Aurelia Butler

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Australia’s central bank has cut the country’s economic growth forecast, citing the impact of higher interest rates and the prospect of a slowdown in Chinese consumption despite “encouraging” signs that inflation has started to ease. The Reserve Bank of Australia said its lower near-term projections reflected a weaker outlook for domestic spending. Governor Michele Bullock said controlling inflation remained a key RBA goal and refused to rule out further interest rate rises, although analysts and the bank’s own assumptions are factoring in rate cuts this year.“Grocery prices increased by 20 per cent over the past two years. That’s massive,” she said.Annual inflation dropped to 4.1 per cent in the December quarter, a sharp reduction from the 5.4 per cent recorded in the September period, and the RBA reduced its inflation forecasts as a result. Nonetheless inflation was not expected to return to the target range of 2-3 per cent before 2025, the bank said.The RBA cut its projection for gross domestic product growth to 1.3 per cent by June 2024, from 1.8 per cent forecast in November, and lowered its estimates out to 2025.Bullock said the forecasts also took into account an expected slowdown in China, after the bank warned that a “prolonged cyclical downturn” would pose a risk. Australia is a big commodities exporter to China, while education and tourism are also exposed to the health of the Asian economy, which has been hit by a downturn in the property sector.The bank’s press conference on Tuesday ushered in a new era for the RBA after a review of its operations last year triggered the biggest shake-up in its history. Bullock was appointed as governor last year.The RBA has new obligations to improve the transparency of its policymaking and is preparing to form a board dedicated to setting interest rates this year. It has also committed to addressing accusations that the bank was too hierarchical and that its board had not been challenged enough in its decision-making. Andrew Hauser, a 30-year Bank of England veteran, was appointed as Bullock’s deputy in December, and Sarah Hunter joined from Oxford Economics as the bank’s chief economist last month.Paul Bloxham, chief economist with HSBC Australia and a former RBA official, said the review had triggered a lot of procedural change at the central bank, but its core inflation target and rate-setting tools remained the same. “There is more process change than fundamental change,” he said.Nonetheless, the move to hold press conferences afforded Bullock an opportunity to explain the bank’s approach in less technical terms than in its formal statements.She used the example of demand for tickets for Taylor Swift’s Australian tour this month as an example of how high service-sector inflation was affecting consumer behaviour.“People are deciding what’s important to them and what’s not important to them and clearly for a lot of people Taylor Swift is very important,” she said. More

SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia’s central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday but cautioned that a further increase could not be ruled out given inflation was still too high, a strong signal that it isn’t in a hurry to start easing policy anytime soon.The relatively hawkish tone of the central bank’s statement boosted the Australian dollar and saw futures push out the likely timing of a first easing to September from August.. Wrapping up its first policy meeting of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%, but left the door open to another rise if needed.Markets had wagered heavily on a steady outcome given inflation had eased by more than expected in the fourth quarter, but the RBA statement indicated it was still not confident that inflation was on a sustainable path towards its 2%-3% target.”While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high… The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range,” said the RBA Board in a statement.The central bank did trim its forecasts for inflation and economic growth but emphasised demand was still running ahead of supply, suggesting it would be in no rush to cut rates.The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6512, having hit an 11-week low of $0.6469 overnight. Three-year bond futures were down 5 ticks to 96.3 and markets moved to price in the first cut will come in September, from August before the RBA statement.RATE RISKS BALANCEDThe RBA has jacked up interest rates by 425 basis points since May 2022 to tame stubbornly high inflation. While inflation fell to a two-year low of 4.1% in the fourth quarter and some distance from the 2022 peak of 7.8%, it is still well above target. All the same, the economy has slowed to a crawl, the red-hot labour market