“Unfortunately, my base case scenario is that we will see a second wave of the virus across the U.S., probably this fall. We’re already seeing growth in many states,” Kashkari tweeted Friday while answering questions on the social-media platform. “A vaccine is a long way off.”
“If there is a second wave, I would expect the unemployment rate to climb again. I think the real number today is around 20%,” he added in a follow-up tweet.
The official unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May after the fallout from the pandemic sent it surging to 14.7% in April. According to projections published on June 10, Fed officials saw unemployment ending the year somewhere between 7% and 14%.
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