The current projection is for a 25 bps move, with some even expecting no hike at all.
That is a quick reversal in expectations after a sharp fall in weekly jobless claims and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had prompted traders to see a near 70% chance of a 50 bps rate hike.
Following are rate expectations from major Wall Street Banks:
Bank Current expectation Expectation before SVB
crisis
March hike Terminal March Terminal rate
(in bps) rate hike
(in
bps)
Goldman No hike 5.25% – 5.5% 25 5.5% – 5.75%
JPM 25 5% – 5.25% 25 5% – 5.25%
Citi 50 5.5% – 5.75% 50 5.5% – 5.75%
BofA 25 5.25% – 5.5% 25 5.25% – 5.5%
Morgan 25 5.12% 25 5.125%
Stanley
Barclays (LON:BARC) 50 5.5% – 5.75% 25 5.25% – 5.5%
Source: Economy - investing.com
