Aurelia Butler

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s new prime minister Keir Starmer pledged action to fix the country, not just words, on Friday, but warned the voters who handed him a massive electoral majority and those who voted against, that improvements would take time.Standing outside his new office and residence at Number 10 Downing Street, Starmer cut a serious figure, acknowledging the scale of the challenges that faced him after his party’s landslide victory in a parliamentary election ended 14 years of often tumultuous Conservative government.He was greeted by huge cheers and in turn took time before making his speech to shake hands with and hug aides and well-wishers who lined Downing Street.Standing behind a lectern, he said he understood that many Britons were disillusioned with politics after years of scandal and chaos under the Conservatives, who were roundly rejected in Thursday’s election, suffering a historical loss.”This lack of trust can only be healed by actions, not words. I know that,” he said.”Whether you voted Labour or not, in fact, especially if you did not, I say to you directly – My government will serve you. Politics can be a force for good. We will show that.”The centre-left Labour won a massive majority in the 650-seat parliament, prompting Rishi Sunak’s resignation on Friday morning. Starmer then went to meet King Charles and was formally named Prime Minister.”My government will fight every day until you believe again. From now on, you have a government unburdened by doctrine, guided only by the determination to serve your interest,” he said, underlining something he had repeated during the campaign – that he would put country first, party second.”To defy, quietly, those who have written our country off. You have given us a clear mandate, and we will use it to deliver change.” The election result has upended British politics. Labour won some 410 seats, an increase of 210, while the Conservatives, the western world’s most successful party, lost about 250 lawmakers, including a record number of senior ministers and former Prime Minister Liz Truss.Sunak’s Conservatives suffered the worst performance in the party’s long history as voters punished them for a cost of living crisis, failing public services and a series of scandals.”To the country I would like to say first and foremost I am sorry,” Sunak said in a final speech outside Downing Street, adding he would stay as Conservative leader until the party was ready to appoint his replacement. “I have given this job my all, but you have sent a clear signal that the government of the United Kingdom must change, and yours is the only judgment that matters. I have heard your anger, your disappointment and I take responsibility for this loss.” TOUGH ROAD AHEADDespite Starmer’s convincing victory, polls have suggested there is little enthusiasm for Starmer or his party. Thanks to the quirk of Britain’s first-past-the-post system and a low turnout, Labour’s triumph was achieved with fewer votes than it secured in 2017 and 2019 – the latter its worst result for 84 years. The pound and British stocks and government bonds rose marginally on Friday, but Starmer comes to power at a time when the country is facing a series of daunting challenges. Britain’s tax burden is set to hit its highest since just after World War Two, net debt is almost equivalent to annual economic output, living standards have fallen, and public services are creaking, especially the much cherished National Health Service which has been dogged by strikes. Some of Labour’s more ambitious plans, such as its flagship green spending pledges, have already been scaled back while Starmer has promised not to raise taxes for “working people”.Likewise, he has promised to scrap the Conservative’s controversial policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, but with migration a key electoral issue, he will be under pressure himself to find a way to stop tens of thousands of people arriving across the Channel from France on small boats.”I don’t promise you it will be easy,” Starmer said earlier at a victory rally. “Changing a country is not like flicking a switch. It’s hard work. Patient, determined, work, and we will have to get moving immediately.”Britain’s election result showed growth in support for the right-wing Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, echoing recent similar results in Europe where the far right have been surging.But, unlike France where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party made historic gains in an election last Sunday, overall the British public has plumped for a centre-left party to bring about change.Starmer has promised to improve relations with the European Union to resolve issues created by Britain’s split from the bloc. However, despite opposing Brexit, rejoining the EU is not on the table.He may also have to work with Trump if he wins November’s presidential election. Trump has already sent congratulations to Farage, via his social media platform Truth Social. While he has promised to bring change domestically, Starmer has vowed to continue London’s unequivocal support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. On many foreign issues, his policies are similar to Sunak’s. The election victory represents an incredible turnaround for Starmer and Labour, which critics and supporters said was facing an existential crisis just three years ago when it appeared to have lost its way after its 2019 drubbing.A series of Conservative scandals – most notably revelations of parties in Downing Street during COVID lockdowns – undermined then prime minister Boris Johnson and its commanding poll lead evaporated. More

