Aurelia Butler

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Peter Schiff Blasts Mike Novogratz’s Bitcoin Bull Run Prediction

    In response to Novogratz’s statement that Bitcoin ETF buyers, many of whom are newcomers to the crypto space, will act as long-term holders, Schiff dismissed this notion, characterizing them instead as mere opportunistic traders. He suggested that these newcomers, whom he labeled as “Johnny-come-lately” buyers, lack the conviction of true believers in Bitcoin and are merely testing the waters. Schiff implied that these investors are likely to flee at the first sign of unfavorable market conditions.Schiff’s skepticism extends beyond Novogratz’s prediction to broader implications for Bitcoin-related equities. He pointed to a downturn in various Bitcoin-related stocks, including Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN)’s COIN, GLXY, MSTR, WGMI, MARA, BITF and HIVE, questioning why these assets are struggling despite the purported bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin ETFs.The critique from Peter Schiff adds fuel to the ongoing debate over the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the potential impact of institutional investment vehicles like ETFs. While Novogratz remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, Schiff’s critical viewpoint once again highlights the divergent opinions within financial circles regarding the crypto’s long-term prospects and investment appeal.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    in Economy

    Crises are eating into development funding

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The World Bank and IMF spring meetings are taking place this week in the shadow of rising geopolitical uncertainty. Upcoming elections in the US, ongoing conflict in Ukraine and now the eruption of hostilities between Israel and Iran are all weighing on policymakers’ minds. But amid these crises, the international community must not lose sight of the pressing need to keep funding global development, health and climate initiatives.These issues have started to take a back seat. New data from the OECD, the rich-country think-tank, shows that advanced nations’ official development assistance budgets have increased in recent years. But the majority of that rise represents funding for Ukraine and the cost of hosting refugees from Ukraine and elsewhere; more than a quarter of UK ODA last year went towards asylum costs. The amount allocated for multilateral organisations, including the World Bank, IMF, and health funds such as Gavi, the immunisation initiative, has only increased slightly overall, and even shrank in two of the last six years. Moreover, low-income countries’ access to finance has come under pressure. A wave of countries has been flirting with default, as high rates have locked them out of bond markets. China, once the largest bilateral creditor to developing countries, has stepped back from funding, instead starting to draw back capital as loans come due. China and private creditors have also confounded the Paris Club’s efforts to restructure debt. This has forced countries into a difficult choice: endure a lengthy default like Zambia, or tighten already strained budgets like Nigeria. As a result, many poorer countries have been unable to invest adequately in public welfare and climate mitigation. This has raised pressures on already impoverished households in nations that are also less resilient to global shocks, creating regional instability and driving more migration.Multilateral institutions are constrained. The World Bank’s International Development Association — the arm that offers financing to low-income countries — can raise funding via capital markets. But IDA’s chief fundraiser recently told the Financial Times that its fiscal headroom was shrinking due to high borrowing costs. The IMF’s equivalent, the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, has also run down its capital amid unprecedented levels of lending. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, who will be re-elected this year, has built a strong partnership with the World Bank’s Ajay Banga. Both leaders should convey a clear message this week: the global community cannot afford to be distracted. They should first push for more funding. Banga has already called for the “largest ever” funding haul for IDA this year. Georgieva should make similar calls for PRGT ahead of its funding next year, as these are the funds with the most latitude to help low-income countries. They should also continue to collaborate with credit rating agencies to see if they can better leverage their existing capital base.Second, they should encourage donors to explore innovative financing strategies. This includes using special drawing rights — a reserve asset created by the IMF — to issue bonds on behalf of developing countries, or making it easier to transfer them. Finally, they should focus on improving existing processes. In a curtain-raising speech, Georgieva foreshadowed that adjustments to the G20’s Common Framework for debt treatments would be a focus this week. This includes adding stricter timelines, and ensuring a more standardised treatment of different types of creditors, which has been a sticking point for China in recent restructurings.Rising tensions in the Middle East coinciding with the spring meetings this week illustrate the spending dilemmas facing donor countries. But the imperative is clear: pay up, or things will only get worse. More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    These factors, not Bitcoin halving, will impact crypto prices – Needham

