Aurelia Butler

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    in Economy

    NY Fed data shows neutral rate holding steady at low level

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – The underlying level of interest rates viewed as neutral in economic influence held steady at a low level over the first three months of this year, according to data released on Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said that R-Star stood at 0.7% in the first quarter of this year, unchanged from the revised reading reported for the final three months of 2023. The bank defines R-Star as the level of interest rates in place when the economy is expanding and inflation is stable. The current R-Star reading suggests that the low interest rate world that has prevailed for a number of years still holds. R-Star has waxed and waned in importance for central bank policymakers but its relative stability contrasts with an evolution among officials toward an expectation that the era of super cheap borrowing costs that prevailed in the years leading up to the coronavirus pandemic may be over. On Wednesday, as part of its latest set of quarterly forecasts, Fed officials revised up for a second straight time their estimates of the longer-run federal funds rate target. It was at 2.5% in December, moved up to 2.6% in the March estimates and now stands at 2.8%. That implies officials’ view of R-Star is rising as the forecast effectively takes the Fed’s 2% inflation target and adds an R-Star estimate, which suggests officials see the variable standing at around 0.8%, slightly above the current New York Fed offering. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking to reporters after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, cautioned against reading too much into the shift higher in the Fed’s long-term rate forecast, noting the neutral rate of interest “really is a theoretical concept, can’t be directly observed.” R-Star estimates don’t “get you where you need to be to think about what appropriate policy is in the near term,” he said.But Powell did allow that the longer-run rate forecast does signal an evolution. “People have been gradually writing it up, because I just think people are coming to the view that rates are less likely to go down to their pre-pandemic levels, which were very low by recent history measures,” he said.New York Fed President John Williams, a leading figure in the formulation of the R-Star concept, agrees that R-Star is not particularly useful in making near-term tactical decisions about rates. But late last month he told reporters “the factors that have held down interest rates over the last decade or so, I think are still in play.”I just don’t have the confidence that is sometimes expressed that the neutral interest rate is permanently higher, because I haven’t seen that in the data yet,” Williams said. POLICY POTENCY The demotion of R-Star comes as Fed officials have been struggling to understand how monetary policy influences the economy. Despite very aggressive rate rises, the economy has not slowed as much as many economists and policymakers had expected, and that vigor has called into question whether rates have gone high enough to bring inflation back under control. By itself, R-Star points to clear restraint on the part of Fed policy. Fed officials do agree monetary policy is restrictive, based on public comments. Meanwhile, a recent report from the Cleveland Fed said a mix of monetary policy rules indicate that the current level of the federal funds rate, at between 5.25% and 5.5%, is slightly more restrictive than the about 5% level suggested by those rules. More

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    in Economy

    Fed’s Bostic flags more issues with financial disclosures

    NEW YORK (Reuters) -A financial disclosure form for Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic notes more issues with reporting of past trading and investing activities. Bostic’s disclosure form for 2023, made public on Friday, flagged several filing errors, including one that was referred to the central bank’s Inspector General, the central bank’s in-house watchdog. The latest form pointed to a retirement fund of his spouse which had been left out of a past disclosure. The form said “the omission was reported to the Board of Governors” and the Fed’s I.G. The form also noted the Board of Directors overseeing the Atlanta Fed had “directly addressed this concern.” A spokesperson for the Fed’s Board of Governors acknowledged the matter had been referred to the I.G. An Atlanta Fed spokesperson said in a statement that Bostic “discovered a previously undisclosed retirement account belonging to his spouse from a former employer in the 1990s. It was immediately brought to the attention” of the bank’s board, “who confirmed with President Bostic and the Atlanta Fed Ethics Officer that there were no contributions to or trades in the account starting from President Bostic’s first year in office, 2017, to the end of the filing period.”Bostic’s disclosure form came as part of the release of disclosure forms for regional Fed leadership in office as of 2023. Issues with Bostic’s past financial filings had already been referred to the I.G. The I.G. declined to comment on the matter of Bostic’s disclosures. Earlier this year the Fed’s I.G. released a hotly anticipated report detailing the financial activities of two men who led the Dallas and Boston Fed banks until they abruptly retired in the fall of 2021 after documents revealed both had actively traded in markets while helping set monetary policy.The I.G. cleared both of formal wrongdoing but said the two men had created the appearance of a conflict of interest via their trading. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his second in command Richard Clarida were also cleared of impropriety in their trading activity in a 2022 I.G. report. In the wake of the revelation of the regional Fed trading activity the Fed updated its ethics code to sharply limit what Fed officials, immediate family members and top staff can do with their investing. The Fed is currently working on enhancing that new system. More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Autonomys Network: ex-Jumio Executive Appointed CEO for New deAI Vision Ahead of Mainnet Launch