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for May was revised sharply down to show 218,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 272,000.MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 E-minis were mostly unchangedBONDS: The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was down 3 basis points to 4.317% FOREX: The dollar index fell 0.18% at 104.97 COMMENTS: SCOTT WREN SENIOR GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, ST. LOUIS, MO”That was towards what the Fed wants to see. It was a favorable number that shows the economy is slowing down and wage growth was slowing a bit with unemployment ticking up. Wage growth was under 4%. The Fed wants to see it in the 3s.””It confirms a lot of the news we’ve seen lately that things are slowing down.” KEITH LERNER, CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, TRUIST ADVISORY SERVICES, ATLANTA”Our overall thesis for the economy right now is one that’s cooling but not weak. I think this report confirmed this but also I think it is the that 4% plus unemployment rate that will get the Fed’s attention and probably provides them flexibility likely to start reducing rates. We think it’s likely September.”PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK”What we are looking at is a labor market that’s still producing jobs and the pickup in unemployment, which that might be considered on the negative side, and is probably due to weakness in the private sector.””The key here is the fact that wages are cooling down and that makes this a respectable report as far as the markets are concerned.””In terms of the Fed, we had last week a bunch of macro news which was not that great and indicated that the economy is accelerating to the downside a little bit faster than previously thought.””So, this report puts the Fed in a comfortable spot and by that I mean if this continues next month, with no increases in hourly wages, then I think we’ll see a rate cut in September and another one in December.”BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“Manufacturing just can’t catch a break. Employment was flat and narrow with only 45.8% of manufacturing industries reporting job gains. Within construction, a bright-spot in this report, it was mostly non-residential specialty trade contractors that saw the gains. A worrying trend is the 18% increase over the last year of the number of people working part-time because that’s all they could find. It’s not all sunshine and happiness despite the nice headline numbers.”ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT. “It’s a mixed jobs report. The numbers are all over the place. The top line looked better than expected. The prior month was revised much lower. Then if you look at private payrolls that came in lower than expected and was revised lower.””You get a mixed picture as to what’s going on in the jobs market. Earnings were a little down and the average work week was unchanged.””The market is trying to digest this and it’s a very quiet market a day after a holiday and tomorrow is the weekend. I don’t think that offices are very heavily staffed so you don’t get much movement.””It’s somewhat of a positive for those that are looking for a rate cut. The numbers are indicating that economy is slowing which feeds into the ability to cut rates.””Overall it speaks to a rate cut coming this year and that’s why you’re starting to see futures tick up a little higher and treasury yields tick lower.”EMILY BOWERSOCK HILL, CEO, BOWERSOCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LAWRENCE, KANSAS “I would say it’s a relatively benign report. The market was generally expecting the job gains to be a little bit lower, but the number was lower than May’s report that really worried some people. If you’re the Fed, you’re saying – what happened in May is not quite as hot as we thought. The data isn’t bad enough to alarm markets, and not bad enough to worry the Fed.” “The data this week could open the door for two (rate cuts), and I expect another surprisingly good inflation report through the end of the summer as shelter costs come down. So I wouldn’t be surprised with two cuts but our base case is still just one. The Fed has very clearly telegraphed they are expecting one cut.”KIM FORREST, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BOKEH CAPITAL PARTNERS, PITTSBURGH“Although (the data) came in hotter than expected, last month’s (data) was pretty aggressively reduced. Unemployment was higher than last month. These are all kind of indications that the economy is maybe not that hot right now. Combine this with last week’s PCE number, and I think we’re getting into a range that a lot of the members of the Fed can stand cutting, (with) the first rate cut sometime in September.”PAUL ASHWORTH, CHIEF NORTH AMERICA ECONOMST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS IN TORONTO “Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and the further rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, which puts us one step closer to triggering the Sahm rule on recessions.””That 206,000 gain was not nearly as good as it looks at first glance. Government employment increased by 70,000, with big gains in non-education state and local government that are hard to square with the anecdotal evidence of budget shortfalls forcing many states to rein in spending. Of the 136,00 increase in private payrolls, health care and social assistance accounted for 82,000 of those additional jobs. That suggests cyclical employment increased by only about 50,000, adding to the evidence of weakness in GDP growth. The massive 48,900 decline in temporary help employment is also a disconcerting sign.”THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN, GREAT HILL CAPITAL LLC, NEW YORK“The market was just bracing for if we were going to have a huge beat and that would have been terrible, because it would have pushed (interest rate cut expectations from) the Fed out to maybe 2025. “The fact that we came broadly in-line (on the payrolls number) and that the unemployment rate ticked up, signals to the market that if the Fed wants to cut (in September), they have enough cover to cut.”