    Needham & Company observes a general optimism among Bitcoin miners, with projections showing that if Bitcoin prices remain around $60-70k, the halving could have minimal impact on their EBITDA margins.However, a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices could hit higher-cost producers and those with leveraged positions in Bitcoin holdings hard. Companies like Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) Holdings could be particularly affected by such a downturn.For companies like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD), the report suggests varied outcomes based on different Bitcoin price scenarios post-halving. In bullish scenarios, where Bitcoin could rally above $80k, both publicly traded platforms are expected to see the most positive effects.  Conversely, in bearish scenarios with Bitcoin dropping to around $45k, Coinbase and Robinhood might experience limited negative impacts, along with Applied Digital and CompoSecure to a lesser extent.Needham provides a historical analysis of price and hash rate performances during previous halvings, noting that while there is typically initial volatility, both metrics tend to stabilize and grow post-halving. The report predicts a slight dip in the hash rate right after the 2024 halving, but expects it to recover and begin trending upwards shortly thereafter.For Bitcoin mining companies, the report highlights a preference for low-cost producers such as Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR), Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT), and Bitdeer Technologies. This is particularly notable if Bitcoin’s price remains above the $60-$65k range, effectively mitigating the risks associated with the halving for these firms.However, should the hash rate increase significantly or Bitcoin prices drop, high-cost producers with large Bitcoin holdings, like Marathon Digital Holdings, could face outsized negative impacts.Post-halving, the estimated cash costs to mine one Bitcoin will range from $36k to $52.7k, which is well below the current price levels, indicating that mining can remain profitable under current price assumptions. Moreover, the report considers various outcomes of the halving event, including a potential “sell the news” situation where bitcoin might slightly decline in value. In more severe downturn scenarios, such as a geopolitical crisis leading to a bear market, substantial negative effects are foreseen particularly for companies heavily reliant on bitcoin-related revenue.Despite these predictions, Needham does not foresee major impacts on Coinbase and Robinhood from the halving event itself. The research references the modest volume increase seen during the 2020 halving which was overshadowed by larger market movements, such as the March COVID crash and DeFi summer peak later that year. Current global events, like the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, are expected to continue causing fluctuations in crypto trading volumes, possibly affecting the market more than halving.The report highlights that while the 2024 halving is considered to be relatively de-risked for the covered bitcoin miners, each successive halving could erode miners’ margins further and pose a long-term threat to their business model.The report outlines several risks for bitcoin miners including:Bitdeer Technologies: Faces challenges from broader macroeconomic uncertainties, such as wars and geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact cryptocurrency and risk markets. Other risks include fewer or slower-than-expected interest rate cuts and increased regulatory hurdles surrounding bitcoin mining. Additionally, a surge in mining competition from entities that can access cheaper power could pose a threat.Cipher Mining: Could be impacted by a drop in bitcoin prices below $20,000, unfavorable cryptocurrency regulations, natural disasters disrupting operations, strict environmental regulations, supply chain disruptions, and deteriorating macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.Hut 8: Might see its plans constrained by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions or fewer rate cuts than expected. A fall in bitcoin prices or rising machine costs could limit HUT’s ability to invest in capital expenditures necessary to lower production costs.Digital Holdings: Shares similar risks with CIFR, including price drops, regulatory challenges, operational disruptions from natural disasters, and worsening market conditions.Riot Blockchain: Is particularly vulnerable to unfavorable cryptocurrency regulations, natural disasters, stringent environmental laws, higher than expected power costs, declines in bitcoin spot prices, and supply chain issues. More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    2 crypto mining stocks to consider amid recent Bitcoin price weakness – JPMorgan

