Tough times for retailers

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• Beijing has warned large swaths of its business world, state sector and ruling Communist party that they face an intensified anti-corruption campaign as President Xi Jinping expands his hallmark crackdown on endemic graft.

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Good evening.

Christmas may seem a distant memory, but it is exercising the minds of markets and investors this week as a clutch of retailers report trading figures for the crucial festive period.

Industry data showed UK retailers had a disappointing December, with consumers holding back from big purchases. Figures from J Sainsbury, the UK’s second-largest supermarket chain, showed strong grocery sales but a weaker outcome in non-food categories.

The cost of living crisis has been a PR nightmare for the big retail chains, which in the past year have been accused of greedflation — raising prices faster than costs warrant — and squeezing suppliers of the items on their shelves.

The Lex column (for Premium subscribers) issued a sobering warning to the French supermarket chain Carrefour, which has fallen out with PepsiCo over the price it pays for products such as soft drinks and Doritos crisps: big brands beat retailers in the hearts of consumers.

For clothes retailing, however, it looks as though bricks-and-mortar stores across Europe are bouncing back, as our Big Read explains.

Comfort food has also been a winner, perhaps because a little of what you fancy has helped ease people through these troubled times. Shares in Greggs jumped today after the British purveyor of naughty but nice meat (and vegan) pasties unveiled plans to expand its network of town-centre outlets after a 20 per cent rise in revenue during the last financial year.

Need to know: UK and Europe economy

Eurozone unemployment fell back to a record low of 6.4 per cent and wages continued to grow in November, highlighting the resilience of the bloc’s labour market and adding to European Central Bank worries about the timing of a potential interest rate cut.

Gabriel Attal became France’s youngest prime minister at 34, succeeding Élisabeth Borne in a surprise choice from President Emmanuel Macron.

Need to know: Global economy

The number of container ships at the mouth of the Red Sea on their way to or from the Suez Canal was 90 per cent down in the first week of January compared with the start of 2023, due to the disruption from attacks on ships by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

“Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity.” That was the World Bank’s verdict in its latest economic projections showing the global economy on track for its worst half-decade of growth in 30 years, with expansion of just 2.4 per cent in 2024, down from 2.6 per cent last year.

US crude oil and natural gas output is set to hit fresh records in 2024 and 2025 despite mounting concerns that the shale revolution that fuelled the nation’s energy boom has run its course. The steady growth in oil supplies from countries outside the Opec+ cartel and an uncertain economic outlook are expected to keep a lid on global prices, despite worries over conflict in the Middle East.

“Out of control” levels of public debt around the world are spooking investors and could spark a bond market backlash. Government debt issuance in the US and the UK is expected to hit the highest level on record this year — with the exception of the early stages of the pandemic.

This piece by Alice Hancock in Brussels and Sylvia Pfeifer in London details the potential hit to global trade from the EU’s new tax on imports of carbon-intensive materials. The levy — a world first — comes into force in 2026, starting with cement, iron, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, hydrogen and steel.

Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive party, accused China of unprecedented interference in his country’s elections ahead of Saturday’s poll. National identity is the key issue at stake.

Need to know: Business

Prices of cryptocurrencies swung sharply yesterday after a false post on the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s official X account said the regulator had approved the first-ever US spot bitcoin exchange traded funds.

EU regulators joined their US and UK competition counterparts to investigate whether Microsoft’s investment into OpenAI could be reviewed under the bloc’s merger rules.

Samsung, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, said operating profits fell more than a third to Won2.8tn ($2.1bn) in the fourth quarter, but analysts expect the semiconductor industry to stage a comeback this year as demand grows for high-performance chips.

Danish pioneer Novo Nordisk and rival Eli Lilly have made the running in weight-loss drugs but about a dozen companies are set to announce trial results for more than 20 drugs this year. The Lex column assesses their chances of success.

How much would you be willing to pay to find a partner? In an increasingly crowded market, and with growth slowing, dating apps such as Tinder are introducing more expensive tiers of service and added perks to increase revenue.

The World of Work

Generational divisions in the workplace can be exacerbated by the young’s use of internet-inspired slang. What should bosses do to make sure it doesn’t lead to miscommunication?

The Working It podcast discusses new year’s resolutions with Ali Abdaal, one of the world’s most-followed productivity experts and the concept of “timeboxing” — a pragmatic way to focus on important tasks.

Some good news

Time for one more look back at last year. Here’s Reasons to be Cheerful’s 177 ways the world got better in 2023, from oilfields being transformed into a nature reserve in California to students in Lagos paying their school fees with recyclable plastic bottles instead of cash.