Trump’s former fixer in court, UK by-elections and Argentina goes to the polls

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

One story will dominate the news over the next seven days. The extremely difficult and complex Israel-Hamas war will be covered in full by the FT. Click here for our news, analysis and opinion about this harrowing conflict.

In diarised news, elections, party politics and corporate results are in abundance this week with the current earnings season getting into full swing, yet more British by-elections and other important national polls.

Donald Trump returns to New York state court on Tuesday to hear his one-time lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen testify against him in a civil fraud case that has clearly, and understandably, rattled the former president.

Trump wants to get back in office. Across the Atlantic, the UK’s Conservative and Scottish National parties are trying to retain power in the Westminster and Holyrood parliaments. This makes both the SNP conference in Aberdeen, and in particular the closing speech by embattled leader Humza Yousaf on Tuesday, and the Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections on Thursday, important calendar notes. The results of those latter two votes are noteworthy in part because they still hang in the balance, despite heightened local anti-Tory sentiment.

Argentina has an election on Sunday, and the markets are nervous. The peso tumbled against the dollar last week as voters and markets braced for a possible victory by Javier Milei, a radical rightwing economist who wants to dollarise the economy.

The headline economic items this week will be China’s third-quarter gross domestic product figures, laying bare the state of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, as well as the UK employment and inflation figures, fuelling further debate on whether interest rate cycles have peaked.

Netflix and Tesla open the run of quarterly tech results this week, while Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BNY Mellon and Morgan Stanley bring to a close the earnings reports from Wall Street banks. Semiconductor companies are another theme among the analyst calls, notably Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC on Thursday. Taiwanese semiconductor suppliers are targeting investment in Europe as the construction of the first advanced chip factories on the continent in decades reshapes supply chains.

Finally, a reminder of the launch this week of the FT’s central banks newsletter by Chris Giles. Register here to receive it every Tuesday and click here to sign up for a special FT subscriber webinar on the lessons from the battle against inflation, which will air on October 26, 1-2pm UK time.

Thanks again for your comments about this newsletter. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this in your inbox, hit reply.

One more thing . . . 

Friday marks the 50th anniversary of the Sydney Opera House opening on the harbour front of Australia’s largest — or perhaps now second-largest — city. Having had the privilege to visit, I would say it still stands as one of the wonders of the modern world. Judge for yourself.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Walt Disney, the world’s largest entertainment company, commemorates its 100th anniversary

• Bank of England deputy governor Sam Woods speaks to financial services industry leaders at Mansion House in London

• UK: Rightmove October House Price Index

• Results: Charles Schwab Q3, Hollywood Bowl trading update, Rio Tinto Q3 operations review

Tuesday

• Swati Dhingra, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, speaks as a panellist at the Royal Economic Society Summit

• EU: Ecofin meeting, expected to include discussions about how to unlock capital funding in the economic bloc

• Germany: October ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey

• UK: monthly unemployment rate and average weekly earnings figures

• US: September retail sales figures

• Results: Albertsons Q2, Bank of America Q3, Bank of New York Mellon Q3, Bellway FY, Ericsson Q3, Goldman Sachs Q3, JB Hunt Q3, Johnson & Johnson Q3, Jupiter Fund Management Q3 trading update, Lockheed Martin Q3, MoneySupermarket.com Q3 trading statement, NinetyOne trading statement, Omnicom Q3, Prologis Q3

Wednesday

• China: Q3 GDP figures

• EU: September consumer price index (CPI), Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• UK: September CPI, PPI and retail price index (RPI) inflation rate data. Also, Office for National Statistics House Price Index

• US: Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book

• Results: ABB Q3, Abbott Laboratories Q3, Alcoa Q3, ASML Q3, Barratt Developments trading update and AGM, BHP Group operational review, Citizens Financial Group Q3, Crown Castle Q3, Deutsche Börse Q3, Just Eat Takeaway Q3 trading update, Liontrust Asset Management H1 trading update, L’Oréal Q3 sales update, Morgan Stanley Q3, Nasdaq Q3, Netflix Q3, Northern Trust Q3, Procter & Gamble Q1, Tesla Q3, United Airlines Q3, Volvo Q3, Whitbread H1, Wipro Q2

Thursday

• France: October business confidence data

• US: Conference Board Leading Index

• Results: AJ Bell trading update, American Airlines Q3, AT&T Q3, Blackstone Q3, CSX Q3, Deliveroo Q3 trading update, Dunelm Q1 trading update, Equifax Q3, Hargreaves Lansdown Q1, London Stock Exchange Group trading update, Man Group trading statement, Marsh & McLennan Q3, Nestlé Q3 sales update, Nokia Q3, Pernod Ricard Q3, Philip Morris International Q3, PPG Industries Q3, Rank Group trading statement and AGM, Renault Q3, Rentokil Initial Q3 trading statement, Roche Q3, Schroders Q3 trading update, Snap-On Q3, St James’s Place Q3, TSMC Q3, Union Pacific Q3

Friday

• UK: September retail sales figures, GfK Consumer Confidence survey and public sector net borrowing figures

• Results: American Express Q3, Comerica Q3, Foxtons Q3 trading update, InterContinental Hotels Group Q3, Interpublic Q3, Schlumberger Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Germany: President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meets Jordan’s King Abdullah II on a state visit to Berlin

• South Africa: five-day Africa Energy Week conference begins in Cape Town, where business executives and politicians from across the continent will discuss the transition to renewable energy as well as current oil and gas reserves

• US: hearing in Washington federal court on special counsel Jack Smith’s request for a court order limiting former president Donald Trump’s public statements about people involved in the federal election case against him

Tuesday

• Albania: French president Emmanuel Macron arrives in Tirana for the first bilateral visit by a French head of state in the history of the Albanian state

• China: President Xi Jinping attends the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, marking the 10th anniversary of the global trade Initiative

• UK: Scottish National party leader Humza Yousaf speaks at the last day of the SNP conference in Aberdeen

• US: Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s one-time lawyer and fixer, is due to testify in the New York civil case in which the former president is accused of overstating his wealth by as much as $2.2bn a year to gain favourable loans

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

• 50th anniversary of the opening of the Sydney Opera House

• US: President Joe Biden hosts the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Charles Michel in Washington, expected to project unity over the Israel-Hamas and Ukraine conflicts and possibly some progress on trade agreements

Saturday

Sunday

• Argentina: first round of voting in the presidential election

• Switzerland: federal elections for the two parliamentary chambers

• UK: 60th anniversary of the National Theatre’s first performance under the leadership of inaugural artistic director Laurence Olivier