    A new report from J.P. Morgan sheds light on the perspectives of CEOs from major Bitcoin mining companies as they approach the major event. The document captures a general sense of optimism among industry leaders from companies like Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR), Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT), and Bitdeer Technologies, despite the upcoming challenges that the halving poses to mining profitability and operational efficiency.“We think recent weakness offers an attractive entry point, and are especially bullish on RIOT and IREN, which we think offer attractive relative valuations,” analysts wrote in a note.The report details that CEOs are “increasingly investing in advanced technological capabilities, including AI, to optimize mining efficiency and energy consumption.” Contrary to popular belief, this upcoming halving probably won’t lead to a big drop in the network’s hashrate. After the first three Bitcoin halvings, the hashrate fell by 25%, 11%, and 25%. It seems a lot of analysts and miners are expecting—or maybe even hoping for—a similar decrease this time around.Also, the hashrate is expected to recover quickly from this minor dip. In the past three halvings, the network bounced back to its pre-halving hashrate levels in an average of just 57 days.The document also quotes insights on the regulatory environment: “CEOs are closely monitoring regulatory developments, which are increasingly seen as a significant factor influencing market dynamics and investment decisions.”Crypto miners’ executives are implementing strategies to increase operational efficiency, expand mining capacity, and secure advantageous energy contracts to offset the expected decrease in mining rewards. Furthermore, there is a focus on leveraging technological advancements, with several companies investing in AI and other innovative technologies to maintain a competitive edge.The report also points out the financial strength of these companies, observing that many have kept their balance sheets healthy with minimal debt. This strong financial footing puts them in a good position to cope with the economic effects of the halving. Moreover, these companies are diversifying their investment strategies, venturing into other cryptocurrencies, and exploring blockchain-related projects beyond just traditional Bitcoin mining.Regarding the economic landscape, one section notes, “The halving event is seen as both a challenge and an opportunity, with potential for market consolidation providing opportunities for well-capitalized firms to expand their market share.” More

  • 138 Shares129 Views

    in Cryptocurrency

    Top technical analyst sees Bitcoin price pullback extending to below $60k

    This decline comes amidst a slowdown in inflows to Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which had previously been a major source of upward pressure. The pullback has intensified over the weekend, coinciding with a rise in geopolitical tensions. These global uncertainties have traditionally caused investors to seek safer havens, potentially leading some to move away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.LunarCrush analyst Joe Vezzani told Investing.com that “Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often see outsized reactions to breaking news on weekends before traditional markets open.”“While the initial response can be significant, historically these moves are often retraced once investors have time to fully digest new information,” he stated.Furthermore, Vezzani highlighted the growing maturity and resilience of digital asset markets, which are becoming “increasingly efficient at absorbing geopolitical shocks.” “Bitcoin, in particular, is cementing its status as a bellwether for investor sentiment and a key indicator to watch when unexpected events rattle global markets,” he added.Even so, it’s crucial to view this pullback in the context of Bitcoin’s historical cycles. The cryptocurrency is known for its halving events, which occur roughly every four years and significantly reduce the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation. This programmed scarcity has historically been a major driver of price increases.  However, the post-halving period can also witness periods of consolidation or correction, as the market adjusts to the reduced supply. This cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements provides a sense of stability and predictability, helping investors make informed decisions.In a note to clients this week, investment research analysts at Fairlead Strategies said the recent decline in the Bitcoin price could lead to the price moving towards support at $57,800. “Given [the] increased short-term risk, we assume the weekly stochastics will confirm their downturn in an intermediate-term setback,” said the firm. “This warrants a shift to a neutral intermediate-term bias with cloud-based support intact.”However, there is also a potential further downside in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Fairlead feels that if the cloud indicator does not hold, secondary support is near the $51.500 level, defined by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the cyclical uptrend.However, Fairlead clarifies that, in their view, the pullback is just an interruption in the Bitcoin uptrend, not the start of a bearish reversal, given the recent breakout above the 2021 high. As a result, they see a long-term target of $80,600 coming into play.   More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Certo Announces Launch of its Testnet: Pioneering the Future of p2p lending and Stablecoins

