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Dollar drops as inflation comes in below economists’ expectations

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar dropped sharply on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in March, raising expectations that the Fed is likely to stop hiking rates after a possible increase in May.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% last month, below economists’ expectations for a 0.2% gain, and down from a 0.4% increase in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest year-on-year gain since May 2021. The CPI rose 6.0% on a year-on-year basis in February.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.4% last month after rising 0.5% in February. Sticky rents continued to drive core CPI.

“Headline inflation coming down more than expected is backing the view of the Fed being basically one more and done,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington, D.C.

“The market was just really cautious ahead of the data, as if it had been hotter than expected it might suggest that June might also be a live meeting. But I think with inflation taking a big step down from 6% to 5%, if that sustains, that could give the Fed leeway to cut rates later this year if we see a sharp slowdown in the economy,” Manimbo added.

The dollar index was last at 101.68, down 0.41% on the day and below the level of around 102.11 before the data. The euro reached $1.09900, the highest since Feb. 2, and was last at $1.0967, up 0.48% on the day. The dollar dipped to 133.04 Japanese yen, from around 133.85 before the data.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 69% probability that the Fed will raise rates by an additional 25 basis points at its May 2-3 meeting, down from around 76% before the data.

Retail sales data on Friday will be analyzed next for how consumer spending is being affected by higher prices.

The Fed will release minutes from its March 21-22 meeting later on Wednesday.

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Currency bid prices at 9:10AM (1310 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 101.6800 102.1200 -0.41% -1.749% +102.1600 +101.5000

Euro/Dollar $1.0967 $1.0914 +0.48% +2.34% +$1.0990 +$1.0913

Dollar/Yen 133.0400 133.7100 -0.49% +1.48% +134.0400 +132.7400

Euro/Yen 145.92 145.89 +0.02% +4.01% +146.3800 +145.7900

Dollar/Swiss 0.8978 0.9034 -0.61% -2.89% +0.9034 +0.8970

Sterling/Dollar $1.2445 $1.2427 +0.14% +2.91% +$1.2470 +$1.2400

Dollar/Canadian 1.3458 1.3466 -0.07% -0.69% +1.3489 +1.3433

Aussie/Dollar $0.6701 $0.6654 +0.73% -1.68% +$0.6723 +$0.6649

Euro/Swiss 0.9846 0.9855 -0.09% -0.50% +0.9870 +0.9841

Euro/Sterling 0.8810 0.8782 +0.32% -0.37% +0.8819 +0.8781

NZ $0.6224 $0.6192 +0.53% -1.96% +$0.6242 +$0.6184

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.4500 10.5470 -0.83% +6.57% +10.5670 +10.4130

Euro/Norway 11.4635 11.5157 -0.45% +9.24% +11.5460 +11.4319

Dollar/Sweden 10.3373 10.4583 -0.50% -0.68% +10.4554 +10.3070

Euro/Sweden 11.3384 11.3953 -0.50% +1.69% +11.4125 +11.3225


Source: Economy - investing.com

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