The first few contests in the Democratic presidential primary race have been fought in states that are small and somewhat quirky economically. There aren’t many states where voters care as much about ethanol subsidies as they do in Iowa, or where culinary unions wield as much power as in Nevada.
All of that will change on Super Tuesday. The 14 states voting make up nearly 40 percent of the population, and an even larger share of gross domestic product, with all the demographic and economic diversity those numbers suggest.
Tuesday’s results, therefore, could give us our first hard data on how the economy is affecting the Democratic race. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has moved to the front of the pack by emphasizing his plans to tackle income inequality — will that message resonate more in places where more families are struggling? Michael R. Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor, has stressed his management experience — will that play better in wealthier, more highly educated places?
Fourteen states are a lot to keep track of. So we’ve broken them into four categories based on their long-term economic strength (represented in the chart above by their median household income) and their more recent performance (their job growth since the start of the Trump administration).
No such grouping is perfect, of course. And states are diverse places — even the richest ones have pockets of poverty. Still, if you keep these groups in mind as the results roll in, you should get a sense of how economic issues are playing out in the primary campaign.
Group 1: Going Gray
Super Tuesday states: Maine, Vermont
Similar states: Kentucky, Pennsylvania, West Virginia
There isn’t much doubt about who will win Vermont, Mr. Sanders’s home state. But these states, characterized by relatively low incomes and slow job growth, nonetheless reflect challenges facing a substantial part of the country.
At a time when economic activity is increasingly concentrated in cities, these states are predominantly rural: Maine and Vermont ranked first and second in the 2010 census in the share of their populations living outside metropolitan areas. At a time when the aging population is a concern nationwide because of rising health care costs and shrinking labor forces, these states are already old: 20.6 percent Mainers were 65 or older in 2019, a slightly higher share even than in Florida. (Vermont came in fourth at 19.4 percent.) And at a time when slowing immigration and low birthrates are limiting population growth, these states are already growing slowly or, in the case of Vermont, shrinking.
Maine and Vermont are (nearly) neighbors, but these issues transcend geography. Indeed, in terms of their economies, these states share less in common with the rest of New England than with Appalachian states like West Virginia and Kentucky and with Midwestern industrial states like Ohio and Wisconsin.
Share of the population
living in rural areas
Share of the population
65 or older
Me.
Me.
21
%
61
%
Vt.
Fla.
21
61
W.Va.
W.Va.
20
51
Miss.
Vt.
19
51
Mont.
Hawaii
19
44
Ark.
Del.
19
44
S.D.
Mont.
19
43
Ky.
Pa.
18
42
18
Ala.
N.H.
41
N.D.
S.C.
18
40
N.H.
Ore.
18
40
Iowa
Ariz.
18
36
Wyo.
N.M.
18
35
Alaska
R.I.
17
34
N.C.
Conn.
17
34
Okla.
Mich.
17
34
S.C.
Iowa
17
34
Super
Tuesday
states
in bold
Tenn.
Ohio
17
34
Wis.
Ark.
17
30
Mo.
Ala.
17
30
Idaho
Wis.
17
29
Ind.
Mo.
17
28
Neb.
S.D.
17
27
La.
Wyo.
17
27
Minn.
Mass.
17
27
Kan.
N.Y.
16
26
Mich.
Tenn.
16
25
Ga.
N.C.
16
25
Va.
Ky.
16
25
N.M.
N.J.
16
23
Ohio
Kan.
16
22
Pa.
Miss.
16
21
Ore.
Idaho
16
19
Del.
Minn.
16
17
Wash.
Neb.
16
16
Tex.
Okla.
16
15
Colo.
Ind.
16
14
Md.
Nev.
16
13
N.Y.
Ill.
16
12
Conn.
Va.
16
12
Ill.
Wash.
16
12
Ariz.
Md.
15
10
Utah
N.D.
15
9
R.I.
La.
15
9
Fla.
Calif.
14
9
Hawaii
Colo.
14
8
Mass.
Ga.
14
8
Nev.
Tex.
13
6
N.J.
D.C
12
5
Calif.
