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    Europe must close productivity gap with US to lift growth, says Riksbank chief

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Europe’s new anti-subsidy weapon is powerful but hard to control

    Standard DigitalWeekend Print + Standard Digitalwasnow $85 per monthBilled Quarterly at $199. Complete digital access plus the FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    BOJ board turned hawkish in April, many saw need for more rate hikes-summary

    TOKYO (Reuters) – Bank of Japan board members turned overwhelmingly hawkish at their April policy meeting with many calling for the need to raise interest rates steadily to forestall risks of an inflation overshoot, a summary of opinions at the meeting showed.Some members saw the chance of a faster-than-expected pace of interest rate hikes on heightening prospects of inflation durably staying, or even exceeding, the BOJ’s 2% target, the summary showed on Thursday.”If underlying inflation continues to deviate upward from the baseline scenario against the backdrop of a weaker yen, it is quite possible that the pace of monetary policy normalization will accelerate,” one member was quoted as saying.The debate underscores BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks signalling the chance of multiple rate hikes ahead, and heightens the possibility of an increase in short-term borrowing costs in coming months.At the April meeting, the BOJ kept interest rates near zero and produced fresh quarterly estimates that projected inflation to stay near 2% through early 2027, signalling its readiness to hike borrowing costs later this year.Many of the opinions shown in the summary called for the need to raise interest rates steadily, and consider reducing the size of the BOJ’s bond purchases sometime in the future.One member said the BOJ should consider raising rates moderately to avoid being forced to hike in a “discontinuous and rapid” way once its price target is sustainably met.Another said the BOJ must raise interest rates in a “timely and appropriate manner,” as the likelihood of achieving its growth and price projections heightens, the summary showed.”If the outlook shown in our April quarterly report is realized, our 2% inflation target will be sustainably and stably achieved in about two years and the output gap will be positive. Therefore, there’s a chance our policy interest rate will be higher than the path currently priced in by the market,” another opinion showed.Many market players expect the BOJ to hike interest rates later this year, though they are divided on how quickly borrowing costs might rise thereafter.Other opinions also called for the BOJ to indicate, at some point, its intention of reducing its huge bond buying and start shrinking its balance sheet, the summary showed.”One option is to reduce the Bank’s monthly purchase amount of JGBs — which is currently about 6 trillion yen per month — based on the market’s supply and demand balance to restore market functioning,” one opinion showed.A separate opinion said the BOJ should eventually eliminate its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETF), even if doing so might take a long time, the summary showed.In March, the BOJ ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of its radical stimulus including its bond yield control and purchases of risky assets like ETFs.While the BOJ no longer buys ETFs from the market, it continues to buy roughly 6 trillion yen worth of Japanese government bonds (JGB) per month and has held off on selling bonds or ETFs.(This story has been corrected to fix year to 2027, not 2017, in paragraph 5) More

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    Morning Bid: Markets subdued, China trade to rebound

    (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.Asian markets are set for a sluggish open on Thursday, with mixed U.S. corporate earnings, a firm dollar, and an upward drift in U.S. bond yields dampening investors’ appetite for risky assets. The Japanese yen is back in the spotlight, its latest bout of weakness prompting warnings from Tokyo on Wednesday that, so far at least, seem to have gone unheeded. The dollar is on the front foot and gunning for 156.00 yen. There are a few potential market-moving economic indicators and events on Thursday for investors to get their teeth into, including Chinese trade data, a monetary policy decision from Malaysia, and first quarter GDP figures from the Philippines.Asian markets won’t get much steer from Wall Street, which ended mixed on Wednesday. One source of relief may be oil – Brent crude printed a two-month low below $82 a barrel, and although inflation worries are running high, oil is down around 10% in recent weeks.Japan’s financial heavy hitters were out on Wednesday warning that the yen’s weakness could trigger action from policymakers. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could raise rates again, and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki voiced “strong concern” over the negative impact of a weak yen and repeated Tokyo’s readiness to intervene in the FX market.The warnings have had no effect and the dollar was changing hands at 155.50 yen late on Wednesday, up on the day and back to where it was at the BOJ’s April 26 policy announcement. It is now only two yen away from where it was when Japan carried out its second suspected round of intervention on May 1.On the data front, figures from Beijing are expected to show Chinese imports and exports swung to year-on-year growth in April. But export growth is expected to be modest as factory owners wrestle with weak overseas demand and overcapacity.Trade relations between China and the West remain fraught, with the latest twist coming from U.S. tech giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) saying its sales would take a hit after the U.S. revoked some of the chipmaker’s export licenses for a customer in China.Bank Negara Malaysia will leave its key interest rate at 3.00% for as sixth consecutive meeting and keep it there at least until 2026, despite a weakening currency and a steady inflation outlook, according to a Reuters poll of economists.Figures from Manila, meanwhile, are expected to show that the Philippines’ economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.9% in the first quarter, but quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to halve to 1.0% from 2.1% in the October-December period.The Japanese earnings season rolls on, with major companies including Nissan (OTC:NSANY), Nippon Steel, Panasonic (OTC:PCRFY) and Softbank (OTC:SFTBY) reporting full-year 2024 results on Thursday. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- China trade (April)- Malaysia interest rate decision- Philippines GDP (Q1) (Reporting and Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao) More