    Autonomys (formerly Subspace) is now an identity-based decentralized AI (deAI) stack for human + AI (H+AI) collaborationIntroducing Autonomys—a decentralized AI (deAI) verticalized stack encompassing distributed storage, distributed compute, and a decentralized application (dApp) suite. The first primitive being built in the Auto Suite is our decentralized identity protocol Autonomys ID (Auto ID). Autonomys’s deAI ecosystem stack is designed to provide all the necessary components to build and deploy AI-powered dApps (super dApps) and agents, and includes:“In the web3-enabled decentralized future, humans will be empowered by AI while retaining radical autonomy over their destinies. Unlike centralized AI, which is often biased and profit-driven, a decentralized platform embraces the rich tapestry of humanity, ensuring AI serves as an ally that reflects our diversity and enriches our lives. Only through decentralization can we achieve a future where AI truly amplifies human potential without compromising our values. We are shamelessly humanity maximalists.” – Labhesh Patel, Autonomys CEO.Autonomys NetworkThe cornerstone of Autonomy’s vision for secure, sovereign H+AI collaboration is the Autonomys Network, a deployment of the Subspace Protocol. Its large community of farmers secures the blockchain—underpinned by innovative Proof-of-Archival-Storage (PoAS) consensus—by contributing storage, thereby earning rewards through active participation. The growing node operator network similarly provides compute power (execution), via our Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, and earns rewards. These decoupled execution environments are called domains. Read more about the protocol in the Autonomys Academy.This powerful combination of consensus via PoAS and compute via PoS provides the ideal foundation for building stable, scalable products in the future, including Autonomys ID (Auto ID) and the applications built on top of this primitive. In this way, the Autonomys Network is set to become the infrastructure layer that underpins the full web3 x AI (AI3.0) stack, while simultaneously offering users control over their digital lives. Autonomys is helping pioneer an alternative path of autonomy to the state-dependency introduced by Universal Basic Income (UBI), suggested as a solution to the potential ‘jobs apocalypse’ brought about by the Age of AI. Our pathway, meanwhile, leads to the Age of Autonomy.Autonomys IDAny deAI stack is incomplete without the ability for humans to provide rule-based access controls. These are crucial to ensure AI agents are developed and operate within safe, ethical boundaries. Thus, the need for secure, verifiable identities is paramount.Autonomys ID (Auto ID) is designed to meet this need by providing a robust, privacy-preserving decentralized identity protocol allowing both humans and AI agents to establish and verify their identities seamlessly. It represents a foundational pillar of our mission to help usher in the Age of Autonomy. Auto ID enables you to prove your humanity and create a unique identity on-chain without subjecting yourself to invasive biometric scans. This comprehensive proof-of-personhood can then be used across various dApps and services.The integration of Auto ID within the Autonomy decentralized AI stack goes beyond human identities, however. By equipping AI agents with identities derived from human-controlled Auto IDs, Autonomy can establish a system of trust and accountability. This ensures that AI agents adhere to the guardrails defined by their human counterparts, fostering a secure and ethical AI environment. Soon, users will be able to use their Auto ID to develop and efficiently collaborate with AI agents that operate and perform complex transactions within a rule-based framework. Users can also be able to control your agents’ permissions and authenticate AI-generated content, bringing traceability to generative content, and allowing users to maintain authority over their digital footprint, as well as that of their agents.A Brief RetrospectiveIn 2021, co-founders Jeremiah Wagstaff and Nazar Mokrynskyi released the farmer’s dilemma whitepaper after more than three years of R&D, funded entirely by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Web3 Foundation. They