Alaska
12
5
D.C
Utah
11
0
Share of the population
living in rural areas
Share of the population
65 or older
Maine
21
%
Maine
61
%
Florida
21
Vermont
61
West Virginia
20
West Virginia
51
Vermont
19
Mississippi
51
Hawaii
19
Montana
44
Delaware
19
Arkansas
44
Montana
19
South Dakota
43
Pennsylvania
18
Kentucky
42
New Hampshire
18
Alabama
41
South Carolina
18
North Dakota
40
Oregon
18
New Hampshire
40
Arizona
18
Iowa
36
New Mexico
18
Wyoming
35
Rhode Island
17
Alaska
34
Connecticut
17
North Carolina
34
Michigan
17
Oklahoma
34
Iowa
17
South Carolina
34
Super
Tuesday
states
in bold
Ohio
17
Tennessee
34
Arkansas
17
Wisconsin
30
Alabama
17
Missouri
30
Wisconsin
17
Idaho
29
Missouri
17
Indiana
28
South Dakota
17
Nebraska
27
Wyoming
17
Louisiana
27
Massachusetts
17
Minnesota
27
New York
16
Kansas
26
Tennessee
16
Michigan
25
North Carolina
16
Georgia
25
Kentucky
16
Virginia
25
New Jersey
16
New Mexico
23
Kansas
16
Ohio
22
Mississippi
16
Pennsylvania
21
Idaho
16
Oregon
19
Minnesota
16
Delaware
17
Nebraska
16
Washington
16
Oklahoma
16
Texas
15
Indiana
16
Colorado
14
Nevada
16
Maryland
13
Illinois
16
New York
12
Virginia
16
Connecticut
12
Washington
16
Illinois
12
Maryland
15
Arizona
10
North Dakota
15
Utah
9
Louisiana
15
Rhode Island
9
California
14
Florida
9
Colorado
14
Hawaii
8
Georgia
14
Massachusetts
8
Texas
13
Nevada
6
D.C.
12
New Jersey
5
Alaska
12
California
5
Utah
11
D.C.
0
Group 2: The Rising Sun Belt
Super Tuesday states: Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Similar states: New Mexico, South Carolina
These states are no richer, on average, than the states in the group above. But unlike Maine and Vermont, they have had relatively robust job growth in recent years, and their economic growth has been stronger as well.
These states are mostly in the South and Southwest, and while they are hardly homogeneous, they share certain advantages including a low cost of living and growing (and comparatively youthful) populations.
But they also face challenges, including low rates of college education (North Carolina is an exception) and relatively heavy exposure to the manufacturing sector, which has been struggling recently. And while Raleigh, Charlotte and Nashville are magnets for young graduates and the companies that want to employ them, few other cities in this group fit that description. That raises questions about how well positioned these states are to keep growing in an increasingly technology-driven economy.
Share of jobs that are
goods producing
Share of the population
living in poverty
20
%
22
%
Miss.
Ind.
N.M.
19
Wis.
20
La.
19
Iowa
19
W.Va.
Mich.
18
18
17
18
Ark.
Ala.
Ky.
17
Wyo.
18
Ala.
17
Ky.
18
16
17
D.C
Ark.
Okla.
Miss.
16
17
Tenn.
15
N.D.
17
S.C.
Ohio
15
17
Tex.
15
S.C.
17
Ga.
14
Kan.
16
Mich.
Idaho
14
16
N.C.
Utah
14
16
Ariz.
14
La.
16
Ohio
14
Ore.
16
N.Y.
Okla.
14
16
Fla.
Tenn.
14
16
Mo.
N.C.
13
16
Ind.
S.D.
13
16
S.D.
13
Minn.
15
Mont.
W.Va.
13
15
Nev.
Neb.
13
15
R.I.
13
Tex.
15
Calif.
13
Wash.
15
Ore.
13
Vt.
14
Del.
12
N.H.
14
Pa.
Pa.
12
14
Ill.
12
Mo.
14
Kan.
Ga.
12
14
Idaho
12
Ill.
13
Me.
12
Me.
13
Iowa
Conn.
11
13
Wyo.
11
Calif.
13
Wis.
11
Colo.
13
Neb.
11
Alaska
13
Vt.
11
R.I.
12
Alaska
Ariz.
11
12
Va.
Mont.
11
12
N.D.
N.M.
11
12
Conn.
10
Nev.
12
Wash.
Va.
10
11
Mass.
Mass.
10
11
Minn.
Del.
10
11
Colo.
Fla.
10
10
N.J.
10
Md.
10
Utah
N.J.
9
10
Md.
N.Y.
9
9
Hawaii
9
Hawaii
8
N.H.
