Hello and welcome to the working week.
Here in London, autumn has felt extra vibrant with a wealth of sunny, mild days, encouraging people out on to streets and parks carpeted with golden coloured leaves. But change is coming. Wednesday is the first day of winter in northern hemisphere countries, according to the meteorological calendar.
The seasons are not the only things that will be changing. The next seven days will produce significant moments for several countries.
Barbados officially becomes a republic on Tuesday. The ceremony formally ends Queen Elizabeth’s period as constitutional monarch, formulated when Barbados gained independence in the 1960s after three centuries as a British colony.
Her Majesty will not be in attendance — owing to reductions in overseas travel rather than diplomatic reasons — so Prince Charles will attend as her representative. Barbados will remain a part of the Commonwealth.
Elsewhere, Gambia holds its presidential election, there is a by-election in London — possibly providing an indication of the public mood after several missteps by UK prime minister Boris Johnson — and on a lighter note Germany embraces winter with the annual Stollenfest.
December 1 is a key date for UK government policy changes. The taper rate for universal credit welfare payments — the amount withdrawn for each pound someone earns — will be cut from 63p to 55p on Wednesday. The move was announced by chancellor Rishi Sunak after he cut the £20 uplift in payments made at the start of the pandemic, a move that was heavily criticised.
There are also a couple of landmark Financial Times events to mention. On Wednesday, the winner of the 17th annual FT and McKinsey Business Book of the Year will be revealed at a ceremony in London. You can see the short list of titles chosen by the esteemed panel by clicking here.
The FT’s annual Global Banking Summit also takes place this week, from numerous locations, debating the future of the industry after the pandemic. Click here to register your place.
One constant in this week of change is my interest in your views on this newsletter — email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com.
Economic data
Statisticians are busy at the end and beginning of every calendar month, not just every quarter. Amid the barrage of reports this week will be a chance to compare the state of leading economies through the manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index data, US employment figures and consumer confidence data, inflation reports for the eurozone and individual European nations plus industrial production numbers for Japan and South Korea.
Watch out also for a rush of Turkish data — inflation, a Q3 gross domestic product figure and the country’s trade balance — which are likely to garner a lot of attention given the last week’s upset.
The events schedule is also busy with the various Opec meetings, publication of the Fed’s Beige Book and testimony from newly reappointed Jay Powell on the Cares Act Relief Bill, and the latest OECD economic outlook report.
Companies
Another season is drawing to a close: that of the quarterly corporate reports. There are just a few earnings updates over the next seven days — chiefly Toronto-Dominion Bank and easyJet. It has been a difficult pandemic for budget airlines, but easyJet’s revenues will have been helped by the relaxation of the UK’s cross-border travel restrictions in Europe.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Eurozone, consumer confidence data
Italy, monthly producer price index (PPI) figures
Germany, flash consumer price index (CPI) data
Japan, industrial production figures and monthly employment rate
UK, Bank of England publishes consumer credit and mortgage lending data
Tuesday
Canada, monthly GDP
China, Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data
EU, flash eurozone inflation figures
France, Q3 GDP and provisional CPI data
Germany, monthly unemployment data
India, quarterly GDP
Italy, Q3 GDP
Microsoft AGM (held online)
UK, British Retail Consortium monthly economic briefing
US, monthly consumer confidence figures
Results: easyJet FY
Wednesday
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: IHS/Markit manufacturing PMI data
Germany, retail sales figures
Mexico, central bank’s quarterly report on inflation and growth forecasts
OECD economic outlook
UK, British Retail Consortium monthly shop price index and Nationwide house price data
US, Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book, providing commentary on current economic conditions
Results: Royal Bank of Canada FY
Thursday
Brazil, Q3 GDP
EU, industrial producer prices and unemployment figures
European Central Bank’s General Council meets in Frankfurt
Italy, monthly unemployment figures
UK, Q3 household finance review
Results: Toronto-Dominion Bank FY
Friday
Brazil, industrial production figures
Canada, monthly unemployment figures
China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: Caixin and IHS/Markit service sector PMI data
EU, retail sales figures
France, industrial production index
UK, Office for National Statistics figures for profitability of British companies
US, monthly unemployment and non-farm payroll figures
Results: Aurubis FY
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Cyber Monday, so called because online retailers prepare for a deluge of orders on their busiest day of the year in the lead-up to Christmas
Iran’s talks with six world powers aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are due to resume in Vienna
UK, British Fashion Awards ceremony at the Royal Albert Hall in London
US, trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, the former associate and girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein, is due to begin in New York
Tuesday
Barbados, former British colony becomes a republic, ending the Queen’s role as constitutional monarch, held since the island became independent in the 1960s.
Scotland, St Andrew’s day celebrated
US, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs to hear testimony from Fed chair Jay Powell and Treasury secretary Janet Yellen on the Cares Act
Wednesday
First day of meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere
India assumes the G20 presidency for 2022
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speech at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries ‘Delivering policyholder protection in insurance regulation.’
World Aids Day marked by the UN
Thursday
UK, by-election for Old Bexley and Sidcup, following the death of James Brokenshire, who had been the Conservative MP for the constituency since 2010
UK, Turner Prize for Art announced at the Herbert Art Gallery & Museum, Coventry — UK City of Culture for 2021.
Friday
UK, Michael Saunders, economist and external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, gives a speech at a Bank of England hosted event, ‘The outlook for inflation and monetary policy’
US, self-imposed deadline for Congress to continue to fund government operations or face a partial shutdown that would be a political embarrassment for President Joe Biden’s Democrats
Saturday
Gambia, presidential election
Germany, annual Stollenfest, celebrating the traditional Christmas pastry dish, begins in Dresden
Only total solar eclipse of the year — and the last total solar eclipse until 2023 — will be visible from Antarctica
US, SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches a Dragon cargo resupply mission to the International Space Station
Sunday
Anniversary of Nelson Mandela’s death
Source: Economy - ft.com
