Aurelia Butler

The $112.5 billion hedge fund said the research will help governments across the globe make informed decisions about potential donations to the World Bank’s International Development Agency (IDA) fund.Nir Bar Dea, Bridgewater’s chief executive officer, said the research will focus on Africa, where many countries have received proceeds from the IDA fund in recent years.Bar Dea said Bridgewater is focusing on the continent because of its shifting demographic profile. The hedge fund estimates that the sub-Saharan African population is projected to account for a quarter of the world’s working-age population within a few decades, and will have more people of working age than China in about ten years.He added it was necessary “to massively accelerate strategic investments from the public sector in things like access to electricity and health care,” he said in an interview.As a macro hedge fund, which trades different types of assets from many countries, Bridgewater has used economic research to place bets for almost 50 years. Its returns since it was founded by investor Ray Dalio placed it as the fourth most profitable fund according to LCH Investments, a fund-of-funds firm that is part of the Edmond de Rothschild Group and tracks hedge funds’ annual returns to calculate their cumulative lifetime gains. Bar Dea declined to say the percentage of Bridgewater’s money that is currently invested in African assets.Global Citizen will use Bridgewater’s research to raise awareness of the continent’s needs. This, in turn, should help the World Bank’s fundraising, said Hugh Evans, Global Citizen’s co-founder and CEO.Evans said the research will be available for Global Citizen’s 12 million members and G20 countries, which are donor nations of the IDA fund. More

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The yen jumped against its peers on Monday after it slid past 160 per dollar earlier in the session, with traders citing dollar-selling intervention by Japanese banks as a trigger for its bounce. Meanwhile, European stocks and U.S. futures inched higher as investors looked towards the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday and U.S. jobs data on Friday.The Japanese currency strengthened about 2% from the initial 159 per dollar level in a matter of a few minutes during Asia hours, as some traders said they had seen selling of dollars onshore.The rapid move came just a few hours after the yen tumbled to the weaker side of 160 per dollar for the first time in 34 years.”It does look like intervention,” said Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING. “The recipe, hitting that mark of 160, then it looks like a big chunk of intervention delivered at 5 a.m. (London time)… it just makes sense at this point.”He added: “It’s a very busy week for markets. I suspect that they might have intervened today and then hoping that data in the U.S. and the Fed does not turn too much in favour for the dollar.”The dollar was last down 1.36% at 156.17 yen, after falling to an intraday low of 154.54 in early European trading.Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda told reporters: “I won’t comment now” when asked if authorities had intervened.In the broader markets, U.S. stock futures were higher, with those for the S&P 500 up 0.21% and for the Nasdaq up 0.31%.Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was 0.23% higher after rising 1.7% last week. Germany’s DAX was flat while the British FTSE 100 rose 0.5% to trade at fresh record highs.Investors in Europe were digesting the latest national euro zone inflation data, including Spanish figures which showed price growth ticked up to 3.4% in April. Data for the bloc as a whole is due on Tuesday.Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index rose 0.81% overnight while China’s CSI 300 climbed 1.11%.”Sentiment is upbeat at the start of the week, fuelled by relief that inflationary pressures in the U.S. aren’t as bad as feared, and hopes return that a ceasefire could be negotiated in the Middle East,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.Markets rallied on Friday as Big Tech gains lifted Wall Street and closely watched inflation data came in as expected on a month-on-month basis.Investors’ focus on Wednesday will be on whether the Fed strikes a more cautious tone about rate cuts after a string of stronger-than-expected data derailed market expectations on the timing of the first reduction. U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs data will give more clues about the economy on Friday.Market pricing shows traders now expect the first rate cut to come in November, rather than in June seen only a few weeks ago, with 35 basis points worth of easing priced in this year. The prospect of rates staying higher for longer has lifted U.S. bond yields and boosted the dollar, although both were lower on Monday. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were down 5 basis points at 4.624% after they scaled a six-month high of 4.739% last week.Against the dollar, the euro rose 0.22% to $1.0715. The dollar index fell 0.25% to 105.69, though was headed for a monthly gain of 1%.Brent crude fell 0.4% to $89.17 a barrel as news of a potential Gaza ceasefire eased fears of supply constraints. [O/R]A Hamas delegation will visit Cairo on Monday for talks aimed at securing a ceasefire, a Hamas official told Reuters on Sunday, as mediators stepped up efforts to reach a deal ahead of an expected Israeli assault on the southern city of Rafah. More

