FirstFT: Decision day in America

Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT. Today we’re covering:

After a tumultuous campaign that has seen two assassination attempts, a candidate withdraw and months of deadlocked polls, we have finally made it to voting day.

After entering the race for the White House only in July after President Joe Biden withdrew, Kamala Harris made her final pitch to voters outside the Philadelphia Museum of Art in Pennsylvania. She gave voters an upbeat message and called on them to back her “fresh start” for America.

Donald Trump was also in Pennsylvania, the biggest prize of the seven swing states, on the final day of campaigning where he focused on his key themes of the economy and immigration. He promised supporters in Pittsburgh a new “golden age” before finishing his campaign in Grand Rapids, Michigan, at 2am.

Both candidates revealed last-minute endorsements to cheering supporters. Harris was backed by rapper Fat Joe, whose parents are of Puerto Rican and Cuban descent. He called on Latinos to vote for Harris.

Trump, meanwhile, was backed by podcaster Joe Rogan, who has a large, young male following, and Fox News host Megyn Kelly at the Pittsburgh rally.

In the closing days of campaigning the Harris camp has been lifted by polling that suggests support from late-breaking undecided voters, particularly women who have been flocking to her and the message on reproductive rights. Trump, on the other hand, has tapped into male anxieties and grievances to build up a strong lead among male voters.

What to look out for as results come in: Expect a long evening. Polls will start closing at 6pm Eastern time (11pm GMT), with the last polls closing at midnight ET in Alaska. News agencies will project results for each state, not just for the presidency but also for races in the House of Representatives and Senate. The winner needs 270 of the 538 electoral college votes to clinch the presidency. The FT will be following the results as they are announced on this live map.

But we may not have a clear result for several days. Each of the swing states counts votes at different speeds, with Arizona, for instance, estimating it could take 10 to 13 days to report full results. Razor-thin margins could lead to recounts, and legal challenges could drag out the process. Just after midnight local time, the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, became the first to declare results, with Trump winning three votes and Harris winning three.

Make sure you are signed up to receive our US election newsletter, with editions both today and tomorrow.

And here is more analysis, including on how authorities are braced for the prospect of civil unrest, the corporate winners and losers and Mohamed El-Erian on the five crucial economic areas for the incoming president.

Here’s what else we’re watching today:

• Results: Apollo Global, Ferrari, Burger King owner Restaurant Brands and commodities group ADM report results.

Five more top stories

1. Boeing workers have voted by 59 per cent to support an improved pay offer and end their strike. The industrial action, which began on September 13, has cost Boeing an estimated $50mn a day and halted production of the 737 Max at Boeing’s Washington factories. Here’s more on the terms of the deal.

2. Shares in Palantir Technologies surged as much as 15 per cent in after-hours trading yesterday as Peter Thiel’s data analytics group reported record quarterly income and raised its revenue forecast, citing high demand for its artificial intelligence software. Read the full story.

3. Ukrainian officials said yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers for the first time since the latter’s deployment by Russia to its western Kursk region. The clashes mark the first direct intervention by a foreign army since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. We have more updates.

4. Taiwan’s soaring energy prices and growing outages are affecting TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker. Following a series of price increases, the company now expects to pay more for power in its home country than anywhere else. Here’s how Taiwan’s shaky energy transition is straining its industry.

5. Lawsuits over decisions taken by previous governments in Argentina, from expropriations to changes to bond payments, are winding their way through courts in the US and Europe, and plaintiffs are piling pressure on the government of Javier Milei to negotiate. Billions of dollars in damages are at stake and could complicate the president’s attempts to fix the country’s struggling economy.

The Big Read

Over the past three years, Europe’s largest economy has slowly but steadily sunk into crisis. Germany has seen no meaningful quarterly real GDP growth since late 2021, and annual GDP is poised to shrink for the second year in a row, with the car, chemicals and engineering sectors all in a slump. What is happening right now is “unprecedented”, one analyst said, and “of a completely different order of magnitude” from previous crises.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Israel unbound: Buoyed by military gains, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now wants to dismantle Iran’s forces across the Middle East and reshape the region.

• Chinese property: After a more than three-year slowdown, there are some signs of life in the country’s real estate market. But interviews in six cities show there are lingering doubts about its longer-term prospects.

• Trade policy: Politicians reach easily for tariffs, but problems such as climate change and inequality have more effective but less popular solutions, writes economist Minouche Shafik.

Chart of the day

The frenzied contest between Trump and Harris, and Joe Biden before her, has generated reams of data, shedding light on US public opinion and voter attitudes on everything from the economy and foreign policy to the candidates’ character. Here are seven charts that have defined the 2024 presidential election.

Take a break from the news

In tribute to Quincy Jones, the legendary US musician and producer whose death was announced yesterday, we are sharing an interview from 2012. Jones talked about his work with some of the most popular artists of the 20th century, including Michael Jackson and Frank Sinatra, and revealed how he learnt cockney rhyming slang from the actor Michael Caine.

Source: Economy - ft.com