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CPI Data Will Arrive Just Before the Fed Meets. Will It Be a Game Changer?

The latest data could help to restore policymakers’ conviction that inflation is in the process of returning to the Federal Reserve’s goal.

Just hours before the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, fresh inflation data showed that price increases slowed notably in May.

The new report is a sign that inflation is cooling again after proving sticky early in 2024, and it could help to inform Fed officials as they set out a future path for interest rates. Policymakers had embraced a rapid slowdown in price increases in 2023, but have turned more cautious after inflation progress stalled early this year. The latest data could help to restore their conviction that inflation is in the process of returning to the central bank’s goal.

Here’s what to know:


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A bar chart showing the April-to-May changes in a selection of categories of the Consumer Price Index, adjusted for seasonality. 11 of the 24 categories shown rose, led by tobacco products and medical care commodities. Gasoline and airline fares declined the most.

Monthly changes in May

Tobacco products

+1.6

%

Medical care commodities

+1.3

Used cars and trucks

+0.6

Hospital services

+0.5

Food away from home

+0.4

Rent of primary residence

+0.4

Motor vehicle repair

+0.3

Cereals and bakery products

+0.2

Meats, poultry, fish and eggs

+0.2

All items excl. food and energy

+0.2

Alcoholic beverages

+0.1

All items

0

Fruits and vegetables

0

Electricity

0

Physicians’ services

0

–0.1

%

Motor vehicle insurance

–0.3

Nonalcoholic beverages

–0.3

Apparel

–0.4

Fuel oil

–0.5

Dairy products

–0.5

New vehicles

–0.8

Piped utility gas service

–3.6

Gasoline (all types)

–3.6

Airline fares

Monthly changes in May

Tobacco and smoking products

+1.6

%

Medical care commodities

+1.3

Used cars and trucks

+0.6

Hospital services

+0.5

Food away from home

+0.4

Rent of primary residence

+0.4

Motor vehicle maintenance and repair

+0.3

Cereals and bakery products

+0.2

Meats, poultry, fish and eggs

+0.2

All items excluding food and energy

+0.2

Alcoholic beverages

+0.1

All items

0

Fruits and vegetables

0

Electricity

0

Physicians’ services

0

–0.1

%

Motor vehicle insurance

–0.3

Nonalcoholic beverages

–0.3

Apparel

–0.4

Fuel oil

–0.5

Dairy and related products

–0.5

New vehicles

–0.8

Piped utility gas service

–3.6

Gasoline (all types)

–3.6

Airline fares

May-to-April changes in a selection of categories of the Consumer Price Index, adjusted for seasonality.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By Karl Russell

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Source: Economy - nytimes.com


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