Hello and welcome to the working week.
Once again an anniversary gives us pause for thought. It will be two years ago this Friday since the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a global pandemic. It was not so long ago that this was the biggest story on the planet. Vladimir Putin has ensured that this is no longer the case.
This newsletter only deals with events in the diary, which limits our ability to warn you about significant developments in the Russian onslaught of Ukraine. However, we do know about two significant events relating to the west’s response to the conflict.
First, Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, will host the leaders of the V4 countries — Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia — in London to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Perhaps most interesting will be the British prime minister’s conversations with his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban. The Hungarian government has nurtured a close relationship with the Kremlin over the past decade, but it has also condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and agreed to most European sanctions. Could Johnson persuade Orban to allow weapons as well as aid to flow across its border with Ukraine?
On Thursday Emmanuel Macron, French president, will host a gathering of EU leaders in Versailles for an informal European Council summit. On the agenda is a wave of applications from former Soviet states to be fast-tracked into EU membership, a move framed as a way to show solidarity with Ukraine but one that is unlikely to be fulfilled, not least because it is fraught with complexity.
South Koreans go to the polls on Wednesday to decide a presidential contest that has been tainted by scandal, family drama and insinuations of corruption, criminality and nepotism, and fraud. A tragedy for an important country — it is the world’s 10th-largest economy — that has been a model in its handling of the Covid pandemic and needs good leadership to tackle real economic problems.
Finally, a clarification. Last week I noted that we had entered the Christian period of Lent and was rightly corrected by Fr Andrew Bushell, a monk in the Orthodox Church, from the St Paul’s Foundation in Massachusetts. As Fr Andrew explained, very graciously, last Wednesday was only the beginning of Lent for western Christians. For the Orthodox Church, the Great Lent — one of four lents in its calendar — begins this week on Clean Monday. I am happy to set the record straight, as you will see in the full calendar of events below.
Thank you for all of your emails — to jonathan.moules@ft.com — about what you like and dislike about this newsletter. Please keep them coming.
Economic data
The unfolding tragedy of the Ukraine invasion has rendered a lot of the historic economic data of recent days irrelevant. However, the crisis will be very much on the minds of the governing council of the European Central Bank when they meet to decide its next move on interest rates on Thursday.
The main UK data releases are backward looking, with January gross domestic product, trade and industrial production figures due on Friday. Expect also inflation updates from several nations including China, Japan, Germany, Italy and the US.
Companies
It’s a week of insurance industry earnings reports. FTSE 100 insurer Prudential will reveal its annual results on Wednesday, a little more than a month after chief executive Mike Wells announced his departure and the group said the next person to lead it would do so from Asia for the first time.
Prudential’s break-up in recent years has left a UK-domiciled company with primary listings in London and Hong Kong, but markets in Asia and Africa. The next global chief might be forced to be stationed outside Hong Kong in the short term, however, given the “friction” created by pandemic-related restrictions, the Financial Times recently revealed.
Lego, the world’s largest toymaker, whose little plastic bricks have been valued more highly than gold, reports full-year results on Tuesday. Expectations will be higher than a child with the Millennium Falcon set on their birthday wish list. Lego’s growth has accelerated throughout the coronavirus pandemic. The question is whether the company can maintain its impressive performance.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
China, February trade balance figures
Germany, January factory order statistics
Japan, January current account and trade balance figures
UK, Halifax monthly house price index
US, January consumer instalment credit figures
Tuesday
Apple stages spring product launch event
Eurozone, Q4 GDP data
Germany, January industrial production figures
Italy, January retail sales figures
Japan, Q4 GDP data
OECD publishes interim economic outlook
UK, Q4 Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return statistics
Results: Ashtead Group Q3, Direct Line Insurance FY, Domino’s Pizza FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, Lego FY, Wood Group FY
Wednesday
China, February consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) figures
Italy, January industrial production data
Japan, February PPI figures
Mexico, February CPI figures
UK, family and households data, revealing trends in living arrangements
Results: 888 Holdings FY, Adidas FY, Cathay Pacific FY, Continental FY, Deutsche Post FY, Kier FY, Legal and General FY, Prudential FY, Vivendi FY
Thursday
EU, European Central Bank governing council meeting in Frankfurt
France, January balance of trade figures and industrial production data
Israel, Q4 GDP data
Italy, January PPI figures
UK, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors February residential market survey plus Recruitment & Employment Confederation & KPMG monthly jobs report
US, February CPI data and weekly jobless claims
Results: Boohoo FY trading update, Brunello Cucinelli FY, Forterra FY, Hapag-Lloyd FY, Hugo Boss FY, Leonardo FY, National Express FY, TCS Group FY, Tod’s FY
Friday
Canada, February employment data
Germany, February CPI data
India, January industrial production figures
UK, January GDP estimate plus monthly production figures
Results: Standard Bank FY
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Austria, the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meet in Vienna
Clean Monday, also known as Pure Monday, Ash Monday, Monday of Lent or Green Monday, is marked in the Eastern Orthodox Church
France, deadline for candidates to collect enough sponsors to participate in the country’s presidential election
India, Voting ends in the last of the seven-phase election in India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh
US, trial begins for three former Minneapolis police officers charged with aiding and abetting unintentional second-degree murder and aiding and abetting second-degree manslaughter in relation to the death of George Floyd in May 2020.
Tuesday
International Women’s Day
UK, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban meets his counterpart Boris Johnson for talks in London
Wednesday
South Korea, presidential election
Spain, Madrid Fashion Week begins
Thursday
France, EU leaders gather for an informal summit in Versailles
UK, longlist for the Booker Prize for literature is announced, plus Crufts, the largest dog show in the world, opens in Birmingham
World Bagpipe Day, celebrating the idiosyncratic instrument
Friday
Second anniversary of the World Health Organization declaring Covid-19 a pandemic
Djibouti, municipal elections
Norway, start of Finnmarkslopet, Europe’s longest and toughest dog-sledge race
US, the South By Southwest Conferences and Festivals for music and film begin in Austin, Texas
Saturday
Sir Tim Berners-Lee publishes annual letter marking the world wide web’s 33rd birthday, on the state of his invention and his vision for its future
Turkmenistan, early presidential election after incumbent Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov resigned
Sunday
Colombia, parliamentary elections
Mali, first round of parliamentary and presidential elections
UK, EE British Academy Film Awards take place at the Royal Albert Hall, London
US daylight savings starts, clocks go forward one hour
Vatican City, Pope Francis marks the ninth anniversary of his appointment
Source: Economy - ft.com
