Aurelia Butler

He did not elaborate on the policy details. Pan told CCTV the number of high-risk small and medium-sized banks in China had almost halved from its peak, and the cost burden of local government debt had also dropped significantly. More

(Reuters) – South Africa’s Reserve Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years – by 25 basis points to 8.00% – on Sept. 19, according to a Reuters poll of economists who had similar views to a poll taken last month.A repo rate cut would follow a period of tight monetary policy in Africa’s second-largest economy aimed at reducing inflation, which slowed to 5.1% in June.That expected rate reduction would come one day after the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to start its cutting cycle after holding the federal funds rate steady over the past year. The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee was split at the July meeting for the first time since September 2023, with four members preferring to keep rates on hold and two favouring a 25-basis-point cut.Nineteen of 26 economists surveyed between Aug. 6-14 said the SARB will trim its main repo rate by 25 bps to 8.00% on Sept. 19. A majority also said it will cut again by the same amount in November to 7.75%.Two more 25-basis-point cuts are expected in the first quarter of nest year – with meetings due in January and March – according to median forecasts from the poll, followed by another in May before the Bank pauses at 7.25% for the remainder of the year. Only one further cut to 7.00% is expected in 2026, based on a smaller sample of forecasters.David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note that the economic recovery in South Africa is operating at two speeds, with retail sales and manufacturing on the up but the important mining sector stuck in a weak spot.”Nonetheless, with easing electricity shortages and interest rate cuts on the way, the economy is finally turning a corner. We expect further modest growth over the rest of this year and in 2025,” he added. Power shortages from the state utility have crimped growth in Africa’s most industrialized nation in recent years, making planning and job creation difficult for small businesses.Economic growth in South Africa is expected to be 0.9% this year and 1.6% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point downward revision for both years compared with the July survey.South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 33.5% in the second quarter of 2024 from 32.9% in the first quarter.Inflation was expected to slow to an average of 4.9% this year and 4.5% in 2025, from 5.1% in June, similar to the previous poll. Among major central banks, the European Central Bank is expected to cut its deposit rate twice more this year after a reduction in June, in both September and December.The SARB’s southwestern Africa peer in Namibia cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, while Zambia’s central bank held rates steady due to the inflationary impact on the economy from drought.    (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Trent Anderson may drive for Uber (NYSE:UBER) in Tampa, Florida, but his daydreams take him to places like picturesque Malaga, a city in the south of Spain.”It’s got the beach. It’s got the mountains. It has a big-city feel, but it’s not that big,” said Anderson, 49. The dream was inspired by a recent trip through Portugal and Spain in March which gave travelers a taste of daily life across the Atlantic. It was organized by Expatsi, a firm which helps Americans intrigued by the idea of living abroad.”When we started thinking about moving abroad ourselves, we built all these massive spreadsheets of data about different countries,” said Jen Barnett, an Alabama native who founded Expatsi with her husband Brett Andrews.Figuring other people might be able to use that information, the couple, who recently moved to Merida in Mexico’s Yucatan, launched the business to match expat wannabes with their dream destinations.On their website, a 20-question survey starts with “Why do you want to move abroad?”Relocating overseas is a big leap, but many have already done it: At least 5.4 million Americans lived abroad in 2023, according to the Association of Americans Resident Overseas.The strong U.S. dollar is a very good incentive. Since most Americans are far behind on retirement savings, moving to a place with much lower living costs immediately boosts their standard of living.Costa Rica is the best place to retire, according to International Living magazine’s 2024 Global Retirement Index ranking locales based on various criteria. Portugal, Mexico, Panama and Spain round out the top five.For those who want a trial run, an Expatsi trip to Spain and Portugal is set for September, followed by France and Italy in October, and Mexico on the horizon.Here are some tips for those who are scouting abroad for their retirement years:DO NOT BE A TOURISTStay in homes on Airbnb or VRBO in residential neighborhoods, Barnett suggested. Staying in hotels on guided vacations with quick visits to tourist hotspots give no idea about what it is like to live in a place.”What is it like day-to-day, going to the grocery store or pharmacy, visiting a clinic, taking public transportation?” Anderson said. “It’s not about the museum.”RENTFantasizing about owning a place abroad is easy, but if the experience falls short you could be in a jam because it is much harder to sell a home than to buy one, Barnett said. It can tie up your assets and trigger unforeseen tax consequences.That is why Barnett rents in Merida with her husband. They could easily move elsewhere.DIG INTO RULES AND REGULATIONSFiguring out the legal and financial ramifications of retiring abroad can take some fun out of a vacation, but it helps to make sure what you are getting into.The Internal Revenue Service requires expats to file tax returns on income, gifts and inheritance in the same way as if they are living in the United States. Check out Publication 54, Uncle Sam’s tax guide for Americans living abroad, here.Visas for work, study or retirement can vary widely for each country. ‘Golden Visa (NYSE:V)’ programs make pathways to residence and citizenship easier for investors.As for healthcare, a major concern for seniors, does your target country have universal coverage? Will you secure private coverage abroad or pay out of pocket?To address these tough questions early, Expatsi trips kick off with a half-day seminar featuring several local experts.”Just do it” if you are thinking about visiting a potential retirement location, said Anderson, the Uber driver, who is considering going on Expatsi’s trip to Mexico.”No amount of research can replace being there and experiencing it for yourself.” More