Contract drug manufacturers and equipment makers witnessed their biotech clients cut back on spending in 2023 amid rising interest rates, but some analysts have said that funding could stabilize this year after a strong 2023 for regulatory approvals in the U.S.In February, Revvity said the pressures will continue over at least the next couple of quarters, with expectations for stabilization in the second half of the year.The company, which generates more than half of its sales outside the United States, lowered its annual revenue forecast to between $2.76 billion and $2.82 billion from its previous range of $2.79 billion to $2.85 billion due to a strong dollar.Analysts on average estimate revenue for the period to be $2.82 billion, according to LSEG data.It also reaffirmed its annual adjusted profit forecast of $4.55 to $4.75 per share.For the quarter ended March 31, Revvity reported total sales of $649.92 million, compared with analysts’ expectations of $646.84 million.Revenue from its diagnostics segment, which provides testing tools such as for genetic screening, was flat year-on-year at $347.09 million, compared with estimates of $344.19 million.Revvity reported first-quarter adjusted profit of 98 cents per share compared with estimates of 93 cents per share.Formerly known as PerkinElmer (NYSE:RVTY), the company in 2022 divested from three of its businesses to focus on life sciences and diagnostics units under its new name Revvity. More

BUDAPEST/PRAGUE (Reuters) – With steep falls in inflation over and the timing of the first Federal Reserve rate cut pushed back by strong U.S. data, a period of carefree rate easing appears to be over for central Europe’s rate-setters now facing a growing list of concerns.A collapse in price growth from last year’s double-digit rates in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary allowed central banks to reduce borrowing costs sharply, helping their economies back to growth from recession or stagflation.March headline inflation sank to 2% in Poland and the Czech Republic and 3.6% in Hungary, which experienced the worst inflationary surge in the European Union with levels exceeding 25% in the first quarter of last year.But economists believe the current lows are unsustainable and project a rebound in price growth to around 5% by the end of 2024 in both Poland and Hungary, as helpful base effects fade and the Polish government unwinds cost-of-living subsidies.Amid risks from higher fuel prices, weaker exchange rates, persistently strong services inflation and the prospect of the region’s economic recovery gaining traction, central bankers have grown cautious about cutting rates further.”The situation has changed,” economists at Allianz (ETR:ALVG) said. “As markets have dialled back their expectations for cuts in advanced economies, they have also done the same for emerging markets.”An analysis of changes in market pricing based on JP Morgan figures shows investors have priced out about 100 basis points of rate cuts in the Czech Republic and Poland by December compared with end-2024 levels expected in early January.The shift is the largest in Hungary, with investors slashing the scope of expected easing by nearly 200 bps. Late-April market pricing showed just 35 bps of cuts in Poland’s main rate by the end of 2024, less than a third of what was priced in at the start of the year.VULNERABLE CURRENCIESWhile 2024 inflation is seen hovering around 2% in the Czech Republic, by far the lowest in central Europe, some rate-setters there too have expressed concerns over real wage growth and currency weakness as the economy begins to show signs of life.The region’s currencies, like other emerging market assets, were hammered by data showing the strength of the U.S. economy, which boosted the dollar and pushed back investor bets on the timing of the first Federal Reserve rate cut to September – or later.The Czech crown and the Hungarian forint are both in the red for 2024, due in part to their narrowing rate differential, with the ripple effects of the dollar’s rally knocking even Poland’s zloty off the four-year-highs it scaled early this month.”CZK and PLN are among the most vulnerable emerging market currencies to persisting inflation, U.S. economic outperformance, and higher repricing of the Fed funds rate path,” strategists at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) said, citing the currencies’ strong ties with the euro.Last week Czech National Bank Governor Ales Michl said even if the bank cuts rates on Thursday, with analysts projecting another 50 bps reduction, the CNB would take a “very cautious” approach to rate easing beyond that point.”The more cautious approach of monetary institutions to rate cuts in view of possible reflation is evident on both sides of the Atlantic,” ING economists said. “After all, the European Central Bank is watching the Federal Reserve, and the CNB is watching the ECB.”Hungary’s central bank has also flagged a cautious approach to further easing, with Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag all but ruling out rate cuts in the second half after the bank lowered its base rate by just 50 bps last week, the smallest step in an easing cycle launched last May.Another 50-bps Czech rate cut in June, which economists think is on the cards, would take the Czech rate within a whisker of the European Central Bank’s main rate by June, when the ECB is widely expected to start cutting rates. How fast the ECB cuts rates after that is less certain, with markets having scaled back bets on euro zone rate cuts in the second half of the year.”While we continue to expect the (Czech) policy rate to reach 3.50% by the end of the year, we see risks to our call as being skewed to the upside,” Morgan Stanley economist Georgi Deyanov said, citing currency weakness and possible shifts in ECB rate expectations as factors in coming months. More