That is slightly weaker than the -6.3% median forecast in a recent Reuters poll, and closer to recent revised estimates from a clutch of global banks including JP Morgan, UBS, HSBC and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), for a contraction of 7% or more.
It is down from -6.25% the previous week and now almost two full percentage points below the government’s official forecast of -4.7%, which itself would still be the biggest annual decline in economic output since records began in 1900.
The weekly ‘FOCUS’ survey on Monday also showed 2020 inflation expectations declining for a 13th consecutive week, albeit it slightly, to 1.53% from 1.55%, another historic low and well below the central bank’s official goal of 4.0%.
Among the survey’s other findings, economists significantly revised their current account deficit and foreign direct investment estimates for this year.
They now expected a current account deficit of $20.5 billion, compared with a $28.1 billion deficit last week and a $35.9 billion shortfall a month ago. The average FDI inflow forecast was reduced to $60 billion from $64 billion a week ago, and over $70 billion a month ago.