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    Exclusive-Panama’s president-elect vows to help fix canal water problems, build major train line

    PANAMA CITY (Reuters) – Panama’s president-elect, Jose Raul Mulino, said on Wednesday he will urge lawmakers to approve a law enabling the Panama Canal to build large water reservoirs in the face of an unprecedented drought that has hit the capacity of the vital waterway. In an interview at his office in Panama City, Mulino said he wants the law, which would grant the waterway permission to operate on land needed for the reservoirs, to be the first approved under his administration. The canal, he added, needs a solution to the lost revenue linked to adverse climate conditions.Mulino also said he wanted to make a major new tourist train – similar to one built in Mexico- a flagship project of his administration. “One of the first decisions I am going to announce is the creation of a national railway secretariat,” Mulino said, adding that studies show the line could help boost tourism. Mulino, a 64-year-old former security minister, won Panama’s election on Sunday with 34% of the vote and said his government would be pro-investment and pro-business, adding that the Central American country would honor its debts, while he vowed to not forget the poor.He won with the help of popular former President Ricardo Martinelli who was barred from running due to a money laundering conviction. Mulino, who served as security minister during Martinelli’s administration from 2009 to 2014, had been Martinelli’s vice presidential candidate and took his place.Fitch ratings in March downgraded Panama’s debt to speculative grade, citing fiscal and governance pressures aggravated by the government-ordered closure of a giant copper mine run by First Quantum Minerals (OTC:FQVLF).Mulino said he was confident Panama would keep its investment grade rating and that ratings agencies would be satisfied with his government’s economic plans for the country.”I am sure that they (ratings agencies) will give their endorsement to what we are going to propose,” he said. “I’m really positive and optimistic.”Mulino also said he has spoken with various world leaders following his win, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.After the talk with Blinken, Mulino expressed his commitment to create a team devoted to streamline the process for U.S. companies to invest in Panama, and also said he agreed with Lula to explore the possibility of Panama’s entering the South American Mercosur trade bloc. More

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    Vietnam’s China ties loom large in US hearing on market economy upgrade

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden’s bid to draw Vietnam closer as a strategic ally clashed with his desire for union workers’ votes on Wednesday as trade lawyers sparred over whether the Commerce Department should upgrade the communist-ruled country to market economy status.The move, opposed by U.S. steelmakers, Gulf Coast shrimpers and American honey farmers, but backed by retailers and some other business groups, would reduce the punitive anti-dumping duties set on Vietnamese imports because of its current status as a non-market economy marked by heavy state influence.Vietnam’s deepening economic ties to China loomed large in arguments on both sides of the issue at a virtual public hearing hosted by the Commerce Department as part of a review and decision due on July 26. Steptoe LLP attorney Eric Emerson (NYSE:EMR), representing Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade, said Vietnam should be graduated to market economy status because it has satisfied the six criteria used by the Commerce Department to judge whether countries have a market-driven economy, from currency convertibility and labor rights to investment openness and resource allocation. “Vietnam has demonstrated that its performance on these statutory factors is as good, or often better, than other countries that have previously been granted market economy status,” he said, citing less government support for state firms than India and more openness to foreign investment than Indonesia, Canada and the Philippines. Vietnam has argued it should be freed of the non-market label because of recent economic reforms, saying retaining the moniker is bad for increasingly close two-way ties that Washington sees as a counterbalance to China. During Biden’s visit to Hanoi last year, the two countries elevated ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has promoted Vietnam as a “friend-shoring” destination to shift U.S. supply chains away from China. Upgrade proponent Samsung Electronics (KS:005930) has become one of the biggest employers in Vietnam because of the country’s market-oriented changes, the South Korean firm’s U.S public policy head Scott Thompson told the hearing.”Vietnam has emerged as a stable, secure supply chain partner of the United States … to the ultimate benefit of the U.S. economy,” Thompson said.CHINESE INFLUENCEBut opponents of upgrading Vietnam – one of 12 economies labeled by Washington as non-market, including China, Russia, North Korea and Azerbaijan – argued that Hanoi’s policy commitments have not been matched by concrete actions and it operates as a planned economy governed by the ruling Communist Party.They also said Vietnam’s industries are highly dependent on investment and imports of inputs from China, many of which are already subject to U.S. anti-dumping duties. Jeffrey Gerrish, a former Trump administration trade official representing Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) Inc, said upgrading would unleash a flood of unfairly traded imports from Vietnam, which he said had become a platform for circumvention of U.S. tariffs by China.”Rather than countering Chinese influence, any such action would serve as a gift to China and Chinese interests,” Gerrish said.Biden has heavily courted union votes in the looming November presidential election, particularly from steelworkers in the swing state of Pennsylvania.He has opposed Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, and called for sharply higher Section 301 tariffs on imports of Chinese steel.TARIFF CUTAt the heart of the Commerce decision is whether to continue the higher tariff rates on Vietnamese goods in anti-dumping cases involving non-market economies. U.S. anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese frozen farmed shrimp are currently 25.76%, while similar duties on shrimp from Thailand, a market economy, are only 5.34%.Assertions of Vietnam’s lawyers that rising Vietnamese wages are the result of labor-management bargaining also came under challenge.Human Rights Watch said Vietnam did not meet basic labor rights standards required for reclassification and that it was false to say that Vietnamese workers can organize unions or that their wages are the result of free bargaining.”Vietnam’s Trade Union Law only allows government-controlled ‘unions,'” it said in a statement after the hearing.Nazak Nikakhtar, a former Commerce Department official in the Trump administration now with the Wiley Rein law firm, said Hanoi employed the same oppressive policies and predatory economic practices as China and was likely to side with its powerful next-door neighbor over the U.S.Emerson, the lawyer representing Hanoi, said denial of market economy status would push Vietnam closer to China. More

