South Carolina holds primaries as Super Tuesday nears

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Or in the case of Nikki Haley’s campaign to secure the Republican party nomination for November’s presidential election, a week when everything seems to be not working.

Haley’s home state of South Carolina holds its Republican party primary on Saturday, but it would take a monumental swing from all the polls to date to give her victory over Donald Trump. Can she make it to Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and territories will hold their primary contests? Former president Trump is as much as 37 points ahead of Haley so he could be handed the nomination before this week is out if Haley withdraws.

For more insights into the only Trump challenger currently left in the race, read this analysis by my colleague Lauren Fedor, who has been following the candidates on the campaign trail. Also, don’t miss the first edition of our US Election Countdown newsletter, launching on Tuesday (sign up here to receive it). It’s free for registered readers and FT newsletter subscribers, and will be written by Washington-based Steff Chávez, focusing on the financial aspects of the election.

Saturday is also the second anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine, a marker for a conflict that has never left the news pages of the Financial Times. I would like to take this moment to thank those of you who have written to me about the impact of the war, and also point to this useful explainer for following the latest developments.

Earnings season rolls on, with the US spotlight set to fall on tech darling Nvidia and major retailers such as Walmart.

Nvidia’s market capitalisation has quintupled since the start of 2022 to almost $1.8tn, thanks to the stock market euphoria over AI — a boom largely built on Nvidia’s chips. Nvidia last week supplanted tech bro Alphabet as America’s third most valuable company.

Walmart is expected to post a rise in fourth-quarter sales on Tuesday, covering the key holiday shopping period. Investors will be listening for comments on consumer demand for the year ahead as food prices ease, but disruptions in the Red Sea continue and high interest rates hit weekly grocery spending.

Banks will be in focus in the UK after NatWest got things started on Friday with some positive numbers. We’ll see whether the rest of the pack can match expectations over the next five days.

We’re also due a stream of central bank speakers, alongside monetary policy meeting minutes from the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Full details of these and the other economic news items below.

One more thing . . . 

This Sunday the Moules family will be enjoying a roast lunch with all the trimmings. In fact, the same was true last week, just a different joint — we circulate through the farm yard, and vegetable, options to add a little variety. Our reason is traditionally British — for churchgoers with a programmable oven, it’s a no-brainer. As my colleague Bryce Elder explains — reviewing the five-star roast lunch at Claridge’s (where else?!) — this meal is the work of God.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Camillo Pane becomes Alliance Pharma chair, succeeding Jo LeCouilliard

• China: stock exchanges reopen after Chinese Lunar New Year holiday

• Germany: Buba Monthly Report

• Sweden: January consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: Rightmove February House Price Index

• US: Presidents Day. Financial markets closed

• Results: Ferretti FY, Lend Lease HY, MoneySupermarket.com FY, Reliance Worldwide HY, Wilmington HY

Tuesday

• Australia: central bank releases monthly monetary policy minutes

• Canada: January CPI inflation rate data

• China: People’s Bank of China loan prime rate (LPR) announcement.

• UK: monetary policy report hearings

• US: Conference Board Leading Index

• Results: Air Liquide FY, Allegion Q4, Bakkafrost Q4, Barclays FY, BHP HY, Caesars Entertainment Q4, Carrefour FY, Cushman & Wakefield Q4, Home Depot Q4, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) FY, Medtronic Q3, Palo Alto Networks Q2, Petra Diamonds HY, Plus500 FY, Singapore Airlines FY, Walmart Q4

Wednesday

• EU: consumer confidence figures

• Indonesia: interest rate decision

• Japan: January trade balance data (AM local time)

• South Africa: January CPI inflation rate data

• UK: Public Sector Finance Statistics (net borrowing net cash requirement and net debt) for January. Also, HM Treasury forecasts for the economy

• US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

• Results: Analog Devices Q1, BAE Systems FY, Etsy Q4, Garmin Q4, Glencore FY, Heathrow FY, HSBC FY, National Australia Bank Q1, NiSource Q4, Nvidia Q4, Rio Tinto FY, Tate & Lyle Q3 trading statement, Wix.com Q4

Thursday

• Canada, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: February S&P Global/HCOB purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for manufacturing and services

• EU: European Central Bank publishes minutes from its last monetary policy discussions, with an overview of the financial market and economic situation. Also, January harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data.

• Korea: interest rate decision

• Turkey: interest rate decision

• Results: Anglo American FY, Danone FY, Ferroglobe Q4, Genus HY, Hargreaves Lansdown HY, Hays HY trading update, Huntsman Q4, Intuit Q2, Indivior Q4, Jupiter Fund Management FY, Lenovo Q3, Lloyds Banking Group FY, ME Group FY, Mercedes-Benz FY, Mondi FY, Morgan Sindall FY, Nestlé FY, Pantheon International HY, Qantas Airways HY, Rolls-Royce FY, Safestore Holdings Q1 trading update, Telefónica FY, WPP FY, Ziff Davis Q4, Zurich Insurance Group FY

Friday

• Germany: final Q4 GDP data and Ifo business climate survey

• Russia: Defender of the Fatherland Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: electricity and gas regulator Ofgem updates the energy price cap. Also, GfK’s Consumer Confidence Survey

• US: Fed Monetary Policy Report

• Results: BASF FY, Deutsche Telekom Q4, Proximus Q4, RE/MAX Holdings Q3, Standard Chartered FY, Warner Bros Discovery Q4

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

Tuesday

• India: Indus X held in New Delhi by the US-India Business Council and the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers in collaboration with the US Department of Defense and Indian Ministry of Defence

• Thailand: Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development begins in Bangkok

• UK: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange begins a final appeal in London against extradition to the US

• UK: National Farmers Union annual conference begins in Birmingham, entitled British food — what plan for the future

Wednesday

Thursday

• 50th anniversary of Pakistan recognising the independence of Bangladesh during a summit in Lahore

• UK: former prime minister Liz Truss speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in the US capital, Washington

• US: IM-1 lunar lander, designed by Intuitive Machines, the first privately financed mission to the moon, is scheduled to land on the lunar surface today

Friday

• Japan: the Emperor’s Birthday. Public holiday

• UK: start of a four-day meeting for General Synod, the Church of England’s main legislative body

Saturday

• Second anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine

• Taiwan: Lantern Festival, marking the end of the country’s lunar new year celebrations across the country

• US: South Carolina Republican primary election

Sunday