has started to loosen and consumer spending remained soft amid cost of living pressures and high mortgage rates. RBA Governor Michele Bullock, in her first press conference under a new reporting system for the rate decision, said the bank’s board needed to be convinced that inflation was moving sustainably to target before thinking about rate cuts. “We haven’t ruled anything out and we haven’t ruled anything in… The optionality here really needs to be maintained because we need to be driven by the data.”CBA’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said he does not expect the RBA to act on its hiking bias, tipping a first rate cut to come in September. “It will take more than just weak economic growth for the RBA to entertain the idea of policy easing,” he added.”The unemployment rate will likely need to rise a little more quickly than the RBA anticipates and inflation will need to fall a little faster, and we expect both of those outcomes to transpire.”The RBA is following several other central banks in resisting pressure for early cuts. Economic resilience and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary have recently led investors to push back the start of U.S. easing from March to June.”We doubt that the (RBA) Board are even thinking about rate cuts yet,” said Luci Ellis, chief economist at Westpac and a former RBA official. “We continue to expect the RBA to reach this level of comfort around September.” More

BANGKOK (Reuters) -On the eve of a Thai central bank meeting expected to leave interest rates unchanged at a decade high, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin called again on Tuesday for a cut in borrowing costs to revive economic growth.The prime minister, who is also the finance minister, has been at loggerheads with the central bank over the direction of monetary policy, arguing the economy needed support and inflation was not a threat.”If there is a crisis or something happens, it can still be reduced a lot. Why don’t we start doing it today?” he said, warning that after four straight months of falling consumer prices, the country faced the risk of deflation.Inflation is below the lower end of the central bank’s target range, so even if interest rates were cut from their current level of 2.50% to 2.25%, there would be “a lot of room” for further cuts, he told reporters.Despite the pressure, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at a scheduled review on Wednesday, a Reuters poll showed.BOT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput recently told Reuters that monetary policy was “broadly neutral” and the economy was not in crisis.Srettha said fiscal and monetary policy must work together to help revive Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which he has described as in crisis.”I believe we still can work together,” he said, referring to the central bank.Srettha – a real estate mogul and political newcomer – has repeatedly said the economy needs a big boost and his government will forge ahead with a controversial $14 billion handout scheme, though it might be delayed, pending more consultation.The so-called “digital wallet” scheme would transfer 10,000 baht ($280) each to 50 million Thais to spend in six months, but has been hounded by concerns over how it will be funded, with some experts calling it fiscally irresponsible.Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat said on Monday the government would meet to discuss the handout scheme next week and was sticking with the current plan for now.It will also push for a borrowing bill to finance the programme, he said. ($1 = 35.64 baht) More

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan can retain its decade-old blueprint focusing on efforts to beat deflation even if the central bank were to phase out its massive stimulus with an end to negative interest rates, said the government’s chief economist Tomoko Hayashi.Under pressure by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to take bolder steps to beat deflation, the Bank of Japan signed a joint statement with the government in 2013 and committed itself to achieve its 2% inflation target “at the earliest date possible.”The pledge has served as the backbone of former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s radical monetary stimulus and justification for keeping Japan’s interest rates ultra-low.Some analysts say the statement has become out of sync as inflation has stayed above 2% for well over a year, prodding the BOJ to contemplate a near-term end to its negative rate policy.Hayashi countered the view, saying that any such shift in BOJ policy would not alter the importance of its 2% inflation target, and the need for the government and central bank to coordinate policies to avert a return to deflation.”The importance of this statement, which