$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

According to BofA, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could choose the straightforward approach of delivering an overview of the current economic situation during the symposium, similar to his comments at the July FOMC meeting. An evolution in the language from July could imply that the committee is “very close” or “close” to a point where easing might occur.”A further signal could be if Powell is stronger in saying that the committee wants to avoid ‘unexpected weakness’ in the labor market, rather than simply responding to it after it occurs,” strategists note.In addition, Powell might reference the June Summary of Projections, indicating that the committee is likely to gradually remove policy accommodation to balance risks amid an uncertain economic outlook.The strategists believe that the beginning of the easing cycle could be seen as the Fed declaring victory over inflation, though this would not be stated explicitly. Instead, the focus may shift to preserving gains in the labor market. If 2022 was about “resolve” and 2023 about “data dependence,” then 2024 could be centered on “maintaining a solid labor market,” BofA points out.”After all, the Fed’s definition of achieving a soft landing is bringing inflation back to target without requiring a deterioration in labor market conditions,” the bank’s note states.“The battle on inflation isn’t entirely won, but the message could be that it’s been won enough where the emphasis now will be on preventing undesired weakness in the labor market.”In terms of market implications, the strategists said that the rates market likely anticipates the Fed signaling that the next move will be a rate cut.If Powell speaks, the market expects him to suggest that a rate cut could be appropriate at the next meeting, provided inflation continues to progress. However, the size and pace of any cuts will depend on incoming inflation and activity data.The market has largely priced in this outcome, so these signals are unlikely to be surprising. The strategists also believe the market does not expect Powell to explicitly push back against the possibility of a 50bps move.They caution that the risk lies in more hawkish Fed communications. If Powell does not indicate a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting or suggests that large-scale rate reductions are off the table, this could result in a significant bear or twist flattening of the UST curve.Regarding rate volatility, BofA expects lower gamma following the Jackson Hole event. Historical analysis suggests that rate volatility typically decreases after the symposium, particularly in the gamma space, but also in intermediate expiries.“The extension to intermediate expiries is likely to reflect less uncertainty around the policy trajectory,” strategists wrote.Finally, they do not anticipate much impact on the US dollar from the Jackson Hole discussions.The market is already pricing in four Fed rate cuts for this year, and the USD has been weakening, especially after the labor market data for July came in below expectations. Inflation has been gradually moving in the right direction, justifying the start of Fed easing, though not necessarily at the rapid pace the market is currently pricing in. More

The U.S. economic data parade continues Thursday, as investors seek clues on the likely pace of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve.Mild readings for U.S. inflation this week have largely cemented market certainty that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September for the first time in more than four years, but debate still rages over the size of the cut – the standard 25 basis points, or a more aggressive 50 bps.The estimated chance of a 50 bps cut fell to 36%, down from 50% just a day earlier, after Wednesday’s CPI release. It had risen to 71% at the start of this month in the wake of the surprisingly weak U.S. payrolls data.The data slate includes weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August, but the July retail sales release that will garner most attention as consumption accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic growth.This is expected to show monthly growth of 0.4%, a slight improvement from the prior month’s flat reading. The Fed has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range since last July, after hiking its policy rate by 525 basis points since 2022.U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, amid growing optimism that benign inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates next month. By 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the Dow futures contract was 100 points, or 0.3%, higher, S&P 500 futures climbed 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 52 points, or 0.3%.The main Wall Street indices closed higher Wednesday after the July consumer price index showed an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, the lowest since 2021. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 240 points, or 0.6%, while the broad-based S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite posted very small gains.The July retail sales data [see above] will be in the spotlight Thursday as investors look for evidence of the strength of the overall economy given easing inflation appears to offer the Federal Reserve an opportunity to cut interest rates in September.In the corporate sector, retail giant Walmart (NYSE:WMT) is set to release its earnings before the open, and will provide more clues over the strength of consumer spending.Additionally, Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) stock soared premarket after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) reported a new stake in the cosmetics company, while  Nike (NYSE:NKE) stock gained after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square revealed a position in the sports footwear retailer.Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) stock gained strongly in extended trading late Wednesday after the networking equipment giant reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and announced a restructuring plan.At 08:20 ET, Cisco shares were up over 6% in premarket trading.It reported revenue of $13.64 billion for the fourth quarter ended July 27, compared with an estimate of $13.54 billion. Its adjusted profit per share was 87 cents, compared with the estimate of 85 cents.Cisco also revealed plans for job cuts, saying it’s cutting 7% of its global workforce, expecting to incur a pretax charge of up to $1 billion for severance and other one-time termination benefits. The company also anticipates recognizing charges of about $700 million to $800 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025.”We delivered a strong close to fiscal 2024,” said Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco. “In our fourth quarter, we saw steady customer demand with order growth across the business as customers rely on Cisco to connect and protect all aspects of their organizations in the era of AI.”There is also a great deal of uncertainty over whether the Bank of England will reduce interest rates at its next meeting, after it kicked off a rate-cutting campaign earlier this month in a close-call decision.A deluge of earnings released earlier Thursday hasn’t really cleared the confusion.The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year, following on from an expansion of 0.7% in the first quarter, continuing the country’s cautious recession rebound.However, economic growth was flat in June, a slip from 0.4% growth in the prior month, while both industrial and manufacturing production fell sharply on an annual basis in the same month.Britain’s economy has grown slowly since the COVID-19 pandemic, expanding just 2.3% between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2024.Crude prices rose Thursday, supported by optimism that potential U.S. interest rate cuts will boost economic activity, although gains have been limited by a surprise rise in U.S. stockpiles. By 04:20 ET, the U.S. crude futures (WTI) climbed 0.3% to $77.19 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 0.43% to $79.97 a barrel.Risk sentiment has been on the rise of late as benign inflation data reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, likely boosting demand for crude from the world’s largest consumer.However, both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday and the gains this session have been limited by data showing U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week.U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, raising concerns about weaker demand ahead as the summer driving season draws to an end.  More