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    Bundesbank chief calls for German tax cuts to boost investment

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    UBS considers 3 scenarios for the 2nd round of the French legislative elections

    Investing.com – As the markets digest the results of the first round of the French legislative elections, UBS analysts have examined possible scenarios for the second round in a note published this Monday.
    They first pointed out that the outcome of the first round of the French legislative elections, held last weekend, does not easily allow for predicting the results of the second round.
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    With a participation rate of 65.8%, the highest since 1997, preliminary results show significant gains for parties at both extremes of the political spectrum. Exit polls place the National Rally (RN) in the lead with 33.2%, followed by the New Popular Front (NFP) with 28.1%, and Macron’s Ensemble alliance with 21%.
    UBS highlights that one of the most notable features of this first round is the high number of three-candidate races in the second round. For the first time since 1958, more than 250 constituencies will see three candidates compete, adding further complexity to predicting the final results.
    UBS analysts believe that this situation could lead to a period of political instability in France. According to their forecasts, it is likely that no party will obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which could result in a minority government or an assembly without a clear majority, making it difficult to pass any legislation.
    More specifically, the UBS report identifies three possible scenarios:
    A minority government led by the RN with limited legislative power.
    A hung parliament, leading to a political deadlock and a government composed of moderate parties.
    A minority government led by the NFP, also with limited legislative power.
    In terms of the market reaction, UBS already observes increased nervousness. Sovereign bond yield spreads have widened, and French stocks have underperformed compared to other European markets. Since June 7, French stock indices have dropped by 6.5% for large caps () and 12% for small caps (MSCI Small Caps index), while European indices () have fallen by 3%.
    In this context, UBS advises investors not to make drastic changes to their portfolio strategy based on political events. Instead, they recommend maintaining adequate diversification and considering structured investments with capital protection or yield generation features.
    In summary, UBS analysts warn that uncertainty surrounding the second round of the French legislative elections could continue to weigh on the performance of French and European financial markets. More

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    Cloudbet Integrates Ethena USDe (sUSDe) Stablecoin and ENA Tokens

    Cloudbet, a leading cryptocurrency casino and sportsbook, announced the integration of Ethena USDe (sUSDe) and ENA. By integrating sUSDe on the platform, bettors have now the chance to receive returns even when their funds are not being wagered.The move introduces a new level of financial flexibility and efficiency for Cloudbet users. Traditionally, when users deposit funds into their gambling accounts, those funds remain idle until they place their bets. Cloudbet’s integration of sUSDe, the staked version of the algorithmic stablecoin USDe, has entirely shifted the paradigm of betting, setting a new standard for user-centric innovation.The decision to include Ethena tokens and ENA, the governance token for the Ethena protocol which launched at $0.55 in April 2024, is indicative of the platform’s proactive, crypto-native approach to developments in the space.Furthering its commitment to crypto-friendly online gaming, Cloudbet also expanded its support to multiple blockchain networks, including TON and Base.About CloudbetCloudbet is a proud pioneer of crypto betting. Since its launch in 2013, as the world’s first crypto-friendly sportsbook and casino, Cloudbet has served hundreds of thousands of users and taken millions of bets, establishing a reputation as the most trusted, secure, and VIP-friendly brand in crypto gaming. Cloudbettors can bet with 30+ cryptocurrencies, from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins like USDC and USDT, to SOL and other popular altcoins. The site is available in 18 languages (including Spanish, German, Italian, French and Japanese). For media inquiries, odds, and insights, users can contact [email protected]. ContactIreneHalcyon Super Holdings [email protected] article was originally published on Chainwire More

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    European groups urge action to stop threat of cheap Chinese imports

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Bitcoin mining stocks rally in June amid AI frenzy – JPMorgan

