Russia goes to the polls as carnage in Ukraine continues

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Good evening.

Voters go to the polls today in a Russian presidential election set to extend Vladimir Putin’s 24-year rule until at least 2030 and which he is likely to use as proof of support for his “special military operation” in Ukraine.

As one focus group put it, only a meteorite hitting the earth, nuclear war, or his own death can prevent Putin’s “ritual reappointment”. The three Kremlin-controlled opponents on today’s ballot admit they’re not trying to win, while any real challengers have been barred from running, are exiled, or in jail.

Opposition instead comes in the form of planned protests at polling stations including “political flash mobs” to honour the memory of Alexei Navalny, Putin’s fiercest critic, who died in a remote Arctic prison colony last month.

The vote, which lasts until Sunday, comes as European leaders attempt to patch up their differences over aid for Ukraine and the FT reveals how Moscow’s “dark fleet” of tankers are operating without oil spill insurance, exposing coastal states in Europe and Asia to huge potential clean-up costs in the event of a disaster. It is the latest example of how Russia is circumventing sanctions — at times with the assistance of western executives.

With a $60bn aid package frozen in Congress, Kyiv is stepping up efforts for alternative donors to fund its defence and avert massive cuts to public spending, with its deficit set to be widened further by the need to mobilise another 500,000 troops to relieve depleted and exhausted soldiers on the frontline. Brussels is stepping up its efforts, including a plan to fast-track up to €3bn for Kyiv from frozen Russian assets.

As we highlight in today’s interview with Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister for strategic industries, Kyiv is urging western allies to fund its domestic weapons production. The country’s freshly retooled factories, he says, can churn out weaponry cheaper and faster than allies but need more contracts to stay sustainable.

Putin meanwhile remains bullish, ramping up his military rhetoric this week, saying Russia was “prepared” for nuclear war if the west threatened its sovereignty. G7 nations are also concerned at Iran’s role in supplying weapons to Moscow.

In the latest news on the conflict, at least 14 people were killed today in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa in what was characterised as a Russian “double tap”: when forces fire a second missile targeting rescuers at the scene of an earlier attack.

Putin is buttressed by the knowledge that his country, at least in the short term, appears to be weathering the effect of sanctions (the IMF has even doubled its prediction for Russian economic growth). Kyiv in turn is stepping up efforts to “deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel” by targeting oil refineries deep inside Russia.

Need to know: UK and Europe economy

Public expectations for UK inflation have fallen to a three-year low, according to a Bank of England survey, coming close to their long-term average and reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts this year.

Only 10 per cent of the £10.5bn earmarked for UK economic regeneration as part of the government’s “levelling up” agenda has been spent since 2020, according to a parliamentary report. One of those places sorely in need of help is the seaside town of Blackpool where life expectancy is the lowest in England.

Sir Keir Starmer is on a mission to reassure business over his proposed reforms to workers’ rights should Labour win the general election. Unions are urging the party’s leadership to scrap rises in the state pension age, saying they could push retirement out of reach for today’s young.

Far-right politician Geert Wilders said he would not become the prime minister of the Netherlands, despite his Freedom party coming first in November’s general election. The centre-right NSC party, which Wilders needs the support of to form a coalition government, made clear that it would not accept him as PM.

A rally in Italian government bonds has narrowed the closely watched gap between the country’s borrowing costs and Germany’s to the lowest level in more than two years, as investors become increasingly optimistic about the prospects for Italy’s economy and position for interest rate cuts.

Need to know: global economy

The US held secret talks with Iran this year to convince Tehran to use its influence over Yemen’s Houthi movement to end attacks on ships in the Red Sea, according to US and Iranian officials. Global trade however seems to be holding up remarkably well.

China has started to offer visa-free entry to visitors from selected countries as it tries to revive a tourism industry struggling to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and a weak economy.

Diamonds are not forever, it appears, at least not in China where waning consumer confidence and Covid-19 restrictions led to a drop in engagements in the world’s second largest consumer market for the gemstones. Even those still tying the knot are shifting to gold.

Is there a way out of Haiti’s political crisis? Listen to the new edition of the Rachman Review podcast.

Need to know: business

Japanese auto rivals Honda and Nissan are joining forces to work on electric vehicle technology as they try to survive the influx of low-cost, high-tech cars from China. Mercedes is trialling humanlike robots for “demanding and repetitive” work.

US President Joe Biden confirmed his opposition to the takeover of US Steel by Nippon Steel of Japan, arguing it was “vital” for the American steel company to remain “domestically owned and operated”. The Lex column is not convinced there are national security reasons for blocking the deal.

Energy giant Shell diluted its climate targets to allow its gas business to keep growing, even as it reaffirmed its intention to cut all emissions by 2050. The move was echoed in a survey by the Bain consultancy showing oil and gas executives now expect a slower transition to net zero. Thousands of companies, including big names such as Microsoft, have been removed from a validation process for failing to submit sufficiently ambitious climate plans.

Global corporate defaults are at their highest level since the financial crisis as subdued consumer demand, rising wages and high interest rates take their toll.

A group of Nestlé shareholders has demanded the world’s biggest food company reduce its reliance on unhealthy products, citing regulatory and reputational risks and growing public health concerns. 

Artificial intelligence editor Madhumita Murgia tells the tale of how a tech-savvy Uber Eats delivery rider, who had become convinced the app was consistently making errors and underpaying, decided to take on the algorithms that controlled him.

Science round up

Neurological conditions such as stroke, dementia and migraine are the biggest global cause of ill-health, affecting billions of people and hitting poorer countries hardest, according to a wide-ranging study. More than 40 per cent of the global population suffered nervous system problems in 2021 despite improvements in prevention and treatment.

UK researchers are working to slash artificial intelligence computing costs by developing cheaper and less energy-intensive alternatives to the current silicon-based digital infrastructure.

The need for better pandemic preparedness was highlighted by a Lancet study showing the Covid-19 pandemic temporarily reversed the 70-year trend in falling global mortality rates. Commentator Anjana Ahuja says the UK risked forgetting the lessons of the pandemic when it comes to the production of vaccines.

Jim Skea, head of the UN’s climate science body, said record temperatures over the past year had thrust the world into “unknown territory” and that “more science” was needed to understand why.

Intuitive Machines will attempt to revive its Odysseus spacecraft as it tries to extend the first successful commercial Moon mission. Odysseus’s systems were put to sleep on February 29 when sunlight no longer reached its solar panels but engineers hope the probe can be rebooted after sunlight returns to the Moon’s south pole. SpaceX’s Starship rocket reached orbit on its third attempt but failed at the final hurdle of its test mission as it attempted to return to Earth.

Some good news

Scientists using artificial intelligence to explore the human body’s “dark genome” have developed a potentially powerful new approach to cancer detection, monitoring and treatment. The research shows how AI and other advanced computing technologies are deepening understanding of diseases and how to deal with them.   

Source: Economy - ft.com