    Certo is excited to announce the official launch of its highly anticipated testnet, marking a significant milestone in the development of its groundbreaking p2p lending project. Designed to revolutionize digital transactions by offering unparalleled security, transparency, and stability of funds collateralized by Real-World Assets (RWAs), Certo’s testnet is now open for community participation and feedback.Setting New Standards for Digital CurrencyThe testnet phase is crucial for Certo, aiming to rigorously test the network’s capabilities, assess its performance under various conditions, and ensure that the final launch meets the highest standards of efficiency and reliability. Certo is committed to redefining the landscape of digital finance, and the testnet is a pivotal step towards achieving this vision.Test net Objectives- Performance Assessment: Evaluate the scalability, speed, and stability of the network, ensuring it can handle transactions swiftly and reliably.- Community Feedback: Collect valuable insights from the community to refine and enhance the user experience based on real-world interaction.- Smart Contract Testing: Test the functionality and reliability of smart contracts on the network, ensuring they operate as intended without issues.Roadmap and MilestonesThe launch of the testnet marks the start of an exciting journey, with the following key milestones outlined in the project’s roadmap:1. Testnet Launch: Opening the network for user participation and initial testing.2. Feature Rollouts: Gradual rollout of additional features, including advanced smart contract capabilities and cross-chain integrations.3. Mainnet Transition: After comprehensive testing and optimization, transitioning to the mainnet launch, signifying the full operational launch of Certo.How to Participate and Resources AvailableCommunity involvement is instrumental in the testnet phase. Interested users, developers, and enthusiasts are encouraged to participate by following these steps:1. Visit Certo website to connect to the testnet.2. Explore our detailed guide on interacting with the testnet, using a faucet, and more here.3. Join the Certo Discord to connect with other testers, share feedback, and get support.4. Stay informed about updates and progress through our official channels on X and sign up to our regular email updates on our website.About CertoCerto is at the forefront of developing a secure, stable, and scalable platform, aiming to bridge the gap between traditional fiat currencies and the digital economy. With a focus on security, transparency, and community-driven development, Certo seeks to provide a robust foundation for financial transactions worldwide.ContactName – CertoEmail – [email protected] – https://certo.finance/Certo Testnet – https://test.certo.finance/ContactCerto [email protected] article was originally published on Chainwire More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    US Stocks to Affect Bitcoin (BTC) and Crypto Heavily After Today

    But why do stock market moves even affect Bitcoin ? The reason is quite straightforward: it is all about investor mood. When big stock indexes like the S&P 500 falter, it can make investors across all markets feel nervous. They might start thinking, “If stocks are risky right now, maybe I should be careful with my other investments, like Bitcoin.”Now, looking at Bitcoin’s price, we can see it is at a pivotal point. It is wrestling with the $60,000 mark, which is a significant psychological level. If it can stay above this point and climb higher, the next key level to watch would be around $67,000, where Bitcoin has struggled before. If it falls below $60,000, the next support is at the $50,000 area, which might catch a dropping price.In the past, we have seen Bitcoin do its own thing, sometimes ignoring the stock market entirely. But more recently, as more investors who typically invest in stocks are getting into crypto, Bitcoin’s price movements are starting to echo the stock market more closely.The link between the two markets suggests that today’s stock market drop could lead to cautious trading in the crypto world. If stock markets continue to slide, Bitcoin may feel the pressure, too. Conversely, if the stock market finds its footing and starts to rise again, it could give Bitcoin the boost it needs to challenge its previous highs.As investors in both camps watch these movements, the coming days could be pivotal. The key takeaway? Movement of assets on the U.S. market still greatly affects Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.This article was originally published on U.Today More

