Aurelia Butler

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    in Economy

    July CPI print to confirm that inflation is slowing down: Wells Fargo

    Despite not yet fully returning to the Federal Reserve’s target, Wells Fargo anticipates the report will show significant progress.The bank predicts that the headline CPI will rise by 0.2% in July, maintaining the year-over-year rate at a three-year low of 3.0%.”The core CPI also looks set to advance 0.2% in July amid a rebound in some of the more volatile ‘super core’ components,” the analysts noted.They also expect the recent decline in shelter inflation to continue, alongside a reduction in prices for core goods. If these predictions hold, the 12-month change in core CPI would reach a fresh cycle low of 3.2%.Looking ahead, Wells Fargo forecasts continued subsidence in inflation.They highlight that labor costs are no longer a significant threat to the Fed’s 2% inflation target due to increased labor force growth and decreasing demand for workers.Additionally, weakening consumer demand is putting downward pressure on prices, particularly for discretionary items, driving inflation back to pre-pandemic levels.While core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is likely to remain around its current rate through year-end, Wells Fargo expects the annualized pace of inflation to align with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) target.Given the concerning labor market conditions, they anticipate the Fed will consider inflation close enough to target and may begin a rate-cutting cycle at its next meeting. More

  • 125 Shares199 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Ether ETFs struggle to attract consistent inflows – J.P. Morgan

    According to a report from J.P. Morgan, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization ended July at around $2.28 trillion, up 1% month-over-month and 42% year-to-date. This figure is nearly double its value from a year ago.While volumes improved, market cap trends varied across different tokens and crypto products. Bitcoin’s market cap grew to $1.28 trillion, reflecting a 3% MoM increase. In contrast, Ethereum’s market cap contracted by 6% MoM to $388 billion, largely due to net outflows from newly launched spot ETH ETFs in the U.S. Other major altcoins like Dogecoin and Cardano also saw price declines in July.”The total crypto market cap ended around $2.28 trillion, up 1% MoM, 42% YTD and nearly double its value of a year ago,” J.P. Morgan wrote. The report further states that trading volumes saw a modest rebound, with average daily volumes (ADV) increasing by 9% MoM. Bitcoin and Ethereum both saw double-digit volume jumps, with Bitcoin’s average daily volume up 18% and Ethereum’s up 23%. However, DeFi and NFT volumes kept dropping despite these gains.”TradingView estimates July average daily volume (ADV) associated with the total crypto market increased +9% MoM,” J.P. Morgan stated. “This sequential improvement represents the first rebound in volumes since 1Q24.”One of the key events in July was the launch of spot ETH ETFs in the U.S., which, despite initial enthusiasm, saw net redemptions totaling $484 million during the first seven trading days. The SEC’s approval of these ETFs and their subsequent performance highlighted the difficulties in attracting sustained inflows.J.P. Morgan explains, “We estimate the group of the nine U.S. spot Ether ETFs approved saw -$484 million of total net redemptions in July, which included seven trading days.”The report also pointed out that traditional finance (TradFi) asset managers are increasingly engaging in blockchain technology and tokenization projects. Hamilton Lane, for example, launched a fund on the Solana blockchain, and Goldman Sachs plans to launch three tokenization products by year-end.”More examples of tokenization projects only further supports the use case and utility of the technology,” J.P. Morgan noted.Bitcoin mining saw increased competition with the monthly average network hashrate rising 5% in July. However, profitability dipped to all-time lows, with miners earning an average of $46,000 per exahash (EH/s) in daily block reward revenue, the lowest on record.”The monthly average network hashrate increased 30 EH/s (5%) in July to 615 EH/s, marking the first month-over-month increase in mining competition/difficulty since the halving,” the report stated. More

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    in Economy

    Japan’s top currency diplomat says monitoring markets with sense of urgency

    “We’ve been cooperating with other countries, as well as the Bank of Japan and other government agencies,” Mimura said when asked about recent financial market routs at an event hosted by the Nikkei Business magazine.He also stressed that there have been no major changes in Japan’s economic fundamentals, saying that the Japanese economy is likely to recover modestly.When asked specifically about current foreign exchange rates, Mimura said he doesn’t have specific levels in mind. “We’re focused on volatility, as excessive volatility raises uncertainties for businesses,” he said.”It’s desirable for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting economic fundamentals,” he added.The yen has faced high volatility in recent weeks. It fell on Wednesday after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike, though it remained far above its 38-year low of 161.96 per dollar hit in early July. More