8
D.C
2
Share of jobs that are
goods producing
Share of the population
living in poverty
Mississippi
20
%
Indiana
22
%
New Mexico
19
Wisconsin
20
Louisiana
19
Iowa
19
West Virginia
18
Michigan
18
Arkansas
17
Alabama
18
Kentucky
17
Wyoming
18
Alabama
17
Kentucky
18
D.C.
16
Arkansas
17
Oklahoma
16
Mississippi
17
Tennessee
15
North Dakota
17
South Carolina
15
Ohio
17
Texas
15
South Carolina
17
Georgia
14
Kansas
16
Michigan
14
Idaho
16
North Carolina
14
Utah
16
Arizona
14
Louisiana
16
Ohio
14
Oregon
16
New York
14
Oklahoma
16
Florida
14
Tennessee
16
Missouri
13
North Carolina
16
Indiana
13
South Dakota
16
South Dakota
13
Minnesota
15
Montana
13
West Virginia
15
Nevada
13
Nebraska
15
Rhode Island
13
Texas
15
California
13
Washington
15
Oregon
13
Vermont
14
Delaware
12
New Hampshire
14
Pennsylvania
12
Pennsylvania
14
Illinois
12
Missouri
14
Kansas
12
Georgia
14
Idaho
12
Illinois
13
Maine
12
Maine
13
Iowa
11
Connecticut
13
Wyoming
11
California
13
Wisconsin
11
Colorado
13
Nebraska
11
Alaska
13
Vermont
11
Rhode Island
12
Alaska
11
Arizona
12
Virginia
11
Montana
12
North Dakota
11
New Mexico
12
Connecticut
10
Nevada
12
Washington
10
Virginia
11
Massachusetts
10
Massachusetts
11
Minnesota
10
Delaware
11
Colorado
10
Florida
10
New Jersey
10
Maryland
10
Utah
9
New Jersey
10
Maryland
9
New York
9
Hawaii
9
Hawaii
8
New Hampshire
8
D.C.
2
Group 3: Brain Power
Super Tuesday states: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Virginia
Similar states: Illinois, Maryland, New York
This group includes many East Coast states that are traditionally economic powerhouses — but that haven’t looked much like ones in recent years.
Over the long term, these states have a lot going for them. They are generally affluent and well educated, have world-renowned hospitals and universities and contain some of the country’s largest and most vibrant urban areas. They have diversified economies that don’t rely too heavily on manufacturing. Those assets helped them weather the last recession better than many other states.
But job growth in this group has been relatively weak under Mr. Trump, and their broader economic growth has also lagged. High living costs are also taking a toll: Most of the states in this group, including the three voting on Tuesday, have seen a net outflow of residents to the rest of the country in recent years, although immigration has allowed their overall populations to keep growing.
Share of the population
with a college degree
Net domestic migration
as share of the population
D.C
+6.8
%
60
%
Nev.
Mass.
45
Idaho
+6.2
Colo.
+5.2
42
S.C.
Md.
41
Ariz.
+5.1
N.J.
+4.5
41
Ore.
Conn.
+4.3
40
Fla.
Va.
39
Colo.
+4.0
+3.7
Vt.
39
Wash.
N.Y.
37
N.C.
+3.2
+3.2
N.H.
37
Mont.
Minn.
37
Del.
+2.8
Wash.
+2.7
37
Tenn.
+2.6
Ill.
35
Utah
Utah
+2.2
35
Tex.
+2.0
R.I.
Ga.
34
Calif.
Me.
34
+1.4
Ore.
N.H.
+0.9
34
Kan.
34
D.C
+0.6
Hawaii
S.D.
+0.4
34
Neb.
Ark.
+0.4
32
N.C.
Ala.
32
+0.3
0.0
Minn.
Ga.
32
Okla.
–0.2
%
Pa.
32
Ky.
–0.2
Mont.
32
–0.2
Ind.
Me.
32
–0.3
Mo.
Del.
31
–0.6
Wis.
Fla.
30
–0.7
Iowa
Tex.
30
–0.8
Ohio
Alaska
30
–0.8
Neb.
Wis.
30
Vt.
–1.0
Ariz.
30
–1.0
Va.
N.D.
30
–1.0
N.D.
Mich.
30
–1.2
Mich.
Mo.
30
–1.3
Pa.
S.D.
29
N.M.
–1.6
Iowa
29
–1.8
Miss.
Ohio
29
–1.8
Calif.
S.C.
28
–1.8
R.I.
N.M.
28
Mass.
–2.0
Idaho
28
–2.1
Md.
Tenn.
27
–2.2
W.Va.
Ind.
27
La.
