Aurelia Butler

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The survey also highlighted that growth pessimism in Europe is still notable, with 62% of respondents expecting a weaker European economy as a result of monetary tightening. However, this represents a decline from the 83% who held this view last month. Notably, a net 37% of participants view global fiscal policy as overly supportive, which is close to a record high. In contrast, a mere net 3% consider Europe’s fiscal stance to be too restrictive.The outlook for the global economy among fund managers appears cautiously optimistic, with 65% predicting a soft landing as the most probable scenario. The proportion of those in the ‘no-landing’ camp, indicating no significant economic downturn or upturn, has risen to 19% from 7% last month.In terms of European equities, 78% of survey participants see potential for upside over the next twelve months, marking the highest level of optimism in two years. Despite this, after a strong rally since October, 51% foresee near-term downside for the market, down from 56% the previous month. The expectation for lower European Earnings Per Share (EPS) has also decreased markedly, with only 54% anticipating a drop due to slowing growth and subsiding inflation, compared to 75% last month.Finally, the survey indicates a growing optimism for European cyclicals, with 46% of investors expecting further upside relative to defensives, a sharp increase from 22% in the prior month. However, a plurality of 35% still expects further downside for European value stocks compared to growth stocks, influenced by dovish central banks, though this is down from 50% last month. Insurance remains the most favored sector for overweights in Europe, followed by technology and healthcare, despite a general optimism for cyclicals.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

KYIV (Reuters) – Ukraine could consider forgoing the European Union’s agrarian subsidies in exchange for an easing of the bloc’s Green Deal requirements during accession talks starting next month, a senior Ukrainian official told Reuters.Ukraine, which has a huge agrarian complex capable of feeding hundreds of millions of people, was invited to join the EU last year and will start sectoral talks on its accession in March to harmonise its legislation with EU requirements. Integrating Ukraine’s vast agricultural sector, which before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 was the world’s fourth-largest supplier of grain, into the European Union is likely to be highly sensitive, both politically and economically. Kyiv could be eligible for 96.5 billion euros ($103.95 billion) in subsidies from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy over seven years, if current rules are applied to an expanded union. However, the EU’s Green Deal, which sets out agricultural regulations for the bloc’s 27 members for decades, could make business more difficult for Ukrainian farmers than working without the subsidies provided by the bloc, the source said. “It seems to me that the ideal negotiating strategy (is to achieve) fewer restrictions on trade, fewer restrictions on the environment (for Ukrainian farmers) and we are willing to trade this for subsidies,” the official said.The official requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. A European Commission spokesperson didn’t immediately return a request for comment. AVOIDING RED TAPE”We must protect our competitiveness, we must not make bureaucracy that would stop development especially in our conditions – for example, to get ten environmental certificates for some small thing.”The agricultural sector is crucial for Ukraine’s battered wartime economy and pre-war in value terms grain accounted for half of all Ukrainian exports. Ukraine already sells a significant part of its farming produce to the EU and as a member its exports would not be subject to tariffs or quotas.The talks come at a sensitive time, with farmers across Europe taking to the streets in protest in recent weeks at the EU’s Green Deal regulations on animal welfare and pesticide use, as well as the need to leave 4% of farmland fallow.The subsidy payouts to Kyiv could also force cuts in farm subsidies to existing member states of about 20%, the Financial Times reported last autumn.The EU’s decision to waive import duties on all Ukrainian food in 2022 has already fueled protests in neighbouring bloc members as farmers struggle to compete with cheaper Ukrainian farm products. The European Commission last month said it would extend the suspension of its import duties on Ukrainian exports. But it also proposed measures to limit agricultural imports from Ukraine and offer greater flexibility on rules for fallow land in a bid to quell protests by angry farmers in France and other EU members.WITHOUT SUBSIDIES?Easing tough environmental regulations, new subsidies and lower taxes are the key demands set out by protesting European farmers, who believe that such steps will protect them from outside competitors like Ukraine. Many Ukrainian farmers believe that joining the union would give them access to large-scale subsidies, which would increase their harvest and bring in more income. However, some officials say the subsidies could conversely play against Ukraine.”I think it is a problem. Subsidies in agriculture very often play a bad role when they become a painkiller and you get used to them,” the official said.Ukrainian farmers could become less dynamic, the source said. “When you live in a system of subsidies, you are tied to them. If you have a subsidy for carrots, then only carrots will be planted,” he noted.($1 = 0.9283 euros) More

Don Farrell also told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) he would talk to Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao about the suspended death sentence given to Australian writer Yang Hengjun this month. Farrell said the Australian government was “appalled” by the conviction and sentence over espionage charges but that it should not derail relations between the two countries. Beijing has removed most of the trade barriers it imposed on Australian goods after Canberra called for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19. Restrictions remain only on wine, lobsters and meat from a small group of abattoirs. “The Australian Government continues to press for the removal of all remaining trade impediments affecting Australian exports to China,” Farrell said in a statement.”I look forward to continuing constructive dialogue with my Chinese counterpart, Minister Wang Wentao, at the World Trade Organization conference this month.”The WTO meeting in Abu Dhabi in the united Arab Emirates takes place from Feb. 26-29.Farrell told the ABC that if China does not remove its tariffs on Australian wine by March 31, when a review of them by Beijing is due to end, Canberra will renew its challenge against them at the WTO. “We will immediately resume our World Trade Organization dispute, and we’ve made that very clear to the Chinese authorities,” he said. On Yang, Farrell told the ABC: “The Australian government was appalled by the conviction and the penalty of Mr Yang, but we have embarked upon a project process of stabilising our relationship with the Chinese government. And we will continue that process.”Farrell’s office did not comment further. Calls to China’s commerce ministry and foreign ministry went unanswered as China is off for the Lunar New Year holiday. More

In the sleepy Midwestern town of Pataskala, Ohio, a 1mn sq ft factory built on former farmland is marked with a sign: Illuminate USA.The utilitarian building is due to start production this month as one of the largest solar panel manufacturers in the US. At full capacity the $600mn plant will employ more than 1,000 workers, giving a jolt to the economy of the rural community on the fringes of Columbus, the Ohio state capital. The factory is an example of the kind of project that President Joe Biden is touting as he campaigns for re-election, bringing manufacturing onshore while turning the US into a leader in technologies required to decarbonise energy systems. “When a company like Illuminate USA comes into our area, it really makes people think, ‘Wow this is amazing, this is great. Not only are these good paying jobs, it’s a job that I can feel good about,’” said Angela Carnahan of Ohio Means Jobs, an employment office. Not everyone is as excited. Illuminate USA is a joint venture between Invenergy, the largest private US renewables developer, and Longi, the world’s largest solar panel manufacturer. The latter partner has aroused local suspicions because it is based in China. “Pataskala is now infected with the cancer known as the Chinese Communist party,” Jerry Forns, a resident, said at a city council meeting in January. “Does anybody really think the CCP cares that this country was founded on Judeo-Christian principles?” A city council meeting last month in Pataskala, Ohio, where people expressed concerns about the Illuminate USA factory More