Hello and welcome to the working week.
We are living in the age of elected despots. This week the reality will become more obvious as one of their number, Xi Jinping, is elected president for an unprecedented third term at the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, in Beijing.
Xi has been flexing his muscles with his global anti-corruption crusade but this of course is nothing compared with Russian brother in arms, Vladimir Putin, who will be busy furthering his Ukraine invasion. It will be 79 years next Sunday since Joseph Stalin died, but Uncle Joe’s totalitarian principles are alive and well in the fatherland.
Is there hope? Well, Christians will be beginning the long march to Easter with pancake tossing, doughnut munching, beer drinking, parades and street parties for Shrove Tuesday, Carnival or Mardi Gras depending on your particular cultural affinity, after which comes Ash Wednesday.
For those more interested in the democratically elected, Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce on Monday his candidacy for the French presidential election in April — click here for an FT guide to the polls.
Expect strong words about freedom a day later when US president Joe Biden delivers a slightly later than usual annual State of the Union address in Washington.
In the UK, there is a by-election in the West Midlands parliamentary seat of Birmingham Erdington, triggered by the death of the Labour MP Jack Dromey. This very British of midterm election tests will be pored over for evidence of whether Labour party leader Sir Keir Starmer’s recent surge in the polls is a temporary blip or a sustained change. Remember that rumours of democracy’s death may well have been greatly exaggerated.
Thank you for the emails about the unfolding Ukraine invasion and other news events. For those who have yet to share, your opinions are welcome — send emails to jonathan.moules@ft.com.
Economic data
There will be a rush of economic data this week, although the Ukrainian invasion will cloud any future predictions. Highlights include eurozone consumer price index figures, international growth comparisons via a clutch of purchasing managers’ index reports, US labour market updates and fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures for Australia and Canada.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates at its monthly meeting on Tuesday but the Bank of Canada is expected to start a tightening cycle with a 25-basis-points increase to 0.5 per cent. And on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book on the US economic outlook.
Companies
Activist shareholder Elliott Advisors did not get what it wanted at Taylor Wimpey in terms of a new chief executive drawn from “external candidates who have not been a party to the underperformance to date”. Pete Redfern, who stepped down in December, was replaced by operations director Jennie Daly, who has been at the FTSE 100 company since 2014. All of this makes the housebuilder’s results announcement on Thursday potentially interesting: it could prove that Redfern’s strategy was correct and offer a way of assuaging Elliot.
And gathering in person is back in Europe. The world’s largest mobile phone showcase, the Mobile World Congress, returns to its home in Barcelona for the first time since before the pandemic — both the 2020 and 2021 events were cancelled owing to Covid-19 lockdowns. Expect new product announcements from Samsung and other device makers.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Canada, monthly industrial product and raw materials price indices
India, Serbia, Switzerland: Q4 GDP figures
UK, British Retail Consortium’s monthly economic briefing
Results: Bank of Ireland FY, Bunzl FY, HP Q1, Gedeon Richter FY
Tuesday
Australia, central bank RBA holds its monthly meeting
Canada, China, eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: IHS Markit manufacturing PMI data
Canada, February GDP figures
Germany, retail sales figures plus February CPI data
Indonesia, February CPI data
Italy, February CPI data plus Q4 GDP figures
UK, Bank of England monthly money and credit figures plus Kantar monthly grocery market share data
Results: Bayer FY, Baidu Q4, Covestro FY, Dalata Hotel Group FY, Flutter Entertainment FY, Hormel Food Q1, Man Group FY, Swiss Life FY, Travis Perkins FY, Zalando FY
Wednesday
Canada, interest rate decision
EU, flash eurozone inflation data, monthly unemployment figures plus retail sales data
Germany, February labour market figures
South Korea, Q4 GDP data
UK, British Retail Consortium NielsenIQ monthly shop price index plus Nationwide house price index
US, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell testifies to the House committee on financial services plus ADP employment numbers and the latest Beige Book outlining economic conditions
Results: Aviva FY, Hiscox FY, Just Eat Takeaway FY, Kuehne+Nagel FY, Persimmon Homes FY, Piaggio FY, Sberbank Q4, Telecom Italia FY
Thursday
Eurozone, European Central Bank Governing Council meeting minutes
Italy, Japan: monthly unemployment figures
UK, quarterly CBI service sector survey
Eurozone, France, Italy, Germany, UK, US: IHS/Markit services PMI
Results; Admiral FY, CRH FY, ITV FY, Kion Group Q4, London Stock Exchange Group FY, Lufthansa FY, Mondi FY, Schroders FY, Taylor Wimpey FY, Thales Group FY
Friday
Asia, EU, France, Germany, global, UK: IHS Markit construction PMI data
Brazil, Q4 GDP data
France, industrial production figures
Germany, trade balance data
Eurozone, retail sales figures
Italy, Q4 GDP data
US, February employment figures plus motor vehicle sales data
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
France, Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce his candidacy for the presidential election in April, Paris Fashion Week begins, plus an informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy takes place in Rouen
Kenya, fifth session of the UN Environment Assembly meets in Nairobi to begin negotiations on a global plastic waste treaty
Spain, 2022 GSMA Mobile World Congress starts in Barcelona
Switzerland, 49th session of the UN Human Rights Council begins in Geneva. French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian due to speak, focusing on security concerns in Ukraine.
Tuesday
St David’s Day
Meteorological spring begins
Hindu festival of Maha Shivratri, ‘the night of Shiva’
Shrove Tuesday/Mardi Gras/Fat Tuesday celebrations ahead of the start of the Christian festival of Lent on Wednesday
United Arab Emirates assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of March
UK, annual rail fares increase — this year by 3.8 per cent, in line with July’s retail price index inflation rate and the biggest increase in nine years
US, President Joe Biden delivers the annual State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in Washington
Wednesday
Ash Wednesday
UK, FTSE Group, the global index provider, announces changes in its quarterly review of the FTSE UK Index series
Thursday
EU, first meeting of the ‘Schengen Council’ of home affairs ministers in Brussels
Tibet, The Losar Festival launches celebrations of the Tibetan New Year
UK, by-election in Birmingham Erdington, triggered by the death of the Labour MP Jack Dromey, plus World Book Day celebrations
US, National Anthem Day commemorate the 91st anniversary of ‘Star-Spangled Banner’ being adopted as the country’s song
Friday
China, 2022 Paralympic Winter Games start in Beijing
New Zealand, 2022 ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup begins
Saturday
China, National People’s Congress begins its annual plenary session in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing
UK, annual Million Women Rise march and rally in London to highlight male violence against women and girls
Vatican City, Pope Francis presides at a public consistory for the vote on canonisations
Sunday
Russia, anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death in 1953
International Open Data Day about the free flow of information plus National Day of Unplugging in the US to remind people to disconnect from devices
Source: Economy - ft.com