    According to a note from JPMorgan, dated Monday, these factors contributed to a 19% sequential increase in the aggregate market cap of 14 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners, which reached $22 billion.The investment bank highlighted several key factors behind this rally. First, the AI data centers emerged as a more lucrative use case for mining facilities. Second, the scarcity and value of power access have become more apparent. Lastly, a decline in network hashrate modestly improved mining economics for U.S.-listed operators, although profitability remains nearly 50% below pre-halving levels.Despite an overall decline, the average Bitcoin price in June hovered around $66,000, up merely 1% from May. However, it exited the month lower at a $61,200 seven-day rolling average, an 11% decrease from the previous month’s figure. The network hashrate, a proxy for industry competition, declined for the second consecutive month, averaging 583 EH/s in June. This marks a 3% decrease from the previous month and a massive drop from pre-halving levels. Mining difficulty also declined by 1% from the end of May.Mining profitability showed a modest improvement, with miners earning an average of $52,000 per EH/s in daily block reward revenue in June, a 6% increase month-over-month. However, this is still well below the peak of $342,000 in November 2021 when Bitcoin prices were $60,000, and the network hashrate was 161 EH/s.JPMorgan notes that the group of 14 U.S.-listed miners had an aggregate market cap of $21.9 billion as of June 30th, with Terawulf Inc (NASDAQ:WULF) being the best performer, up 117%, and Argo Blockchain (NASDAQ:ARBK) being the worst, down 17%. “Nearly every miner tracked outperformed Bitcoin in June, reflecting the market’s enthusiasm for AI data centers and the scarcity and value of power access,” JPMorgan stated.JPMorgan’s analysis reveals that the aggregate market cap of the 14 largest U.S.-listed bitcoin miners has been, on average, 17% of the nominal value of all remaining bitcoin since January 2022. This ratio peaked at 29% in December 2023 and was 28% as of June 30th. The aggregate market cap of these miners, which account for 24% of the total network hashrate, is about 28% as large as the nominal value of all remaining bitcoin.Finally, the report compares the market cap of these bitcoin mining operators with the four-year rolling block reward revenue opportunity, which coincides with the useful life of mining hardware. This ratio peaked at 57% in December 2023 and was 55% as of May 31st, up 13 points sequentially, versus an average of 33% since January 2022. More

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    Le Pen brings protectionism home to the French border

