Aurelia Butler

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LONDON (Reuters) -Keir Starmer will be Britain’s next prime minister with his Labour Party set to win a massive majority in a parliamentary election, an exit poll on Thursday indicated, forecasting Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would suffer historic losses.Centre-left Labour was on course to capture 410 of the 650 seats in parliament, an astonishing reversal of fortunes from five years ago when it suffered its worst performance since 1935.The result would give Labour a majority of 170 and would bring the curtain down on 14 years of increasingly tumultuous Conservative-led government.”To everyone who has campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party – thank you,” Starmer said on X.Sunak’s party were forecast to only win 131 seats, the worst electoral performance in its history, as voters punished them for a cost-of-living crisis, and years of instability and in-fighting which has seen five different prime ministers since the Brexit vote of 2016. The centrist Liberal Democrats were predicted to capture 61 seats while the right-wing populist Reform UK party, headed by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage who had pledged to destroy the Conservative party, was forecast to win 13.The prediction for Reform was far better than expected, and the party comfortably took second place behind Labour in the first two seats to declare their results, pushing the Conservatives into third place.”Much of the damage to the Conservative Party tonight is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary,” John Curtice, Britain’s most respected pollster told the BBC.However, the exit poll suggests overall British voters have shifted support to the centre-left, unlike in France where Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party made historic gains in an election last Sunday.It was not just the Conservatives whose vote was predicted to have collapsed. The pro-independence Scottish National Party was forecast to win only 10 seats, its worst showing since 2010, after a period of turmoil which has seen two leaders quit in little over a year.In the last six UK elections, only one exit poll has got the outcome wrong. Official results will follow over the next few hours. “If this exit poll is correct, then this is a historic defeat for the Conservative Party, one of the most resilient forces that have we have seen in British political history,” Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos, which carried out the exit poll, told Reuters.”It looked like the Conservatives were going to be in power for 10 years and it has all fallen apart.”SUNAK ‘FALL GUY’Sunak stunned Westminster and many in his own party by calling the election earlier than he needed to in May with the Conservatives trailing Labour by some 20 points in opinion polls.He had hoped that the gap would narrow as had traditionally been the case in British elections, but the deficit has failed to budge in a fairly disastrous campaign.It started badly with him getting drenched by rain outside Downing Street as he announced the vote, before aides and Conservative candidates became caught up in a gambling scandal over suspicious bets placed on the date of the election.Sunak’s early departure from D-Day commemorative events in France to do a TV interview angered veterans, and even those within his own party said it raised questions about his political acumen. If the exit poll proves right, it represents an incredible turnaround for Starmer and Labour, which critics and supporters said was facing an existential crisis just three years ago when it appeared to have lost its way after its 2019 drubbing.But a series of scandals – most notably revelations of parties in Downing Street during COVID lockdowns – undermined then prime minister Boris Johnson and its commanding poll leads evaporated. Liz Truss’ disastrous six-week premiership, which followed Johnson being forced out at the end of 2022, cemented the decline, and Sunak was unable to make any dent in Labour’s now commanding poll lead.”We deserved to lose. The Conservative Party just appears exhausted and out of ideas,” Ed Costello, the chairman of the Grassroots Conservatives organisation, which represents rank-and-file members, told Reuters.””But it is not all Rishi Sunak’s fault. It is Boris Johnson and Liz Truss that have led the party to disaster. Rishi Sunak is just the fall guy.”While polls have suggested that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour leader Starmer, his simple message that it was time for change appears to have resonated with voters.However, the predicted Labour result would not quite match the record levels achieved by the party under Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001 when the party captured 418 and 412 seats respectively. More

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese household spending unexpectedly fell in May, government data showed on Friday, as higher prices continued to squeeze consumers’ purchasing power, further threatening the fragile economy.Consumer spending contracted 1.8% in May from a year earlier, far short of the median market forecast for a 0.1% uptick, as rising food prices weighed on spending for other items.Consumption is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scrutinising to gauge the strength of Japan’s economy and decide how soon to raise interest rates.The weaker yen weighed on spending, including pushing down demand for overseas package tours, a government official told reporters at a briefing.On a seasonally adjusted, month-on-month basis, spending decreased 0.3% versus an estimated 0.5% rise.Sluggish private consumption is a source of concern for policymakers striving to achieve sustained economic growth underpinned by solid wages and durable inflation, which are prerequisites for normalising monetary policy.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said he expects consumption to recover as big wage hikes offered by many Japanese companies, and government subsidies to curb electricity bills, prop up household income.”I still think consumer spending is on a recovery trend in April-June, given rising wages and income tax cuts that kicked in from June,” said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute, adding that he expects the BOJ to raise interest rates in September.The Japanese economy shrank more than initially reported in the January-March quarter, the government said earlier this week, in a rare, unscheduled revision to gross domestic product (GDP) data. Economists, though, expect GDP to rebound this quarter thanks to higher wages and capital spending driving up domestic demand. A survey conducted by Japan’s largest trade union group showed workers’ monthly pay will rise 5.10% on average this fiscal year, the biggest hike in three decades. More