conceived of a more equitable, fourth-generation Layer-1 blockchain, in line with Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision. This marked the birth of the Subspace Network. Based on a novel consensus protocol allowing anyone to participate using their off-the-shelf PC, the network would scale as the number of users grew. This made Subspace the first truly scalable permanent decentralized storage solution for web3. The same year, the project raised $4.5 million in seed funding, and in 2022, $33 million in a strategic financing round led by Pantera Capital, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Ventures, Crypto.com, Hypersphere Ventures and Stratos Technologies.Autonomy’s vision of enabling web3 to operate at Internet-scale has continued to evolve alongside the needs of the industry. In the years following, Subspace was unique in offering modular compute and execution, and developed into the scalable Layer-0 blockchain for both storage and compute.Looking to the FutureAt Autonomys, the aim is to take that a step further. The new roadmap foresees the Autonomys Network also serving as the:future foundation layer for open, secure & accountable web3 x AI integration.The company believes it has the tech, personnel and experience to achieve that goal. Over the last year, the project has taken a deep dive into AI under the inspiring leadership of our former CEO Jeremiah Wagstaff. While he and co-founder Nazar are stepping back from day-to-day leadership, they will continue to steer R&D through our most difficult problems, including further scaling via data sharding, and collective alignment of agentic AI. The team is immensely grateful for the insightful feedback we received from our diverse ecosystem of stakeholders during this time. It has been instrumental in our decision-making.Autonomy’s new CEO Labhesh Patel, an expert in identity and AI, is stewarding Autonomys towards this AI3.0 mission, and is already pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. In the coming days and weeks, the community can expect Subspace’s domains, social handles and more to rebrand to Autonomys. Labhesh will soon be hosting a X/Twitter space to discuss these changes with the community. We’re incredibly excited for you to meet him.Labhesh has over a decade of experience spanning the AI, web3, and identity and access management (IAM) industries, and brings a wealth of expertise to the project. In addition to developing cutting-edge technologies in digital ID, KYC and identity verification, Labhesh has dedicated years to the building and productizing of large-scale AI models. He is leveraging this experience to architect the creation of Auto ID, which will utilize fraud-resistant, non-invasive protocols to ensure secure Proof-of-Personhood (PoP) atop the Autonomys AI3.0 stack. His professional career is marked by a commitment to privacy, security and the seamless integration of AI and blockchain technology.Users are invited to follow on X, and join the Autonomys community on Discord if you they haven’t already. Exciting updates and announcements are to follow. Autonomys’ new vision—to integrate the power of web3 with AI—is beginning to be realized with the release of Nova EVM and, soon, Auto ID. Looking ahead, we’re laser-focused on our plan to go live on mainnet in Q3 2024, and the team is looking forward to sharing more details and sneak peeks into the Auto product suite in the near future.AI3.0 By AutonomysAs we move forward, Autonomys remains committed to driving innovation at the intersection of web3 and AI—what we’re calling AI3.0. Our vision is to create a world where AI agents and humans can interact seamlessly and securely within a decentralized ecosystem. By providing a comprehensive decentralized AI stack and a pioneering identity framework with Auto ID, we are laying the foundation for a future where technology empowers and protects individuals and their digital counterparts.Welcome to Autonomys. Join us as an active participant in the Age of Autonomy.ContactsMarketing LeadRadha MathurAutonomys [email protected] of EcosystemJim CounterAutonomys [email protected] article was originally published on Chainwire More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Key Reason Why Bitcoin (BTC) Is Struggling Now