called for the need to end deflation and achieve sustainable growth, will not change,” Hayashi told Reuters in an interview on Monday.”The current framework, under which the BOJ guides monetary policy with the aim of achieving its 2% inflation target, is something very important for the government and the public.”Hayashi was involved in the drafting of the joint statement as a senior Cabinet Office official. As director-general of its Economic Research Bureau, she currently briefs Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regularly on economic developments.Revising the statement, a move considered by some in the government last year, could affect BOJ decisions by re-defining its role and that of the government, and policy priorities.Shortly after Kishida appointed Kazuo Ueda as BOJ governor last year, the two said they had no plan to amend the joint statement for the time being.When asked about the statement, Kishida told parliament on Tuesday the government and BOJ must “always communicate closely” about the roles they must play in revitalising the economy.”The government is taking steps to end deflation and achieve structural, stable wage rises accompanied by moderate inflation, so that a virtuous economic cycle is revived,” Kishida said. “I hope the BOJ takes the government’s economic policy into account in making monetary policy decisions.”Another factor that may affect the BOJ’s exit timing is how soon the government will officially declare an end to deflation.”To declare that Japan is permanently out of deflation, we need to ensure that Japan is no longer in a state of deflation, and that it won’t revert to deflation,” Hayashi said. “The latter is difficult to judge, so we’re looking at various data.”Kishida has made economic revitalisation his top priority and stressed the need to push up wages to help households weather rising living costs. Critics say declaring a permanent end to deflation would help him win political scores.”If this year’s wage growth exceeds that of last year, we’ll likely see a positive wage-inflation cycle kick off in Japan,” Hayashi said. “We’re now seeing a golden opportunity open up to put a permanent end to deflation.”Since becoming BOJ governor in April last year, Ueda has begun dismantling his predecessor’s stimulus starting with a tweak to a controversial bond yield control. His recent hawkish signs have heightened market expectations of an end to negative rates by April. More

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The market’s stubborn hopes of a first cut to US interest rates in March were finally crushed over the past week by strong economic data and firm messaging from Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve. Beyond next month, however, traders have a different outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy than officials inside the US central bank. The divergence sets the stage for volatility and potential losses if the Fed sticks with its plans. US interest rates have been perched at a 23-year high since the Fed undertook an aggressive campaign to rein in inflation. When and how fast it begins to lower them from their current level of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent has been a fixation for investors across financial markets. Powell reiterated on a television show over the weekend that central bankers saw three cuts as their baseline scenario this year, the same message conveyed in the Fed’s closely watched “dot plot” projections issued in December. But since December, traders in the futures market have only slightly pulled back their expectations — pricing in five cuts over the course of the Fed’s seven remaining meetings this year, instead of a more optimistic six cuts. And bets on cuts happening earlier have been very hard to shake. Until last week traders were putting better than even chances on a cut in March. It took a definitive statement from Powell in the press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week — March was not the Fed’s “base case” — followed by a surprisingly strong US jobs report on Friday and his statements on the 60 Minutes news programme to bring the odds down to 20 per cent today.“We’re slowly coming into line with the Fed,” said Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. “There was a sense in December that the market could push the Fed to cut sooner. But the data hasn’t co-operated with the market. The data has not been weak enough to pressure the Fed to cut early.”“Markets finally started listening to Powell after the jobs number on Friday,” Desai said.Bond markets have swung dramatically in the past four trading days, recording their biggest daily moves in months, as investors have grasped that March is likely to come and go without a rate cut. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which moves with interest rate expectations, on Friday rose 0.16 percentage points after the payrolls report, which showed employers added 353,000 jobs in January. The yield rose again on Monday to 4.48 per cent, its highest level in a month. More swings like that may be in store if the market is forced to adjust to the Fed’s view. After hitting a four-month low in January, the ICE BofA Move index, which maps expectations of volatility in the Treasury market, has ticked up in February as rate expectations have changed.US stocks, meanwhile, rose to all-time highs on Friday after the strong jobs report, before dipping on Monday. But anticipation of more cuts than the Fed is expecting could also be bolstering prices.Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services, said: “The market is craving the sugar high from additional policy stimulus, but that doesn’t mean they’ll get it. It sets the stage for a choppy first half.”The persistent tension between what the market is pricing and what the Fed is signalling on interest rate policy has also made it more challenging for corporate borrowers to map out funding plans in advance, fuelling a wave of opportunistic borrowing.A sharp rally across financial markets at the end of last year created a relatively benign backdrop for companies in the first few weeks of 2024, leading to record January US investment-grade bond issuance, along with significant volumes for junk-rated names. Market participants noted companies were choosing to issue debt while the going was good — with demand high because many investors had been starved of new supply for months and had cash on the sidelines.Torsten Sløk, chief economist at investment firm Apollo, said: “I think corporates both in investment grade and high-yield [and in] loans view this as ‘Take it while you can get it’ — and in January, it turned out to be a good idea.”However, highlighting the increasing challenges of timing such issuance, Sløk added that “the question after the [labour market] data on Friday is whether that window is closing”.Calvin Tse, head of Americas macro strategy at BNP Paribas, said he does not believe the current gap between the Fed officials’ and the market’s expectations of rate cuts is significant. Traders in the futures market are betting on a range of possible outcomes, while Fed officials are making more precise forecasts. But Tse’s outlook does diverge significantly from the Fed’s. Tse believes the Fed will start reducing interest rates in May and continue to cut by 0.25 percentage points at each of the five subsequent meetings this year. That’s because he expects inflation to slow dramatically this year, and the Fed will be forced to adjust policy accordingly.Tse said: “If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, and inflation comes down as much as we think it will, that would mean policy was becoming more restrictive. And Powell has already said that policy is sufficiently restrictive.” More

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.China’s national chip champions expect to make next-generation smartphone processors as early as this year, despite US efforts to restrict their development of advanced technologies.The country’s biggest chipmaker SMIC has put together new semiconductor production lines in Shanghai, according to two people familiar with the move, to mass produce the chips designed by technology giant Huawei. That plan supports Beijing’s goals of chip self-sufficiency, with President Joe Biden’s administration tightening export restrictions for advanced chipmaking equipment in October, citing national security concerns. The US has also been working with the Netherlands and Japan to block China’s access to the latest chip tools, such as machines from the Dutch maker ASML.According to two people with knowledge of the plans, SMIC is aiming to use its existing stock of US and Dutch-made equipment to produce more-miniaturised 5-nanometre chips. The production line will make Kirin chips designed by Huawei’s HiSilicon unit and destined for new versions of its premium smartphones.While 5nm chips remain a generation behind the current cutting-edge 3nm ones, the move would show China’s semiconductor industry is still making gradual progress, despite US export controls.