Hello and welcome to the working week.
Cold enough for you? Blame Punxsatawney Phil. Or, when it comes to the icy cold that has descended (again) over US-China relations, rogue weather balloons.
The cancellation of US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s China trip, and with it the prospect of a historic meeting of him and President Xi Jinping has put relations between the two military and economic powers back in the deep freeze.
But Beijing will at least do some thawing on Monday when it further lifts travel restrictions imposed as long as three years ago. This includes fully reopening mainland China’s border with Hong Kong, expected to boost tourist traffic to the city.
Biden is preparing to warm up his domestic audience with the annual State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday. Attention has been focused on the Republican governor chosen to give the Union response, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who was a polarising figure during her time as press secretary to former president Donald Trump, before being elected in Arkansas as the youngest governor in the US.
One thing that shows little sign of thawing this week is UK industrial relations. Another big day of labour disputes by NHS staff takes place on Monday and Friday – read this analysis of the state of the British health service on the eve of its 75th anniversary. But Britain is not alone. French train workers at SNCF will strike for two days over proposed pension age reforms, demonstrations are planned in Portugal over teacher pay and Spaniards are marching in Madrid in support of healthcare workers.
Thank you again for your comments and suggestions about the new look Week Ahead and the items discussed. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or if you are receiving this in your inbox just hit reply.
Economic data
The UK has been exceptional among leading nations recently for all the wrong reasons. My colleague Chris Giles wrote an excellent explainer on why this has been the case, partly due to the flow of economic reports. This week we will see whether Britain has actually been doing better than expected with an update on fourth-quarter gross domestic product.
Elsewhere, the US has trade, consumer credit, preliminary Michigan Sentiment and annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate revisions, Germany publishes its delayed CPI data along with factory orders and industrial production data while China provides its inflation updates.
Companies
We are knee-deep in company earnings this week, particularly from the US, where the likes of Disney, PepsiCo and MGM Resorts will provide a guide to consumer confidence in these disrupted times. Similar insights from Europe will be provided by Carlsberg on Tuesday and Pandora on Wednesday.
AP Møller-Maersk reports figures on Wednesday and investors will be eager to hear what new chief executive Vincent Clerc plans to do with what is now the world’s second-largest container shipping company. It is challenging times for Maersk given the rather sudden and sharp downturn in container shipping rates.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
EU, December retail sales figures
Germany, December factory orders
UK, S&P Global/Cips construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
Results: Activision Blizzard Q4, Anima FY, JFE Holdings Q3, Pinterest Q4, Sumitomo Corp Q3, Take-Two Interactive Software Q3, Tyson Foods Q1
Tuesday
Canada, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speech at the CFA Society Québec
France, December trade balance data
Japan, December current account and trade balance data
Switzerland, January unemployment figures
UK, January BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor
US, December consumer goods and services trade balance data
Results: BNP Paribas FY, BP Q4, Carlsberg FY, Nintendo Q3, SoftBank Q3, Suzuki Motor Q3,
Wednesday
China, monthly crop outlook
France, Q4 private sector payrolls data
India, central bank rate-setting meeting
Poland, monetary policy committee’s rate-setting meeting
Results: ABN Amro Q4, Adyen H2, AP Møller-Maersk Q4, Ashmore H1, Barratt Developments H1, Bunge Q4, CVS Health Q4, Equinor Q4, Fox Corp Q2, MGM Resorts Q4, Pandora Q4, Smurfit Kappa FY, Société Générale Q4, Walt Disney Company Q1, Yum Brands Q4
Thursday
Germany, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate data
Mexico, consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data
Norway, $1.3tn sovereign wealth fund annual report on responsible investing
UK, RICS January house price data
US, unemployment claims
Results: Aegon Q4, ArcelorMittal Q4, AstraZeneca Q4, Banca Generali FY, Bellway trading update, Bombardier FY, British American Tobacco FY, Compass Group Q1 update, Crédit Agricole FY, Credit Suisse Q4, Deutsche Börse Q4, Enel FY, Equifax Q4, Expedia Q4, Kellogg Q4, L’Oréal FY, Mediobanca H1, Nippon Steel Q3, Nissan Motor Q3, PayPal Q4, PepsiCo Q4, Philip Morris Q4, Ralph Lauren Q3, Redrow H1, Siemens Q1, Toyota Q3, Unilever Q4, Volvo Q4, Willis Towers Watson Q4, Zurich Insurance FY
Friday
Canada, January unemployment rate figures
China, January CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data
China, Q4 current account balance
Germany, December current account balance
Russia, key interest-rate decision
UK, flash Q1 GDP figures
UK, December trade balance data
UK, December industrial production data
US, February University of Michigan sentiment figures
Results: Aker BP Q4, Eneos Q3, Honda Motor Q3, Saab Q4
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
China, travel agencies and online travel booking sites are allowed to resume selling group and business travel for Chinese citizens to 20 China-friendly countries, including South Africa, Thailand, New Zealand, Russia and Switzerland
Norway, defence ministers of Sweden and Finland, deputy secretary-general of Nato and various Norwegian military chiefs begin a two-day security conference in Oslo dedicated to the war in Ukraine
UK, the NHS will be hit with another day of widespread strikes as more than 10,000 ambulance workers in the Unite and GMB unions in England stage further industrial action, while the Royal College of Nurses expects tens of thousands of its members in England to walk out for 12 hours today and tomorrow, in separate pay disputes. Separately, legal advisers and court associates that are part of the Public and Commercial Services Union continue industrial action at HM Courts & Tribunals Service over a new digital case management system.
UK, Church of England General Synod begins its meeting to agree the annual budget and approve new laws for the Anglican denomination as well as debating matters of importance. This year, senior bishops will ask the synod to rescind the policy that clergy in same-sex relationships must be celibate.
Tuesday
France, SNCF workers embark on another two-day strike to protest against President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.
UK, shadow defence secretary John Healey speaks on the Labour party’s vision for defence and security at an event in London
UK, parliament’s Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee questions BBC chair Richard Sharp, who has been accused of helping arrange a loan to former prime minister Boris Johnson when he was applying for his current position
US, President Joe Biden delivers his first State of the Union address after Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives, with observers wondering whether he will launch his 2024 presidential election campaign
Wednesday
North Korea, commemorations of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army in its current form
Thursday
US, former FBI agent Charles McGonigal, who has been charged with working for sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, is expected to appear in federal court in Manhattan
Friday
EU, leaders of member states meet to discuss migration and the effects of the US Inflation Reduction Act and the bloc’s longer-term competitiveness against other big economies
France, annual Nice Carnival opens for its 150th year
UK, ambulance workers from the Unite and Unison unions to strike in London, the South West, North West, North East, Yorkshire and the West Midlands. University staff at more than 150 universities across the UK continue strike action begun yesterday.
US, New York Fashion Week begins with a series of events in Manhattan
Saturday
Iran, Islamic Revolution Day commemorating victory in the 1979 uprising
Portugal, third day of demonstrations planned to demand higher wages and better working conditions for the country’s teachers
UK, Brit Awards for the music industry take place in London
US, Chicago Auto Show begins
Sunday
Germany, Berlin to rerun “chaotic” 2021 state election after the results were declared invalid by the constitutional court owing to numerous irregularities.
Spain, tens of thousands are expected to march in Madrid to support primary healthcare workers over better salaries and working conditions
US, Super Bowl Sunday when the Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Kansas City Chiefs at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The sporting contest is often overshadowed by the half-time entertainment and the budgets spent on the adverts played in the breaks between play
Source: Economy - ft.com
