Aurelia Butler

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.There is no shortage of potential market-moving events in Asia on Tuesday, from key economic indicators to the start of China’s eagerly-awaited National People’s Congress (NPC), but current momentum is likely to limit any potential downside.The rally in world stocks and risky assets more broadly – bitcoin is leaping toward new all-time highs – paused for breath on Monday, but not before the leading U.S., Japanese and European benchmark indexes all hit fresh peaks.Rising U.S. bonds yields? Strong economic data? Weak economic data? Hawkish shifts in Fed expectations? It doesn’t seem to matter. Equities and risk assets either power on, or pause only briefly before going up through the gears again.The Nikkei on Monday burst above 40,000 points for the first time ever, taking its gains this year to a remarkable 20%. Chinese stocks tacked on 0.4% ahead of the NPC, and have now fallen only twice in the last 14 sessions.Although U.S. bond yields on Monday reversed some of Friday’s steep decline, the S&P 500 climbed to a record high, as did European stocks. Equity pullbacks are shallow, and the bigger picture continues to be dominated by optimism surrounding tech and AI. Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the S&P 500 is up more than 20% since October, and is in one of its best winning streaks on record.The Asian economic and political calendar on Tuesday is packed with potential market-moving risk – inflation from the Philippines, Thailand and Tokyo, services PMIs from several countries including China, GDP from South Korea, and the annual session of China’s NPC. Much of the focus on Tuesday will be on Beijing, and how China plans to tackle a property crisis, deepening deflation, fragile stock markets, and mounting local government debt woes.All that, while achieving annual economic growth of around 5%, which is what economists expect Premier Li Qiang to announce. It is a huge challenge, but in managing expectations, perhaps Beijing will opt not to go firing policy bazookas.Core inflation in Japan’s capital, meanwhile, is expected to have re-accelerated in February to 2.5% from a near-two year low of 1.6% in January, above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.The BOJ is in the process of winding down years of ultra-loose policy, and some economists think it could exit negative interest rates later this month. The Tokyo inflation data will be closely-watched, not least by yen traders. The yen is back below 150.00 per dollar, fueling speculation that Japanese authorities might soon intervene to support the currency. Tokyo doesn’t target any particular exchange rate level, but it will be well aware of the latest U.S. futures data that shows hedge funds and speculators are holding their largest net short yen position in over six years. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- China National People’s Congress- China Caixin Services PMI (February)- Japan Tokyo inflation (February) (By Jamie McGeever; editing by Bill Berkrot) More

(Reuters) – Defaults among U.S. corporate junk debt issuers reached a post-pandemic high in February, JPMorgan said in a new research report.Nine junk-rated borrowers either filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy or missed their interest payments on a total of $5.97 billion in loans and bonds last month, JPMorgan noted.Three other companies opted for a distressed exchange on a total $3.96 billion in loans and bonds, the report added. February was only the second time in 11 months that the volume of defaults outweighed distressed exchanges. Since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in 2022, companies facing default have increasingly turned to out-of-court distressed exchanges, credit rating agency Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) said in a recent report.Last month’s $9.9 billion in combined defaults and distressed exchanges surpassed 2023’s monthly average of $7.2 billion, JPMorgan said. It was the highest combined volume of the two since $16.9 billion posted in April 2023.Moody’s and other ratings agencies anticipate the default rate among junk-rated issuers will rise this quarter before leveling out by the end of 2024. More

Below are some of the details from the 1,050-page bill.JUSTICE DEPARTMENTHouse of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson touted the fact that the legislation bars the Justice Department “from targeting parents exercising their right to free speech before school boards.”A section of the measure “prohibits the Department from targeting or investigating parents who peacefully protest at school board meetings and are not suspected of engaging in unlawful activity.”Republicans took issue with a department memo issued in 2021 that said it was using its authority to discourage a spike in harassment, threats and intimidation of school officials. Attorney General Merrick Garland has defended the memo, saying authorities never used the FBI against parents.ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCYJohnson said the measure imposed deep cuts on the Environmental Protection Agency, while Democrats said the bill rejected drastic cuts to environmental programs.The bill cuts funding to the EPA to $9.16 billion, down from $10.1 billion in the previous fiscal year. But it maintains staffing levels and funding for several programs.BUREAU OF ALCOHOL, TOBACCO AND FIREARMSJohnson said Republicans had won deep cuts to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. The bill cuts funding to the ATF by about 7%. Much of that decrease stems from the fact that there are not construction expenses included for the bureau in the current fiscal year.DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRSBoth Democrats and Republicans touted the fact that the legislation fully funded veterans’ healthcare. The bill boosts funding for veterans’ healthcare by more than $2 billion, including for mental health, women’s health and caregivers.FOOD AIDDemocrats touted the fact the legislation fully funded a key food aid program. The bill boosted funding for the program by about $1 billion.RENTAL ASSISTANCEDemocrats highlighted funds for rental assistance and for programs to help build housing. The legislation included money for a program to produce housing, housing vouchers and other rental assistance. More

