This article is an on-site version of our Disrupted Times newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox three times a week
Today’s top stories
For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blog
Good evening.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak received some much-needed good news this morning as official data showed inflation falling more than expected, triggering expectations of an interest rate cut in the spring, albeit balanced elsewhere with more warnings about the fragility of the economy and the lingering damage from Brexit.
Inflation fell from 4.6 per cent to 3.9 per cent in November, dragged down by fuel and food prices, to hit its lowest level since September 2021. The core measure, excluding those volatile items, also fell from 5.7 per cent to 5.1 per cent. The data prompted a fall in the pound and a rise in UK stocks.
Markets are now pricing in a quarter-point rate cut in May. The Bank of England voted earlier this month to keep rates unchanged at 5.25 per cent over concerns that UK inflation was proving more stubborn than expected and higher than in the US and the eurozone.
Although this morning’s data will give some relief to the prime minister, who has made halving inflation by the end of the year one of his five core promises to voters, it comes after a torrid few days of bad news.
Yesterday, he was reprimanded by the UK statistics watchdog for erroneously claiming that “debt is falling” — another of his pledges.
Also yesterday, Pimco, one of the world’s biggest active bond fund managers, said the UK was at high risk of a serious economic downturn next year.
A new post-Brexit assessment of trading conditions meanwhile has highlighted the mounting costs facing British businesses that export to the EU.
The British Chambers of Commerce said companies were mired in so much red tape from new EU rules that it was easier to trade with more distant countries and that upcoming changes would have “big repercussions” that the government could not ignore if it wanted to deliver economic growth. On the plus side, the government has at least reached a post-Brexit financial services deal with Switzerland.
Economic challenges aside, Sunak’s political problems continue to mount.
Junior doctors in England and Wales today began another three days of strike action (affecting one of Sunak’s other pledges to cut hospital waiting lists) while it was confirmed that his government would face yet another difficult parliamentary by-election after voters signed a petition to remove Conservative MP Peter Bone.
English councils are also in uproar, arguing that a new funding offer from central government means they will have to raise taxes and cut essential services to avoid bankruptcy.
However, the biggest problem for Sunak ahead of next year’s general election, argues Inside Politics writer Stephen Bush, is that the prime minister has gambled and lost on his “five pledges” strategy, and is likely to meet just one of them. His party, Bush suggests, will now switch to Plan B: attacking the Labour opposition’s spending plans.
This is the last Disrupted Times until the new year. The next edition will be in your inbox on Wednesday January 3. Season’s greetings to all our subscribers.
Need to know: UK and Europe economy
Danish offshore developer Ørsted is to press ahead with the world’s largest offshore wind farm off the British coast, in a boost for the sector after setbacks this year.
UK house prices fell at the fastest rate in more than a decade in the 12 months to October, according to official statistics that revealed the impact of high interest rates on the property market. The average house price now stands at £288,000, down £3,000 from a year ago.
Germany moved to seize more than €720mn in the Frankfurt bank account of a Russian financial institution under sanctions, potentially marking a big step-up in international efforts to enforce anti-Russian sanctions. Here’s our explainer on the legal case for seizing Russian assets.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing questions over his term as Hamburg mayor when the city wrote off the debts of MM Warburg, one of the country’s oldest private banks. Scholz is already grappling with coalition infighting, low public support and a worsening economy.
The EU reached agreement on long-delayed plans to overhaul its asylum and migration rules. Here’s our Big Read on how migration is pushing Europe to the right.
Need to know: global economy
A US-led military coalition and shipowners are trying to establish a safe corridor for commercial shipping as vessels start to divert around Africa to avoid attacks by Iranian-backed militia. AP Møller-Maersk, operator of the world’s second-largest container shipping fleet, said ships due to sail through the Red Sea would be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. The FT editorial board said the situation highlighted the need for resilience in core supply routes.
The Bank of Japan said it would stick with negative interest rates and was in no rush to change policy before the US Federal Reserve considers cutting rates next year. Here’s our recent Big Read on the government’s attempts to get Japan’s legendary savers to switch into investment.
US consumer confidence hit a five-month high in December as optimism about the economy grew and concerns over a potential recession abated. Strategist Rebecca Patterson says the key factors that will determine progress next year are consumer demand, the state of the labour market, commodities and Chinese deflation.
Talking of 2024, here’s FT Money’s investment outlook and (for Premium subscribers) here’s Unhedged’s five things to watch in markets.
The latest FT film looks at South Africa’s state power company Eskom and its struggles to end blackouts that have severely damaged the economy while battling a legacy of neglect, mismanagement and state capture.
Need to know: business
Spain said it would buy up to 10 per cent of shares in telecoms group Telefónica, a national champion with businesses in security and defence. It has been targeted by STC — majority-owned by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund — as the group seeks to expand its investments in Europe.
Eurozone banks should brace for funding sources to become “more volatile” next year, the European Central Bank warned.
Nippon’s $14.9bn bid for US Steel is Japan’s largest overseas acquisition this year and would make the combined group the world’s third-biggest steel producer. The deal signals that the country’s cash-rich corporations are resuming their role as some of the world’s hungriest strategic buyers.
Copper is set to be the best-performing industrial metal of the year as a string of production disruptions squeezes supplies of the commodity used in everything from power lines to cars.
X is diving into political advertising as it tries to fill gaps caused by big commercial brands leaving the social media platform. Meta has been accused of being too heavy-handed in its moderation of social media content on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Xvideos, Pornhub and Stripchat, three of the world’s biggest pornography sites, will be hit by new EU laws on online content, including stricter requirements on age verification.
If you’re in the US and thinking of getting the latest Apple Watch, you’d better get your skates on.
The FT Person of the Year is also DT’s Disrupter of the Year: Novo Nordisk chief Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. His company (now the most valuable in Europe) and its obesity treatments are set to have a profound impact not just on healthcare, but on societies, public finances and our relationship with food.
The world of work
What’s the best way to enjoy your retirement? Get some tips from the new Working It podcast.
Grilling bison, a dip in the north Atlantic or just a few hours with Peppa Pig and the kids — here’s what chief executives get up to at Christmas.
Some good news
Turns out 2023 wasn’t all bad after all. Here’s a list from Positive News of what went right in the past 12 months, from a clear pathway emerging to ending Aids to a tipping point on renewable energy.
Recommended newsletters
Working it — Discover the big ideas shaping today’s workplaces with a weekly newsletter from work & careers editor Isabel Berwick. Sign up here
The Climate Graphic: Explained — Understanding the most important climate data of the week. Sign up here
Thanks for reading Disrupted Times. If this newsletter has been forwarded to you, please sign up here to receive future issues. Please share your feedback with us at disruptedtimes@ft.com and we’ll see you again on Wednesday January 3
Source: Economy - ft.com