Hello and welcome to the working week.
Now would seem a good time for central bankers to get together and brainstorm some ways of getting their economies out of a global inflationary crisis. So thank goodness for the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking, a gathering amid the palaces in the pretty Portuguese Riviera town of Sintra to discuss the challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world: a title that organisers admit was only recently agreed upon given the, er, rapidly changing world that the eurozone economies now face. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, World Trade Organization head Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey are among the top drawer list of speakers.
Geopolitical summits are again a bit of a theme this week. Nato will gather in Madrid on Tuesday for three days of discussion, including its expansion in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Among the topics for deliberation are maintaining support for Ukraine, reinforcing partnerships and maintaining an open door, and strengthening transatlantic unity.
This also happens to be the week for Ukraine’s Constitution Day, a public holiday for the country marking the foundation of an independent state in 1996.
Talking of separation, Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected on Tuesday to set out in detail how she plans to hold a second independence referendum. Read Robert Shrimsley’s excellent opinion piece to appreciate the reasons why Sturgeon is choosing to do this now. The future of Britain is the subject of a conference taking place in London, jointly organised by the Tony Blair Institute and the Britain Project, a cross between a campaign group and a think-tank.
Of course, reorganising countries is a controversial business as will no doubt be debated on Friday, the 25th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong by the UK to China. The story of journalist-turned-political-activist Claudia Mo, powerfully told in this weekend’s FT Magazine, recalls the battles fought and ultimately lost by those seeking to maintain autonomy for the city region in the last quarter century — although that will not stop protesters from taking to the streets on Friday.
This week will also see the next instalment of the UK’s summer of discontent with barristers walking out on Monday in ongoing protests over cuts to legal funding — although the Ministry of Justice questions this, saying that criminal legal aid is increasing by £135mn a year. Postal workers may follow the lawyers on to picket lines as the Communication Workers Union this week sends out ballots for industrial action to more than 115,000 of its members.
In need of a little lighter entertainment? Well, it’s a good week for major sporting tournaments with the start of both Wimbledon fortnight and the Tour de France, which this year begins in Copenhagen. The FT has also published its list of summer reading recommendations.
Thanks again for your messages about this newsletter. If you have yet to comment, or wish to say more about what does and does not warrant a mention, then email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com.
Economic data
Consumer confidence reports, inflation and gross domestic product updates this week will give some indication of the effectiveness of the various monetary policy tightening measures in play, and will no doubt give the central bankers in Sintra food for thought.
Sweden and Hungary’s central bankers are making interest rate decisions this week.
Companies
A quieter week for diaried corporate announcements. The most significant earnings announcements are all from the US. Investors in Nike, the global sports brand, might be more interested in the senior leadership team than the numbers. Nike’s head of diversity Felicia Mayo will leave the company at the end of next month after just two years in the role.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
The annual European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking begins in Sintra, Portugal
US, May durable goods orders data
Results: Nike Q4
Tuesday
France, consumer confidence figures
Germany, consumer confidence figures
Hungary, interest rate decision
UK, Office for National Statistics publishes the first results from the 2021 Census in England and Wales
US, monthly consumer confidence and house price index figures
Wednesday
Germany, preliminary consumer price index (CPI) figures
Japan, May retail figures
Spain, flash inflation and retail sales data
Sweden, Riksbank’s monetary policy meeting
UK, British Retail Consortium shop price index
UK, EU chief Brexit negotiator Maroš Šefčovič will speak at Bloomberg’s London HQ on the EU-UK partnership
US, Q1 GDP figures
Results: General Mills Q4
Thursday
Canada, April GDP data
EU, May unemployment figures
France, May producer price index (PPI) data and June CPI data
Germany, June unemployment figures, May import prices plus May retail trade data. Also, ECB president Christine Lagarde’s speech at the first meeting of the Simone Veil Pact, organised by Renew Europe.
Italy, May unemployment figures plus May PPI data
Japan, May industrial production data
UK, final Q1 GDP figures and consumer trends report plus Nationwide’s June house price data
Results: Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3
Friday
China, France, Italy, UK, US: Caixin and S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
The ECB will end its long-running bond-buying scheme, part of stimulus measures introduced a decade ago, to help battle stubbornly high inflation
EU, flash June inflation figures
Italy, May CPI data
Japan, monthly unemployment rate
UK, consumer credit figures
US, construction spending statistics
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
The UN Ocean Conference, co-hosted by the governments of Kenya and Portugal, begins in Lisbon
UK, the Wimbledon tennis tournament begins at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in south west London amid controversy over the banning of Russian players
UK, lawyers who are members of the Criminal Bar Association begin strike action in an escalating dispute with the government over funding of trials. The walkout by criminal defence barristers is likely to cause widespread disruption to court hearings across England and Wales.
Tuesday
France, the new National Assembly holds its first session after the June 12 parliamentary election results created a hung parliament — read Martin Sandbu’s (premium) Free Lunch newsletter for a more complete explanation. Also, Australia’s new prime minister Anthony Albanese is due to visit Paris to “reset” relations with France after tensions erupted over a scrapped submarine deal.
Spain, Nato’s summit in Madrid begins with heads of government from its 30 member countries expected to attend and discussions to include Sweden and Finland’s applications to join the military alliance. 2022 marks the 40th anniversary of Spain joining Nato.
Ukraine, Constitution Day marking the anniversary of the signing of the Constitution of Ukraine in 1996
UK, London mayor Sadiq Khan hosts the State of London debate at the O2 in Greenwich plus the Henley Royal Regatta begins on the river Thames
US, British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell is due to be sentenced after being found guilty in a sex abuse trial
Wednesday
Belgium, the Ommegang festival, including a pageant re-enacting the historical entry of Charles V, begins in Brussels
UK, Committee on Climate Change publishes its 2022 progress report to parliament, assessing the UK’s chances of achieving net zero by 2050. Plus another strike threat looms with a ballot for industrial action at Royal Mail over plans to remove 542 frontline delivery managers amid wider restructuring.
Thursday
Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, son and namesake of the notorious late dictator, takes office as the country’s new president
UK, the Future of Britain conference, organised by the Tony Blair Institute to discuss progressive solutions to the country’s problems, begins in London
Friday
Brazil takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council for July
Canada Day, federal holiday commemorating the formation of the union of the British North America provinces that created Canada in 1868
Denmark, the Tour de France begins in Copenhagen. It will end on the Champs-Élysées in Paris on July 24.
EU, the Czech Republic assumes the six-month presidency of the EU
Hong Kong, 25th anniversary of the reversion of the former colony from British to Chinese rule
India, annual Rath Yatra, or Chariot, Hindu festival
Rwanda, National Day commemorating independence from Belgium
Somalia, National Day commemorating the country’s creation from British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland
UK, deadline for WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to launch an appeal against the decision to extradite him to the US to face espionage charges
Saturday
Italy, the Palio di Siena, Italy’s most famous (and controversial) horse race, takes place in the street of Siena’s Piazza del Campo
UK, 50th anniversary of the Pride in London parade
US, World UFO Day takes place on the anniversary of the Roswell incident in New Mexico in 1947
Sunday
Belarus, Independence Day
UK, the 134th annual Wenlock Olympian Games — believed to have inspired the modern games — begin in Wenlock, Shropshire
Source: Economy - ft.com