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    in Economy

    US to grow at double the rate of G7 peers this year, says IMF

    The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts, as the strength of the world’s biggest economy rocks international markets.Strong household spending and investment will help propel US growth to 2.7 per cent this year according to the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook.The figure is higher than the 2.5 per cent estimated for 2023 and represents a 0.6 percentage point upgrade on the previous forecast. The projections highlight the US economy’s role as the driver of global growth, as investors across the world scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.The IMF said the next best performer in the G7 this year would be Canada, with growth of 1.2 per cent.It added that Germany’s expansion would be the weakest among the G7 at 0.2 per cent. Japan is forecast to experience growth of 0.9 per cent, while the UK is set to expand by just 0.5 per cent after flatlining in 2023. You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.Global stock markets sank and Asian currencies were hit by a rising dollar on Tuesday, following a Wall Street sell-off prompted by strong US retail sales figures suggesting the Fed may cut rates this year by less than previously thought.Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, told the Financial Times that, while the “baseline” was still three quarter-point cuts this year, the Fed could be thrown off course by the surging US economy. “If the inflation pressures persist beyond what we have right now, in the US in particular, then we would expect that they would have later cuts and maybe fewer cuts,” he said.The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed 1.5 per cent lower, its worst day since July. The US S&P 500 was little changed following the previous day’s losses. Shifting US rate expectations also hit currency markets, pushing the Indian rupee to a record low and the Indonesian rupiah to its weakest in four years against the dollar.Gourinchas added that Fed rate cuts could be delayed from this summer to the fourth quarter — potentially after November’s presidential election — if inflation overshot IMF expectations. US President Joe Biden is hoping that US economic strength will help him overcome his poll deficit against Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.An FT-Michigan Ross poll this week showed that the number of registered voters who approve of Biden’s handling of the economy is rising but remains a minority and nearly four in five expressed deep concern about inflation. Any delay in Fed rate cuts may also hit the president’s re-election hopes.At present, investors expect the Fed to cut rates by September and possibly more than once by the end of the year. The recent bumper US growth has helped the global economy avoid a long-feared hard landing following interest rate rises. But strong demand has also pushed up price pressures, in contrast with the UK and eurozone.The IMF said US inflation would continue to recede but lifted its forecast for this year to 2.9 per cent, above the 2.4 per cent predicted for the eurozone and 2.5 per cent in the UK.Gourinchas said the European Central Bank and the Bank of England could cut rates sooner because they did not face such a “strong demand-driven component of inflation”. Laying out its projections as central bank governors and finance ministers attend joint IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the fund found that global economic activity had proven “surprisingly resilient” even after central banks boosted rates to bear down on inflation.But it also warned of risks to the global recovery, notably the possibility of fresh increases in commodity prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. The broader picture is still one of tepid expansion by historical standards, with world growth projected to remain at 3.2 per cent this year and next, in line with 2023’s estimate. The IMF said the long-term consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, weak productivity growth and increasing “geoeconomic fragmentation” were hampering expansion.  The cause of disinflation in advanced economies was being aided by a stronger than forecast rise in employment, in part because of inflows of migrants, the IMF said. There had been faster growth in foreign-born rather than domestic workforces since 2021 in economies including Canada, the eurozone, the UK and the US, it found.Among other leading economies, the IMF predicted China’s growth would slow this year to 4.6 per cent from 5.2 per cent in 2023, while forecasts for India, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, have been upgraded to 6.8 per cent for this year.Russia received one of the biggest upgrades, with growth now projected to be 3.2 per cent this year, 0.6 percentage points higher than previously expected, followed by growth of 1.8 per cent in 2025. The IMF’s doubling of its forecast for Russian growth in its January outlook fed concerns among G7 countries that sanctions were failing to damage Vladimir Putin’s war economy. Gourinchas said Russian expansion was being partly driven by strong oil export revenues, coupled with firm private investment. “Domestic demand is very strong,” he said. “The sanctions are still degrading and having an impact gradually on the Russian economy, but the economy itself is quite resilient.” More