    This article is an onsite version of our Trade Secrets newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Monday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newslettersHello from Trade Secrets. A bad week for incumbents: a woeful US presidential debate performance by Joe Biden, a clobbering in the French parliamentary elections for Emmanuel Macron and, despite last night’s cheering last-minute England football victory, the Conservatives’ likely obliteration in this week’s UK general election. Today I look at the extent of cross-party consensus on trade in those countries, and why France is different. No Trade Secrets column this Thursday — I don’t want to distract British readers from casting their votes — so I’ll see you next Monday. Today’s Charted waters is on turnout in the French elections. Now, let me ask you: have I got it right about France? (French politics is always a fiendishly complex thing to judge.) Email me on [email protected] ça change in Britain and the US . . . First let me do my favourite thing and quote myself, in this case my contribution to last week’s FT Swamp Notes newsletter by the great Ed Luce, US commentator extraordinaire. I was asked to contrast the views of current US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Trump’s USTR (and possible future Treasury secretary) Robert Lighthizer. Conclusion: despite being a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican, not much difference.[They have] a very DC strain of thinking that transcends liberal-conservative ideology and rewards specific narrow groups under the name of redistribution. Lighthizer and Tai are both lawyers, not economists. Both have spent decades as DC insiders. Both think you can fix trade deficits with trade policy, not macroeconomics.Of course, Donald Trump in power is likely to prove far more aggressive and erratic than Biden. But there’s striking bipartisan agreement on the analysis, certainly compared with most other domestic issues — fiscal policy, the environment, healthcare and abortion. The centre of gravity of US trade policy has hopped in one bound from the mainstream Clinton-G W Bush-Obama consensus to one aggressively using tariffs and treating multilateral processes with disregard bordering on contempt.If you look at the UK you see the same bipartisanship between the Tories and Labour (and the centre party, the Liberal Democrats) but with the consensus more or less staying the same over time — relatively supportive of open trade and multilateralism and signing trade deals. Right away I can hear Remainers telling me that this Tory government has been the most protectionist since at least the Great Depression, trade barriers thrown up with Britain’s biggest trading partner by far, and so on. They’re not wrong, but to be fair the Leave campaign — and the government’s actions since — were generally in favour of trading with both the EU and the rest of the world and have signed trade deals since. This includes agreements with some domestic political cost (if not much actual impact) such as the Australia deal, which alarmed British cattle farmers.Obviously a lot of Leavers, former prime minister Boris Johnson being one, didn’t understand the world trading system, including the importance and nature of the EU single market, the Brussels Effect on regulation, the irrelevance of signing trade deals with countries 12,000 miles away, the simultaneous impossibility and pointlessness of a bilateral deal with the US, the strictly limited scope for establishing a radically different trade defence regime and much besides. But that was boneheaded ignorance, rank prejudice and hapless incompetence rather than protectionist intent.Labour’s trade policy is mercifully lighter on signing pointless bits of paper with US states and realistic about not getting one with the federal government either. But still they’re keen on an India deal (prediction: they might get one, but it won’t have much in it) plus standalone bilateral services and digital deals (ditto, ditto). For general ideology towards trade Labour aren’t a huge change from the Tories: what distinguishes them is a much less virulent neurosis over the EU. . . . but (perhaps) all change in FranceWhich brings us to France. France is different. (France is often different.) A Marine Le Pen presidency, unless she balks at implementing her programme, would be a marked change from Macron’s. That’s less because her worldview on global trade is massively different than that her domestic policies would severely weaken the EU from within.It may be insufficiently appreciated outside the EU that Macron’s enthusiasm for economic liberalisation tends to stop at the French border. At an EU level France has been as interventionist over trade as ever. Macron is the main obstacle in either trading bloc to ratifying the giant EU-Mercosur trade deal. Paris wants to erect big hurdles for agricultural imports to the EU by creating “mirror clauses” requiring trading partners to match EU standards on the environment and food hygiene. France’s hyperactive commissioner Thierry Breton has never seen an industrial policy or an instrument to use against China he didn’t like. And so on.Where Macron has largely stopped short is any intervention that would seriously weaken the internal market from its current state, and that’s the most dangerous part of Le Pen’s platform. Repatriating France’s EU budget contribution, limiting immigration to France from inside the EU, tearing up public procurement rules: these are lethally dangerous for the EU project. Crudely speaking, and exaggerating considerably for emphasis, she’s doing to the EU what France has long argued the EU should do to the rest of the world.As I’ve said before, current and previous rightwing populists such as Giorgia Meloni in Italy (and the Five Star Movement and the League before her) have unsavoury views on immigrants but are reasonably keen on the internal market and external trade. Le Pen is different. France often is. This is seriously very worrying stuff. The optimistic case is that she’s ditched a lot of her really extreme views (like withdrawing from the euro) before and will do so again. But in practice she may feel the space has opened up more for her party to be true to itself.Charted watersNot just radical policies but energised voters: France’s election yesterday showed a big surge in votes compared with previous episodes. It will be hard to argue that this election doesn’t suggest a big demand for change.Trade linksDemonstrations against tax increases in Kenya to deal with the country’s severe sovereign debt crisis, which ended with protesters shot dead by police, underline the debt problem plaguing many low and middle-income countries amid debates about whether the IMF or China is more to blame. My esteemed colleagues Peter Foster and Andy Bounds look at what a constructive Labour government could do to improve trade with the EU.One bit of cheer for Brussels: a Eurobarometer poll shows nearly three-quarters of citizens of EU countries think the bloc rather than individual member states is the best place to set trade policy. From a few weeks ago, a paper from the Hinrich Foundation examines whether rules of origin are likely to be the next flashpoint in trade disputes, especially in the US.An interesting paper from Tulip Consulting for the Brussels-based NGO Transport and Environment looks at how EU trade deals could better be used to promote sustainability in deals over critical raw materials.The FT’s Lex column looks at possible investment returns in emerging markets. Trade Secrets is edited by Jonathan MoulesRecommended newsletters for youChris Giles on Central Banks — Vital news and views on what central banks are thinking, inflation, interest rates and money. Sign up hereThe State of Britain — Helping you navigate the twists and turns of Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with Europe and beyond. Sign up here More

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    Tiny Chain Bridge is top banker to Trump, Republican campaigns

