BofA and J.P.Morgan have reduced their estimate to 25 bps from 50 bps after the blowout U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday pointed to a resilient economy.
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie and Deutsche Bank reiterated their forecasts of a 25 bps cut each in November and December.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the jobs report:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
2024
Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at
end of 2025
BofA Global Research 25 25 125 3.0%-3.25% (end
2025)
Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50%
Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75%
Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 25 150 3.0% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50%
Management
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the jobs data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
2024
Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at
end of 2025
BofA Global Research 50 25 125
UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50%
Management
Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50%
Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75%
Morgan Stanley 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Citigroup 50 25
J.P.Morgan 50 25
HSBC 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Source: Economy - investing.com