  • 163 Shares199 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin hasn’t yet lived up to its reputation as “digital gold,” says Citi

    However, unlike Bitcoin, much of Ethereum’s recent price action since the ETFs launched has been more influenced by equity market movements rather than ETF flows.Citi analysts pointed out that the recent market correction in risky assets shows once again that crypto currently provides limited diversification benefits. They added, “Crypto fundamentals are holding up overall, as stablecoins have avoided sharp outflows and hash rate has risen despite weaker price action.”Moreover, Citi argues that Bitcoin hasn’t yet lived up to its reputation as “digital gold,” stating, “Despite both gold and Bitcoin being limited supply, zero-coupon instruments, the original cryptocurrency does not exhibit gold’s ‘store of value’ properties.” They concluded that during the recent market correction, Bitcoin did not act as a safe haven, which confirms its current status as a risk asset.Through August 5, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows have totaled $19.1 billion. These flows have explained over 40% of the variance in weekly Bitcoin price action since the ETFs launched in January. In contrast, ETH ETFs have seen $460 million in net outflows in their first two weeks of trading. “The variance in price action between Bitcoin and Ethereum highlights differing investor behaviors and market reactions to these two leading cryptocurrencies. The initial ETH ETF flows have been negative, but the Bitcoin ETF launch also had a post-launch decline between days 4 and 12,” Citi pointed out.Despite the crypto selloff, certain fundamentals have held up well. Search interest in cryptocurrencies has risen, and stablecoins have not seen decent outflows. While Ethereum network activity slowed, Bitcoin activity remained relatively stable, though at low levels. “Hash rate remains volatile though has moved higher as of late,” Citi noted. Additionally, decentralized exchange volumes continue to rise compared to centralized volumes. More

  • 175 Shares179 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Australian Firm NYBlue Secures Over One Million Carats of Blue Zircon, Launches RWA Token

    Australian gemstone company NYBlue Pty Ltd has emerged as a key player working to redefine the global gemstone market. The company’s strategic venture involves a plan to secure control over the world’s blue zircon supply, a move that holds the potential to reshape the value dynamics of the global gemstone market. Previously this month, the company released its whitepaper, detailing its current pre-sale and subsequent public float of its ‘real world asset’ cryptocurrency, following its announcement of holdings of more than one million carats of the rare gemstone.NYBlue’s primary strategy lies in systematically increasing its current holdings, to continue acquiring all available Cambodian blue zircons, establishing control over the supply chain and potentially influencing the future value of these precious stones.Earlier today company representatives were interviewed on CryptoBanters’ Town Hall podcast, to announce the launch of their RWA token pre-sale which has garnered considerable interest from the crypto community since being announced earlier this year.A video released by NYBlue questions rhetorically “What would be a more appropriate display of affection, for your significant other; a piece of compressed, common, carbon, or instead something more ancient than Earth, exceedingly rare, and twice as brilliant as diamond? The Australian company NYBlue; is financed by Australian AgTech founder & former political advisor; Mitch Brownlie, who has recently discussed the project on various podcasts; often comparing the NYBlue project with a previous gemstone rally; when the African gemstone ‘tanzanite’ surged from obscurity, to reach parity with Diamond. Tanzanite Spot Price – An inspiration for NYBlue.NYBlue draws inspiration from the historical trajectory of the tanzanite market, where prices experienced a tenfold increase over three years. The company anticipates a similar trajectory for zircons, aligning its strategy with past successes to project a potential surge in value. NYBlue, has previously announced its plan to launch its gemstone-backed cryptocurrency codenamed ZIRC where each token is fully backed by and redeemable for a 1-carat blue zircon gemstone. This approach allows consumers to benefit from the rise of blue zircon without the risks of volatility associated with traditional cryptocurrencies. Owners of Zirc tokens will have the option to redeem their cryptocurrency for gemstones at any time, ensuring a stable, arbitrage-enforced peg between the two assets. NYBlue aims to acquire the majority of globally available gem-quality blue zircons, effectively positioning itself as a dominant force in the market. This approach is designed to exert influence over the supply chain, creating a ripple effect on the market value of blue zircons across the industry.NYBlue’s strategic initiative is not a short-term play; it is an ambitious endgame to secure a controlling stake in the multi-billion-dollar gemstone market. With a collection of gemstones valued at around $300m, NYBlue aspires to redefine the gemstone narrative on a global scale. This venture positions the company as a significant player, with the potential to impact the industry’s landscape for years to come.In their quest for dominance in the gemstone market, NYBlue has announced a new and highly disruptive initiative; the launch of a blockchain-backed cryptocurrency named ZIRC, with each unit of the blockchain being fully backed by; and redeemable for a 1 carat blue zircon gemstone. This innovative approach allows individuals to participate in the potential rally of blue zircon values, by offering exposure to the underlying commodity without the inherent risks associated with traditional highly volatile cryptocurrencies.Buyers have the option to redeem their ZIRC tokens for actual gemstones at any time, effectively eliminating the possibility of the token’s value dropping below the market price of the gemstone itself, providing consumers with a tangible and secure asset. This strategic integration of blockchain technology not only enhances transparency and security but also democratises access to the exclusive world of the international gemstone trade.NYBlue’s PreSale is now live on Zir.co.nzAbout Zirc Zirc offers a cryptocurrency fully backed by blue zircon gemstones. Each ZIRC token is redeemable for a 1-carat blue zircon, providing a stable and tangible asset. The platform aims to integrate blockchain technology to enhance transparency and security, making it accessible for individuals to participate in the gemstone market without the risks associated with traditional cryptocurrencies. Zirc’s approach democratizes access to blue zircons and offers a unique investment opportunity backed by real-world assets.ContactDirectorMitch BrownlieNYBlue Pty [email protected] article was originally published on Chainwire More