    (Reuters) – When Republican campaigns want a banker, they don’t go to New York or San Francisco, but to downtown McLean, Virginia – about a 20 minute drive from the White House, where a one-branch bank next to an auto repair shop has beaten bigger financial rivals to become a must-have partner for political work.Chain Bridge Bank, privately owned and with some 70 employees, has worked with the campaign of every Republican Party presidential nominee since John McCain in 2008, including Donald Trump.For almost two decades the bank founded by former Republican U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald has quietly built its position by catering to politics, where large sums shift at short notice and bankers are always on call. Its business model, and the group it serves, could face more scrutiny after the bank said in May it was considering going public. “In the U.S., federal politics is a $20 billion dollar industry and a couple of financial institutions have appealed and marketed themselves to these entities,” said Daniel Weiner, a director at the Brennan Center for Justice.”Part of it is that the environment is a little Wild West but part of it is that it is a rather insular community, people work by word of mouth.”Reuters reviewed campaign documents filed with the Federal Election Commission going back to 2007 and spoke to Chain Bridge’s management and customers before its initial public offering plans were announced, to learn how it came to dominate the market for Republican political campaigns.As recently as 2016, top Republican presidential contenders Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio banked at BB&T – a sprawling North Carolina-based lender that was merged into Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC). But in the 2024 election cycle, where Republicans have already raised over $1 billion, every major Republican presidential candidate, including former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, was a Chain Bridge customer. The Republican National Committee, the party’s main coordinating body, has been a customer since 2008, although it also has accounts with Truist Financial.The bank has been so successful because it meets the oddball needs of political campaigns in a way no competitor does, according to Bradley Crate, treasurer for Trump’s 2024 and 2020 campaigns and head of political consultancy Red Curve Solutions.”We don’t have time to wait for people’s lunch breaks,” he told Reuters. “If there’s an issue at a large bank, I’m not going to be able to call the head of the bank to figure it out.”New accounts at Chain Bridge take minutes to open, even at short notice. Crate, who has opened more than 1,200 accounts at the bank for clients, once set up new accounts in 15 minutes on a Sunday.All big depositors are assigned a representative and Crate has called his as late as 11:00 pm. If that doesn’t work, he also has the chairman’s number. The bank has also lent money to campaigns. During Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign the bank made a loan against donations which had come in but could not be spent until after the Republican National Convention, when Romney officially became the party’s nominee, according to Crate.Campaigns rushing to pay for last-minute advertisements or events can rely on the bank processing transfers right up until the Federal Reserve stops accepting requests at 6:45 pm.”When larger banks close their wire at 3:00 pm and someone contacts us at 4:30 pm and they need payment for an event tomorrow, we have to FedEx (NYSE:FDX) a check, which is silly,” Crate said.Chain Bridge’s political customers extend beyond Republican circles. The pro-Israel United Democracy Project super PAC (political action committee) and tobacco company Altria (NYSE:MO)’s corporate PAC are customers, electoral filings show. The US Chamber of Commerce PAC is as well.The 2024 election campaign for Republican Mike Johnson added Chain Bridge Bank to its paperwork for the first time within three weeks of his election as House speaker on Oct 25. “We’re like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA),” Fitzgerald, who is also Chain Bridge’s chairman, said in an interview with Reuters in January, referencing the electric vehicle maker that for years eschewed traditional advertising.”We have a marketing budget that’s essentially zero and we’ve grown by word of mouth.” FRIENDS WITH MCCAINFitzgerald’s own background in politics was integral to the bank’s growth. A Republican from Illinois, he launched the bank in 2007, after retiring from the U.S. Senate two years earlier. His seat was won by former U.S. President Barack Obama.Fitzgerald says Senator John McCain, who he called a close friend, became the bank’s first major political client in 2008 when his campaign needed a new bank after pulling money from Wachovia, which was hit hard by the 2008 banking crisis. “They were very nervous,” Fitzgerald said. “They switched to us because we had the cleanest balance sheet.”Electoral filings show Chain Bridge joined the McCain campaign in April 2008 as one of four banks, including Wachovia.Money has poured into politics since then, in large part due to the 2010 Supreme Court Citizens United decision which relaxed rules around campaign finance.Republican candidates for president and Congress raised $2.6 billion in 2020, according to the Federal Election Commission, a two-thirds jump from 2016. Those figures do not include money raised by third party groups like super PACs.Today, Chain Bridge wins a “substantial” portion of political campaign work, according to Fitzgerald, although it is no monopoly. Electoral filings show the Charles Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity PAC, which backed Haley’s campaign, banked with Truist Financial.Lobbying committees for oil giant Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) bank with Citibank and Bank of America, respectively, while Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) opts for Wells Fargo, according to electoral filings.Democrats also have a favored bank. Biden’s campaign banks with the partly union-owned and publicly-listed Amalgamated Bank (NASDAQ:AMAL), as did Obama and 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton before him. ROLLER COASTER BALANCE SHEETChain Bridge’s balance sheet moves to a political rhythm. Deposits rise through the election campaign period and then crater as politicians spend furiously in the finishing stretch. Deposits fell 21% after the November 2020 election. After the mid terms in 2022 they dropped 25%.Faced with the equivalent of a small bank run every two years, Chain Bridge is a conservative lender. It has had no non-performing loans in twelve years, according to its annual report. Roughly three quarters of its $1.2 billion in assets at the end of 2023 were investment grade securities or cash.While it remains to be seen what sort of welcome the bank will get from the stock market, customers will keep coming as long as it maintains its customer service culture, says Crate.”We’ve banked at larger banks – Bank of America, JP Morgan, things of that nature – and we just don’t get the same experience,” he said. “It makes it really hard to go anywhere else.” More

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    FirstFT: Investors predict a hung parliament in France, after RN wins first-round vote

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More