“Fed officials are unlikely to pause rate cuts before reaching 4% policy rates absent a pickup in inflation,” Citi said in a note. “Whether rate cuts slow at that point will depend on whether or not the labor market – which is continuing to soften – stabilizes.”
The Fed appears to be mapping out a two-phase framework for rate cuts as part of a path toward bringing rates down to the neutral rate — one that neither boosts nor drags on economic growth.
“In the first phase, policy rates that are clearly in restrictive territory need to be reduced to neutral as the Fed desires no further loosening of the labor market.” Citi said. “The second phase would involve moving more slowly once rates are in the “plausible range” for neutral,” it added.
After starting its rate-cut cycle in September, the Fed is two cuts deep into the cycle, with rates still widely estimated to be in restrictive territory suggesting further room to ease.
“A tightening of labor markets and/or a sustained pickup in inflation,” would point to rates above neutral. But neither looks likely, it added.
Core inflation has been “somewhat stronger” over the last two months, Citi said, though believes that it is likely to slow again in November and December allowing the Fed to persist with ongoing rate cuts.
“In our base case, cooling inflation and rising unemployment will keep Fed officials cutting rates at a pace of at least 25bp per meeting until reaching 3%,” Citi added.
In the near term, the bar remains high for a pause at the Fed’s December meeting and would require an upside surprise in November jobs and inflation.
Looking further ahead, a pause is possible, however, if the unemployment rate stabilizes around current levels.
But this would be “contrary to our expectations,” Citi said, expecting the “unemployment rate to resume its transit higher in November.”
Source: Economy - investing.com