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    in Economy

    A pre-election policy response ‘would require a crisis atmosphere’: Piper Sandler

    In a note to clients Wednesday, the firm argues that “any kind of policy response before the election would require a crisis atmosphere.”The note emphasizes that while a downturn, especially a recession, could profoundly influence next year’s fiscal policy debate, the current economic conditions do not yet warrant immediate bipartisan action.Piper Sandler states: “Even if there is a broad consensus the economy is likely headed into recession, it’s hard to imagine a bipartisan policy response making its way through Congress before the election.”They highlight that both Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are unlikely to support pre-election voter checks, requiring more than just a stock market correction to provoke a congressional response.President Biden has actively pursued unilateral actions, though many have faced legal challenges. Piper Sandler analysts are skeptical about the available measures he can deploy without congressional support.They foresee that “if the economy does fall into recession over the next six months, it could have a big impact on next year’s agenda.”A key driver for next year’s fiscal package is the scheduled expiration of the Trump tax cuts. However, Piper Sandler says a recession could introduce new variables affecting the fiscal policy landscape.The firm’s note recalls the extension of the Bush tax cuts during President Obama’s term as a response to the great financial crisis, suggesting a recession could similarly raise the likelihood of a more stimulative economic policy response.Piper Sandler concludes that while Trump has proposed several new tax cuts, these would likely have a better chance of enactment if the economy enters a recession. More

  • 125 Shares139 Views

    in Economy

    Uganda cuts key rate as shilling recovery helps inflation outlook

    KAMPALA (Reuters) -Uganda’s central bank reduced its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 10.00% on Wednesday, saying a recovery in the shilling currency had led to an improvement in the inflation outlook.The shilling hit a record low in late February, but has risen by more than 6% against the U.S. dollar since then, meaning there is less risk that a recent rise in inflation will prove to be persistent.Inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year in July, still below the central bank’s 5% medium-term target but up from 2.8% in January.”The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) noted that … the adverse impact of the past external shocks has abated and there has been some progress in moderating risks of inflation persistence,” Central Bank Deputy Governor Michael Atingi-Ego told a news conference.”The inflation projection has been revised slightly downwards relative to the June 2024 forecast … largely due to a lesser depreciated shilling exchange rate.”Atingi-Ego attributed the recent uptick in inflation to sectors such as passenger transport, accommodation, sports and recreation.He said the Bank of Uganda expected inflation to continue rising moderately in the next four months due to seasonal factors, but to stabilise around the target of 5% by the first quarter of 2025.At the bank’s last monetary policy meeting in June it expected inflation to only stabilise around 5% in the second half of next year.Atingi-Ego noted there had been a pickup in Uganda’s economic growth, which averaged 6.7% in annual terms in the last two quarters of fiscal year 2023/24 compared with 5.3% growth in the previous two quarters.The bank’s growth forecast for the 2024/25 fiscal year that started in July remains unchanged, at between 6.0% and 6.5%.”It was appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness,” Atingi-Ego said. More