friday, the first under the tenure of chief executive José Antonio Ramos Calamonte, but has already warned that these will be at the bottom of expectations due to cutbacks in consumer spending.
Investors in UK residential housebuilder Bellway will be looking at the future given concerns about the impact of rising borrowing costs on the British housing market. The order book stood at £2.1bn in August, but more recent trading patterns and levels of sales interest will be key, alongside any signs of stress in the mortgage market.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
New Zealand, Q3 consumer price index inflation rate data
UK, a government consultation on a new legal framework for defined benefit pension schemes, including a set of rules for funding and investment strategies, closes today. The government wants schemes to reduce investment risk.
Results: Bank of America Q3, Bank of New York Mellon Q3, Charles Schwab Q3, Naked Wines H1, Rio Tinto Q3 operations update
Tuesday
China, monthly GDP, retail sales and industrial production figures
Germany, ZEW economic sentiment survey
US, September industrial production figures plus NAHB housing market index
Results: Bellway FY, BP Marsh & Partners H1, Goldman Sachs Q3, Hasbro Q3, Johnson & Johnson Q3, Lockheed Martin Q3, Moneysupermarket Q3 trading statement, Netflix Q3, Omnicom Q3, Publicis Groupe Q3 sales, Roche Q3, Signature Bank Q3, State Street Q3
Wednesday
Canada, September CPI figures
EU, September HICP inflation rate data
UK, September CPI, producer price index (PPI) and retail price index (RPI) inflation rate data
US, Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book summary of economic conditions
Results: América Móvil Q3, ASML Q3, Asos FY, Deutsche Boerse Q3, Hargreaves Lansdown Q1 trading update, IBM Q3, Just Eat Takeaway Q3 trading update, Liontrust H1 trading update, Man Group Q3 trading update, Nestlé Q3, Procter & Gamble Q3, Rathbones Group Q3, Tesla Q3, Travelers Q3, United Airlines Q3
Thursday
Canada, monthly retail sales figures
France, October business confidence survey
Germany, September PPI inflation rate data
Japan, September trade balance figures
US, existing home sales and jobless claims data
Results: ABB Q3, AJ Bell FY trading update, Akzo Nobel Q3, American Airlines Q3, AT&T Q3, Bunzl Q3 trading update, Centamin Q3, Dunelm Q1 trading update, GB Group H1 trading update, Jupiter Fund Management Q3 trading update, Marsh & McLennan Q3, National Express trading update, Nokia Q3, Pernod Ricard Q1, Philip Morris Q3, Schroders Q3 trading update, Travis Perkins Q3 trading update, Union Pacific Q3, Vivendi Q3
Friday
EU, consumer confidence figures
Hong Kong, September CPI inflation rate data
Japan, September CPI inflation rate data
UK, GfK consumer confidence survey, September public sector net borrowing and September retail sales figures. Citi/YouGov public inflation expectations survey. Plus, S&P to review the UK’s credit rating AA (negative outlook); Moody’s to review the UK’s credit rating.
Results: American Express Q3, Deliveroo Q3 trading update, IHG Q3 trading update, London Stock Exchange Q3 revenues update, Schlumberger Q3, Sika Q3, Verizon Communications Q3, Whirlpool Q3, Wickes Q3 trading update
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
France, President Emmanuel Macron opens the Paris Motor Show
Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz greets Spain’s King Felipe and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier hosts a state dinner for the royals during their official visit
Luxembourg, meeting of EU foreign ministers to discuss the Ukraine war, EU relations with China and the upcoming COP27 UN Climate Change Conference
Spain, trial due to begin of the football clubs Barcelona and Santos and footballer Neymar on fraud and corruption charges over the transfer of the Brazil forward to Barça in 2013
UK, winner of the Booker Prize, the leading prize for English language fiction, will be announced at a ceremony in London
Tuesday
Azerbaijan, Restoration of Independence Day national holiday
Qatar, official opening of the Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, a key part of the country’s ambition to host the first net zero football World Cup later this year
UK, the rescheduled TUC Congress gathering for trades union members begins in Brighton. Pensions, the cost of living crisis and defending the right to strike are among the items on the agenda.
UK, centenary of the founding of the British Broadcasting Corporation
Wednesday
Thailand, finance ministers from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) countries begin a three-day meeting in Bangkok
Thursday
Belgium, European Council meeting between EU heads of state begins in Brussels with the Ukraine war, the energy crisis and the economy on the agenda.
Friday
US, Steve Bannon, a key associate of former president Donald Trump, to be sentenced for contempt of Congress for defying subpoena from the committee investigating last year’s attack on the US Capitol
Saturday
New Zealand, draw to decide the group stage matches for the ninth Women’s World Cup, which will begin in July 2023 at venues in Australia and New Zealand
Sunday
Slovenia, presidential election
Source: Economy - ft.com
