FirstFT: Li Qiang says China’s economy grew an ‘estimated’ 5.2% last year

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Good morning. China’s economy grew an “estimated” 5.2 per cent last year, beating the official target, the country’s number two leader, Premier Li Qiang, said in Davos.

Li said China’s growth rate last year was achieved without resorting to “massive stimulus” and the economy was making “steady progress”.

Beijing’s 2023 growth target of 5 per cent was China’s lowest in decades. The economy’s emergence from Covid has been hampered by a deep property slowdown, falling exports and a lack of investor confidence.

Li’s announcement of the GDP figure surprised economists, who had been preparing for the official release of the data today by the National Bureau of Statistics.

“China used to be a place where you’d know when this sort of thing would be published, but that has changed radically,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, who described the decision to announce the figure early as “bewildering”.

Here’s more from Li’s speech at the World Economic Forum — and scroll down for an in-depth read on a “critical year” for China’s economy.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The EU and UK publish inflation figures for December.

• Reports: Opec publishes its January Oil Market Report.

• Nato: The military chiefs of defence meeting opens at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.

The continued slowdown in global M&A activity and job cuts loom large over bonus season this year. For the third year in a row, the FT is asking readers to confidentially share their 2024 bonus expectations, and whether you intend to invest, save or spend the cash. Complete the speedy anonymous survey here.

Five more top stories

1. North Korea is to drop from its constitution its commitment to unification with South Korea, in a historic break with a decades-long policy amid mounting military tensions on the Korean peninsula. Kim told North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly on Monday that South Korea was his country’s “principal enemy”. Read what analysts said about North Korea’s ominous shift.

2. US forces yesterday carried out fresh strikes on targets linked with Houthi militants in Yemen, amid disruption to global trade caused by cargo ships diverting to avoid the Iran-backed group’s attacks in the Red Sea. However, the Houthis still succeeded hours later in launching a missile that struck a Greek-owned Maltese-flag ship sailing towards the Suez Canal. Here’s how the latest round of strikes affected shipping in the crucial waterway.

3. Apple in 2023 became the world’s top smartphone maker by volume for the first time, ending Samsung’s 12-year reign as the industry leader. The iPhone manufacturer last year was the only major handset maker to post annual unit growth, despite declining sales in China in recent quarters. Apple is offering Chinese customers a limited-time discount on some of its latest iPhone models, as local rivals including Huawei gained market share.

4. Exclusive: Chinese authorities have in recent days told some institutional investors not to sell stocks, as regulators face renewed pressure to stabilise share prices following the steep decline in the first weeks of the new year. Financial regulators are under pressure from top leaders to end a protracted sell-off that has left the benchmark CSI 300 down 19 per cent in the past year.

5. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have reported their lowest annual profits in four years. The results capped a challenging year for the two banks, as a dearth of deals and public listings weighed on their fee income.

News in-depth

Policymakers in Beijing are bracing for a decisive year in their battle to restore confidence in China’s economy and escape the threat of a debt-deflation spiral. While China is forecast to exceed its 2023 growth target, economists are predicting a more challenging year ahead as a property crisis drags on, exports weaken and investors steer clear of China’s financial markets.

We’re also reading . . . 

Chart of the day

From demography to technology, we must pay attention to the forces that will shape our future, writes Martin Wolf in his latest column. One trend to watch is falling fertility rates, which are far below replacement levels in many countries, especially China.

Take a break from the news

A new Four Seasons “floating resort” in Palau offers some of the world’s best scuba diving. The three-deck catamaran offers levels of comfort unheard of in most dive boats, with the ability to raise anchor and sail away on a whim to the next bay or the next of the Pacific nation’s many islands.

Additional contributions from Tee Zhuo and Gordon Smith