“With the new 5nm node, Huawei is well on track to upgrade its new flagship handset and data centre chips,” said one person familiar with the plans.Huawei had surprised the industry and analysts with its advances when its Mate 60 Pro premium smartphone launched in August featuring a 7nm processor. The phone helped it to increase shipments in China by nearly 50 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to Canalys research, as it proved a big hit with consumers.If production is judged successful enough for smartphones, Huawei’s most powerful artificial intelligence processor, the Ascend 920, will also be produced at 5nm by SMIC, the two people said, narrowing the gap between China’s alternative AI chips and Nvidia’s highly sought-after graphics processing units. Meanwhile, SMIC has increased its current 7nm production capacity to make more Kirin chips and AI GPUs, said two people familiar with the matter. Huawei’s 7nm Ascend 910b chip is considered by analysts and industry experts to be among the most promising alternatives to Nvidia’s market-leading AI processors.The move to create more advanced chips has incurred additional costs, however. Three people close to Chinese chip companies said that SMIC was having to charge 40 to 50 per cent more for products from its 5nm and 7nm fabrication nodes than Taiwan’s TSMC does at the same nodes. However, SMIC’s yield — the number of chips considered good enough to ship to customers — is also less than one-third of TSMC’s.“Could this be just a demonstration by Huawei and SMIC to show the Chinese government it can be done?” said Douglas Fuller, an expert on China’s semiconductor industry. “If money is no object, then it might happen.”Huawei declined to comment. SMIC did not respond to a request for comment.The 7nm and 5nm chip fabrication lines comprise US machines stockpiled by SMIC before it was hit by the restrictions. Its fab also boasts ASML lithography machines shipped last year. The Dutch government recently revoked an export licence for some of the most advanced machines, which has blocked ASML from selling to China.“SMIC is facing a more significant roadblock for production expansion after the US and its alliance tightened export restrictions on advanced chipmaking gear,” said one person close to the company.“Still, the fate of China’s chip industry and its technological development in the coming years will depend on these production lines by SMIC.”Video: The race for semiconductor supremacy | FT Film More

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The writer is co-head of investment and group chief investment officer at SchrodersEquity markets have largely made a strong start to 2024 as investors rushed to price in a monetary policy pivot — in the form of anticipated rate cuts — from central banks. That has left valuations looking stretched across asset classes.But it is already clear that 2024 will bring many different events that will lead to a reshuffling of the pack of investment opportunities.Some of these events are already clearly marked on investors’ calendars, such as the many elections taking place around the world this year — most notably the US presidential election on November 5. Other events are less foreseeable, such as the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and subsequent reaction from western nations. We do not know how current epicentres of conflict will evolve; whether they will become more entrenched, for example, or draw in more participants. Overall, it makes for a complicated, and at times alarming, environment for investors to navigate. It’s important to remember, though, that not all the events of 2024 will be significant from a financial market perspective. The US presidential election is clearly one where the stakes are high, but that’s not the case for every poll.A practical approach for investors is to focus on understanding how divergent policies and events — financial and geopolitical — give rise to different risks and opportunities.Let’s take fixed income. The global economy is still in slowdown, which should be a benign environment for bonds, but we need to keep an eye on the long end of the yield curve as the US election approaches. Thanks to the dollar’s status as reserve currency, America has had the luxury of being able to run a large deficit. But signs of fiscal profligacy from candidates may push the patience of markets too far and could result in higher volatility for longer-dated bonds.Europe, by contrast, has run more conservative fiscal policies. This is supportive of the bloc’s bonds.Again, in emerging markets many countries have run orthodox monetary policies that now leave their debt markets in a good place. We are quite positive on local currency emerging market debt.Equities have not moved as quickly as bonds to incorporate rate-cut expectations. While equity valuations have risen, they are not at extreme levels. Much of the move last year was concentrated in the so-called Magnificent Seven large-cap US stocks — and even these are underpinned by earnings. There may be scope for equities to move up further.This will be particularly relevant to investors currently holding cash. Our recent analysis, looking at data from 22 rate-cutting cycles stretching back to 1929, has found that the average return for US equities has been 11 per cent in the 12 months following the first US rate cut.If