China’s coronavirus-related slowdown has wiped out the equivalent of the UK’s carbon emissions over six months, according to a new analysis that underscores the effect of the outbreak on the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by an estimated 200m tonnes in the four weeks to March 1, about the same as the Netherlands or Ukraine emit per year, said the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finnish research group. The outbreak was “unprecedented in its impact on economic activity and emissions”, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Crea.
Coal consumption at Chinese power plants and the utilisation of oil refining capacity were both down more than a third in the four weeks to March 1, compared with the same period a year ago, as large parts of China’s industrial base ground to a halt as the virus spread.
Yet since the Communist party leadership ordered a return to work last week, state-dominated heavy industry has ramped up output, with steel output, oil extraction and coal consumption in industrial hubs closing on similar levels to previous years.
Prior to the virus outbreak, researchers were predicting that global carbon emissions would be flat or up slightly this year. Emissions from burning fossil fuels grew about 0.6 per cent in 2019, according to research published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, down from a rise of 2.1 per cent in 2018.
A lowering of emissions would ordinarily be welcomed by those seeking to meet the terms of the Paris climate accord. But economists pointed out that the virus response could inhibit the long-term transition to a low-carbon economy.
“Carbon dioxide emissions have already gone down in China, but that is not the way we want to do it,” said Nicholas Stern, an energy economist.
“World growth could be hit hard this year, with [GDP growth] rates in the range of 0-2 per cent if the virus continues to spread quickly as it appears to be doing,” he said.
Global carbon emissions also dropped in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, falling 1.3 per cent in 2009. Yet within a year these gains had largely been undone.
Beijing’s Rmb4tn stimulus package was a big contributor to a 10 per cent rise in the country’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, with construction estimated to account for about 70 per cent of that rise.
The Chinese government has so far resisted launching a similar stimulus package to combat the mounting economic fallout of the outbreak, instead releasing ad hoc measures such as extending credit to struggling small businesses.
Some economists predict an infrastructure spending splurge will soon become unavoidable. In January and February, Chinese provinces issued a record level of debt through the sale of local government bonds as they prepare to build roads, hospitals and subways to shore up growth.
Mr Myllyvirta said: “A return to the old economic stimulus playbook could see emissions increase over the next years as a result, unless clean energy and other green investment is prioritised.”
The slowdown in China has already led to an improvement in air quality in big cities. Levels of fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, have fallen 36 per cent in Shanghai, compared with the same period a year ago.
Levels of nitrogen dioxide have fallen 30-50 per cent across all of China’s big cities due to the reduction in traffic, according to Crea data.
The Paris accord, signed by almost 200 countries, calls for sharp cuts to global carbon emissions in order to limit global warming to well below the 2C level that scientists say is crucial to avoid damaging climate change.
The number of people infected globally by the coronavirus has climbed to more than 93,000, while the death toll is almost 3,200.