    Despite equities showing strong momentum, BTC is failing to gather any upward momentum. The key reason for divergence can be attributed to post-halving capitulation by BTC miners that, in essence, is capping the price at this level. Increasing the costs of operations and lower reward structures results in massive sell-offs by BTC miners, laying on bearish pressure and not allowing the BTC to catch up with good signals on the broader financial markets.It is further worsened by the extent that Flowbank, a bank featuring a tri-party agreement with Binance, is in bankruptcy proceedings. Generally speaking, this development complicates market dynamics for Bitcoin even more.We are in for basically a quiet summer, with no clear catalyst to drive the market either way and a lower volatility environment. Gary Gensler of the SEC has given a signal that a spot ETH ETF might get approved toward the end of the summer, but that would not be an immediate catalyst for BTC. The market is just in a holding pattern, waiting for significant news or events to guide it.This makes it a strategic window for Ethereum, or ETH, traders. With ETH volatility at a 10 vol premium to BTC and the spread likely shrinking on ETH overwriters returning and anticipating ETH spot ETF approval, this quiet summer may be a good time to be involved in accumulation trades for ETH and a strategic redistribution of risks, to avoid complications in periods of high volatility.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Michael Saylor’s Epic Bitcoin Prediction: $8 Million Target Decoded

    In his speech, Saylor reflected on his journey with Bitcoin, admitting that he initially dismissed the digital asset when it was priced at just $892. This skepticism led him to buy Bitcoin later at a much higher price of $9,500.One of the standout quotes from Saylor’s speech, as highlighted by Luke Broyles, was, “Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.”Saylor made a bold prediction: when Bitcoin reaches $950,000, many will still wait for it to drop to $700,000 before buying in. However, he implied that such hesitation could result in missing out yet again, as Bitcoin might then skyrocket to $8,000,000. This prediction highlights Saylor’s belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition and its potential to appreciate significantly over time.The idea of Bitcoin reaching $8 million may seem far-fetched to some, but it aligns with Saylor’s broader perspective on the asset. He views Bitcoin as a superior store of value and a hedge against inflation, with the potential to attract significant capital from traditional assets.This view has placed MicroStrategy at the forefront of Bitcoin’s evolution, now owning 1.1% of the total supply of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, valued at around $14.5 billion, in just four years.The corporation recently announced a $500 million debt sale of convertible notes to increase its Bitcoin holdings. MicroStrategy’s long-term convertible debt strategy ensures that it has enough time to benefit from a potential Bitcoin upside while minimizing the cryptocurrency’s liquidation risk on its balance sheet.At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.07% in the last 24 hours to $66,982.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    MicroStrategy’s Notes Offering to Buy Bitcoin Sees Surprising Twist

    This move follows a previous announcement aimed at raising $500 million, indicating what may be strong investor demand that has allowed MicroStrategy to upsize the offering.The convertible notes will bear an interest rate of 2.25% per annum, payable semi-annually on June 15 and Dec. 15, starting Dec. 15, 2024. They will mature on June 15, 2032, unless repurchased, redeemed or converted earlier. MicroStrategy retains the option to redeem the notes for cash after June 20, 2029, under specific conditions, provided the company’s class A common stock meets certain price thresholds.Investors will have the option to convert the notes into cash, shares of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock or a combination of both. The initial conversion rate is set at approximately 0.4894 MSTR shares per $1,000 principal amount of notes, translating to an initial conversion price of about $2,043.32 per share. This price represents a 35% premium over the company’s recent stock price.MicroStrategy estimates net proceeds from the offering to be around $687.8 million, or up to $786 million if the initial purchasers exercise their option to buy additional notes. The sale will be conducted privately only to qualified institutional investors.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    in Economy

