The economic impact would result from severe damage to infrastructure in the conflict region and the potential for compromised shipping lanes, Lloyd’s said in a statement.
Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have already disturbed shipping routes in the Black Sea and Red Sea.
“With more than 80% of the world’s imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy,” Lloyd’s said.
The possibility of such a geopolitical conflict was a systemic – or low likelihood but high impact – risk, Lloyd’s said.
Lloyd’s said it has also researched other potential systemic risks in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, including cyber attacks and extreme weather events.
