Chinese president Xi Jinping has met or called his Russian counterpart at least five times since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But his first call to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy came just this week, days after a Chinese envoy angered Europe by questioning the sovereignty of post-Soviet states.
Chinese officials say the timing was coincidental and have hailed the call as the latest step in Beijing’s push for peace. But in Europe, the call to the Ukrainian leader is viewed by many as an attempt to contain the fallout from the remarks by the ambassador to France.
“They need to do some damage control after the Paris ambassador’s comments,” said one senior EU official.
After Vladimir Putin ordered last year’s invasion, Xi faced growing criticism in the west for maintaining a close relationship with the Russian president, and the US has warned Beijing not to supply Moscow with weapons.
In February, China released a 12-point position paper on the war, but this was attacked in the west for failing to condemn the invasion and containing more veiled criticism of Nato than Russia.
That scepticism mounted last month after Xi attended a state visit in Moscow but did not, as was widely expected, immediately follow that up with a call to Zelenskyy.
Many western analysts believe the outburst last weekend by ambassador Lu Shaye, in which he also cast doubt on Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea, played a role in finally precipitating the call.
Others say China realises it needs to do more to convince Europe of its sincerity if it is to participate in any postwar settlement. This is particularly important as the EU starts work on a new policy towards China expected to be concluded by the end of June.
“Russia may not win this war,” said Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House. “China wants at least to have a voice in Ukraine after the conflict to prevent Ukraine totally pivoting to the west during the post-conflict state-building process.”
In the hour-long conversation between the presidents, the first since the war started, China also said it would dispatch a special envoy to shuttle between the warring parties, its strongest step yet towards trying to act as mediator in the conflict.
The person chosen is Li Hui, a veteran diplomat and former ambassador to Moscow who is currently special representative of the Chinese government on Eurasian affairs.
Li will engage in “in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis”, according to an official Chinese statement.
Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing and a prominent pro-government scholar, said Xi’s call “gives significant pushback against rumours that China is pro-Russia and is benefiting from the conflict . . . China is a peacemaker, not a troublemaker.”
Chinese scholars in Beijing argued that the call would have been planned weeks in advance and probably had little to do with Lu’s outburst.
Instead, China was taking its time to find its own position on the war rather than being forced into a stance by the west, said Cui Hongjian, dean of European studies at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.
“China wants its own autonomy; we will not just ‘follow you’,” he said.
For Ukraine, the call did not produce concrete results. But at least it opened a dialogue with Beijing that could help ensure that China remains militarily neutral. While China’s trade with Russia has risen rapidly, there is no evidence that the country is sending weapons to Putin’s army.
Before the war, China and Ukraine had a close relationship. Academics in Beijing cite Ukraine’s sale to China in 1998 of a hull that became the Asian country’s first aircraft carrier as a mark of their long friendship.
Outwardly European leaders praised the call. “It is an important, long overdue first step by China,” said Eric Mamer, spokesman for Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.
An Elysée official underlined that Emmanuel Macron had urged Xi to speak to Zelenskyy during the French president’s state visit to Beijing earlier this month.
Macron has long said he believes China has a role to play in influencing Russia and has told his top diplomat to liaise with his Chinese counterpart to prepare for potential peace talks, should Ukraine agree to take part.
US officials, however, responded sceptically.
“Whether that’s going to lead to some sort of meaningful peace movement or plan or proposal, I just don’t think we know that right now,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
Russia’s foreign ministry said the call demonstrated “China’s readiness to make efforts to straighten out the negotiating process”, but added that the US would probably push its Ukrainian “puppets” to reject Beijing’s proposals.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters Russia was “prepared to welcome everything that could bring the end of the conflict in Ukraine closer” but said Russia was still intent on “achieving all of the goals that have been set”.
Xi’s call and the appointment of Li as an envoy allowed China to continue positioning itself as a potential peacemaker while doing little to stop the war, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“There are positive side-effects to the war for China: Russia becomes the junior partner selling them energy and other resources at a discount. But there are negative side-effects: China is being criticised for supporting Russia. So China needs to show it’s for peace, not for Russia,” Gabuev said.
“European leaders have said for a long time that Xi has to talk to Zelenskyy if he’s seriously interested in peace.”
Beijing said that during the call Xi reiterated China’s opposition to any use of nuclear weapons in the war. “No one wins a nuclear war,” Xi told Zelenskyy, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.
China’s opposition to the use of nuclear weapons is one of the few areas in which it has openly differed from Putin, who has repeatedly threatened to deploy them.
Overall, analysts said, the call represented a “flanking movement” by China to shore up support for itself against its main adversary, the US, with which it is engaged in increasingly tense competition on everything from Taiwan and the South China Sea to the economy and advanced technology.
By presenting a more neutral front, according to analysts, China hoped to drive a wedge between the US and the EU while also showing the developing world that it was a force for peace, in contrast to Washington, which it has accused of pumping arms into the war.
The senior EU official said the call was a “signal to others in the global south that they are a global leader”.
“If you want more influence on everyone, you should have the appearance of some neutrality,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, adding that you “lose nothing” with a simple phone call.
Reporting by Max Seddon in Riga, Henry Foy in Brussels, James Kynge and Yuan Yang in London and Leila Abboud in Paris
Source: Economy - ft.com