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    Bank of England likely to move closer to first rate cut since 2020

    LONDON (Reuters) – The Bank of England is likely to take another step towards its first interest rate cut in four years on Thursday as inflation falls, but will probably be cautious about signalling that a move is imminent.The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark Bank Rate on hold for a sixth meeting in a row at 5.25% – the highest since 2008 – after its May monetary policy discussions.The big question for investors is whether the BoE suggests that a cut could come in June – when the European Central Bank has already signalled it will reduce borrowing costs – or, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, holds out for longer.”We view further caution as reasonable,” said Paula Bejarano Carbo, a National Institute of Economic and Social Research economist, citing still-strong pay increases in Britain’s tight jobs market and uncertainty over conflict in the Middle East.Financial markets are fully pricing a first quarter-point BoE rate cut only in August and another in November or December taking Bank Rate to 4.75%, followed by more cuts in 2025.But investors have bet increasingly in recent days on the possibility of an earlier move. Rate futures markets on Wednesday put a nearly 50-50 chance on a cut in June.Matthew Swannell, UK economist at BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), said the BoE had discovered over the past couple of years that changes in rates were slower to impact inflation than in the past, and that it probably wanted to move relatively quickly to cut them now as headline inflation is likely to dip below its 2% target soon. But the BoE would probably be reluctant to send an explicit signal about the timing of a first cut on Thursday, he said.”We don’t expect to open the minutes and see them giving ECB-style guidance,” Swannell said.He predicts Bank Rate will be lowered three times to 4.5% by the end of 2024, starting in June.An early move would be welcome for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has told voters that the economy is turning a corner but is struggling to rein in the big opinion poll lead for the opposition Labour Party with an election expected this year.MESSAGES FOR MARKETSIf the BoE does signal an acceleration towards a rate cut, it could come in the vote tally on Thursday.Members of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will probably vote 8-1 for a second time in a row to keep Bank Rate on hold, according to most economists polled by Reuters.But some said Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden might join Swati Dhingra who has so far cast the solitary vote for a cut.Ramsden said last month inflation might prove weaker than the BoE’s forecasts although Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that rate cuts remained some way off.Wage growth and services price inflation of around 6% remain higher than in the United States or euro zone, even though British economic growth is more sluggish.There might also be a message in the BoE’s new inflation projection: if it lowers the two- and three-year forecasts significantly it would be interpreted by investors as a signal that they are pricing in too few interest rate cuts.The BoE’s inflation forecasts are based on market pricing in the run-up to its MPC meetings.Bailey and other officials will hold a press conference at 1130 GMT, half an hour after the rate decision is announced along with minutes of May’s meeting and its latest forecasts. More

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    UK property surveyors see pick-up in house sales later in 2024

    LONDON (Reuters) – British property surveyors expect an increase in property sales later this year, despite an ongoing drag from high borrowing costs, as the number of homes being put up for sale rose last month at the fastest pace since September 2020.The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Thursday that its main house price balance held at -5 in April, unchanged from March, as waning chances of an early Bank of England rate cut nudged up mortgage costs.But there were signs of a rising volume of transactions, chiming with Bank of England data last week which showed a 20% annual rise in mortgage approvals in March to an 18-month high.RICS’ aggregate sales balance rose to its highest since May 2021 in April, although the net balance for new buyer enquiries fell below zero for the first time in four months.”A modest back up in mortgage pricing has contributed to the flatlining in the buyer enquiries metric over the past month,” RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn said.”That said, there is still a strong perception that activity in the market will pick up in the latter part of the year and into 2025, irrespective of any political uncertainty around the general election.”House purchases fell sharply after former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ budget plans spooked lending markets in September 2022, and prices drifted lower following a 25% rise since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.Truss’ successor, Rishi Sunak, must hold a national election no later than January 2025.Mortgage lender Halifax said on Tuesday that prices had plateaued since the start of the year.Economists expect the BoE to keep its main interest rate at a 16-year high of 5.25% later on Thursday, but many think a first rate cut could come as soon as next month as consumer price inflation returns to its 2% target.However, the BoE has worries about ongoing big rises in wages and services prices that could push inflation higher, and financial markets only expect it to make two quarter-point rate cuts this year, starting in August. More