FirstFT: Iran oil exports hit 6-year high

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Good morning. We have an exclusive story on Iran’s oil exports reaching a six-year high and giving its economy a $35bn-a-year boost despite sanctions.

Tehran sold an average of 1.56mn barrels a day during the first three months of the year, almost all of it to China — its highest level since the third quarter of 2018, according to data company Vortexa.

Iran’s success in exporting its crude underscores the difficulties facing the US and the EU as they seek to build up pressure on Tehran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.

Washington and the EU are preparing new sanctions on the Islamic republic, in part to dissuade Israel from escalating the conflict with Tehran by retaliating. US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen admitted this week that Iran “clearly” continued to export its oil and that there was “more to do” to curb the trade. Here’s more on the limits of western attempts to rein in the Islamic republic.

• Israelis split over Iran: While the public in Israel has overwhelmingly supported the war effort in Gaza, there is no such consensus over how to respond to Tehran’s drone-and-missile strike.

• Iran raises the stakes: What will the leaders of Israel and Iran be thinking about as they ponder their next move, asks Gideon Rachman in his latest podcast episode of The Rachman Review.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• G20: The group’s finance ministers gather in Washington on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF spring meetings.

• Companies: Blackstone, Netflix, Alaska Air Group and DR Horton report results.

• Monetary policy: Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, New York Fed president John Williams and Fed governor Michelle Bowman appear at public events.

• Economic data: Existing home sales for March and new applications for unemployment for the week ended April 13 are released.

• Venezuela: A US licence allowing Venezuela to export oil and gas to its chosen markets will probably expire, with the Biden administration saying the government has failed to meet conditions for a free and fair presidential election.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: One of the largest private western investors in Ukraine has accused the country’s officials of corruption, claiming they are trying to extort tens of millions of euros from him. Arnulf Damerau, an Anglo-German businessman and a former adviser to Glencore and Trafigura, told the Financial Times he was being blackmailed by a clique of senior Ukrainian officials. Read the full story.

• Russian assets: US-backed proposals to use more than €260bn of frozen assets to fund Ukraine risk breaking international law, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has warned.

2. A US congressional effort requiring TikTok’s Chinese owner to divest the app has been put on a faster track, with the vote due to take place on Saturday. It comes after House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a new package of legislation that could compel the Senate to support the measure. Johnson said the House would vote on three funding bills (for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan) and a fourth bill on the popular video-sharing app. Here’s more on what is next for the TikTok ban bill.

3. Sam Salehpour, a quality engineer at Boeing, told a Senate committee yesterday that the aircraft manufacturer “absolutely” has a culture of retaliation against employees who raise safety concerns. Salehpour said he was berated by a manager in response to repeatedly questioning the safety of the 777 and 787 aeroplanes. Separately, he said he found a nail suspiciously embedded in his car tyre. “I was ignored; I was told not to create delays; I was told, frankly, to shut up,” he said.

4. OpenAI’s latest artificial intelligence model has almost matched expert doctors in analysing eye conditions, according to a paper published yesterday. The Microsoft-backed start-up’s GPT-4 model surpassed or achieved the same scores as all but the top-scoring specialist medics in assessing ocular problems and suggesting treatments. Here’s more on the potential implications for medical treatments.

5. Adam Neumann has made a fresh push to regain control of WeWork even as the co-working pioneer races to raise as much as $400mn in fresh funding to avoid a sale, according to two people familiar with the matter. WeWork was in discussions with existing lenders including SoftBank and Yardi Systems, a real estate tech provider that has partnered with it on various projects, a person close to WeWork said. Here’s more on Neumann’s campaign for control of WeWork.

The Big Read

From Estonia to Lithuania, the Baltic states are busy adding bunkers, anti-tank obstacles and fences as part of a new defensive line on Nato’s eastern border with Russia. The works are a visible sign of how security in the military alliance’s frontline states is now determined by Russia’s war in Ukraine, with Baltic leaders seeing the tide turning in Moscow’s direction. Officials are concerned that Vladimir Putin could test the military alliance’s resolve with provocations — or even the “nightmare scenario” of an outright attack.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Interest rates: The great bet on rate cuts is dead, writes Katie Martin. But how did markets and policymakers get inflation so wrong?

• US dollar: Recent concerns about the health of the dollar are misplaced, argues Alan Beattie. Recent episodes of geopolitical turmoil have burnished its safe-haven credentials.

• Climate change: The United Arab Emirates this week experienced its heaviest rains for 75 years. Dubai airport, the world’s second-busiest aviation centre, advised people not to fly. Here’s the latest.

Chart of the day

The Vix index, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, is at its highest level since October as tensions rise in the Middle East and expectations lower of interest rate cuts. US investors are reassessing their strategies to protect their portfolios against market gyrations because of the increase in premiums.

Take a break from the news

It looks like video games may be coming for the novel, writes Imogen West-Knights. While the fiction books market is thought to be valued at about $11bn globally, the worldwide gaming market is projected to reach revenues of more than $280bn this year. Traditionally, the quality of writing in games hasn’t been seen as the point, but is that starting to change?

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Tee Zhuo