In the note titled “HODLers Win the Quarter,” analysts at Mizuho said strong spot volumes following the BTC ETF launch – especially in alt-coins – could drive nearly 40% upside to Coinbase’s first quarter consensus revenue “as high-margin retail investors are drawn into a rising crypto price environment.”
However, even with a favorable near-term setup, Mizuho feels COIN’s long-term fundamental concerns remain.
“These include potential downward pressure on retail fee rates (similar to equities) and a heavy reliance on lower-quality & cyclical revenue streams like alt-coins, staking, and interest income,” explained the firm.
Mizuho values COIN at 18 times its 2025E EBITDA, which it sees as a generous premium to payments, exchange, and asset manager peers but a meaningful discount over its current 26 times multiple.