–2.2
Wyo.
27
–2.4
Kan.
Okla.
26
Wyo.
–3.2
Ala.
26
N.J.
–3.3
Nev.
25
–3.6
Conn.
Ky.
25
Hawaii
–4.2
La.
24
Ill.
–4.3
Ark.
23
–4.6
N.Y.
Miss.
23
–6.0
Alaska
W.Va.
21
Share of the population with a
college degree
Net domestic migration
as share of the population
D.C.
60
%
Nevada
+6.8
%
Massachusetts
45
Idaho
+6.2
Colorado
42
South Carolina
+5.2
Maryland
41
Arizona
+5.1
New Jersey
41
Oregon
+4.5
Connecticut
40
Florida
+4.3
Virginia
39
Colorado
+4.0
Vermont
39
Washington
+3.7
New York
37
North Carolina
+3.2
New Hampshire
37
Montana
+3.2
Minnesota
37
Delaware
+2.8
Washington
37
Tennessee
+2.7
Illinois
35
Utah
+2.6
+2.2
Utah
35
Texas
+2.0
Rhode Island
34
Georgia
+1.4
California
34
Maine
+0.9
Oregon
34
New Hampshire
+0.6
Kansas
34
D.C.
+0.4
Hawaii
34
South Dakota
+0.4
Nebraska
32
Arkansas
+0.3
North Carolina
32
Alabama
0.0
Minnesota
Georgia
32
–0.2
%
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
32
–0.2
Kentucky
Montana
32
–0.2
Indiana
Maine
32
–0.3
Missouri
Delaware
31
–0.6
Wisconsin
Florida
30
–0.7
Iowa
Texas
30
–0.8
Ohio
Alaska
30
–0.8
Nebraska
Wisconsin
30
–1.0
Vermont
Arizona
30
–1.0
Virginia
North Dakota
30
–1.0
North Dakota
Michigan
30
–1.2
Michigan
Missouri
30
–1.3
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
29
–1.6
New Mexico
Iowa
29
–1.8
Mississippi
Ohio
29
–1.8
California
South Carolina
28
–1.8
Rhode Island
New Mexico
28
–2.0
Massachusetts
Idaho
28
–2.1
Maryland
Tennessee
27
–2.2
West Virginia
Indiana
27
–2.2
Louisiana
Wyoming
27
–2.4
Kansas
Oklahoma
26
–3.2
Wyoming
Alabama
26
–3.3
New Jersey
Nevada
25
–3.6
Connecticut
Kentucky
25
–4.2
Hawaii
Louisiana
24
–4.3
Illinois
Arkansas
23
–4.6
New York
Mississippi
23
–6.0
Alaska
West Virginia
21
Group 4: Modern Miracles
Super Tuesday states: California, Colorado, Texas, Utah
Similar states: Arizona, Oregon, Washington
These states have been the winners in the 21st-century economy. They are already affluent, yet are still adding jobs at an impressive clip, with many of the jobs coming in high-paying, fast-growing sectors like technology and health care. These states for the most part have young, diverse and fast-growing populations, with a large number of immigrants. They are the beneficiaries of a virtuous circle: Their thriving cities attract young college graduates and skilled workers, which attract the companies that want to employ them, which attract more workers drawn by job opportunities.
But that kind of success brings challenges. California’s cities are dealing with a sky-high cost of living, nightmarish traffic jams and a full-blown housing crisis, leading some residents to abandon the state. Seattle, Denver and Salt Lake City are dealing with similar problems, albeit on a different scale.
Outside their big metropolitan areas, these states are dealing with many of the same issues — aging populations, lackluster job growth — that states in other categories are facing. Elected officials, policymakers and nonprofit groups are struggling to ensure that their states’ economic success isn’t leaving lower-income areas and residents behind.
Jobs in information sector
as share of all jobs
Change in population
+16.6
%
Wash.
3.9
%
D.C
+15.5
Calif.
3.2
Utah
N.Y.
2.8
Tex.
+14.9
Colo.
Colo.
2.7
+14.1
Utah
Nev.
+14.0
2.5
Ga.
Fla.
+14.0
2.5
Mass.
Idaho
+13.8
2.5
D.C
Ariz.
+13.6
2.4
Conn.
N.D.
1.9
+12.9
+12.9
N.H.
1.8
Wash.
+11.1
Ore.
1.8
S.C.
+9.9
N.C.
1.8
Ore.
Mo.
1.7
N.C.
+9.5
Neb.