we do get the “soft landing” of slowdown but not recession, that should be supportive for equities. The question comes back to divergence: will those gains spread out to neglected areas of the market, including undervalued regions such as the UK?China continues to face a growth problem as it copes with the ramifications of its property crisis, and while the outcome of the US election could bring significant changes for markets, we don’t think a shift in stance towards China will be one of them. The current protectionist tilt and race for technological supremacy is likely to remain intact regardless of who wins.This weaker economic picture for China, and slowdown in the global economy more generally, does not create a bullish backdrop for commodities. But a strategic allocation to commodities can still make sense as a diversifier, especially in the context of intensifying geopolitical strains. One area of commodities where the outlook does look positive is gold. It typically performs well in periods when central banks cut rates.For the dollar, an about turn in the consensus around early rate cuts could result in near-term strength versus other currencies.Ultimately, the main thing is to remain invested in order to take advantage of these diverging opportunities as they emerge. It’s a truism as old as the hills but well worth saying again: there is a temptation during periods of uncertainty, noise and alarming headlines to seek “safety” on the sidelines. And unlike much of the past decade, it is now possible to obtain an attractive nominal return on cash. But, even if US rate cuts aren’t as imminent as some may hope, cash rates are still likely to come down, making cash less of a winner. At the same time, market moves can play out very rapidly. A position on the sidelines could mean missing out. More

The following is a chronology of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate moves since 1990. Each move is measured in basis points (bp), which are one-hundredths of a percentage point.Nov 7 2023 Up 25 bp to 4.35Jun 6 2023 Up 25 bp to 4.10 May 2 2023 Up 25 bp to 3.85Mar 7 2023 Up 25 bp to 3.60Feb 7 2023 Up 25 bp to 3.35Dec 6 2022 Up 25 bp to 3.10 Nov 1 2022 Up 25 bp to 2.85 Oct 4 2022 Up 25 bp to 2.60Sep 6 2022 Up 50 bp to 2.35 Aug 2 2022 Up 50 bp to 1.85 Jul 5 2022 Up 50 bp to 1.35Jun 7 2022 Up 50 bp to 0.85 May 3 2022 Up 25 bp to 0.35Nov 3 2020 Down 15 bp to 0.10 Mar 19 2020 Down 25 bp to 0.25Mar 3 2020 Down 25 bp to 0.50Oct 1 2019 Down 25 bp to 0.75 Jul 2 2019 Down 25 bp to 1.00Jun 4 2019 Down 25 bp to 1.25Aug 2 2016 Down 25 bp to 1.50 May 3 2016 Down 25 bp to 1.75 May 5 2015 Down 25 bp to 2.00 Feb 3 2015 Down 25 bp to 2.25 Aug 6 2013 Down 25 bp to 2.50 May 7 2013 Down 25 bp to 2.75 Dec 4 2012 Down 25 bp to 3.00Oct 2 2012 Down 25 bp to 3.25 Jun 5 2012 Down 25 bp to 3.50 May 1 2012 Down 50 bp to 3.75 Dec 6 2011 Down 25 bp to 4.25 Nov 1 2011 Down 25 bp to 4.50 Nov 2 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.75 May 4 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.50 Apr 6 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.25 Mar 2 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.00 Dec 1 2009 Up 25 bp to 3.75 Nov 3 2009 Up 25 bp to 3.50 Oct 6 2009 Up 25 bp to 3.25 Apr 7 2009 Down 25 bp to 3.00 Feb 3 2009 Down 100 bp to 3.25 Dec 2 2008 Down 100 bp to 4.25 Nov 4 2008 Down 75 bp to 5.25 Oct 7 2008 Down 100 bp to 6.00 Sep 2 2008 Down 25 bp to 7.00 Mar 4 2008 Up 25 bp to 7.25 Feb 5 2008 Up 25 bp to 7.00 Nov 7 2007 Up 25 bp to 6.75 Aug 8 2007 Up 25 bp to 6.50 Nov 8 2006 Up 25 bp to 6.25 Aug 2 2006 Up 25 bp to 6.00 May 3 2006 Up 25 bp to 5.75 Mar 2 2005 Up 25 bp to 5.50 Dec 3 2003 Up 25 bp to 5.25 Nov 5 2003 Up 25 bp to 5.00 June 5 2002 Up 25 bp to 4.75 May 8 2002 Up 25 bp to 4.50 Dec 5 2001 Down 25 bp to 4.25 Oct 3 2001 Down 25 bp to 4.50 Sept 5 2001 Down 25 bp to 4.75 Apr 4 2001 Down 50 bp to 5.0 Mar 7 2001 Down 25 bp to 5.5 Feb 7 2001 Down 50 bp to 5.75 Aug 2 2000 Up 25 bp to 6.25 May 3 2000 Up 25 bp to 6.0 Apr 5 2000 Up 25 bp to 5.75 Feb 2 2000 Up 50 bp to 5.5 Nov 3 1999 Up 25 bp to 5.0 Dec 2 1998 Down 25 bp to 4.75 Jul 30 1997 Down 50 bp to 5.0 May 23 1997 Down 50 bp to 5.5 Dec 11 1996 Down 50 bp to 6.0 Nov 6 1996 Down 50 bp to 6.5 Jul 31 1996 Down 50 bp to 7.0 Dec 14 1994 Up 100 bp to 7.5 Oct 24 1994 Up 100 bp to 6.5 Aug 17 1994 Up 75 bp to 5.5 Jul 30 1993 Down 50 bp to 4.75 Mar 23 1993 Down 50 bp to 5.25 Jul 8 1992 Down 75 bp to 5.75 May 6 1992 Down 100 bp to 6.5 Jan 8 1992 Down 100 bp to 7.5 Nov 6 1991 Down 100 bp to 8.5 Sep 3 1991 Down 100 bp to 9.5 May 16 1991 Down 100 bp to 10.5 Apr 4 1991 Down 50 bp to 11.5 Dec 18 1990 Down 100 bp to 12.0 Oct 15 1990 Down 100 bp to 13.0 Aug 2 1990 Down 100 bp to 14.0 Apr 4 1990 Down 100-150bp to 15.0 to 15.5 Feb 15 1990 Down 50 bp to 16.5 to 17.0 Jan 23 1990 Down 50-100bp to 17.0 to 17.5 More