    Raspberry Pi offers London a morsel of hope

    This article is an onsite version of our Disrupted Times newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered three times a week. Explore all of our newsletters hereToday’s top storiesMacron’s centrist alliance is at risk of a complete wipeout, as support for the far right mounts and the far left forms a unity pact.Vladimir Putin has laid out the conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine, which include control of four frontline Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.UK retailer Superdry manages to avoid insolvency after shareholders backed a £10mn lifeline.For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogGood evening.Shares in Raspberry Pi have jumped 14 per cent today on their first day of retail trading, in a small victory for the City of London as it reckons with a tough listings landscape in which companies increasingly desert it for greener, and more lucrative, pastures in New York. But picking London was “not a patriotic decision”, Raspberry Pi chief Eben Upton insists. For a company of their scale, the UK market was more appealing for the computer maker — which started out selling single-board units for hobbyists and enthusiasts only a decade ago. It is part of a spate of successful Cambridge-based tech companies clustered in the so-called “Silicon Fen” — a region around the city that is home to some of Britain’s highest-productivity tech firms. Chip designer Arm, the jewel in the crown of the area, became a source of controversy when its owner SoftBank chose New York over London for its IPO after an unsuccessful charm offensive from British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.Companies are attracted to New York for myriad reasons. Deep-pocketed US investors can help boost equity valuations, creating fertile ground for companies to scale up faster. And the discrepancy is widening. Numerous US tech stocks have a larger market cap than the combined valuation of the UK’s FTSE 100 companies. Other forces have tempted companies to seek a London IPO recently. Chinese fashion group Shein had its bid to list in New York rebuffed after relations between Washington and Beijing turned sour. Chinese hawks in the US senate have urged caution to UK officials about the retailer, and allegations from human rights groups on their “unethical” business practices abound. “London would happily accept being plan B,” argued the FT’s Due Diligence team last month.But the Square Mile is fighting back to restore its primacy. FT deputy editor Patrick Jenkins interviewed Peter Rees, the former planning officer for the City of London, for this weekend’s FT magazine cover story. Rees reckons the Square Mile will need 15 per cent more office space by 2040 to meet demand. London has weathered the storm of Brexit, like it did the market crash a decade prior, as well as bombings and pestilence in previous centuries — and the listed equity market is only a part of what constitutes the modern City, Rees notes.“This is a City that survived the Romans, the Plague, the Great Fire, the Blitz, Big Bang and the banking crash,” said Rees. It seems like it can handle a temporary shortfall of IPOs too.Need to know: UK and Europe economyUK inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest level in three years, providing welcome news to the Bank of England ahead of next week’s rate-setting meeting.Europe must use more tariffs and subsidies to defend its economic interests in the wake of declining competitiveness, which is “threatening our prosperity”, former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi has said.Investors are anticipating the worst week for French stocks since 2022, after Paris’s Cac 40 index plunged more than 5 per cent following President Emmanuel Macron’s snap election announcement on Sunday.Europe Express, the FT’s premium European policy newsletter, will be free to read for all subscribers over the next five weekends, and will cover developments in France over the election period and their wider implications for Europe. Read the newsletter here.Need to know: Global economyThe Bank of Japan has said it would “significantly” scale back its bond-buying programme, marking a change of course in its faltering ultra-loose monetary policy strategy.Donald Trump has pitched slashed taxes, deregulation and higher tariffs, as he attempts to court big business chiefs and win their support for his populist agenda.India’s billionaires face new scrutiny as disquiet about wealth inequality rises, leading Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reassess his relationship with the super-rich as he gears up for his third term in power.The world’s richest families are increasingly mobilising their wealth to combat climate change, rapidly channelling their money into sustainable assets and investments.Need to know: BusinessOpenAI has expanded its international team of lobbyists to influence debate at a time when legislators’ concerns about artificial intelligence mount.Advanced talks are under way between UBS and Beijing State-Owned Assets Management as the Swiss Bank seeks to sell Credit Suisse’s China securities unit.Wells Fargo has discharged several employees for simulating keyboard activity when working from home to “create the impression of active work” — the latest in a series of examples of companies clamping down on non-compliance in a remote working era.Tesla shareholders have approved chief executive Elon Musk’s $56bn pay package. A Delaware court had voided the 2018 package of stock options in January due to worries about the board’s independence.Science round upA plan to loosen regulations on gene-edited crops in Europe has stalled due to an intellectual property dispute.The European Commission has secured more than 40mn doses of a bird flu vaccine to defend against the respiratory virus for the next four years as the continent grapples with outbreaks.Women are more exposed to superbugs than men, “thanks to a complex mix of biological, social, cultural and economic factors”, the FT’s science commentator Anjana Ahuja writes.Some good newsExtensive felling has ravaged Ecuador’s rainforests over the last century. But one unlikely survivor, long presumed extinct, has this week been rediscovered — and stands but 5cm tall.Recommended newslettersWorking it — Discover the big ideas shaping today’s workplaces with a weekly newsletter from work & careers editor Isabel Berwick. Sign up hereOne Must-Read — Remarkable journalism you won’t want to miss. Sign up hereThanks for reading Disrupted Times. If this newsletter has been forwarded to you, please sign up here to receive future issues. And please share your feedback with us at [email protected]. Thank you More