The survey indicates that the Labour Party is heading for a historic victory in the parliamentary election, while Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is predicted to encounter a record defeat.The exit poll indicates that Labour could secure 410 seats out of the 650-seat parliament, establishing a majority of 170 and marking the end of the 14-year Conservative reign. In contrast, the Conservative Party is expected to secure only 131 seats, a steep decline from the 346 seats they held when parliament was dissolved.This would mark the worst electoral performance in the party’s history, a result of public dissatisfaction with the cost-of-living crisis and years of political instability and internal disagreements.Pat McFadden, Labour’s campaign coordinator, emphasized Labour’s readiness to implement change, stating, “If we are successful tonight, Labour will get to work immediately with our first steps for change.”The Liberal Democrats, a centrist party, are projected to secure 61 seats, while the right-wing populist Reform UK, led by Brexit advocate Nigel Farage, is expected to win 13 seats. Despite Reform UK’s better-than-predicted performance, the overall election results seem to indicate a shift in public preference towards the centre-left.The Scottish National Party (SNP), known for its pro-independence stance, is forecasted to win only 10 seats – their worst performance since 2010. The SNP has faced significant turmoil, including leadership changes, a police investigation into party finances, and policy disagreements.The exit poll’s accuracy is generally reliable, with only one misprediction in the last six UK elections. The official results will be released in the next few hours.Sunak’s decision to call an election earlier than necessary in May, despite trailing Labour by approximately 20 points in opinion polls, surprised many. His hope that the deficit would dwindle, as traditionally happens in British elections, did not materialize during the campaign. A series of scandals, including suspicious bets placed on the election date and an early departure from D-Day commemorative events in France, further marred the Conservative campaign.If the exit poll proves accurate, it would represent a significant comeback for Starmer and the Labour Party. Despite the lack of overt enthusiasm for Starmer, his straightforward message promoting change seems to have resonated with the voting public. More

(Reuters) -European shares rose on Thursday amid optimism around U.S. interest rate cuts following soft economic data, while London markets gained as voting began in the UK general election with polls predicting a historic victory for the Labour party.The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.6% to a more one-week high. Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.8%, with markets waiting to see how large a majority the Labour Party might win.”The UK outcome, widely expected to be a Labour victory, won’t have much impact unless there’s a big upset or surprising outcome, as markets have likely already discounted this,” said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.French stocks advanced for a second day with a 0.8% rise amid intensified efforts by opponents of France’s National Rally (RN) to prevent the far-right party from gaining power.An opinion poll on Thursday showed RN is expected to fall short of an absolute majority in the second round of a parliamentary election on Sunday. The European lenders sub-index, which includes French lenders such as Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) and BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), gained on the news, up 1.3% and leading sectoral gains. Weak U.S. data boosted sentiment on the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits increased last week, indicating a cooling labour market.In Europe, German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in May, while another report showed Swiss inflation fell last month, encouraging markets to shorten their odds that the central bank will cut interest rates again later this year.”Today’s headlines may create dovish risk, but the stickiness in services and domestic inflation at the high end of the (Swiss National Bank)’s target corridor or above may be a concern,” strategists at Citigroup noted. Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers were mostly confident that inflation would continue to fall but some felt uneasy about cutting interest rates last month given a slew of negative surprises, the accounts of their meeting showed.Among individual stocks, Britain’s Smith & Nephew (LON:SN) rose 6.8% after activist investor Cevian Capital disclosed a 5% stake in the medical equipment maker.France’s Pluxee fell 9.2% after the voucher and benefits company reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter sales in Europe on Wednesday.Sweden’s Ericsson (BS:ERICAs) slipped 1.2% after the telecoms equipment maker recorded another impairment charge of 11.4 billion Swedish crowns ($1.09 billion) in the second quarter of 2024. Trading volumes were low on account of a public holiday in the United States. More