A median forecast of 15 analysts predicted that the annual headline inflation rate would settle at 4.42% in February, down from 4.88% in January and continuing the downward trend that was briefly interrupted at the end of last year.The closely watched core inflation index, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is seen dropping to 4.62% in the month, its lowest level since June 2021.Both rates, however, are still above the central bank’s target range of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point. Last month the monetary authority, also known as Banxico, again held the benchmark interest rate at a historic high of 11.25% but hinted that a rate cut could be on the table in upcoming meetings.A recent poll of economists by financial group Citibanamex showed that most estimate an initial rate cut to happen when Banxico’s board meets on March 21.On a month-over-month basis, Mexico’s consumer prices were seen rising 0.11% in February, with core inflation up 0.49%.Mexico’s national statistics agency will publish official inflation data for February on Thursday. More

(Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court is seeking $19.4 million in federal funds to bolster security for the nine justices and assign protection of their homes to its own police force rather than the U.S. Marshals Service, citing “evolving” risks faced by the nation’s top judicial body.The proposal was included as part of an overall $9.4 billion budget request posted online last week to provide funding for the Supreme Court and the rest of the federal judiciary in the fiscal year that begins on Oct. 1.That funding would include $5.8 million to expand the security activities of the Supreme Court Police, its in-house security force, and $13.6 million to let the court’s police take over the duties currently served by the Marshals Service of protecting the justices’ homes.Those proposed security-related expenditures help explain why the court is seeking to increase discretionary spending by about 21% to $146.3 million in the 2025 fiscal year over the prior year, according to the budget document. “Ongoing threat assessments indicate that there are evolving risks that require continuous protection,” according to the budget request.The rest of the judiciary is seeking $805.9 million for court security, citing “the significant increase in threats against federal judges.” Serious threats against federal judges rose to 457 in fiscal year 2023, from 224 in fiscal 2021, according to the U.S. Marshals Service.Last week, a Reuters investigation documented a sharp rise in threats and intimidation directed at judges who have been criticized by former President Donald Trump after ruling against his interests in cases they were hearing.The judiciary released its 2025 budget request even though Congress has yet to finalize funding for the government for the current fiscal year.Lawmakers last week passed the fourth stopgap measure since Oct. 1 to keep the government funded. Funding for part of the government will now run out on March 8 absent legislation and for other parts of the government including the judiciary on March 22.Congress in 2022 approved legislation to expand police protection to the families of the justices and senior officers of the court following the leak of a draft of the ruling overturning the Roe v. Wade decision that had legalized abortion nationwide. The draft and final ruling prompted protests outside the homes of members of the court’s 6-3 conservative majority. An armed California man was charged in 2022 with attempting to assassinate conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh after being arrested near his home. That man, Nicholas Roske, has pleaded not guilty.In December, a Florida man pleaded guilty to threatening to kill Chief Justice John Roberts. More

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Sharif, 72, officially took up office at a swearing-in ceremony at the presidential office in the nation’s capital, Islamabad, a day after parliament elected him prime minister despite protests from lawmakers aligned with jailed former premier Imran Khan.Sharif wore a black traditional overcoat, called a sherwani, in the ceremony, broadcast live on state TV and attended by civil, military, bureaucracy and other dignities.The Feb. 8 election was marred by a mobile internet shutdown, arrests and violence in its build-up and the unusually delayed results triggered accusations that the vote was rigged.Candidates backed by Khan gained the most seats but the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) agreed to form a coalition government. The PML-N is spearheaded by Shehbaz Sharif’s elder brother, three time premier Nawaz Sharif, but he decided not to take the prime minister’s post.The younger Sharif returns to the role he previously held until August, when parliament was dissolved to prepare for the election. Economists, investors and foreign capitals would now be watching closely for an announcement by Sharif on the cabinet, especially the important finance portfolio. The next finance minister will have to immediately undertake tough talks with the International Monetary Fund to get a new multi-billion dollar funding agreement, with the current one expiring in April.Former four-time finance minister Ishaq Dar remains the top contender, PML-N sources have told Reuters, though several other candidates were being seriously considered. More