The UK awakes on Saturday to a new era in its history. For 47 years, its relationship with the rest of the world has been defined by its membership of the EU. One group of voters will welcome the end of that phase as an opportunity for Britain to strike out on its own. Another will lament its passing. But Britain is exiting the EU. The debate over whether it leaves or remains is over.
The challenges now are twofold. One is to heal the rifts the Brexit process has caused, and the underlying socio-economic divisions that added fuel to the Leave vote. The second is to build a new framework of ties with the EU and wider world that safeguards the unity, prosperity and security of the UK union. It is on these two tasks that the success of Boris Johnson’s government — and of the whole Brexit project — will be judged.
The Conservatives have recognised that the 2016 vote to leave the EU was not just a thumbs-down to the now 27-nation bloc. It was also a protest vote by “left behind” communities who had for years felt neglected and ignored. Mr Johnson won election on his promise to complete Brexit and to “level up” other regions with prosperous London and south-east England. The government has signalled investment in infrastructure and a more interventionist economic approach. It must now spell out a comprehensive strategy to realise its vision.
The paradox is that leaving the EU will complicate its task. The government is seeking to rebuild social cohesion even as it confronts the biggest shake-up of the country’s economic and constitutional arrangements for half a century. The vision of a buccaneering, free-trading, lightly-regulated UK championed by Brexit’s intellectual fathers must be squared with the more state-led stance the government has flagged.
Whatever version of Brexit the country pursues, moreover, will leave the economy smaller than had it remained in the EU. By rejecting single market or customs union membership and opting only for a free trade agreement, Mr Johnson has chosen the hardest, most economically harmful form of departure. Yet beyond that, more than three years after the EU referendum, the government has yet to define what the Brexit it has chosen will really mean.
It needs to start doing so — and fast. It should set out goals for where it believes the country should be in 2025 or 2030, and use those to frame its negotiations on future relations with the EU. Decisions made in the next six months of talks will shape the country’s economic outlook for decades.
One advantage Mr Johnson enjoys over his predecessor Theresa May is that he has a stable majority. There is little point trying to “level up” UK regions while pursuing divergence from EU standards that would hobble industries that are vital to regional economies. It makes no sense to pursue a bare-bones trade deal with Britain’s largest and nearest trading partner — the EU — in the hope of reaping benefits from a vaunted agreement with the US that may prove illusory. Mr Johnson must finally confront the awkward choices and trade-offs involved in Brexit and use his communication skills to sell them to his own party — and the public.
Any rational assessment of the UK’s interests must ultimately conclude that it should continue to sit as close as possible to Europe. Existing security co-operation and intelligence-sharing need to be preserved. EU member states should recognise, for their part, the benefits of continued partnership with Britain, and ensure this is reflected in the negotiating mandate they will shortly present to Brussels.
The UK must flesh out, too, what its concept of “Global Britain” means in practice. Though outside the EU, there is no reason why it should not maintain close relations with Paris and Berlin. Together with other medium-sized powers, such as Canada, it could be a convener of a “coalition of the willing” to defend common interests such as liberal democracy and the multilateral order, and help it to avoid being squeezed between China and the US.
For Britain, the past three years have been the most politically turbulent and rancorous for decades. Brexit has shaken the foundations of British democracy, strained the UK union, and laid bare a level of discontent across large parts of the nation that had long been under-appreciated. The tempestuous EU departure is finally complete. Now the real hard work must start.
Source: Economy - ft.com
