The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, and is expected to slow to 2.6% for the coming year.
While the global economy may avoid a recession, Europe and the United Kingdom may still see its milder form, according to the poll.
A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China’s growth is expected to weaken, as global companies look for alternative locations to reduce their reliance on the country for services such as manufacturing.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.60% 2.10% 4.80% 0.90% 6.3%
Sachs
0.7%
Morgan 2.80% 1.90% 4.20% 0.50% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS 2.60% 1.10% 4.40% 0.60% 0.6% 6.2%
Barclays 2.60% 1.20% 4.40% 0.30% 0.1% 6.2%
J.P.Morg 2.20% 1.60% 4.90% 0.40% 0.2% 5.7%
an
BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.50% 0.1% 5.7%
Global
Research
Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.20% 0.3% 6.0%
Bank
Citigrou 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.20% -0.30% 5.7%
p
U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds
Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec
’24)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.40%
2.50% 4.875%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%
UBS 2.70% 2.75%
Wells Fargo 2.50% 2.60% 4.75%-5.00%
Barclays 2.70% 5.25%-5.50%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50% 4.50%
BofA Global 2.80% 4.50%-4.75%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%
Citigroup 2.60% 4.50%
The Fed’s main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 4700 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15
Morgan Stanley 4500 1 140 7.5
UBS 4600 3.60% 1.15 130 7.15
Wells Fargo 4600-480 4.75%-5.25 1.08-1.1 136-140
0 % 2
Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15
BofA Global 5000 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90
Research
Deutsche Bank 5100 4.10% 1.10 135
Societe 4750 3.75% 1.15
Generale
Citigroup 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
5100
As of 1126 GMT on Dec. 11, 2023:
S&P 500: 4604.37
US 10-year yield: 4.2602%
EUR/USD: 1.0763
USD/CNY: 7.1760
USD/JPY: 146.31
Source: Economy - investing.com