“The other thing that we found for the last 12 months is that, even though you’ve had a lot of big beats, when you get a month or two months out, you find that they are dramatically revised down.” More

(Reuters) – Wall Street’s main indexes were on track to open higher on Friday as markets reopened after the July 4 holiday, with data showing that U.S. job growth slowed to a still-healthy pace in June.The Labor Department’s report showed non-farm payrolls rose by 206,000 jobs in June, higher than the expected 190,000 increase. However, numbers for May were revised sharply lower to 218,000 from 272,000.The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, where it was expected to remain unchanged at 4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, as expected, and lower than the 0.4% rise in May.”It’s a relatively benign report. The market was generally expecting the job gains to be a little bit lower, but the number was lower than May’s report that had really worried some people,” said Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO of Bowersock Capital Partners.”If you’re the Fed, you’re saying – what happened in May is not quite as hot as we thought. The data isn’t bad enough to alarm markets, and not bad enough to worry the Fed.”The softer reading supported the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, which comes on the heels of the ADP Employment and weekly jobless claims reports this week that signaled easing labor market conditions.Chances of a 25-basis point September rate cut rose to 72% after the data, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool, from 66%.With Treasury yields falling after the data, megacaps including Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) were up around 0.4% each.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose 1.9% after hitting its highest level since early January on Wednesday.Earlier this week, data also showed a measure of services sector activity dropped to a four-year low and factory orders slumped unexpectedly, pointing to the U.S. economy losing steam and prompting market participants to strengthen their bets for multiple rate cuts this year.That helped the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notch record closing highs during Wednesday’s holiday-shortened trading. With the equity market also staying shut for U.S. Independence Day on Thursday, trading volumes have been light throughout the week.At 8:47 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 46 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4 points, or 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 32 points, or 0.16%.All the three major Wall Street indexes are poised for weekly gains, after high-momentum top technology stocks steered the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to strong gains in the first half of the year.With second-quarter earnings on the horizon, it remains to be seen whether Wall Street’s rally will broaden beyond major megacap stocks and whether earnings for those companies can continue to support steep valuations.Macy’s (NYSE:M) jumped 6.9% after a report said Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital raised their bid to buy the department store chain for about $6.9 billion.Cryptocurrency-related stocks including Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Global, Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) and Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) lost 5%-7% after bitcoin slumped to a more than four-month low. More

Hackers had stolen more than $1.38 billion worth of crypto by June 24, 2024, compared with $657 million in the same period in 2023, TRM Labs said in a report.The median theft was one-and-a-half times larger than the year before, the report said.”While we have not seen any fundamental changes in the security of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, we have seen a significant increase in the value of various tokens – from bitcoin to ETH (ether) and Solana – compared to the same time last year,” said Ari Redbord, global head of policy at TRM Labs.This means that cybercriminals are more motivated to attack crypto services, and can steal more when they do, Redbord said.Crypto prices have generally recovered from the lows hit in late 2022 in the aftermath of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange, FTX. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,803.25 in March this year.Among the largest crypto losses so far this year was the roughly $308 million worth of bitcoin stolen from Japanese crypto exchange DMM Bitcoin, in what the company called an “unauthorised leak”.Cryptocurrency companies are frequent targets for hacks and cyberattacks, although losses of this scale are rare.Stolen cryptocurrency volumes in 2022 were around $900 million, Redbord said, partly due to the more than $600 million stolen from a blockchain network linked to the online game Axie Infinity. The United States has linked North Korean hackers to that theft.The United Nations has accused North Korea of using cyber attacks to help fund its nuclear and missile programs. North Korea has previously denied allegations of hacking and other cyberattacks. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar briefly extended declines against the Japanese yen on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth slowed in June, albeit to a still-healthy pace, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%.Against the Japanese yen , the dollar was last down 0.22% at 160.89.The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.2% to 104.95.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for May was revised sharply down to show 218,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 272,000. More

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada’s economy unexpectedly lost a net 1,400 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate increased more than expected to a 29-month high of 6.4%, data showed on Friday.Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 22,500 jobs and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.3% from 6.2% in May.The jobless rate, on an uptrend over the past year, has risen 1.3 percentage points since April 2023 and is now the highest since 6.5% unemployment in January 2022, Statistics Canada data showed. Excluding the coronavirus pandemic years, unemployment was last as high as 6.4% in October 2017. The statistics agency noted finding jobs was getting harder, citing signs including rising unemployment among youth and, more recently, core-aged men. The unemployment rate for youth rose 0.9 percentage points to 13.5%, which, outside of the pandemic, was the highest since September 2014.The average hourly wage growth of permanent employees, however, accelerated to an annual rate of 5.6% from 5.2% in May. The pay growth rate – closely tracked by the Bank of Canada (BoC) because of its effect on inflation – was the fastest since 5.7% in December.The growth in wages, which tends to lag adjustments in employment, can reflect a range of factors, including composition of employment and base-year effects, Statscan noted.BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said last month that the labor market had cooled reasonably in recent months, and achieving the central bank’s goal of cooling inflation did not need to involve a sharp rise in unemployment. There was even room for economic growth and jobs creation without imperiling the bank’s target of 2% inflation, the governor said.The Canadian dollar, which was largely unchanged in early trade, firmed 0.08% to 1.3624 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.40 U.S. cents at 1242 GMT.Yields on the Canadian government’s two-year bonds dropped by 8.6 basis points to 3.966% after the jobs report.The weak jobs figures could increase the likelihood of a July interest rate cut after an unexpected uptick in inflation in May forced money markets to trim their bets for a rate reduction in July to below 50%. Markets increased their bets for a rate cut this month to 55% from just around 50% before the jobs report.The central bank lowered its key policy rate for the first time in more than four years in June and said more cuts were likely if inflation continued to cool. The bank’s next rate announcement is on July 24, roughly a week after the next inflation data is released on July 16.In June, jobs were shed in full-time work, while part-time positions were added in the month.Employment in the goods sector increased by a net 12,600 jobs, mostly in agriculture, while the services sector lost a net 14,100 jobs, led by transportation and warehousing and Information, culture and recreation. Overall, there were 1.4 million unemployed people in June, up 3.1% from the previous month. More

U.S. equity funds secured a net $8.62 billion in inflows during the week, after witnessing about $16.2 billion worth of net purchases a week ago, LSEG data shows.Weaker economic reports on manufacturing and service activities and jobs data reflecting easing labor market conditions, bolstered hopes that the Fed would start easing policy in September.A softer reading on inflation last week, also supported investor appetite. Fed Chair Powell said on Tuesday that the U.S. is back on a “disinflationary path”, reinforcing expectations about upcoming rate cuts.Investors sought large-cap funds in particular as they drew inflows of about $8.46 billion, extending net purchases into a second week.Multi-cap funds also witnessed $932 million worth of inflows, but investors pulled $1.19 billion and $791 million out of small-cap, and mid-cap funds respectively.U.S. sectoral equity funds, however, suffered $868 million worth of outflows, with investors divesting tech and healthcare funds worth $572 million and $538 million, respectively.U.S. bond funds remained popular for a fifth week in a row as they drew in about $5.72 billion, the most in three weeks.Among U.S. bond funds, general domestic taxable fixed income, and short/intermediate investment-grade funds stood out with $2.87 billion and $2.29 billion worth of net accumulations.Simultaneously, money market funds garnered $23.6 billion worth of inflows, the most in four weeks. More