Ga.
1.7
+9.3
Alaska
1.7
S.D.
+8.4
Va.
1.7
Del.
+8.2
N.J.
1.7
Mont.
+7.9
Minn.
1.7
Tenn.
+7.5
Ariz.
1.7
Va.
+6.4
Tex.
1.6
Minn.
+6.2
Wis.
1.6
Calif.
+5.9
Fla.
1.6
Neb.
+5.7
Ill.
1.5
Okla.
+5.2
Tenn.
Mass.
1.5
+5.0
N.D.
Md.
1.4
+4.4
Pa.
1.4
Hawaii
+3.8
N.M.
1.4
Ind.
+3.7
Iowa
1.4
Iowa
+3.4
Hawaii
1.4
Ark.
+3.3
Vt.
1.4
N.H.
+3.3
1.3
+2.7
Md.
Ky.
1.3
+2.5
Kan.
Wyo.
1.3
+2.5
Mont.
Alaska
S.C.
1.3
Ala.
+2.5
S.D.
1.3
Mo.
+2.4
Ohio
1.3
Wis.
+2.3
Mich.
1.3
La.
+2.3
Wyo.
1.3
Kan.
+1.9
Idaho
1.2
N.M.
+1.6
R.I.
1.2
Ohio
+1.3
Okla.
1.2
Me.
+1.2
Me.
1.2
Mich.
+1.1
La.
1.2
N.J.
+0.9
Ky.
Pa.
1.1
+0.7
W.Va.
R.I.
1.1
+0.5
Nev.
N.Y.
1.1
+0.3
Ala.
Miss.
1.0
+0.2
Miss.
Vt.
1.0
–0.3
%
Ind.
Conn.
0.9
–0.4
Del.
0.9
–1.3
Ill.
Ark.
0.9
–3.3
W.Va.
Jobs in information sector
as share of all jobs
Change in population
Washington
3.9
%
D.C.
+16.6
%
California
3.2
Utah
+15.5
New York
2.8
Texas
+14.9
Colorado
2.7
Colorado
+14.1
Utah
2.5
Nevada
+14.0
Georgia
2.5
Florida
+14.0
Massachusetts
2.5
Idaho
+13.8
D.C.
2.4
Arizona
+13.6
Connecticut
1.9
North Dakota
+12.9
New Hampshire
1.8
Washington
+12.9
Oregon
1.8
South Carolina
+11.1
North Carolina
1.8
Oregon
+9.9
Missouri
1.7
North Carolina
+9.5
Nebraska
1.7
Georgia
+9.3
Alaska
1.7
South Dakota
+8.4
Virginia
1.7
Delaware
+8.2
New Jersey
1.7
Montana
+7.9
Minnesota
1.7
Tennessee
+7.5
Arizona
1.7
Virginia
+6.4
Texas
1.6
Minnesota
+6.2
Wisconsin
1.6
California
+5.9
Florida
1.6
Nebraska
+5.7
Illinois
1.5
Oklahoma
+5.2
Tennessee
1.5
Massachusetts
+5.0
North Dakota
1.4
Maryland
+4.4
Pennsylvania
1.4
Hawaii
+3.8
New Mexico
1.4
Indiana
+3.7
Iowa
1.4
Iowa
+3.4
Hawaii
1.4
Arkansas
+3.3
Vermont
1.4
New Hampshire
+3.3
Maryland
1.3
Kentucky
+2.7
Kansas
1.3
Wyoming
+2.5
Montana
1.3
Alaska
+2.5
South Carolina
1.3
Alabama
+2.5
South Dakota
1.3
Missouri
+2.4
Ohio
1.3
Wisconsin
+2.3
Michigan
1.3
Louisiana
+2.3
Wyoming
1.3
Kansas
+1.9
Idaho
1.2
New Mexico
+1.6
Rhode Island
1.2
Ohio
+1.3
Oklahoma
1.2
Maine
+1.2
Maine
1.2
Michigan
+1.1
Louisiana
1.2
New Jersey
+0.9
Kentucky
1.1
Pennsylvania
+0.7
West Virginia
1.1
Rhode Island
+0.5
Nevada
1.1
New York
+0.3
Alabama
1.0
Mississippi
+0.2
Mississippi
1.0
–0.3
%
Vermont
Indiana
0.9
–0.4
Connecticut
Delaware
0.9
–1.3
Illinois
Arkansas
0.9
–3.3
West Virginia
Source: Economy - nytimes.com
